Looks like $36k is this cycle's Vegeta price.
$36000 / 4 = $9000
Coincidence? Probably.
Hopefully, he's already dead. Again.
in that case next cycle ATH might be at 4x 69k = 276k... I'd say that's acceptable..
Definitely. I'd be more than happy with a 4x gain every Halving. Some (most?) of us here would call that extremely conservative, borderline bear-talk. Saylor would suggest a doubling / year, which is 16x / Halving. In an ideal world, maybe. In the real world (China, pandemic, Ukraine, Israel, FTX, SEC, AI destroying the world, etc.), 4x / Halving (i.e., sqrt(2) = 1.4x / year)
seems quite reasonable (to me at least), and more than any other investment can provide.I surely am questioning if 4x every 4 years is really sustainable into the future. which seems that it would be a doubling every two years. Surely we are seeing a lessening of the rate of increase, and spot price does not seem to be the place to be making those kinds of measures.. and look at the actual numbers that put into my
entry-level fuck you chart that show the changes in 6-month increments. I did not have that actual data in there before, and I just updated it on November 23rd.
I am not even saying that the pattern of two years up two years down has to be exactly repeatable into the future, but we should be trying to be somewhat reasonable in terms of not expecting a different pattern unless it actually starts to show on the chart and yeah there could be some blow-out upside results, but they are not even closed to guaranteed to happen even if they might have some decently good odds in favor of some short term grand-face-ripping breaks to the upside.
Part of the reason that I made my whole fuck you status chart even more conservative on November 23rd, and I could not even wait until the end of the month when the actual number for the 6 month period is realized (which is probably going to be around $29,051) is because my earlier chart (that I had already made more conservative with more of downwardly sloping upside curve rather than more of a straight-line upward curve is because it seems like both of my last two 6-month period had overshot by around 10% each time... that is a lot of overshooting for 6 months... so I personally would rather undershoot than overshoot...so in that regard, my adjustments are seeming to be more likely to be having to make the numbers higher every 6 month period rather than lower.
Think about each of the three last 6 month periods, they were each ONLY a bit over 10% if we were to average them out...
and maybe they were aberrations in regards to the crazy-ass shit that was contributing to BTC under performance in the last year and a half including the BTC price being extendedly below the 200-week moving average for quite a bit of the last 18 months... so in that regard, sure, I am more than willing to accept that overshooting in the opposite direction may well be likely, but still I don't think straight-line or graduating curve is going to capture the reality as well as the way I did my chart, even if I likely ended up lowballing my numbers a bit more than necessary based on my own desires not to be considered as someone who gets things wrong to the upside.. and I think that my numbers are still pretty bullish.. and especially if we end up having several overshoots, then we just end up adjusting as we go and maybe we adjust future numbers or maybe we just keep my numbers as conservative, even if there might be some short term bullishness in the numbers.
Actually 50% per year for the next one or two cycles seems more than reasonable even though they are higher than my current numbers.
Now that I am talking through some of this, I am feeling that I overdid my SOMA chart too much.. but still I think it is better to stick with it and maybe updated it if the next 1 to 2 six month periods start to show way higher than 15% to 16% numbers then I might update all of the numbers accordingly.. but I don't even feel like I am being wishy-washy about it because it seems to me just a matter of how much is the appreciation, and have always been more conservative in my personal expectations about BTC prices, so frequently even when we are doing shitty as fuck, I am thinking that we are doing way better than I expected, even though 2015 was a bit of a bummer and also having so much time below the 200-week moving average in the last 18 months was a bit of a bummer too. but still our past performance of even having the 200-week moving average to have been as high as it was - which still was probably getting pushed up from the 2017 performance and the lack of a drop in 2018 and the bullish bear year that we had in 2019.. and all of those factors surly pushed up the 200-week moving average by the time we got to 2021 less spectacular bull and 2022's ongoing revelations of scandals that have even been dragging into 2023. but none of us are complaining about 2023.
I'm conservative by nature, I tend to underestimate, and my post was just some very crude guesstimate on price progress, based on my personal experience (and the Vegeta part was Crystal Ball
TM material, and a fun justification for my $9k vs. $36k price point relation -- then & now). I don't disagree with anything you're saying above, which is an even more conservative viewpoint than mine. It makes sense to expect a slow-down in terms of Bitcoin price appreciation. I guess, this is partly the reason why PlanB's popular stock-to-flow model became quite problematic recently, to the point of being deemed a failure. The Bitcoin code may be open and exact and relatively easy to understand, analyze and model (4-year cycles, coin production halving / cycle, etc., etc.), but when it is coupled with the social/human element, it becomes a stochastic, even chaotic system, which can diverge in both the micro- and the macro-scale. Luckily (or, by good design), the underlying robustness of the code has shown time and time again that it is the dominant factor in Bitcoin's long-term performance, and this fact is one of the reasons why I'm very confident that we'll be seeing good things happening in the near future and beyond. Qualitatively speaking, I expect to see further price appreciation, worldwide adoption, ETFs, regulation (hopefully in a healthy way).
Quantitatively speaking, things aren't so easy to handle, unless you happen to be Merlin the Magician or Uri Geller. 2x, 1.4x, 1.1x / year are all fun to suggest and expect, and PlanB's S2F graph sure looked like a stairway to heaven, except that the steps ended up being somewhat shorter than expected, and log scale is brutal and can bite you really hard... For someone who bought his/her coins at an average price of under $2,000 / coin, it would be super-greedy to even complain about Bitcoin's performance, as his/her profits would currently approach 20x in a time span of, let's say, 8 years. That's an average price appreciation of about 1.45x / year, which explains where my suggestion, in my post above, of 1.4x / year comes from. All this assumes a willingness to wait for at least one full cycle (two cycles in my numerical example), while accumulating (via lump sums or DCA, depending on fiat availability and/or preference). Again, this is not an exact science, but it is still science, and certainly much more science than stonks or other more traditional investments that allow for human/government intervention, manipulation, inside knowledge, etc.
My golden rule: "buy when you can, sell when you must." Has served me well, and has given me the needed time and patience to reach that 1.4x / per year. Will it slow down? Will it speed up? I can't say. What I know is that no one has ever lost by investing in Bitcoin, given sufficient maturity (at least one cycle). And that's that.
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