Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[goldkingcoiner]

BTCBitcoin Inscriptions minted for less than $10 sell for $450,000 in 1st Sotheby's auction 💥
@BitcoinMagazine=https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1734992893004173432?t=l6yt-0et-uAxiTE7f65bxQ&s=19

I hate every word of this post

Yeah, I also have every word of that post in fact anything that contain those ordinals make me feel sick. Those ordinals are the cause of huge fees that we see everyday. Those useless tokens and NFT's are only present to disrupt the network of Bitcoin. Shame on those people who created ordinals and unfortunately we can't do anything to get rid of those ordinals.

Bitcoin needs challenges and obstacles to overcome. You could say that NFTs are currently driving the improvement of Bitcoin.

[1714507436]

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[Queentoshi]

You could say that NFTs are currently driving the improvement of Bitcoin.

NFT's were expected to have the ability to drag and carry away people's interest away from bitcoins, but it has not worked that way as the attention it had was temporary and just for a short time while the attention on bitcoins continue to blossom.

Bitcoin is king.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

I don't think ordinals can be stopped, regardless of what y'all think (plus Luke Dashjr).
If many will whine, bitcoin will eventually fork and I currently think that the chain WITH inscriptions would become a dominant one in this case.
Why? Simply because you can do more "stuff" with it, even though large fees are a bit annoying.

[JayJuanGee]

Anyone else scratching their head over Jerome Powell's latest move? In 2021, he's all like, "Rates will stay on hold as long as inflation stays low." Fast forward a year, rates are doing the uppity up! (Thanks JJG). Surprise, surprise, they got caught off guard!

And now, Powell's flipping the script, saying rates will get the chop in the foreseeable future. The market going all in, buying the story, hook, line and sinker!

But seriously, why drop a statement like that when we're still wrestling with inflation? It's like adding fuel to the fire. What's the strategy here, Powell? Because from where I'm sitting, it looks like a recipe for more financial pain!

The Feds are presuming that inflation is not happening.  They are not really into actual facts, but instead spin.. so they want to wish everything into a "soft-landing" that may well end up blowing up in our faces in 2024.. but hey, since when have we really let the market play itself out.. and so whether the various emergency printing is in the background.. or if it has to end up coming into the foreground, there don't seem to be scenarios in which the money printer does not continue to stay a bit wild to make up for the various shortfalls.. and in the meanwhile continuing to say that inflation is not happening.. even though an overwhelming number of folks can see that it is still happening and it is quite a bit higher than the rates that they continue to proclaim.

By the way, if some other currencies crash before the USD (such as the Argentinean dollar) and then it gets folded into the dollar, I think that helps the dollar to continue to be abusive in terms of using the whole world as its piggy bank of reserves.. or world production to prop up the USD..

Do you see any currency stronger than the dollar?  Besides bitcoin?

Gold is not going to work.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/

Maybe we are going to have to continue to talk about gold.  The gold bugs are excited, and sure Philip mentioned bitcoin going over 1 ounce in 2017, and from the linked chart, we can see that bitcoin had gotten into the 30 ounces per BTC and close to 40 ounces per BTC in the two 2021 BTC price peaks, and then got as low as 10 ounces per BTC in the late 2022 BTC crashening.. and currently we are back around 20 ounces per BTC.. and surely, BTC is around 1,000x better than BTC in terms of market cap, and at this time, BTC is about 1/20th golds market cap, so whatever if anyone is thinking that gold could be some kind of competitor to the dollar.. that ship has sailed.. and anyhow, I am preaching to the choir, even though we will likely need to continue to sometimes make the BTC/gold comparisons just to show how much bitcoin has been and continues to eat gold's lunch... and will likely continue to do so.  

I want to supplement my earlier post... and since nearly 4 hours have passed, it seems worthy of a supplemental post rather than an edit of the earlier post.

