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I must say, I am honored to be partially immortalized in WO by your HypoMyth calculations
Here are couple things I struggle with or would like to see in these hypothetical scenarios:
Dateshahahahaha
That's not going to happen with me, as in my earlier post, I already referred to my approach as being price-based rather than time based.. and from my point of view, anyone trying to accomplish both price and time is ultimately a fool or a guesser.. and I don't want my investment approach to be based on guesses...
In other words, if I am going to need to incorporate one or the other.. then it is a hands down choice for me to go down the road of a price-based approach.
For me, value of BTC vs USD does not mean much without projected dates of the values.
Good luck with that. I am not going to go there.. even though I surely do give probabilities to it, but if we try to predict both time and price, then we end up with even further speculation.
In
my investment ideas thread, you can see that in late 2021, I did assign some probabilities to time and to price, so these are quite difficult to do, and they are moving targets, so yeah, we can assign probabilities to various price ranges within a certain amount of time, but it surely is not going to be anything that is easy to pin down or anything that I would even try to base my own portfolio managment (and/or my BTC buy and/or sell decisions).
If I consider worst case scenario of never obtaining a fuck you level amount of BTC then I would assume BTC would only be able to serve as a gap for my early retirement.
If you quantify fuck you status in terms of BTC, then you can see that the amount of BTC that you need is continuing to come down, whether you use $2 million as your fuck you status level or some other dollar value for your BTC.
From
my entry-level fuck you status chart (that describes $2 million as entry level fuck you status) even if you were to ONLY have 10 BTC, you may well entry-level fuck you status by mid 2032, and if you were to ONLY have 5 BTC, then you may well get to entry-level fuck you status by mid-2036. Of course, the projections may not be exactly right, but you can come up with your own projections that may well end up having similar kinds of directional outcomes, even if the numbers might end up varying somewhat from mine.
Therefore, having dates corresponding to potential sells and buys would assist in planning for the future or covering gaps with other methods of income.
I see that i do have some ideas for dates, but just in broader kinds of ways, and my ideas of dates are slow moving in regards to the 200-week moving average, and not in regards to the spot price, so I am likely a lot more emotionally tied to the 200-week moving average playing out in a kind of reasonable and expected way rather than attempting to have much if any clue about how the spot price is going to play out, even though surely higher BTC spot prices for longer is going to have a dragging up affect on the 200-week moving average, and the 200-week moving average is quite a bit of a lagging indicator, even though we can still attempt to make judgements about what to do in terms of our BTC portfolio management in relation to where the BTC spot price is directionally and how extreme from the 200-week moving average, as I also do in
my sustainable withdraw thread.
Of course, you already have stated that you are not ready to consider sustainable withdrawal ideas, and surely I can understand that, and so I also suggest to NOT be fucking around with selling BTC in order to accumulate more.. And once you reach the levels of sustainable withdrawal or even the other kinds of areas in which you are o.k. to schedule areas to shave off some of your BTC, then you can start to employ those systems at this time, but instead you are planning and wanting to engage in timing of the market in order to sell on the way up and buy back lower, which surely is outside of my specialty, especially the timing angle, because my systems are price-based and i work towards having the price come to me (which is actually less work) rather than trying to figure out when the BTC price is going to get at whatever places it might get and whether or not that will constitute a top or a bottom for that matter... sure I play around with such ideas, but I rarely change my buying/selling strategies based on those kinds of considerations of when and where the BTC price might be at any given time.
Sure, BTC value shooting to the moon or me reaching my goals is ideal but, I often work in worst case scenarios when it comes to money, investing, and retirement.
Actually, if you look at my HypoMyth charts, the first one subscribes to no buying back, so it might be a kind of worse case scenario if the BTC price goes shooting up to $37million, and then HypoMyth ends up selling 95% of his BTC all the way up and ends up with less than 0.5 BTC when the BTC price is at $37 million, and still is that even a bad problem to have, and if you don't like that, then you would be able to change the sell parameters including the increments of the sales and the quantity of BTC sold at each of the various increments in which a sale of BTC might be projected.
Fiat Rate
I am obviously bullish when it comes to BTC vs Fiat in the long term. However, some of the fiat rates you have listed are extraordinary $XX,XXX,XX.XX BTC certainly is a fun idea but, seems so far away at the same time.
