Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

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[Biodom]

Jeff Bezos and others are talking about 1 tril humans living in the Solar system (mostly on O'Neill cylindrical colonies, depicted in the "Intrastellar" movie):

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jeff-bezos-plays-down-ai-dangers-and-says-a-trillion-humans-could-live-in-huge-cylindrical-space-stations-78058437

My question is: what would be the longest distance of such colony to Earth (or maybe between different colonies) to still maintain a common bitcoin ledger?
I am not exactly sure how nodes "decide" which miner was the first to the block.
For example if one miner is on The Moon, which is 1.28 sec away by the light pulse: would that miner always lag and, therefore, not able to claim a block?
Or, is there a 'compensation' mechanism that would take the 1.28 sec delay into the account (in case of a Moon miner)?
Of course 1.28 sec is much less than 10min between blocks, so theoretically, this still can be sorted IF there is a mechanism to compensate for that 1.28 sec delay due to the speed of light transmission limit.

I also found this description (https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/84412/how-does-a-node-decide-whether-a-block-is-valid):

This is also true in a tie. If two blocks are mined by different miners at the same time, each participant assumes that the first block they received is the valid one, and they continue the Proof-of-Work process from this valid block. The next miner to create a valid block ends the tie by creating the longer chain, and any miner who was working on a block other than the one referred to in the new block's header will discard the work they have done so far on the shorter chain, and continue working on the longer chain.

The problem is with the term "at the same" time, imho. Relative to what?

In any case, if this cannot be counteracted, then only the O'Neill structures that are closer than Moon to earth could participate, but I doubt that they could be allowed in such a close proximity because of a possibility of those structures colliding with Earth (if they would be built so close).

https://unchained.com/blog/law-of-hash-horizons/

The Muskcoin Revolution of 2140

In our view, Clark is partially right.  Earth will remain the dominant bitcoin mining planet.  But one day Martians will stage a revolution in support of their own token: Muskcoin.  If they succeed, then Mars will become the dominant Muskcoin mining planet.  The Muskcoin Revolution of 2140 will become a template for other colonies of Earth to follow, just like the American Revolution of 1776 was in its age.
Why Martians will want Muskcoin

    Transaction without settlement is tyranny.

– Martian revolutionary slogan, 2138

After the revolution, everyone will understand that successful human colonies near locations with abundant natural resources that are able to attract settlers and build industry will launch their own blockchains once they have sufficient political will and hashrate.  Indeed, becoming a peer in the Solchain network will become the definition of what it means to be a successful colony.

Awesome..
1. Looking at the graph it seems that it shows somewhat strange numbers. For example, a pool with a theoretical 15% hash rate produces "only" about 9% of the blocks.
Maybe this explains why block production was always lagging in more minor pools that I favored, probably erroneously (but it never was less than 90-91% of "theoretical"). I guess large pools gobbled the "extra".

2. The graph "starts" at 50 light seconds (by eyeballing the graph). I assume that anything less that this would not affect the effective hash rates, so, multiplying this by the speed of light, it gives us a "sphere" with the radius of 50sX299792.458km/s=14989622.9km or 9334119.85 miles, with the sphere's volume of 1.41X10^22 km³. The volume of earth is 1.086X10^12 km³, which, if my rough calculations are correct, bitcoin mining could be done in a volume of space around Earth that exceeds Earth's volume by a factor of ~12.9 billion (X12900000000), which roughly corresponds to the distance of up to x39 the distance between the Earth and the Moon. In other words: plenty of space to put O'Neill structures there that would still be able to hash the common bitcoin chain (Mars is out of luck, though..too far).

Even if numbers presented here prove to be a rough estimate, in my mind I already "see" it (O'Neill[space cylinders with gravity on the surface due to rotation] colonies in space hashing bitcoin for trading, etc): the "Nakomoto sphere".