The thing is that I just realized another dynamic, which is that in 2022, the 2023 cost of living adjustment for social security and other Federal benefits was raised by 8.7%, and that increase might not have been able to even keep up with inflation at that time, but surely it shut up a lot of people who were complaining a lot about inflation, and many of us might realize that this year, the cost of living adjustment for 2024 is ONLY going to be 3.2%, which is attempting to normalize that there is no inflation and that things are getting back to normal.. even though 3.2% is likely not going to be able to keep up with whatever increases in the cost of living that had happened in 2023.. so it is a pretty big fiction to be having that adjustment to ONLY be 3.2% for 2024, and it is another way of being able to ongoingly and slyly rob from the people, and surely many people likely realize that they are being lied to but at the same time, they are not sure because their government is telling them and the "data is" supposedly "showing" that prices are not going up as fast as they might have had thought, and the soft-landing is upon us.

By the way the cost of living conclusions about inflation goes to more than just Social security recipients, but it is used as guides for a lot of the government expenses including various Fed Employees, the military, government contracts and likely guidance for some other government expenses, too.

[Taskford]

BTCBitcoin Inscriptions minted for less than $10 sell for $450,000 in 1st Sotheby's auction 💥
@BitcoinMagazine=https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1734992893004173432?t=l6yt-0et-uAxiTE7f65bxQ&s=19

I hate every word of this post

Yeah, I also have every word of that post in fact anything that contain those ordinals make me feel sick. Those ordinals are the cause of huge fees that we see everyday. Those useless tokens and NFT's are only present to disrupt the network of Bitcoin. Shame on those people who created ordinals and unfortunately we can't do anything to get rid of those ordinals.

Bitcoin needs challenges and obstacles to overcome. You could say that NFTs are currently driving the improvement of Bitcoin.

Yes it need this challenges so that it can see how strong bitcoin and sustainable when facing a lot of challenge on its existence that's how people gain confidence to hold bitcoin since they know how reliable it is compare to anything else which collapsed when some sort of problem came to them.

Also bitcoin is also touching back again at $43k so guess we have another round to try out if bitcoin could able to reach at $50k this month.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Also bitcoin is also touching back again at $43k so guess we have another round to try out if bitcoin could able to reach at $50k this month.

That's a tall order in my opinion.  It would have to take out a great deal of old resistance to get above $50K.  I don't see it happening, but I've been wrong before with how bullish this market is.  I personally think $48K is about as high as we can hope for in the near term.  Maybe if an ETF does get approved in early January we'll see a candle take us up near the all time high, but to me it seems too early in the cycle for that.  I would be expecting a heavy correction at that point, but maybe FTX holding down the market caused more built up buying pressure than I had assumed.

[BitcoinBunny]

You could say that NFTs are currently driving the improvement of Bitcoin.

NFT's were expected to have the ability to drag and carry away people's interest away from bitcoins, but it has not worked that way as the attention it had was temporary and just for a short time while the attention on bitcoins continue to blossom.

Bitcoin is king.

I own the original NFT of this photo. I will sell it to you for the low price of 4,500 BTC.

Today only. It is a heavy discount. I'm making a loss here already. I'll throw in the hard to get NFT "Longbearded Ape with his ass hanging out #45 in green." for free.



Do we have a deal or do we have a deal?

20 seconds to decide.

The clock is ticking.

[nutildah]

There are good Bitcoin NFTs, they just aren't on Ordinals.

[heslo]

Well, Ledger has shit the bed yet again

https://twitter.com/Ledger/status/1735370531224834430

Yet another reason not to dabble in shitcoins but man it has been an embarrassing year for the Ledger team. Couple all that with their software being packed with analytics tracking and they're a big NO for me now

[JayJuanGee]

Also bitcoin is also touching back again at $43k so guess we have another round to try out if bitcoin could able to reach at $50k this month.

That's a tall order in my opinion.  It would have to take out a great deal of old resistance to get above $50K.  I don't see it happening, but I've been wrong before with how bullish this market is.  I personally think $48K is about as high as we can hope for in the near term.  Maybe if an ETF does get approved in early January we'll see a candle take us up near the all time high, but to me it seems too early in the cycle for that.  I would be expecting a heavy correction at that point, but maybe FTX holding down the market caused more built up buying pressure than I had assumed.