I did not list the rates. I put in the parameters for the sales, and the fiat rates is what ended up showing up. So if your first sell was going to be 20% of your stash at $130k, then if you require the BTC price to go up 50% before you make your next sale, then it has to go up by $65k before your next sale would be triggered. You can change those increments to whatever you like and you can change the percentage sold to whatever you like, too... and so maybe it can be a little easier to look at broad strokes, but if you have smaller increments, you could just have more rows to project out further. I remember some similar kinds of charts that I had made in 2015, and they had the BTC price going up to nearly 10x, and so they were projected to go out to something like $2k, but as the BTC price continued to go up, and then I would change the earlier numbers so that the chart projected forward, then it would end up going out to higher and higher numbers, until we got to the end of 2017, then the BTC price started coming back down, so then my outward projections came down too, but sometimes I still wanted to see the far out numbers, so I just added an additional 20 rows in order to project out to $1million or whatever other outrageous number that I wanted to see.
And I can look at some of the charts that i had projecting out to $20k when the BTC price might have ONLY been around $1k and those projections seemed outrageous, and even how the reality ended up playing out was not exactly the same as how the chart had projected, because I did make various tweaks along the way, so sometimes the reality would reflect something different than what had been projected, and then I would have to go with the reality rather than the projection in terms of projecting what to do from the time that I updated the charts, and even if there was some variance, having the projections did help to provide some guidance regarding what I should do and even whether I should stick with the plan or if I might want to tweak my plan a bit based on how what is happening seems to be different from what I had previously projected would happen.
Of course these are all hypothetical but, also seem extreme at the same time.
I doubt that they are very extreme, and if you don't want to see numbers going above $1million, then just delete those rows or maybe change your increments or some other kind of action that makes sense so that the top numbers might seem more in line with something that you would like to see as being something that might play out during your time investing into BTC.....
I know it is impossible to project the price out a week from now let alone years in advance though. So, likely, not something we can assume with any kind of accuracy anyway.
You are not going to get any argument with me on that point, and I understand at the same time, we have to plan our lives, so frequently, we are going to consider whether we are going to be able to do x, y or z, or maybe if we might pull the Fuck you lever as early as 2028 or as a worse case scenario in 2038.
We can project out various kinds of timelines that can presume growth in our networth.. For example, I used to have projections of my networth that largely projected 10% or more per year changes in my networth, so there can sometimes be changes that are reflected in other kinds of charts that you have, and by the way, whatever the total changes in a person's networth might be lists of various assets that s/he holds and then projections of how much income is coming in in order to continue to accumulate the assets, and then how much each of the assets might go up in value or might retain its value or might depreciate... so there could be projections that are based on expectations, which also might help to point you towards when you might be ready, willing and able to pull the fuck you lever... and if you create a base case, which might be your expectation of what is most likely to play out, with excel it is easy to make copies of various charts and to tweak a few parameters, so you could also have some alternative scenarios that are best case scenarios or better case scenarios or various kinds of worse case scenarios that would help to give you some guidance regarding timelines that you might be able to get to a point of pulling the fuck you lever, or whatever other financially related goals that you might happen to have that can be projected out. .and surely the more realistic you are (rather than pie in the sky, then the more likely that you will be able to reach and/or exceed your expectations rather than bullshiting yourself about something that you project to happen but hardly has any chance of happening.. so frequently it is going to be better to have somewhat conservative projections, even if you keep the better scenarios in mind..
Continued Accumulation
During this hypothetical time of selling high buying lower, surely one would still be accumulating with thier other income methods.
Yes.. and that can be part of the problem of engaging in behaviors that have the opposite effect, so if you are net buying more than you are selling, then why the fuck are you wasting your time selling and buying at the same time.
Don't get me wrong, I am not against having techniques that might end up playing out like selling from one hand and buying with the other, and sometimes there might not be easy ways to resolve the dilemma.. .. but on the other hand, sometimes you may well end up coming up with a solution in which you are able to resolve the dilemma without throwing yourself out of the goal in which if you can see that you don't have enough BTC, then you should be focusing on buying BTC until you get to a point that you either have enough or you have too much, even if it might cost you a bit more to consistently be buying rather than fucking around with both buying and selling.. when the best way to accumulate more BTC is to buy, rather than selling... but hey, you can believe whatever you like.. and work your practices into your beliefs..and hope that you don't get paralyzed by trying to be greedy and buy lower when you should probably just be buying and forgetting about whether or not you might be able to buy 5% more if you wait and the drop in price may or may not end up happening.
