Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

Sometimes I think that the sentiment this thread rules the market.

Lack of fresh fiat rules the market. Maybe if we continue down slowly for the next 3 weeks, perma bulls will finally admit this.

Maybe sometime after that we can get a real final capitulation.

all this gr8 stuff is happening surrounding bitcoin, time to capitulate!

no.

[adamstgBit]

stand up and take back the power!

BUY BUY BUY!!

[Hpotsirc]

Looks like that 12h MacD does not fuck around, i wonder if 450 will hold

Could someone please explain this whole MacD stuff for us newbies? Thanks.

MACD is one of the most commonly known indicators. You can find a lot about it searching the web.
You can enable it on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd under settings. The basic logic behind this is the following: MACD crosses up (turns from red to green) -> buy, MACD crosses down (turns from green to red) -> sell. This doesn't work very well on lower timeframes but can work on higher timeframes even though there are a lot of better indicators than that one. Anyway its still always useful to have an eye on it since quite a lot of people trade using it.

[oda.krell]

[...]

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction"  I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist.

It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight.

Actually, I'm not saying we're going down for sure. Imagine the following 4 near term (> 1 day, < 1 month) scenarios, and how likely you think they are: sudden & sharp move up, sudden & sharp move down, slow grind down, slow grind up.

Personally I consider the sudden move down more likely than the sudden move up (because right now it looks like 500 is more resistance than support, so if at all, whales will get nervous holding rather than missing the train).

But more likely than any sudden and big move is, imo, a slower move in either direction. I guess we both agree on that (since you mention "slow and painful"). My point is, I can see a continued slow grind down, (and consider it slightly more likely right now), but I am well prepared to admit a slow grind up if we finally find some buying support.

[KeyserSoze]

Looks like that 12h MacD does not fuck around, i wonder if 450 will hold

Could someone please explain this whole MacD stuff for us newbies? Thanks.

There's a cool new app out for your phone called Google.

[magicmexican]

I think its actually for sure that we will see fat red candles at least to 465, and a good chance lower all the way to 440'ish.

Another scenario is more sideway/slightly down action and then a sudden green candle, but chances are no more than 25% imo

[running_lady]

intresting that stamp & btce not following chineese exchanges at this moment

[windjc]

[...]

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction"  I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist.

It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight.

Actually, I'm not saying we're going down for sure. Imagine the following 4 near term (> 1 day, < 1 month) scenarios, and how likely you think they are: sudden & sharp move up, sudden & sharp move down, slow grind down, slow grind up.

Personally I consider the sudden move down more likely than the sudden move up (because right now it looks like 500 is more resistance than support, so if at all, whales will get nervous holding rather than missing the train).

But more likely than any sudden and big move is, imo, a slower move in either direction. I guess we both agree on that (since you mention "slow and painful"). My point is, I can see a continued slow grind down, (and consider it slightly more likely right now), but I am well prepared to admit a slow grind up if we finally find some buying support.

Well it looks like slow grind down is the most likely as that is what we are seeing. In fact its what we saw in march and with the exception of 2 fat green candles its all we've seen since 547 too.

I think some more fat green candles are also likely, meaning 3 steps down and 2 steps up kind of action with the slow grind happening to make its way down again each time.

I think fat red candles are also possible, if fear starts to creep back into the market. But the market seems so much more bullish than it did even in March in some ways. So it may take us a while for fear to come back. Even on this board everyone is so cheerful. And our bearish trolls haven't even been around. Why? Because they're long. LOL!

Slow grind up? This would surprise me.  Because that would only come if we were actually in a bullish market. But without some fat green candles coming from somewhere, then we are still in a bear market. So we would need some sign of reversal first.

[NewLiberty]

Surely if we continue dropping we will hit a point where all the bulls will start mass buying and hopefully drive the price back up.

Some people think that this is exactly what happens daily, minute by minute every day...

[oda.krell]

[...]

I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%).

What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all.

I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction"  I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist.

It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight.

Actually, I'm not saying we're going down for sure. Imagine the following 4 near term (> 1 day, < 1 month) scenarios, and how likely you think they are: sudden & sharp move up, sudden & sharp move down, slow grind down, slow grind up.

