Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Aaah Homer he’s just craving for an unique hat….

[JayJuanGee]

[...] I feel it's just a chance for you guys to buy more who missed the 15K, 20K, 25K, 30K and waited for more dip.
[...]

It is time to get beyond MtGox for good, it gets a little old and annoying after 10+ years. So please forgive our sins holding coins on a playing cards exchange, and let's get it out of the way for a clean run to new ATH's.

Seconded.
We survived FTX, so Gox should be not much of an issue, in down terms.
Also, only idiots who get paid out in Bitcoin would sell, i guess there were far less of them in the old times...

I am pretty sure that there are very high levels of GOX coin claims that were sold to BIG businesses that would likely have different motivations than individuals... In the past, many of those entities were saying that they were going to sell a lot (if not all) of their BTC, but the BTC price has gone up another 10x to 20x since they were making those kinds of claims, so maybe they would not sell, and even for businesses, it could be risky to sell with an expectation to move the BTC price down and then to buy back at a lower price later, so they might not want to play with their coins in those kinds of ways, even if they might already be mandated (in some of the circumstances) to sell based on their wanting to realize profits from the price that they bought at versus the potential 100x or so that likely would come from some of the claims that they were buying when the BTC prices were well below $500, and they were not even paying the full value of the claim, so they might have been buying BTC for $300 per BTC or even less..,.

..so some of those entities are likely holding 10s of thousands of BTC, and may well already have guidelines of selling the coins. but still does not mean that the BTC price is going to drop in any meaningful way beyond perhaps some short-term blips, as you already suggested to compare to FTX (but also to compare with so many coins being thrown at the BTC market in 2022 with fear around things like Terra/Luna, Celsius, Voyager, 3AC, Blockfi, Genesis, Grayscale, FTX/Alameda and perhaps a few others.. even some of the Binance drama)... ... but still, the ability for the BTC market to end up absorbing any of those potential extra coins for sale?  Does not seem that BIG of a deal, and sure there can be attempts to take advantage of momentum.. but would that mean sell coins? or just wait to be able to buy coins, "if" such dips end up happening, whether they even do end up happening.

Ouch.

Ay Caramba! Whales Take Profit Making ETH and BTC dip creating a Bart Simpson Pattern And Liquidating A Lot of Shorts! What Comes Next?

Why would we give any shits about Ethereum in these here parts?

Possible market trend change? How about good old "BTC is down because people withdraw crypto to fiat to buy Xmas presents" ? That excuse always worked.

And then "crypto?"  Why do you want to talk about that?  to the extent that "crypto" means anything that might be related to topics of his thread?

I beg your pardon. I wanted to look smart, but I have failed.

That's true. hahahaha

 It does not tend to be a good idea to talk about shitcoins or vague references to crypto in this thread unless you are able to put it into some kind of potentially interesting context.. and I am having difficulties imagining any potentially interesting context .. unless you criticize the article for their talking about shitcoins, but even some of those kinds of superficial analysis don't necessarily play very well... and surely there are some mainstream articles might mostly be talking about bitcoin, but they are not using the word bitcoin, so sometimes it might be helpful to point out if an article might be largely about bitcoin even though it is referring to various shitcoins and also making vague references to shitcoins.

Many of us likely realize that there are quite a few interesting things going on in regards to bitcoin, but some of the earlier alerts to what is happening ends up coming through some publication that does not know how to use bitcoin in a sentence, and we still might want to break the news without necessarily getting trapped into the bad habits of "everyone else does it".. which surely is true.. there are a lot of smart people who seem incapable (or perhaps unwilling) to use the word bitcoin, which surely might end up causing us to wonder whether they actually know what they are talking about if they are unable to use the word bitcoin or they fill their sentences with other non-bitcoin descriptions and presume that they are still talking about bitcoin even though they are using vague language to supposedly accomplish such. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I was reading the last pages of the thread, and i want to make a mention.

When everybody talks about 100usd per week into investing in BTC, that its quite good and sustainable for first level countries, but in low income countries sadly if you dont catch the BTC in their very very early stages is difficult right now to accumulated some decent quantity.