[True Myth]

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I though there's more slide down when bitcoin price range at $40k but good to see that it pump back and give a huge relief to those people got nervous on that situation.  Now since it get back again for sure people is speculating for at least bitcoin to reach at $45k or maybe reach more this figure.

A consolidation at this point would be nice.  Going sideways until ETF announcement would show a strong support at this price range. ETF approval mid January followed by halving in April should set us up nicely for a strong bull run.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Go Buddy Go!

[cAPSLOCK]

Guys, quick Q:

What would you recommend as the best (polished, easy/intuitive UI, reliable) Lightning wallet? It should be able to run on either Android, or Windows (ideally on both, with synching between them).

Made a small payment on-chain y'day, with low fees, and it's still pending...

I hope you can handle it on your PC so you can use "Electrum" is the best (I hope available PC and Phone).

But you can use only a phone and then "trustwallet" for more future and multi-currency.

it is just personal opinion, (right now fee is high all wallet).  

You can try "BTC Transaction Accelerator". right now "Remaining hourly FREE transactions have vanished" you can try next hour it's workable.

Edite.

I didn't know Electrum can do Lightning... But I'm a total noob when it comes to Lightning...

Will look into it, thanks.

BTW, I've just used your ViaBTC Transaction Accelerator link, and it worked! I had to wait for the counter to reset to 100 free TXIDs, exactly on the hour. Nice service, bookmarked.

Thanks for that too. Merited.

Ugh.  Electrum CAN do lightning.  But do not start there.  It's complicated and kludgey (Still such a great on chain wallet).

Non Custodial: Breez
Custodial: Wallet of Satoshi
Coming soon: Green

I mention WoS just because it is the drop dead easiest, best working wallet available.  But custodial wallets run an ever increasing risk of getting frozen by regulators.

I feel like Breez works the best for the non-custodial wallets, but it requires a little patience up front.

Green should get interesting as they are a very easy to use wallet and are JUST rolling out lightning.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I really would like to see a push to 48k+

Really hard to say... if we are going to be able to make $48k + by the end of the year.  Surely it is far from impossible, and sometimes BIG fireworks do end up happening around this time of the year.. even though the direction of such fireworks (if you know what I mean?) is not always clearly in one direction versus another.  There are ONLY two weeks left in the year (or do we say, a wee bit less than two weeks?)...

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I though there's more slide down when bitcoin price range at $40k but good to see that it pump back and give a huge relief to those people got nervous on that situation.  Now since it get back again for sure people is speculating for at least bitcoin to reach at $45k or maybe reach more this figure.

That's one of the tricky things about dee corns because just around half a day ago, it was looking as if the odds for sub $40k were getting quite high.. at least higher than 50/50.. and yet, did not end ujp happening in that particular run.. so who is going to say. .was that just a fake out and we are resuming UP, or is our current UP a fake out and we are returning DOWN?  I am not going to say, and I even hardly give too many shits since we still seem to be in the midst of a currently pretty large don't wake me up zone, if anyone had not realized it to be something in the ballpark of $35k to $55k... snooze, snooze, snooze.. if you know what I am trying to say?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OROBTC]

Guys, quick Q:

What would you recommend as the best (polished, easy/intuitive UI, reliable) Lightning wallet? It should be able to run on either Android, or Windows (ideally on both, with synching between them).

Made a small payment on-chain y'day, with low fees, and it's still pending...

I hope you can handle it on your PC so you can use "Electrum" is the best (I hope available PC and Phone).

But you can use only a phone and then "trustwallet" for more future and multi-currency.

it is just personal opinion, (right now fee is high all wallet).  

You can try "BTC Transaction Accelerator". right now "Remaining hourly FREE transactions have vanished" you can try next hour it's workable.

Edite.

I didn't know Electrum can do Lightning... But I'm a total noob when it comes to Lightning...

Will look into it, thanks.