Personally I consider the sudden move down more likely than the sudden move up (because right now it looks like 500 is more resistance than support, so if at all, whales will get nervous holding rather than missing the train).

But more likely than any sudden and big move is, imo, a slower move in either direction. I guess we both agree on that (since you mention "slow and painful"). My point is, I can see a continued slow grind down, (and consider it slightly more likely right now), but I am well prepared to admit a slow grind up if we finally find some buying support.

Well it looks like slow grind down is the most likely as that is what we are seeing. In fact its what we saw in march and with the exception of 2 fat green candles its all we've seen since 547 too.

I think some more fat green candles are also likely, meaning 3 steps down and 2 steps up kind of action with the slow grind happening to make its way down again each time.

I think fat red candles are also possible, if fear starts to creep back into the market. But the market seems so much more bullish than it did even in March in some ways. So it may take us a while for fear to come back. Even on this board everyone is so cheerful. And our bearish trolls haven't even been around. Why? Because they're long. LOL!

Slow grind up? This would surprise me.  Because that would only come if we were actually in a bullish market. But without some fat green candles coming from somewhere, then we are still in a bear market. So we would need some sign of reversal first.

We probably see things very similar.

But I invite you to go back to July 2013 and look at volume and fibo levels in the first month after the bottom:

Observation 1: Volume was surprisingly lackluster

Observation 2: We saw a combination of a sharp move down (the dump on July 18th) and slow grind down (slipping through the fibo levels with little support at first).

(EDIT: the other way around, actually. Slipping through the first retracement level with little support, then the big dump (perhaps as a reaction to the former, by an overly cautious whale). After the dump, the reversal really started to form.)

Ultimately however, things turned around, without any drastic change, just that volume picked up a bit, and price found support (following July 18th), and suddenly we broke through the previous post-capitulation high (minimally below 100 on bitstamp) and from then on we were on track again. Kind of.

That's all I'm saying: I'm prepared to look for relatively subtle signs of a reversal, because in the past, that's all we got as well.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[blatchcorn]

2014 is one entire bear trap.  We will witness in December a spike that dwarfs the last one to just a tiny bump on the charts.

[oda.krell]

2014 is one entire bear trap.  We will witness in December a spike that dwarfs the last one to just a tiny bump on the charts.

Depends on your perspective. How was it "one entire bear trap" to sell at 995 in January and buy back more than twice as many coins at several points following 2014?

Your position probably is: hold now, or regret it later when we make a new ATH.

A competent trader's response would be: why does being short now have to be mutually exclusive with profiting from another ATH rally in the future?

[blatchcorn]

2014 is one entire bear trap.  We will witness in December a spike that dwarfs the last one to just a tiny bump on the charts.

Depends on your perspective. How was it "one entire bear trap" to sell at 995 in January and buy back more than twice as many coins at several points following 2014?

Your position probably is: hold now, or regret it later when we make a new ATH.

A competent trader's response would be: why does being short now have to be mutually exclusive with profiting from another ATH rally in the future?

That would be profiting from the bear trap, aka avoiding the bear trap by re-buying when it is low.

It still is a bear trap in the sense that weak hands have sold off their coins they bought in January and will miss out on the spike this September to $350k.

[JayJuanGee]

Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen.

I have never agreed with you more. This thread used to be my favorite thread on the forums, but it has turned into one of the worst troll hangouts I have ever seen. So many emotional, contradictory, uneducated, posts. Not saying that all posts are, but man there are a lot.

YOU made bad trades, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU incorrectly shorted bitcoin, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU made the decision to sell/buy that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU based your trading off of the shit that is talked in this thread, that is not the end of bitcoin nor is it bitcoins fault.
YOU'RE "Feelings" don't mean anything when it comes to bitcoin. So many posts start or end with "I feel like" "That's my feeling"
YOU are on this thread which means YOU do not poses insider information nor do I and we have limited knowledge of what the fu*k is actually happening. So posting "I heard", "I was just told", "I have info that" etc. means that whatever insider trading was/is going to happen has already happened because you are now aware of it.

Largely I agree with your above post - yet I do NOT recognize trolling as posters who may just have the wrong information.  I would define trolling as posters who may know better, but they are purposefully posting false information.