One of the interesting "happenings" right now is that we seem to be continuing to experience persistent and ongoing UPpity that largely started in mid-October from $27k, so there have been a few legs up, and then some various kinds of seeming stagnation and then continued legs up, and so far the corrections have not really gotten to any meaningful level, which is not saying that any correction might not rise to the level of significance and/or meaning at any point including now or any point between here and $55k... Sure, $50k was resistance previously, but who gives any shits about those kinds of supposed previous resistance levels..,

however, I would still be surprised if BTC prices get into supra $55k territories without any meaningful/significant correction, whether spot ETF approvals or not....even though of course spot BTC ETF approvals would add more fuel to the fire - yet at this time, these seemingly boring flat periods, in which we are getting legs up and then seeming stagnancy and repeated legs up, just seem to be ways for the buying support to keep up with the ongoing and persistent UPpity.. which also makes it more difficult to end up getting the large, significant and meaningful correction because the buy support is able to keep up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[True Myth]

On the lifestyle/retirement subject.

I was not in as early as many of you. I do not have retirement or fuck you levels of BTC stashed away.  Fortunately, I am what I consider to be "very young" with a very well paying career.  My sole objective has always been a responsibile early retirement. Retirement in the sense of not needing to work if I dont want to, no daily agenda of things I need to do other than necessities, and a comfortable lifestyle.  I'll add that I will also be an unofficial expat once retired.

I am fortunate enough to have existing retirement assets such as pensions, annuity, 401k, (ect).  All of those are not reasonably accessible to me until later in my life when social security is also available.  Simply put, 60-death I should have more than enough even if I make a few poor decisions or have an emergency or two.  My focus has been on filling the gap between retirement and "retirement age" with personal assets.  By current conservative estimates I am on target to reach my goal in 8-10 years which puts me at an age many would consider an unsually young retirement age.

My personal assets are composed of approximately 80% Bitcoin. I have treated it as an asset that I want as much as possible of because I believe it's value will be much higher in the future than now.  I project it's increase in value as the average stock market increase of 7-9% per year to keep myself conservative.  Meanwhile, it's proved to smoke those estimates to date.

I have not worked out or planned what I will do with my bitcoin once I have achieved retirement level funds.  I do plan to run through everything else before touching it though.  Honestly, I have hoped once I am at that point I won't need to sell it for cash to use.  I am hoping I can actually make direct purchases with it instead. With planning to do a bit of traveling it adds the utility of a being a worldwide currency as well.

I thought I would share this as a truthful post on how bitcoin fits into my life.  I know I and others tend to post extreme "hold till I'm dead" type of comments but, that's just the fun side of WO for me.  Thought this might be a helpful point of view for others who did not start buying BTC at $10 a coin.

Thanks for sharing this I’m fairly aligned to most of what you have here. BTC enables early retirement imho,  If you live under US tax regime, you pay cg tax on gains but only depends on your income if you earn less than ~45k cap gains tax is 0%. Selling btc doesn’t count as income, but when your retirement accounts kick in that’s going to skew your income bracket and the cg tax you pay on asset sales.

Most of us don’t have massive stashes but I see Btc as a way to bridge the time between early retirement start and official retirement start. I probably will have more spending power in early retirement than official retirement.one could also posit that your btc stash can set the date of what early retirement is, and using a withdrawal plan you could somewhat forecast this out.

The bit I’m trying to work out now is when I come to this liquidation stage is it better to dca sell in year of halving for the next 4yrs of needed inc or to use something like the 200wma for monthly draw downs over a 4 yr period.

Taxes
Good point on the tax.  If early retirement is funded on BTC only... then income would be under the $47,025 cap.  That is something I had not factored before.  However, tax laws are finicky and always changing.  It is hard to say what tax laws may be in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years.  Another factor to take into account is the taxable rates that are constantly changing:

Source: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54911

The above graph can also explain why when you talk to people who worked from the 1970s through 2000 they tout 401k or other pretax or tax deferred savings methods.  They were working during a time where taxable rates were at an all time high.  The less tax they could get away with paying or deferring the better! Looking at the graph we are currently working in a near all time low tax rate era while they are projecting tax rates to increase.  Meaning those same retirement methods could actually result in you paying a higher taxable rate after deferring that tax.  But, in all honesty who the fuck knows what tax laws will be or what rates will be in the future.  Could it go down, up, sideways? Perhaps... perhaps... perhaps?