This would increase their BTC holdings consistently while also attempting to increase their holdings or USD value through buying/selling at the same time. This would result in either having a piggy bank of untouched BTC or additional funds to attempt to buy high sell low with.
If you just keep buying, then you are not going to need to worry about the sell high and buy low phenomena.. because with the passage of time, especially greater than 4 years, it is quite likely that all of your earlier purchases are going to have had taken place at prices that are lower than the current price, and sure there are likely to continue to be waves, but if your timeline from here is another 8-10 years, then at some point you may well be changing some of your buying strategies and it will come more naturally to know what to do and to know that you have way more BTC than you actually need. Sure that is a good problem to have and it is not an inevitable outcome...but we know that many folks take 30-40 years or longer to get to entry-level fuck you status, and many don't even get there, so if you are able to get there then you have accomplished more than a lot of people and if you have the bonus outcome of getting to entry-level fuck you status in a timeline that is less than 30-40 years or even cut that down to 15-20 years, then you have really made a great accomplishment that is not even that likely of happening, and it might not even be worth it to try to rush how long it takes but instead to try to be as aggressive as you can without going overboard in terms of causing yourself to risk principle in whatever kinds of trades that you choose to make along the way.
Taxes
During this time of selling and buying, taxes would be applied to the amounts when being sold. This would end up decreasing the overall return on the sale and result in a lower amount of fiat to reinvest. If taxes result in a 20% loss in fiat to use in a buy back then the first buy would need to be at least 20% lower than the original sale price to result in a profitable outcome. Ideally, at least another 10% making the first buy back potentially at 30%.
Well if you can still get the numbers to work for you, then you account for your various expenses in order to make it work.
Other
I did start putting together a spreadsheet with calculations and estimates for a HypoMyth scenario.
That is great. If you get a working chart, then you can either plug in various scenarios around your own personal circumstances and maybe even to figure out some secret preferences that you have that you don't necessarily want to disclose, and surely some times, you might have situations in which you have BTC that are in different cost basis levels, and you may or may not want to include certain coins into your model, or you can make a copy of the chart, and then look at various scenarios side by side to make comparisons if you are trying to figure out what might be better for you or better ways to think about the matter, or maybe even if you are wanting to compare worse case, base case and better case scenarios side by side.
I did not get to finish it yet but, will work on finishing it up in the future. I like what you have there and the premise behind it. As I mentioned in another post, lately I am more intrigued about selling and buying during a particular time frame vs at a particular price.
Going through the exercise of projecting out the numbers could influence your thinking on the matter, so I am glad that you are at least going through it, and seeing if there might be some ways that it might make sense for you, even if the starting out BTC amounts or the sell amounts might be different or the percentages that you would like to sell at various points might be different or the increments between sales might be different.
This makes things much harder to project out but, at the same time then takes the price requirements out of the projection. However, in doing so results in no possible projections in US value or BTC holdings... only potential sell and buy dates.
You could end up doing both, too... you could have part of your stash that you are selling based on price and another part that is based on timing. Of course, if you divide into two, then you likely would end up reducing the amounts in each category, but you can work out those kinds of projections, and it seems that we still have quite a bit of time, according to your current time-projection...
Weighing risk and reward with all of the possible unknown outcomes it leads me back to wondering is it even worth it in the first place?
hahahahaha.. if you are not sure, then maybe you just reduce the size, so you don't end up doing anything too drastic..and if you are in BTC accumulation stage, it seems to me to be the best way to accumulate BTC is by buying it regularly, persistently and consistently, and not by selling it....and sure, sometimes you have accumulated a certain amount of BTC that you don't really want to be buying at the top of a blow off top, but that might still not mean that you sell any BTC but that you just keep accumulating BTC during the periods that you perceive the BTC price to be high and to be able to use that extra accumulated fiat for buying at various points during the dip (if such a dip ends up happening).
Poll