You still gotta do what you can rather than getting distracted by the specific numbers that are used as an example.  You should be attempting to relate the concept, and surely there are some folks that are going to be struggling with $10 per week, and so they might have difficulties to either increase their income or to cut their expenses in order to get to higher amounts, but they still just have to figure out how much they can invest into bitcoin without going overboard in terms of their own budget.

Let's say that a person ONLY makes around $400 per month or maybe even less than that, and if they have abit of fluctuation in their income and expenses, but on average they are still figuring out ways to invest $10 per week into bitcoin which is about 10% of their income.

So if they are investing 10% of their income into bitcoin, it is still likely going to take them nearly 10 years to reach 100% of their salary saved up, so the extent to which their investment performs might affect where they are at in 10 years in regards to being better off with having had invested into bitcoin versus investing into other thing, versus consuming the $10 per week. 

People have choices, and they should not be deterred by the mere fact that they are not able to buy as much as others in order to still be able to recognize that they are more likely going to be more advantaged by investing into bitcoin versus not investing into bitcoin.

Also in second level countries like Brazil it can be so much money for the regular person. The other problem in very low countries was, in the very eraly stages of btc like 2010 until 2015 it was difficult also to buy BTC, because in some cases people doesnt have internet or even where to buy, and in a lot of countries the acces to foreign currency is difficult.

For sure, no one is saying that it is easy to figure out ways to get ahead in life, and there are people in the west who could easily afford $1k or more per week to invest into bitcoin, but they are not doing shit, and sure maybe the person in the 2nd level or 3rd level countries might not be able to completely catch up to the ones who have way higher incomes, but sometimes there are going to be comparables in which the one who consistently invests into bitcoin gets ahead after 10 to 20 years as compared to the one who is getting in much later.. and sometimes they will also be passing up people who had much more means than them, but the ones who failed to act end up falling behind, even if there may well be a lot of obstacles along the way and even if the income levels (and even information levels) might be very disparate. 

The person who invested $10 per week over the last 9 years ended up investing $4,700 and accumulating 3.6 BTC, and surely the person who is starting now is likely going to need to invest more than $200 per week and still may not be able to get to 1 BTC after 10 years... seems like there are advantages even with relatively poor people who get started early and attempt to be as aggressive as they are able to be without overdoing it.

Now that problems still exist b ut the market is much bigger than before and you have the opportunity to buy more easily, but now you cant buy so much with a very low income.

It still does not mean that you should not start to invest into bitcoin and/or to try to be as aggressive as you can, and hopefully, you do not get distracted into shitcoins and/or trading merely because your brain is telling you that you are disadvantaged and that you need to take shortcuts...

In the end, you can do what you like, but there seem to still be a lot of advantages with bitcoin and focusing on bitcoin as compared with other places that you might put your time, energies and value.. but those are your choices, including if you believe that there might be reason to put your value somewhere else or if you might want to divide (dilute) your time, energies and value because you are not able to see the value of bitcoin right in front of your face... including that there are a lot of advantages to poor people to even have anything that they are able to invest into with such potentially small amounts such as $10 per week and perhaps whether or not they are able to increase their weekly amounts by increasing their income and/or cutting their expenses.

Yet, on the other hand, you are making him look like a genius.

Are your daddies “geniuses”?
Because my Father in the Heavens is the Alpha and Omega.

Wow. 

You sound like a very important person.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Aaah Homer he’s just craving for an unique hat….

 I already made him a unique hat.  Only the first one is free

[goldkingcoiner]

Lol.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

Aaah Homer he’s just craving for an unique hat….

 I already made him a unique hat.  Only the first one is free

Hey, I just realized. Why are your hats not NFTs?

[Hueristic]

Aaah Homer he’s just craving for an unique hat….

 I already made him a unique hat.  Only the first one is free

Hey, I just realized. Why are your hats not NFTs?

Because this thread is not full of ETH tards?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

I cannot remember your exact story in terms of your bitcoin entry date, AlcoHoDL.. but I was thinking that maybe you were only a couple of years after me...[...]

