Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

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[AlcoHoDL]

.....

You missed an intermediate bet ($4). Yes, Joe will eventually win exactly $1. The problem is that the bets increase exponentially, and this can quickly bankrupt him in case of a long losing streak.

It's called Martingale. More here:

Martingale (betting system)

But assume random Joe is rich to begin with.  
So that the odds of black coming up enough times in a row to bankrupt him are astronomically small.
He just keeps going till he's up.
Then starts again with that one dollar. rinse and repeat.
I've heard when high rollers try this strategy, the house shuts them down after they are down and a betting limit has been reached.
So yeah, it doesn't work. What a surprise... lol

(fixed that 4$ bet.. I noticed that too right after posting ...)

Or, rich Joe can start off with a $10 bet, thus winning $10, then rinse-repeat. On a ten-fold losing streak (unlikely, but possible), he would have lost just over $10000 and he would then have to bet another $10000 to recover his losses (and eventually end up winning only $10).

Although tempting, it is mathematically proven that the odds are against him on average.

To quote Ace Rothstein (Robert De Niro) in Casino (1995): "We're the only winners. The players don't stand a chance."

[AlcoHoDL]

The bear on the bench,
Made me keep my Bitcoin Cash,
Until I saw sense.

You mean picnic table bear?

[...]

That's the bear! 

[philipma1957]

....
I never thought about bitcoin as a gamble, but I did consider it a risky bet initially, less so now with all that happened.
Never played scratch tickets, but sometimes buy a ticket when lottery is over a billion...don't know why, really, lol.

Gambling in Vegas is typically not for me either...but I have a funny story about it...many many years back, on my first and the last trip there, in my first game, I put a quarter in the machine and it gave me a royal flush-$250 worth of tokens. I spent some time in the next couple of days (was there on some symposium) gambling away about 2/3 of it in small games, but still went back with almost $100 of free money in my pocket.

Good times...but too much light everywhere.

Reminds me of this "fun fact?"...

Imagine Random Joe goes into the casino and decides to play the roulette wheel until he is up using this simple method...
He bets a dollar on red  (50/50 or thereabouts .The house has a slight edge of course as O is neither red nor black)
and loses when black comes up. He's down a dollar.  He then doubles up and bets red , loses again, down 3 dollars (he's unlucky apparently) so he doubles up again
and bets  $4 on red and finally! Red comes up!  After all, red comes up almost 50% of the time. Joe is now up 1 dollar! (I think, do the math, lol)
Joe now pockets the  dollar walks away and never enters a casino again. That's pretty feasible yes? (well maybe not, most folks gamble away all their "house money" and then some and the casino wins in the end, lol)
But now lets imagine there are a hundred different random joes walking into a casino and doing the exact same thing,
i.e., betting one dollar on the red and doubling up until they win, going up whatever amount, and walk out,
never to walk into or gamble in a casino again. Collectively they would be up one hundred times the amount they each won, lets say for arguments sake, $100.
Ok, now lets take this one more step and just say they are all the same Random Joe. Random Joe is up $100 dollars! (For that matter, you could scale it up any amount)
This leads to the obvious conclusion that random Joe can always win.... right?  
Can anyone point out the fallacy in this scenario because I cant. I even put it to the test years ago and walked out of the casino up 5 dollars. True story.

 

5 blacks in a row and where is his bet?
6 black in a row and where is his bet?

what you need to do is.

1
2
4
8        quit if you lose and never play again. Then do the math for the

1
2
4 bettor he wins a dollar

1
2 better he wins a dollar

1 better he wins a dollar

 3 ways to win a dollar means up 3



but the loser  drops 15


I am lazy and can show the break downs if I want to , but easy peasy the one guy that maxes out and loses.Ends up killing it for the all the 1 dollar winners.

[sirazimuth]

.....

You missed an intermediate bet ($4). Yes, Joe will eventually win exactly $1. The problem is that the bets increase exponentially, and this can quickly bankrupt him in case of a long losing streak.

It's called Martingale. More here:

Martingale (betting system)

But assume random Joe is rich to begin with.  
So that the odds of black coming up enough times in a row to bankrupt him are astronomically small.
He just keeps going till he's up.
Then starts again with that one dollar. rinse and repeat.
I've heard when high rollers try this strategy, the house shuts them down after they are down and a betting limit has been reached.
So yeah, it doesn't work. What a surprise... lol

(fixed that 4$ bet.. I noticed that too right after posting ...)

Or, rich Joe can start off with a $10 bet, thus winning $10, then rinse-repeat. On a ten-fold losing streak (unlikely, but possible), he would have lost just over $10000 and he would then have to bet another $10000 to recover his losses (and eventually end up winning only $10).

Although tempting, it is mathematically proven that the odds are against him on average.

To quote Ace Rothstein (Robert De Niro) in Casino (1995): "We're the only winners. The players don't stand a chance."