An example in tax law changes is when the Trump tax laws went into affect.  Some of the law changes did away with unreimbursed working expenses.  People who used to claim car mileage or other similar items on their returns were now unable to do so.  However, at the same time the standard deduction was also increased in an attempt to "make taxes more simple".  As I said, hard to say what tax laws will be or how they may change year to year.

Withdrawing
Many posts I see and folks I have talked to about this prefer the 200wma as a more stable way to project value of their holdings.  I am not quite sold on that method just yet but, I am still maybe 8-10 years away from wanting to do this.  The other method that I am looking at is withdrawing approximately 500 days after a halving.  Below is a chart I have posted that I will continue to watch in the coming years.


The chart shows an obvious ideal sell period of approximately 500 days after a halving.  However, then we come to the obstacle in the road of "past performance does not guarantee future results".  Since I am still in the accumulating phase, I have some years left to see if this cycle continues.  I've seen others hypothesize that future halvings may not have the same impact as past halvings.  There are obviously many factors that go into valuing BTC vs the the US Dollar and it is impossible to project how the future may play out.

If BTC did not continue to follow the 4 year cycle I currently see and become more stable then that may even be a better scenario in being able to withdraw on a yearly basis only the amount needed to continue to the next year.

[Richy_T]

Well, Ledger has shit the bed yet again

https://twitter.com/Ledger/status/1735370531224834430

Yet another reason not to dabble in shitcoins but man it has been an embarrassing year for the Ledger team. Couple all that with their software being packed with analytics tracking and they're a big NO for me now

How about just sticking to being a wallet? All this extra shit just increases the attack surface.

[JayJuanGee]

Withdrawing
Many posts I see and folks I have talked to about this prefer the 200wma as a more stable way to project value of their holdings.  I am not quite sold on that method just yet but, I am still maybe 8-10 years away from wanting to do this.  The other method that I am looking at is withdrawing approximately 500 days after a halving.  Below is a chart I have posted that I will continue to watch in the coming years.

The chart shows an obvious ideal sell period of approximately 500 days after a halving.  However, then we come to the obstacle in the road of "past performance does not guarantee future results".  Since I am still in the accumulating phase, I have some years left to see if this cycle continues.  I've seen others hypothesize that future halvings may not have the same impact as past halvings.  There are obviously many factors that go into valuing BTC vs the the US Dollar and it is impossible to project how the future may play out.

If BTC did not continue to follow the 4 year cycle I currently see and become more stable then that may even be a better scenario in being able to withdraw on a yearly basis only the amount needed to continue to the next year.

Of course there are going to be challenges in any attempt to rely on a time-based approach to playing the nearly inevitable BTC price waves rather than a price-based approach to playing such waves.. .. Surely, a time-based approach seems to devolve in an attempt to trade.... in a kind time in the market is better than timing the market kind of prohibition (cautionary tale).

I am not even suggesting that you are wrong to make such an attempt (but you are wrong.. hahahahahaha.. cough, cough, cough).., and the fact of the matter is that we can do whatever we like in terms of trying to manage our price expectations including trying to figure out the BTC price waves that are inevitable but we do not know how strong they will be, which direction they will go or how long they will last, even though you are trying to play that game with fractals... and yeah, it may work, but it may not..

From the perspective of this here cat, a price-framed approach seems much more calming.  You let the price come to you, and if it ends up reaching your various points, you pull the trigger, and if it does not reach you, then you just wait it out, and if you are anxious, then you can tweak the price points to make them execute more frequently and at lower amounts, and if you play them right, you are still going to get action at several points in the process, and you would not need to be greedy in the whole matter.. calm, cool and collected and collecting various cash outs along the way.

