Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

@windjc I believe you have been vindicated by the market action, nice call on the volume importance.

However I played my first game of golf this year...arm is killinggggggg but the market is up 20 bucks from the tee off, So I got that going for me.

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[windjc]

Here's a rare call from moi,

I made a call after the early 2013 $250 spike for something testing the $30-is 2011 highs, and I made this call after the initial post-spike low ($60-ish)?  I was dead wrong.  That call was based mainly on my read of sentiment and my judgement of 'capitulation'.  That is, we saw nowhere near the level of hopelessness that I expected, and my expectation was as someone who was around in late 2011 and watching things fairly closely...being one of the few who was still putting skin in the game...and blathering on about doing so publicly...

My current quasi-call is based more one the global supply/demand balance which tends to seem (to me) to be the most reliable indicator, with the caveat that I mostly look at the public data from a single exchange (and switched from Mt. Gox to Stamp.)  I, nor most others here, have visibility into the dark pool type markets which are very likely a huge and growing part of the equation.

My call is that we are not out of the woods yet.  I'm anticipating sub-$200 prices an at least one more down-leg and probably several.  I've been wholly fooled by this indicator in the past, but it still remains my most reliable indicator.  Hopefully I am wrong in this call as I was in 2013.

I do hope that there is a recover and at least one more spike artifact.  In fact my 'hope' is closer than an 'expectation' than I've ever been so far.  The fundamentals which I base this hope on are associated with the growing recognition that Bitcoin could serve as a logical 'reserve' and 'balancing' solution and the growing interest in 'sidechain' work with the likes of Adam Back applying his efforts to the problem.  Also, of course, that it Bitcoin proper has still not been undercut yet in spite of the best efforts of core dev to make it susceptible to a wider variety of failure modes (e.g., x509 and associated centralization problems and such.)

I am torn between two competing factors in my mind. Technically, this bear market looks a lot more like the extreme 2011 than anything in 2012 or 2013.

However, fundamentally we are so far beyond 2011 its hard to compare the two. However, having said that, the difference between $2 low and a $200 low is also very different.

So I still slightly lean towards a more 2011 scenario. Although, I think the fundamentals may keep it from being a severe or as long for sure. We saw what 1 country (China) could do to the market.  There are many reasons to think similar things are on the horizon over the next 12 months - albeit the later part of that period.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

little choice left from a bullish EW point of view. wither up or down   - critical levels though. Im looong 484.

Well cant fault you for not being stubborn.  

[Davyd05]

http://qz.com/200602/china-just-revealed-a-major-state-secret-nearly-20-of-its-farmland-is-polluted/

China has much bigger problems than capital flight from bitcoin.

[KeyserSoze]

My call is that we are not out of the woods yet.  I'm anticipating sub-$200 prices an at least one more down-leg and probably several.

My only real concern is that if we see sub-$266 it could shake some old timers up. We could see innovation stagnation. It could really send us into an extended bear market.

We're already in a lopsided situation where although more and more merchants are accepting BTC yet we don't seem to have many consumers on board. Bitcoin has pretty obvious negatives for consumers, who just want "safe and easy." I imagine "safe and easy" is in the pipeline, but of course the problem is it is my imagination only.

My hope is Twitter incorporates it as a tipping mechanism. Much more than Amazon, this to me would signify massive exposure within a highly appropriate use case (just as Reddit's tipbots). That would be a base from which it could explode into ecommerce because of popularity and familiarity, even though personally I do not see Bitcoin as a great payment system for ecommerce at this time.

[Davyd05]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c36UNSoJenI&feature=youtu.be&t=2s but this is why Bitcoin can't be stopped.

[cbutters]

Key TA: Second Batman is higher than the first.... Batman Rising.. Bat Signal... Looks like we are going up.


Also this:

[KeyserSoze]

http://qz.com/200602/china-just-revealed-a-major-state-secret-nearly-20-of-its-farmland-is-polluted/
China has much bigger problems than capital flight from bitcoin.

Is it news China is a cesspool? I mean people are pointing at the multi-million dollar face mask industry because folks feel that industry, of all things, isn't doing enough to stop the pollution they have to live in. That's absurd.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/25/us-china-mask-pollution-idUSBREA2O0GI20140325

As Sam Kinison once screamed about US Aid for Africa:
If you want to stop world hunger stop sending food to starving people in Africa. Don't send them another bite. Send them a U-haul instead. Send luggage. Send them a guy to tell them they wouldn't starve if they lived where food grows. You understand? You live in a fucking desert! Of course you're going to starve! Nothing grows out here! Nothing's GOING to grow out here! You see this... this is sand, yeah, sand, see? Know what it'll be in a hundred years? SAND!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA

[KeyserSoze]

Key TA: Second Batman is higher than the first.... Batman Rising.. Bat Signal... Looks like we are going up.

To the Bat Cave!

[adamstgBit]

 


i'm back buy Buy BUY!!

 

[strawbs]

i'm back buy Buy BUY!!

 

Defrosted by hot air?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

i'm back buy Buy BUY!!

 

Defrosted by hot air?

lol

ya somethin like that

[adamstgBit]

just got back from vacation, a few hours ago, didn't have a chance to watch price for like 7 days, feels weird being on a computer again.

[adamstgBit]

i sold some at the bottom.....
i should have known it was gonna boces back and put in orders...
but i had a hell of a bill to pay 

[adamstgBit]

if you see some profits i recommend selling and then selling some more, make sure to hit my bids, thanks. 

[BitAddict]

if you see some profits i recommend selling and then selling some more, make sure to hit my bids, thanks. 

 

[solex]

I made a call after the early 2013 $250 spike for something testing the $30-is 2011 highs, and I made this call after the initial post-spike low ($60-ish)?

Interesting analysis, however I believe that the 2011 $31 peak was retested but it occurred before the $266 spike. The retest was during the mid-March 2013 chain fork which saw a sharp correction from $48. This is visible on the 3D but lost in the 1W chart.

Similarly, the $266 peak was retested on Nov 10th, visible on the 1D but not the 3D. There was an "air-gap" left in the mid $300s which has largely been filled by the recent dip to $339.

[kurious]

Welcome back, Adam - you were sorely missed.