August 2015 was my first transaction. Paid $120, got 0.5 BTC, left it in my phone, forgot about it. 3 months later it had become $200. I remember the market cap then was single-digit billions, maybe $5B (currently $800B -- 160x). I remember I was checking CoinMarketCap. Not even registered to BitcoinTalk. All purchases done via Bitcoin ATMs. No exchanges.

Great times...

So maybe we could say that even if you made a BTC purchase near the middle of 2015, you really were not engaging very much with the idea of bitcoin, so perhaps just taking a bit of a stake as a "let's see what happens," so then maybe you did not get lured into starting to study BTC until the end of 2015, so in essence yes, you got active in BTC around a couple of years after me, but I was largely trying to study bitcoin right from the start of my investing into it.. so I was active in other bitcoin-related threads before I came to this forum in late February 2014.

And, so it still seems that part of my point stands in which we might have some investment without very much conviction, and so our conviction grows over time, and yeah, maybe it is not exactly religious to throw some money at something, but there might be some perceptions of possible value that makes it greater than a 50/50 gamble, but then the more real points to show conviction still might have to do with deciding to become more aggressive about your bitcoin investment.

In my own self-assessment, I do consider that i was fairly aggressive right from the start, because I looked into bitcoin for maybe a couple of weeks prior to making my first purchase at the end of November and towards the exact then top, but then I also created a 6 month budget for myself and a plan to buy BTC every week for the next 26 weeks.. and then after those first 26 weeks to continue with a similar plan for the next 26 weeks, so that would then get me to a year of investing into BTC, which I would consider to be pretty aggressive but still within boundaries.. since by the time I got to the end of a year (2014 - a year of being in bitcoin), I figured that bitcoin had constituted about 10% of the total value of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and so in that regard, I was more aggressive than some of the guys that I call whimpy in these here parts, so level of faith and conviction can vary, and maye the extent to which there might be motivation to invest into something like bitcoin, but then there can be some stylistic matters that change mindsets between someone who is DCA'ing versus someone who is lump summing or buying on dips. .. and sure there can be overlap, but sometimes mindset can affect practice, but practice can also affect mindset.

We may or may not end up in similar places, because some people get distracted into shitcoins and have a lot of difficulties getting out of the shitcoin trap, and then there can be other aspects of a person's investment experience that might contribute towards looking at bitcoin compared to other investment possibilities in a certain kind of way.

[edited out]

JJG we did

Who is "we?" Do you have a rock in your pocket?  O.k. maybe that response was overly argumentative, but I could not resist.

50         +  0.05 =   50.05
25         +  0.05 =   25.05       this looks like a real true ½ ing to me
12.5      +  0.10 =   12.60          "     "   "       "     "
6.25      +  0.70 =     6.95         "        "

3.125     + 0.70 =    3.825        this looks almost like  a ½ ing

1.5625   + 0.70 =    2.2625         this is not what any ½ ing has ever looked like      4 years and 4 months from now
0.78125 + 0.70 =    1.48125       this is certainly far different than anything we have seen in terms of ½ ing

So my point is do we see unexpected changes in 2024 a different cycle pattern

We will certainly see them in 2028 as the ½ ing will not really be one

Well if you are attemtping to figure out what might happen right after 2024 halvening and/or between 2024 and 2028 and also after the 2028 halvening, then surely those are more potentially pressing speculations than some of your earlier speculations regarding what might happen in 2056 or 2140-ish.

2028 is not that far from today do other see this and plan to exit sooner than you predict? Or for that matter does this act to drive price up more than expected.

I doubt that we need to really get into analyzing those kinds of dynamics in order to consider that bitcoin is likely going to continue to be more and more valuable in the future, especially since it remains scarce and nothing about the various mining dynamics seem broken or disincentivizing the continued mining of bitcoin, even if there surely could be more and more flattening of the 4-year cycle, but why do we necessarily need to go into expectations of flattening of the 4-year cycle in any kind of profound way, prior to our actual ability to see such dyanamics of flattenening or disappearance of the 4-year cycle playing out.