Sometimes posters use phrases, such as, that is my feeling b/c this is part of the speculation subsection of the forum.  S0, individuals act based on the information that they have at their disposal at the time they make their decision(s) about what to do next.  NOTHING wrong with that.

I guess my point is that I recognize trolling as deliberate - rather than mere confusion or misunderstanding or even sometimes being a victim of the bad information of trolls.

[JayJuanGee]

The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.

I remember you saying a while ago you wouldn't post much here (this forum, that is) anymore.

Guess the overwhelming demand of your loyal fans kept you here, huh?

Kind of. Because every day I get this kind of posts from people whom I have little or (generally) no prior interaction with. (date=today):

Hello,

Just wanted to say I appreciate your posts.

I read a while ago that you were planning to spend less time on this forum and more time in a new exclusive forum.

I hope that you do not leave bitcointalk behind totally, as I think it is very important to keep up a level of quality posts, even if people must search through more and more rubbish to find them. Like it or not, bitcointalk keeps growing as the reference for people wanting to join the bitcoin community and so the trolls and fools must not be allowed to take over.

It appears that with bitcoin coming under the mainstream spotlight, more of this low quality can be expected. But there is also perhaps even a more sinister element at play: trolls working on behalf of governments, seeking to sow FUD in the community. I know it may sound far-fetched and perhaps this might make you reach for the tin foil hat, but I read a very interesting article published recently regarding the leaking of a troll handbook created by the British secret service, which teaches professional internet trolls working for the organisation to discredit targets and sow discord. I cannot help believing that bitcointalk is currently host to this kind of influence.

Anyway, keep up the good work!  

I agree with XXX that you Rpietela provide good quality posts.  I have read through several of your past posts.    Yet I continue to wonder why this forum allows such quantity of trolling.  The forum does NOT need to allow everyone - especially those who seem to be purposefully spreading FUD

[KeyserSoze]

...I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake. ...

[oda.krell]

2014 is one entire bear trap.  We will witness in December a spike that dwarfs the last one to just a tiny bump on the charts.

Depends on your perspective. How was it "one entire bear trap" to sell at 995 in January and buy back more than twice as many coins at several points following 2014?

Your position probably is: hold now, or regret it later when we make a new ATH.

A competent trader's response would be: why does being short now have to be mutually exclusive with profiting from another ATH rally in the future?

That would be profiting from the bear trap, aka avoiding the bear trap by re-buying when it is low.

It still is a bear trap in the sense that weak hands have sold off their coins they bought in January and will miss out on the spike this September to $350k.

350k in September, huh?

Where have I heard that before...

Oh whatever. Some bulls in here are just hopeless :/

[Adrian-x]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??

 Seriously, merchants don't need to keep 'reserves' of 'BTC change' in their 'digital money registers' like stores do w/ fiat. They aren't interested in speculating in BTC future price rises either. They're in fact wary of it - they just want the extra potential sales & rep from bitcoiners. That's why they use services like BitPay. Payment re-processors such as BPay also are not interested in hoarding or buying crypto. They just facilitate things by accepting a cryptopayment from end users, dumping it at market (or pretty fast in any case), giving the merchant their proceeds in fiat & keeping their cut in fiat.

 Those customers, the end-users of all these crypto-friendly merchants & services. THEY are the ones implyingly expected to cause higher prices, by buying moar BTC now that they can shop at a greater variety of places w/ it. But who are the vast majority of cryptocustomers..?? ..BITCOINERS. Enthusiasts. Folks who -already- had their stash & don't mind spending out a little of it here & there. Whatever extra BTC they may buy to shop with will be compensated by what they spend - given that the merchants & payment processors will be dumping the BTC thusly received as payment.

 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

Bitcoin's value comes from the ability to store wealth in a socialised distributed systems the benefits spread akin to a virus with each resulting fever an order of magnitude greater than the last. This current trend is part of the distribution cycle.

I don't think you are missing anything, a lot of this investment is assuming Bitcoin is a currency, when most probably it's a store of wealth once the store of wealth has matured its value as a currency will materialize, it is my view the current focus is creating an artificial stimulus the results will be mal-investment and Bitcoin will naturally accumulate at the correct time and price in the most appropriate proponents.  So this sideways movement could go on for a long time, who knows.

 

[adamstgBit]

350k in September

now you're starting to make sense