One of the reasons that some people get nervous about cashing out some BTC early is because they have not yet reached a place in which they even should be cashing out.  So that might be another consideration in that if you are not ready to be cashing out, then you should not be doing it... wait until you have enough BTC (or more than enough BTC) to be cashing out.. and if that might take one or two more cycles, then so be it.  You already mentioned that you have 8-10 more years before you are even thinking about starting to regularly withdraw your BTC, which tells me that you are not at the point of withdrawing any yet.. even though you already have it in your head that you are going to try to time this upcoming price wave.. which may or may not end up working to your advantage.  and of course, peeps can do whatever they like... and let's see how it plays out.

By the way.. either of those HypoMyth charts that show 1) no presumption of buying back and also 2) presumptions of having some buy back success. Either of those charts are fairly aggressive on the sell amounts - and yeah, of course, they are both price-based approaches rather than time-based approaches.  As you likely have noticed, I am a wee bit hostile (not totally hostile, but a wee bit) to time-based approaches, even though surely they do sometimes work, so it is nothing personal against you, because I frequently get into tussles with guys in these here parts about time-based approaches, even though such time-based approaches sometimes do end up working out (at least seemingly more profitable than a price-based approach in those circumstances) in their having had deployed such time-based tactics.

[True Myth]

No problem... I cannot really help myself, anyhow, and as you might realize, I have been just chomping at the bit to revisit my HypoPhil model, while at the same time potentially adding to it by showing some buy back ideas.

Here's a couple of charts that summarizes the HypoPhil matter.^**

**You can go to the original post to find further explanation and context for the charts.

[........&......]

Essentially, the charts show that even if you feel that you do not have enough bitcoin (10 & 5 BTC in the above examples), if you end up shaving off profits in relatively modest ways as the BTC price goes up, then you will still end up with a decent amount of BTC and value as the BTC price goes up, and surely the ideas behind the charts could be considered too inactive and too unrealistic because the BTC price might not end up going up, so then you are just stuck holding BTC and not getting any profits or being able to spend the BTC that you hold.

Subsequently, we found out from the real Phil himself that he does not have hardly any intention to be restricted by such charts, because his own way of playing his bitcoin stash includes the needs and/or preferences to draw some profits from his bitcoin on an annual basis, so surely there might be some years in which some compounding benefits could be achieved, yet instead it is quite more likely that the needs (and/or preferences) to draw income from BTC every year ends up stifling the amount of profits that anyone could be expecting to receive from his BTC stash.  

In that sense, maybe we just give up on HypoPhil because he is not even close to wanting to follow such a more strict system.  

I am thinking that if there is such a desire to sell on the way up with an expectation of buying on the way back down, and maybe even a willingness to ride bigger BTC price waves, then we might be able to create a HypoMyth out of this deal, and we could start with a similar portfolios of HypoPhil of 10 BTC and then to show some sell scenarios that spread out the sells a bit further (and more aggressively when they happen) while at the same time showing how it might look to build some buy back scenarios into the whole model.   So we can start out with the same cost basis of $10k per BTC, and so maybe there are assumptions of mistakes along the way, but also assumptions of not having enough BTC, so wanting to sell and buy back.  

I think that with HypoMyth, we still could throw in some fairly aggressive presumptions, including that HypoMyth is not going to sell any BTC until the price reaches at least 1,200% of his investment costs, so in this case the first sell would be at $130k-ish.. and we can go with a fairly aggressive sale of 20%.  Furthermore, we can go with fairly aggressive sales of 20% of the holdings each time the BTC price goes up 50%.

So under this first scenario of no buying back, if there is no buy back of the BTC, then the 10 BTC will get depleted down to 1 BTC by the time the BTC price reaches $7.5 million.  Not really a bad place to be.



The second scenario of having some set buy back plans is more complicated because there are several discretionary variables; however, if we project out an account, we can attempt to account for the various discretionary scenarios and to even create some structure that shows probabilities of success in our buying back at certain rates.

The chart looks like this:



You can probably see why I am so excited to be able to go over something like this.

So under the reinvestment parameters we can see that I divided the reinvestment into 3 parts that draw from the reinvest reserves 1/3 for each of the downward buy back prices that are 10%, 20% and 30% below the sell price, and we are using 80% of the amount that we sold for our buy backs.  The likelihood of successful buy back is calculated as 70%, 40% and 15% respectively, and we are able to average those out to 41.67% (because they have equal proportionality to each other.  Of course, if we had put different amounts into each of the buy back amounts, rather than 1/3 each, then we would have to change the formula for our total reinvestment success in order to calculate in accordance with the probability of each of the buy backs and the ratio (the amount) in each of the categories.  

