they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic. This feels so 2015 (OCT went up 33%) I think the miner relief rally happens this month just like it did in 2015.
or maybe not
Probably not.
BTC price gives no shits about miners... and miners have to figure out if they are going to mine or not mine.. that is the question, even if some of them might end up getting reckt along the way.. which for sure is part of the process and there is no dire problem that is even close to anything that you seem to be inferring as problematic..and maybe the BTC price will go up and maybe it won't.. doesn't really matter too much in the whole scheme of things.
By the way, there mere fact that there might be a lot of miners driving up the hashrate and therefore driving themselves into needing prices to go up is likely a product of their own making.. and sure, let them get reckt if they have not configured their operations in such a way to protect their lil selfies.. and furthermore, if you ever heard of the difficulty adjustment. we could lose 90% of the miners and probably still be o.k... even if there could be some dire scenarios that anyone might point out, I have my doubts that the difficulty adjustment is not going to take care of any fluctuation that might have to happen to hashpower if it happens that the BTC price does not end up going up as fast as some of the miners may have had been betting (speculating)...
[edited out]
[edited out... current mining cost calculations]
this is like t/a. but based on mining numbers. it is a bit more accurate then t/a as it is less subject to interpretation.
but in 2019 to 2020 it did not happen so i toss it due to covid .
i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
Even if your various numbers are correct, it's a BIG so fucking what in terms of what the BTC price is going to do. Miners have to react to price, not the other way around.
Which also does not mean that the BTC price won't go up to $1million or whatver in this cycle or even in the coming year or so, but BTC's price's going up or down is not based on how much hash power has been put into it.
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?
i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
Or November, December-same thing, probably.
$40-45K for halving sounds like a very reasonable price.
Even though the miners would not be very profitable at those numbers post halving, they could still withhold selling mined bitcoin for a few months while causing more appreciation in the interim.
They were doing this around each halving, imho.
High provability that we can see big movements this coming November, to many people will start to save their bitcoin since they speculate to earn huge for this upcoming halving.
Also for sure miners will hold their mined bitcoins since most of them know the situation and they could earn more compare is they sell some early or some good changes happen in the market.
$40k-$50k sounds fair and reachable but for sure all want to see a new ATH recorded at that event.
There still is no guarantee price will go up and sometimes it takes several months after the halvening for the actual effects of the physical reduction of BTC new supply is uncontrollably felt and no longer able to keep such bad boy down.
Sure, there is also a chance that new ATH's are reached on or before the halvening and even higher than Adam Back's prediction price (of $100k). The odds are probably not high for that kind of scenario, but king daddy likely gives few shits about odds... when it sometimes might get stubborn about doing what it wants to do.
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