Look at my entry-level fuck you status chart that currently goes to late 2074, and so you might have had been able to see that my previous versions attempted straight-line and diminishing return curves, which are largely projecting out entry-level fuck you status based on expected valuation of the 200-week moving average, but historically it looks like we have seen 2 years up and 2 years down in terms of the intensity in which the 200-week moving average had continued to go up, and even in our worst 18 months ever (between June 2022 and October 2023, in which BTC's spot price continued to stay below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time), we still barely even got below 10% increases in the 200-week moving average for each of the latest 6-month periods.

Surely at some point the 200-week moving average might go negative, but I am not going to assume such going negative until I see such a going negative, and it just seems a better presumption to continue with positive numbers and likely with continuing to expect some kind of a pattern of diminishing differences between the time that the 200-week moving average might be moving up versus when it might be moving down and maybe it just ends up into some kind of a straight line that might end up being between 4% and 8% per year with an average around 6%..?  and I even hate to speculate with that level of specificity, since it is likely that we will need to tweak these kinds of projections and expectations to attempt to line up with facts that develop.. and some aspects might be difficult to know what will happen but also what affects the future happenings will end up having on the price (in terms of the 200-week moving average if that might be a kind of bottom measurement that seems currently valid but also could become less valid in the future).  

In any event, I don't see any reason to tweak any of these kinds of dynamics based on nearly pure speculation and even missing several components that could affect other components, unless you want to propose your own version of something like what i had projected out that is based on decreased mining subsidies and higher percentage of fees.... which again, those are likely driving incentives to mine, but I doubt that those dynamics are driving other aspects of BTC price since BTC price likely has another considerable affect on the incentives for whether and/or how miners might choose to engage in such operations/occupation...   And, no problem that surely we are likely going to continue to end up with greater and greater flattening of some of the ingrained bitcoin price dynamics that are based on 4-year cycles.

the 2024 to 2028 time slot is truly "different" than any prior as there will not be a supply drop of great significance.

But it is all a BIG so what? if we are trying to talk about BTC price dynamics, and if you are frequently trying to suggest that hash rate is driving BTC prices.. and I am not sure what point you are wanting to make that is even needing to be speculated upon, since we largely agree BTC prices are going up.. but we might have differing ideas about by how much and whether any kind of cycle dynamics might continue which also might be a who cares aspect, unless you are trying to trade such price waves, which you have already admitted that you are way more into those kinds of selling too much on the way up and expecting to buy on the way down than me, and so maybe if you are questioning if the BTC price is going to go down, then maybe you will sell less than what you would have had sold otherwise, but I doubt that any of that affects me very much, since I just follow my system and it becomes a BIG so fucking what if the BTC price does not end up coming down.. I don't care either way, even though I hardly have any reason to believe that hype cycles are  not going to continue in something similar to a 4-year pattern, even if they might not be exactly materially driven by new supply constraint dynamics.

No you don't see what I see. Look at this chart. It is not typical

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

No you don't see what I see. Look at this chart. It is not typical

What is it that you see that I don't see?  

yes, I use that same website to monitor mempool backup and also what levels of fees are clearing,

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,all,weight

and yes, the onchain transaction fees have gone up in the last year, partly based on ordinals/inscriptions, so there may well be some additional on chain fee pressures in the coming years.  Sure.  But it does not change anything that I would have written in my post.

You are specifically pointing out that in recent times transaction fees are going above subsidies, so supposedly that is going to change the bitcoin cycle so that we no longer have cycles?  Does that mean bitcoin is broke or what?  From your perspective?

Anyhow, I don't see any reason to panic or to be making extreme changes in my view of bitcoin merely based on some recent spikes in fees that are not supposedly sufficiently coming down.

What is it that you are wanting to say in terms of my "getting things wrong?"   Are you trying to suggest that I need to change my views about bitcoin, dynamics and incentives and what i am doing and saying in regards to bitcoin not being broken?  Do I need to sell more of my bitcoin like you do? or what is it that I  am supposed to do? Just change my ways of thinking in order to what?  Have a better appreciation regarding attempting to predict a calamitous
 future based on present trends in bitcoin fees (as related to block reward subsidies)?  Tell me.