I remember years ago when my dear old late Dad told me this "strategy", I couldn't for the life of me figure out why it wouldn't work with say just a few dollars.
As mentioned above, I did do it on my last visit to a casino like 30 years ago, and walked away with 5$ or something. Of course in order to be up that $5, I had to
end my gambling fun right then and there, forever, which of course I didn't do, that's no fun. I promptly lost it all in the slots...After all, it was just house money, man!
Admittedly, I probably lost more trying to win it back. Yup, the house always wins...lol.  (unless you are a card counter, but then you just get kicked out, if recognized)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=no1c6rWw0co

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[SamReomo]

The bear on the bench,
Made me keep my Bitcoin Cash,
Until I saw sense.

You mean picnic table bear?  

Gosh he can be persuasive.

[edited out]

If I'm not wrong then we are still at least 10-14 months away from the next bull run. Although, the halving event will take within next 7-8 months but still the bull run may need some more time to start. I'm in firm belief that history will repeat itself once again this time.

Of course, no bull run is guaranteed, but when they do end up happening, there does seem to tend to be a kind of rampening up of the process in such a way that it starts out slowly and then gets to be more and more and more, but sometimes even those kinds of rampening ups can become unclear.. take the April to June 2019 run for example... so the UPs and downs can sometimes play out weirdly... or in such a way that the pattern, if any, is not completely clear.

If we end up with a bullrun this time, then surely it will end up becoming easier to explain it after it happens, and I am not even saying that the explanations that will end up coming out will be consistent, and surely some explanations are more believable than others... .

Sometimes it might not be that important to explain why bitcoin did what it did, even though some people seem to have better ideas regarding what it did than others, so that likely gives better ideas for where we might be going too.. .even though many of us recognize and appreciate that ONLY so much weight can be given to historical price movements in regards to being able to get some ideas for what might be in store in the future.. .and surely dangerous to be putting too many eggs (or hopes) into one basket (one view of what might end up happening, when it hasn't happened, yet).  

I highly agree with you that the bull run isn't a guaranteed event but it's our expectations that it will happen. Yeah, in the initial stage the bull run starts with slow pumps but over time it gets more intense. I also agree that sometimes we really can't detect the initial stages of a bull run because the ups and downs are so unpredictable in the initial stages. I believe this time something will also trigger the bull run to intense levels. The previous bull run began its intense levels in November-December 2019 and initially it started around April to June 2019 like you said.

Yes, if we see the next bull run then it will be easier for us to say something about it. But, surely someone of the expectations will be met once the bull run starts. I believe that this bull run will help Bitcoin and the whole crypto-market if it happens.

Those who have good ideas about Bitcoin and its price levels are among the learned ones I guess because they really know the importance of Bitcoin and appreciate every move of Bitcoin with positive mindset. The Bitcoin has made history for first time when its price went to $1k plus in 2013 ATH, and it made history again when its price went to $19k plus during 2017 ATH, and it made history once again when its price went to $68k plus during 2022 ATH, and now it will make another history when its price moves to ATH in next 2 years with intense bull run. I expect that in October-December 2025 Bitcoin's ATH will take place. I may be wrong but my expectations are really positive about it.

[eXPHorizon]

Freaking awesome.

How awesome Gold Rush is and how Gold produces the Great people.. unlike this wtf this Bljatcoin is sopposed to be.. some digital liquid shit

Gold folks are so freaking legendary !

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Freaking awesome.

How awesome Gold Rush is and how Gold produces the Great people.. unlike this wtf this Bljatcoin is sopposed to be.. some digital liquid shit

Gold folks are so freaking legendary !

lol. What? Bljatcoin? Is that a typo or is this a new crazy slang term that’s hitting the streets?

I can understand why you would stay that gold folks are legendary as gold has historically been pretty coveted amongst mankind, but I would also assume that there is significant overlap between gold hoarders and Blijatcoiners.

[ivomm]

What is happening? Sunday pump? Why? 

[xhomerx10]

What is happening? Sunday pump? Why? 

US gov't shutdown crisis has been averted.  The money printer continues to go brrrr
Go bitcoin go!

[Bitcoin_people]

Bull market comming 🚀 BTC
$28000
HODL BTC

[bitcoinPsycho]

What is happening? Sunday pump? Why?  

This
Thank you Torque

It never fails.

Every time I have to sell a little bit to pay some bills, a nice big green candle happens a few days later.

You're welcome.

[cryptjh]

https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1707647220814696569

[Biodom]

pumping bitcoin high
what a great way to restart
the bull run again

# haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

This is Europe Right now.



Where does it go from here? 🤔

[Richy_T]

It's called Martingale.

/thread

There's not really much more to add after that. It's been so thoroughly debunked there can be no further discussion or argument on its effectiveness.