BTW, I've just used your ViaBTC Transaction Accelerator link, and it worked! I had to wait for the counter to reset to 100 free TXIDs, exactly on the hour. Nice service, bookmarked.

Thanks for that too. Merited.

Ugh.  Electrum CAN do lightning.  But do not start there.  It's complicated and kludgey (Still such a great on chain wallet).

Non Custodial: Breez
Custodial: Wallet of Satoshi
Coming soon: Green

I mention WoS just because it is the drop dead easiest, best working wallet available.  But custodial wallets run an ever increasing risk of getting frozen by regulators.

I feel like Breez works the best for the non-custodial wallets, but it requires a little patience up front.

Green should get interesting as they are a very easy to use wallet and are JUST rolling out lightning.

I like the Green Wallet, and thanks for letting us know they are working on Lightning.  Green allows RBF and Coin Control.

With the extremely high fees, the time is coming when I need to learn how to use Lightning.

[philipma1957]

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I really would like to see a push to 48k+

Really hard to say... if we are going to be able to make $48k + by the end of the year.  Surely it is far from impossible, and sometimes BIG fireworks do end up happening around this time of the year.. even though the direction of such fireworks (if you know what I mean?) is not always clearly in one direction versus another.  There are ONLY two weeks left in the year (or do we say, a wee bit less than two weeks?)...

Nice to see BTC back above $42K as the week kicks off. Was looking like the price might keep sliding.

I though there's more slide down when bitcoin price range at $40k but good to see that it pump back and give a huge relief to those people got nervous on that situation.  Now since it get back again for sure people is speculating for at least bitcoin to reach at $45k or maybe reach more this figure.

That's one of the tricky things about dee corns because just around half a day ago, it was looking as if the odds for sub $40k were getting quite high.. at least higher than 50/50.. and yet, did not end ujp happening in that particular run.. so who is going to say. .was that just a fake out and we are resuming UP, or is our current UP a fake out and we are returning DOWN?  I am not going to say, and I even hardly give too many shits since we still seem to be in the midst of a currently pretty large don't wake me up zone, if anyone had not realized it to be something in the ballpark of $35k to $55k... snooze, snooze, snooze.. if you know what I am trying to say?

Well today I did a send from Nicehash wallet via LN sent around 0.0015 fee was 0.00000014

I then used kraken to send  0.0015 to nicehash via LN fee was 0.00000014


So far testing show nicehash can send and receive via LN up to 1.5 ltc


I am well aware funds on nicehash are not in my custody

Also for that matter my kraken fees are at risk.

these accounts never hold a lot of value and I now have two different ways to do LN sends or receives.


if I want to shift to coinbase they do not do LN yet.

maybe next year all these are KYC accounts.

I am doing a show and tell thread on using LN but not on self custody LN

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478443.msg63346745#msg63346745


when using Nicehash or kraken which I used so far.

you dont have the keys so the coins can be taken away via hack or freeze.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[TrustedBitcoiner]

With the extremely high fees, the time is coming when I need to learn how to use Lightning.

some where out there, there is a big blocker still hodling on to the dream.  

necessity is the mother of invention, knowing that i suspect lighting network will see alot of inovation coming soon. I'm also looking to learn to use it, nodoubt if these fees keep up, others will too.

[TrustedBitcoiner]

as for short term price action i suspect a pretty deep correction, looking for ~31K. at the very least a very choppy sideway action for a while. can the price HODL at this local top for 3 weeks untill the ETF aproval? Maybe. but in any case i'm thinking correction (sooner or later) then grinding back.

but maybe i'm just Dreaming looking for a good entery price for what is sure to be an epic year!

[philipma1957]

as for short term price action i suspect a pretty deep correction, looking for ~31K. at the very least a very choppy sideway action for a while. can the price HODL at this local top for 3 weeks untill the ETF aproval? Maybe. but in any case i'm thinking correction (sooner or later) then grinding back.

but maybe i'm just Dreaming looking for a good entery price for what is sure to be an epic year!

it is far more likely to go to 48k by jan 1 then your number of 31k


but if all etf action is not allowed til june or july we will drop in Jan.

