Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[p0peji]

I was wondering, every Chinese exchange gets their bank acocunts closed, but BTC-China does not have that problem at all? 

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[podyx]

putting bid orders on 440

[Post-Cosmic]

 Martingale is viable for pure gambling games, but in trading, where you can specify your odds w/ even more control, it becomes a gloriously sound strategy, actually. Trade reasonably small, 1) It worked? Ok, pocket your gains quickly, but not too quickly, and next time around, Take the same small trade, do NOT take bigger trade (reinvest gains) because then that's REVERSE Martingale - BEST way to lose $$ and precisely why I've been failing in forex, BTC & stocks since 2005. 2) It failed? Ah, then take the loss, & next time, take an even BIGGER trade. This is because, not only you have a bit less chance to fail twice in a row than fail just once, but the odds are even better than 50/50 now that price is further close to oversold/overbought & thus a better place to take your new position from.

 Of course all this implies you're being contrarian. Which means, to focus on buying low, selling high, (Ranging) being safe about things & getting the hell out of your trades soon as you got moderate gains to pocket, instead of trying to ride longer-term trends (Trending).

 See, many small, intelligently placed/managed, compounding gains over time, is better than just 1 big risky trade that tries to ride the trend long-term. Unless you're unleveraged. My advice here is for leveraged BTC/LTC & FX. This is because :

1] You don't know where the price really will go in any but the shortest relative timeframes, it simply gets too hard to account for every factor in the world, the longer you try making projections ;
2] Added to that is the exponentially (? or linear..?) increased risk every hour/day that yet another round of bad rumors/news will unexpectedly come out of nowhere & skew all your projections ;
3] There is so much more money to be made riding as much ups & downs as possible (safely, not all the way for each candle/whatnot - nobody except the biggest insider cheat could predict that accurately and thus it just means you'll get crushing losses sooner or later) than there is to be made just riding allllll the years-long way until new ATH/ATL or near it.

 It's absolutely true that most traders lose money. That's because it's difficult to trade profitably on a consistent basis. So of course most fail. That suits the people in power/behind the curtain, financial freedom on a mass scale would make populations much harder to herd & control/govern. In addition, it benefits greatly whale investors, manipulating institutions, and market-making brokers, that pocket all those losses & spreads from their poor bad traders.

 It's a fight. I'm boxing against my broker. In BFX, I box against other traders' perceptions of price movements & their projections. Is competition bad..?? Isn't it a valuable, fun thing to fight..?? Are all sports, races, games, etc all stupid & useless because 'most players/racers will lose'..??  The entire point is that even though a small few win, ALL had the possibility of a fair chance to win (as long as they do their homework & stack the odds in their own favor) - and THAT is valuable in itself.

 That's why trading is valid. Doesn't mean hodling is bad. It's pretty sound actually. One can easily do both. Doesn't mean all traders have to be degenerate gamblers or that no one ever can have the skill to profitably trade. It's proven wrong.

[y3804]

I was wondering, every Chinese exchange gets their bank acocunts closed, but BTC-China does not have that problem at all?  

Wrong. Their deposit channels have gone from 4 options to 1 option. They simply don't like posting about it.

Again, banks ban is already priced in. Most exchanges are developing and investing in ATMs

[p0peji]

I was wondering, every Chinese exchange gets their bank acocunts closed, but BTC-China does not have that problem at all?  

Wrong. Their deposit channels have gone from 4 options to 1 option. They simply don't like posting about it.

I mention this because Bobby Lee keeps saying that it is just business as usual for BTC-China. So you think that they will get away with just creating ATMs? BTW that BS ATM of BTC-China can only be used to buy BTC and not withdraw, how awesome is that?

[windjc]

Bear market is not back on until (if) 1D crosses down.

 

[TERA]

I was wondering, every Chinese exchange gets their bank acocunts closed, but BTC-China does not have that problem at all?  

Wrong. Their deposit channels have gone from 4 options to 1 option. They simply don't like posting about it.

I mention this because Bobby Leed keeps saying that it is just business as usual for BTC-China

Everytime Bobby Lee says something, it is something extremely bullish, no matter what. Do you notice a pattern?

[Dalmar]

Dat BTC-e volatility.  

[windjc]

Bears are very one dimensional and suffer from tunnel vision - any move down instantly proves that everything before was a "big bull trap", its going to the new lows every time when 4h macd goes down, etc etc

No. No one knows which way we are going. I could list 10+ really good reasons we never left the bear market. But we could be at 600 tomorrow anyway.

That's why looking at the MACD by itself is stupid and useless.

[y3804]

I was wondering, every Chinese exchange gets their bank acocunts closed, but BTC-China does not have that problem at all?  

Wrong. Their deposit channels have gone from 4 options to 1 option. They simply don't like posting about it.

I mention this because Bobby Lee keeps saying that it is just business as usual for BTC-China. So you think that they will get away with just creating ATMs? BTW that BS ATM of BTC-China can only be used to buy BTC and not withdraw, how awesome is that?

Everything's been priced in already. While it's another banks ban, I wouldn't worry about today's news. I would worry if the must cancel bank transfers completely. Deposits/withdrawals still working all-around for now

Long term it doesn't look good at all, but short-term it will stay stable around $450+

[TERA]

btce is like "I should dump $20 lower than everyone else just incase this time it's the end of bitcoin"

[Tyson95]

I have the worst time knowing when to cut a loss with a trade. What do some of you guys set up a stop loss at?

[dreamspark]

This dip right before a bank holiday in Europe with no fresh fiat means the next four days could get ugly. Might have to put my temporary bear hat on.

[magicmexican]

btce is like "I should dump $20 lower than everyone else just incase this time it's the end of bitcoin"

Thats how they roll, and when the panic buying starts, they are ahead

[windjc]

This dip right before a bank holiday in Europe with no fresh fiat means the next four days could get ugly. Might have to put my temporary bear hat on.

Never understimate the ability of Houbi to rise on hot air. It doesnt need fiat.

[TERA]

I have the worst time knowing when to cut a loss with a trade. What do some of you guys set up a stop loss at?

The key is to open your trade at the right point with the right indicators to begin with and then you will almost never be faced with a situation where you have to 'stop loss' because there will be all kinds of bounces on the way back to your entry point before the indicator you entered on reverses.

[chessnut]

I have the worst time knowing when to cut a loss with a trade. What do some of you guys set up a stop loss at?

depends where you got in and what your expectations are. everybody has a different style. if you took my stop level (i dont use stops) you might get into trouble.

[niothor]

Let me guess .. the dip is again based on some chinese story?
Is this the chinese version of 1001 stories?

[podyx]

Let me guess .. the dip is again based on some chinese story?
Is this the chinese version of 1001 stories?

[y3804]

Let me guess .. the dip is again based on some chinese story?
Is this the chinese version of 1001 stories?

Market correction + China ban. I wouldn't worry about it. Anything over $480 is really good imo