Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

TERA, who admittedly does not do well unless there is a raging bull cycle, is telling people to do more of what he does.

When I say I'm not doing well what I mean is that I'm only increasing my net worth by 4% per week instead of 50% per week. In the post you are referring to, I was pointing out that it would be more efficient if I simply waited for the bull market instead of trading for peanuts during the bear market, to give me a break and let me focus on other things in life.

[1714785284]

1714785284

[1714785284]

1714785284

[1714785284]

1714785284

[windjc]

Everyone just shut up and trade. Thank the Chinese for all this magnificient volatility and profit making opportunities. It's not like you don't get ample TA indicators to tell to buy and sell when the trend is changing. The candle didn't just go straight down to 700 to 340 or straight up from 340 to 540 or straight down thereafter and then just die at the new level. No. There are ample bounces, indicators, and opportunities. You have hours to realize the 1H MACD is going down and then days to realize the 4H and 1D are going down before most of the damage is gone. But instead of paying attention you sit there in some state of denial complaining about how chinese shouldn't be able to control the trend. You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing. "but... but... it's just china fud. the west should control bitcoin". Well that's too bad. You just have to accept reality and roll with the punches.

Spoken like a true bear turned bull 36 hours ago and $55 higher.

Reasons why I felt bullish the other day:

1. A 3D MACD cross seemed inevitable (you bought into the hype - emotion)
2. There were giant surges in altcoins. (hype - other peoples emotions, trying to catch a bottom)
3. It broke the linear downtrend line on bitstamp and the logarithmic downtrend line on huobi. (no confirmation)
4. A major support level had been broken only to fall $40
5. It bounced all the way back into the middle of the previous trading zone's range, indicating weakness in the downtrend.
6. De-patterning from the 2011 crash due to #4 and #5 (there were rallys in 2011)
7. There were 3 large daily up candles in a row, which hadn't occured since January (we were grossly oversold)
8. All of the Chinese bank shutdowns might have in fact been a hoax (tin foil hat)

Now I realize that none of these are confirmations that a bull market has begun. However, it does make me much less bearish than earlier when I thought we were mimicking a 2011-like crash and heading to $180.

[billyjoeallen]

Everyone just shut up and trade. Thank the Chinese for all this magnificient volatility and profit making opportunities. It's not like you don't get ample TA indicators to tell to buy and sell when the trend is changing. The candle didn't just go straight down to 700 to 340 or straight up from 340 to 540 or straight down thereafter and then just die at the new level. No. There are ample bounces, indicators, and opportunities. You have hours to realize the 1H MACD is going down and then days to realize the 4H and 1D are going down before most of the damage is gone. But instead of paying attention you sit there in some state of denial complaining about how chinese shouldn't be able to control the trend. You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing. "but... but... it's just china fud. the west should control bitcoin". Well that's too bad. You just have to accept reality and roll with the punches.

I do accept reality, including the reality that I'm just not good enough to trade this, T. We're not as skilled at this as you are, at least I'm not. That's why we're not shutting up.
Take your own advice or give us some more help.  I have to wait for the market to sink significantly lower or just wave it goodbye as it goes farther out of reach. I feel dumb and it's pissing me off.

I was positioned at $427 before you were by a day, but that head-fake dump to $400 threw me off. How did you know to jump in at the same time I jumped out?? It had nothing to do with the 1 hr, 4 HR or 1 day MACD, and it happened in minutes.

[m3g4tr0n]

[TERA]

Everyone just shut up and trade. Thank the Chinese for all this magnificient volatility and profit making opportunities. It's not like you don't get ample TA indicators to tell to buy and sell when the trend is changing. The candle didn't just go straight down to 700 to 340 or straight up from 340 to 540 or straight down thereafter and then just die at the new level. No. There are ample bounces, indicators, and opportunities. You have hours to realize the 1H MACD is going down and then days to realize the 4H and 1D are going down before most of the damage is gone. But instead of paying attention you sit there in some state of denial complaining about how chinese shouldn't be able to control the trend. You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing. "but... but... it's just china fud. the west should control bitcoin". Well that's too bad. You just have to accept reality and roll with the punches.