[AlcoHoDL]

Guys, quick Q:

What would you recommend as the best (polished, easy/intuitive UI, reliable) Lightning wallet? It should be able to run on either Android, or Windows (ideally on both, with synching between them).

Made a small payment on-chain y'day, with low fees, and it's still pending...

I hope you can handle it on your PC so you can use "Electrum" is the best (I hope available PC and Phone).

But you can use only a phone and then "trustwallet" for more future and multi-currency.

it is just personal opinion, (right now fee is high all wallet).  

You can try "BTC Transaction Accelerator". right now "Remaining hourly FREE transactions have vanished" you can try next hour it's workable.

Edite.

I didn't know Electrum can do Lightning... But I'm a total noob when it comes to Lightning...

Will look into it, thanks.

BTW, I've just used your ViaBTC Transaction Accelerator link, and it worked! I had to wait for the counter to reset to 100 free TXIDs, exactly on the hour. Nice service, bookmarked.

Thanks for that too. Merited.

Ugh.  Electrum CAN do lightning.  But do not start there.  It's complicated and kludgey (Still such a great on chain wallet).

Non Custodial: Breez
Custodial: Wallet of Satoshi
Coming soon: Green

I mention WoS just because it is the drop dead easiest, best working wallet available.  But custodial wallets run an ever increasing risk of getting frozen by regulators.

I feel like Breez works the best for the non-custodial wallets, but it requires a little patience up front.

Green should get interesting as they are a very easy to use wallet and are JUST rolling out lightning.

Thanks for the info, will look into the wallets you're suggesting. I know Electrum is extremely popular, but, surprising as it sounds, I never had to use it.

Obviously, I prefer a non-custodial wallet, but I could accept a custodial one, as long as the ease of use and overall user experience justifies it. After all, LN is meant for small payments, so the risk is not so big.

I'm not in a hurry, so Green may be a good choice. Will wait.

The main thing I look for is a well-designed, easy, friendly UI, reliability, and, ideally, non-custodial. I intend to use it for petty cash transactions (under $1000).

[TrustedBitcoiner]

as for short term price action i suspect a pretty deep correction, looking for ~31K. at the very least a very choppy sideway action for a while. can the price HODL at this local top for 3 weeks untill the ETF aproval? Maybe. but in any case i'm thinking correction (sooner or later) then grinding back.

but maybe i'm just Dreaming looking for a good entery price for what is sure to be an epic year!

it is far more likely to go to 48k by jan 1 then your number of 31k


but if all etf action is not allowed til june or july we will drop in Jan.

i could see 48K before 31, but i still see 31 in the cards  


and if the ETF is not approve (which i think there is a 10-15% chance of that) that would be hell bearish i'd move my target down to 20K

[nutildah]

Mempool slightly better but still not great. 150 sat/byte could very well be the new normal.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

I like the Green Wallet, and thanks for letting us know they are working on Lightning.  Green allows RBF and Coin Control.

With the extremely high fees, the time is coming when I need to learn how to use Lightning.

Another vote for Green, I see. Good to know. Will keep an eye on it re. LN integration.

Yes, the on-chain fee size is becoming an issue for small payments. But then again, buying coffee on-chain is like using a chainsaw to cut butter. So yeah, 2nd-layer BTC networks are important, and will be more so in the future. I know (have been reading here and there, and also in WO) that LN has its problems, but I hope they get ironed out and we end up with a robust 2nd-layer network, with the uptime and reliability of on-chain transactions, that's going to be standardized and adopted worldwide as a payment method. Michael Saylor is actively promoting this IIRC, as is Jack Dorsey and other big players out there. And no, LTC won't cut it, as it is just a matter of time (i.e., network load) before it clogs up too. The solution must be by design, not by low utilization.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com