So a ball park figure shows that if the buy back success ends up being 41.67%, then the amount of bitcoin at $7.5 million would be about 3x greater at 3.12467 BTC rather than just over 1 BTC.

Of course, some people want to presume greater reinvestment success, especially if they sell, they kind of give high chances that they will be able to buy back at lower prices, so it is just a matter of how much lower, so there is a kind of presumption that selling BTC is going to increase their stash rather than decrease it.. .which I surely consider to be a BIG presumption, even if selling is not necessarily a bad thing to do, especially if we are not taking it for granted that we are going to be able to buy back cheaper, even if we are selling at price points that we consider to be exponential price rises (or potential blow off tops).

Of course, guys can create their own spreadsheets like this in order to figure out their own circumstances and to plug in their own numbers and their own projections.  I am pretty sure that fillippone had created an earlier version of the HypoPhil spreadsheet (but I am not even sure any more), but I am pretty sure this is my debut of the buy back parameters.... so those formulas are a bit more complicated but they are still extractable and I have also laid out some format for trying to consider it.. and if anyone has some better suggestion of format, I am all ears.

I must say, I am honored to be partially immortalized in WO by your HypoMyth calculations  

Here are couple things I struggle with or would like to see in these hypothetical scenarios:

Dates
For me, value of BTC vs USD does not mean much without projected dates of the values.  If I consider worst case scenario of never obtaining a fuck you level amount of BTC then I would assume BTC would only be able to serve as a gap for my early retirement.  Therefore, having dates corresponding to potential sells and buys would assist in planning for the future or covering gaps with other methods of income.  Sure, BTC value shooting to the moon or me reaching my goals is ideal but, I often work in worst case scenarios when it comes to money, investing, and retirement.

Fiat Rate
I am obviously bullish when it comes to BTC vs Fiat in the long term.  However, some of the fiat rates you have listed are extraordinary $XX,XXX,XX.XX BTC certainly is a fun idea but, seems so far away at the same time.  Of course these are all hypothetical but, also seem extreme at the same time.  I know it is impossible to project the price out a week from now let alone years in advance though.  So, likely, not something we can assume with any kind of accuracy anyway.

Continued Accumulation
During this hypothetical time of selling high buying lower, surely one would still be accumulating with thier other income methods.  This would increase their BTC holdings consistently while also attempting to increase their holdings or USD value through buying/selling at the same time.  This would result in either having a piggy bank of untouched BTC or additional funds to attempt to buy high sell low with.

Taxes
During this time of selling and buying, taxes would be applied to the amounts when being sold.  This would end up decreasing the overall return on the sale and result in a lower amount of fiat to reinvest.  If taxes result in a 20% loss in fiat to use in a buy back then the first buy would need to be at least 20% lower than the original sale price to result in a profitable outcome.  Ideally, at least another 10% making the first buy back potentially at 30%.

Other
I did start putting together a spreadsheet with calculations and estimates for a HypoMyth scenario.  I did not get to finish it yet but, will work on finishing it up in the future.  I like what you have there and the premise behind it.  As I mentioned in another post, lately I am more intrigued about selling and buying during a particular time frame vs at a particular price.  This makes things much harder to project out but, at the same time then takes the price requirements out of the projection.  However, in doing so results in no possible projections in US value or BTC holdings... only potential sell and buy dates.

Weighing risk and reward with all of the possible unknown outcomes it leads me back to wondering is it even worth it in the first place?

[heslo]

Well, Ledger has shit the bed yet again

https://twitter.com/Ledger/status/1735370531224834430

Yet another reason not to dabble in shitcoins but man it has been an embarrassing year for the Ledger team. Couple all that with their software being packed with analytics tracking and they're a big NO for me now

How about just sticking to being a wallet? All this extra shit just increases the attack surface.

Bingo!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com