I do accept reality, including the reality that I'm just not good enough to trade this, T. We're not as skilled at this as you are, at least I'm not. That's why we're not shutting up.
Take your own advice or give us some more help.  I have to wait for the market to sink significantly lower or just wave it goodbye as it goes farther out of reach. I feel dumb and it's pissing me off.

I was positioned at $427 before you were by a day, but that head-fake dump to $400 threw me off. How did you know to jump in at the same time I jumped out?? It had nothing to do with the 1 hr, 4 HR or 1 day MACD, and it happened in minutes.

Here was my 425 long entry. It did not coincide with any particular MACD cross at that exact time - I cannot always rely on MACD all the time and sometimes I have to react to sudden unsual breakouts by entering on their retracements. In this case, the 1 hour MACD had gone up at $415 about 6 hours ago, but I did not want to enter then because it looked like 4 hour MACD was going down. I think the candle was even just barely red right before this breakout. Then suddenly there is a huge break upwards on high volume. So I look look for the first retracement to enter on, which was at $425.

[akujin]

U guys should just shut up and sell... jejeje 

[macsga]

Nice CCMF projection... only about 200,000 BTC needed. Someone seek for Karpeles!

[chessnut]

Nothing driving this market, no bulls, no bears. imma come back another time.

[GameStarter]

if we keep holding at this level it appear to be very bullish. We have a standard consolidation after a 60% rally, maccd 2H retracement, rsi 6H down to 4.4.  China defend 3000 support several times.  

it seems EV+ to enter now with a good risk reward, cut the loss if China break 3000.

[TERA]

the sideways market of doom

[ShroomsKit]

if we keep holding at this level it appear to be very bullish. We have a standard consolidation after a 60% rally, maccd 2H retracement, rsi 6H down to 4.4.  China defend 3000 support several times.  

it seems EV+ to enter now with a good risk reward, cut the loss if China break 3000.

 

[podyx]

Got my bid orders at $432, is this too low??

maybe 448 is better

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[magicmexican]

Got my bid orders at $432, is this too low??

maybe 448 is better

I think 440-450 is good, but 460~ is safer play

[blatchcorn]

Got my bid orders at $432, is this too low??

maybe 448 is better

I think 440-450 is good, but 460~ is safer play

I don't see the price going any lower than $480 really.  There is so much resistance between here and $432 anwyay

[isov]

Finally got myself up to doing registration for Bitstamp, took me less than 36hours to get signed up and verified even my request was denied once. Good job Bitstamp!

[billyjoeallen]

Here was my 425 long entry. It did not coincide with any particular MACD cross at that exact time - I cannot always rely on MACD all the time. sometimes I have to react to sudden unsual breakouts by entering on their retracements. In this case, the 1 hour MACD had gone up at $415 about 6 hours ago, but I did not want to enter then because it looked like 4 hour MACD was going down. I think the candle was even just barely red right before this breakout. Then suddenly there is a huge break upwards on high volume. So I look look for the first retracement to enter on, which was at $425.

So how did you know not to react to the unusual move DOWN that immediately preceded it?  That evaporation of bid side orders followed by dumping was just as unexpected, wasn't it?

[p0peji]

Got my bid orders at $432, is this too low??

maybe 448 is better

I think 440-450 is good, but 460~ is safer play

I don't see the price going any lower than $480 really.  There is so much resistance between here and $432 anwyay

The things is in this market you dont know how fast a bid or an ask order is going to be removed, so order books really only tell 5% of the whole tale.

[chessnut]

Got my bid orders at $432, is this too low??

maybe 448 is better

if not 450-460, then 410. thats my take. if 432 gets filled it might leave you high and dry.

[mmitech]

I don't know if we will go lower than 450 (if we go lower at all), instead I think there might be a rally soon ...