[JimboToronto]

Aaah Homer he’s just craving for an unique hat….

 I already made him a unique hat.  Only the first one is free

Wow. You made me a second "3D" hat for free.

Then again, I didn't ask for it, you offered it. Thanx again.

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

No you don't see what I see. Look at this chart. It is not typical

What is it that you see that I don't see?  

yes, I use that same website to monitor mempool backup and also what levels of fees are clearing,

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,all,weight

and yes, the onchain transaction fees have gone up in the last year, partly based on ordinals/inscriptions, so there may well be some additional on chain fee pressures in the coming years.  Sure.  But it does not change anything that I would have written in my post.

You are specifically pointing out that in recent times transaction fees are going above subsidies, so supposedly that is going to change the bitcoin cycle so that we no longer have cycles?  Does that mean bitcoin is broke or what?  From your perspective?

Anyhow, I don't see any reason to panic or to be making extreme changes in my view of bitcoin merely based on some recent spikes in fees that are not supposedly sufficiently coming down.

What is it that you are wanting to say in terms of my "getting things wrong?"   Are you trying to suggest that I need to change my views about bitcoin, dynamics and incentives and what i am doing and saying in regards to bitcoin not being broken?  Do I need to sell more of my bitcoin like you do? or what is it that I  am supposed to do? Just change my ways of thinking in order to what?  Have a better appreciation regarding attempting to predict a calamitous
 future based on present trends in bitcoin fees (as related to block reward subsidies)?  Tell me.

I think you will continue to do as you have done not an issue for me at all. I simply think to discount the shift that is occurring  with a seemingly more coordinated effort to raise fees than ever is "different" and should be paid attention to.

Like I said at 67 in a month with no children my spending of btc or any other coin I mine is not your case.

Your case is yours.
My case is mine.

I just see a new vector and it is interesting .

pull out to 6 years :  and it looks " new and different"  longer staying power than ever.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I think you will continue to do as you have done not an issue for me at all. I simply think to discount the shift that is occurring  with a seemingly more coordinated effort to raise fees than ever is "different" and should be paid attention to.

Like I said at 67 in a month with no children my spending of btc or any other coin I mine is not your case.

Your case is yours.
My case is mine.

I just see a new vector and it is interesting .

pull out to 6 years :  and it looks " new and different"  longer staying power than ever.

Sure.. let's pay attention and try to have options, including maybe having some lightning network wallets and learn how to use them, but if you have fairly decent sized BTC transactions, you can still send them and yeah, maybe it will cost you more so you have to try to figure out how to batch them or to use coin control, and surely if the fees are going to be between $5 and$20 rather than less than a dollar, then people are going to have to think about whether they want to send their less than $100 transaction on chain or maybe they have other options and maybe they have to wait until they have $1k or more before they move their transaction? 

Yes, bitcoin was supposed to be meant for the little guy, but the little guy might have to figure out.. on chain versus other layers, and sure maybe s/he will get lured into shitcoins... Is that what you are suggesting?  it is going to get popular to transact in shitcoins?  You have made those statements before, and surely shitcoins would not even be able to exists, persist or to have value without bitcoin, so if people are understanding the hierarchy of things, then maybe it does become practical to do some transactions in shitcoins, but it still probably would not mean that I am going to be holding my main value in that crap, absent some kind of reason to keep a certain amount of value (perhaps $500 to $1k) in some various shitcoins.... I doubt we need to go there yet, but surely maybe if some folks are ONLY able to buy $10 of bitcoin at a time, they have to worry about how many bitcoin do they need to accumulate (and keep stored with third parties) before it is worth it for them to move their BTC to self-custody?  Do they wait until they get to $1k and maybe have a $30 transaction fee?  Yes, people are always engaging in these kinds of considerations, including considering changes and including considering Gresham type principles, even if they have no clue what is Gresham's law, they still follow it by nature, especially if they are living on a tight budget.. which means spending your cheaper money before spending your money that is more likely to retain its value... including recognizing which ones are saved versus which ones are spent..  ie dee cornz should be considered as the most sound of money.... but not everyone is going to know that until getting used to it.