Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

@BritishHodl
This is what a Spot ETF in the USA did to Gold for 8 years.

8 years of up on an asset with a flexible supply schedule.

What do you think is going to happen to #Bitcoin  which has a fixed defined supply, that halves every 4 years, of which people that own the coins HODL 80% of them?

These bearish on #Bitcoin  ETF people are either the stupidest people on earth, or have an agenda to be bearish.

Like the Gold sellers did when I was telling people to use GLD, they hated me because their business was dying.

Just on price - how can you be bearish on a Spot #Bitcoin  ETF?

We can argue ideology and philosophy.

But we can’t argue financial physics of supply and demand.

https://x.com/britishhodl/status/1738294151869862253

TOTALLY agree with him on the metrics of the impact on price.  And definitely have concerns about ideology and philosophy, but I have made those clear.

It's liable to be the big one, lol.  It's hard for me to even imagine "sell the news" though I suppose it could happen.

[1714303372]

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[1714303372]

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[1714303372]

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[JayJuanGee]

If you invested $1,000, 10 years ago:   

Google: $5,000
Facebook: $6,000
Amazon: $7,500
Tesla: $25,000
Bitcoin: $44,000
BM

Google 8000$

1000$ invested in BTC 6 years ago, 2000$ now 

Hahahahaha

What a negative Nancy.

Let's try to be bit more realistic and not give to much credit to the dummies in this world.

Hopefully there were not very many people who were so fucking dumb to do a lump sum investment at the top of a cycle that was right around 78x from late 2015 to late 2017 and then just sit on their hands for the next 6 years.

The more realistic and smart scenario would have been that someone who front-loaded their investment in November 2017, might have bought right around 0.5 BTC for a $10k investment, and then if that same person would have had DCAd about $1k per month or $250 per week from November 1, 2017 until now, then he would have invested an additional $80,250 and accumulated an additional 6.86925 BTC (average cost per BTC of $11,700 and currently valued at $302,250), so his total amount invested would be $90,250 ($10k + $80,250), and his total amount of BTC would be 7.36925 (0.5 BTC + 6.86925) (average cost per BTC of $12,250 and currently valued at $324,247).  Surely not a bad place to be.

so btc is godlike 2012 to 2023

and great 2013 to 2023

and good 2017 to 2023

Of course, the longer that any of is in BTC then the better the numbers are going to look, and there is a certain value to persistence too, and even 2017 to 2023 looks pretty great to me, but yeah, not as great as having the investment compound over a few more cycles.

This "in cash" thing about the ETF is ticking me off. They're just looking for a way into paper btc, which as of now isn't a (real) thing. They will have their way, I'm sure.

I hope they get burned by the mightiest short squeeze on the "underlying" the Earth has ever seen. That will teach them and enrich others (notably, some of the people reading these words).

I suppose they had to give in to the pressure of the SEC, which preferred the in-cash method, while ETF applicants were in favor of the in-BTC method of doing business.
This isn't written in stone, however, and therefore subject to change at some future point in time. The expectations of paper-investors seem to be high, so why would ETF applicants risk another "no-no" by the SEC? I think they want to get things started, and take the compromise. Once BTC is established and trusted enough in these realms (it's still considered to be an alternative asset, imo), things may change fast again, as it currently does with the ETFs.
No?

(EDIT: Or just my wishful thinking?)

If short squeezed to death, the investing world will likely fall back to push the good old "it's a risky scam" narrative.

It seems that if SEC is approving products that are inferior to directly owning BTC, then BTC is built upon incentives, and so therefore the free market may well decide that some people are going to prefer to own BTC directly rather than dealing with inferior products... sure some people are going to be stuck with the more apparently inferior product because they have restrictions on how they are able to use their funds.. but it likely is not really going to damaged king daddy bitcoin, and king daddy might end up teaching some of them some lessons in regards to if they have intentions to play around.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I like making money while sleeping.  

I like making money in both states: Sleeping and Waking! Ah, sure it's fun to make money when you're sleeping but it's also fun to make money when you are waking. Waking money comes from trading, while sleeping money comes from investing. I think we need both of those if we want to earn money in both states!

Fuck trading.

#nohomo

This "in cash" thing about the ETF is ticking me off. They're just looking for a way into paper btc, which as of now isn't a (real) thing. They will have their way, I'm sure.

I hope they get burned by the mightiest short squeeze on the "underlying" the Earth has ever seen. That will teach them and enrich others (notably, some of the people reading these words).

I don't the correlation between in-cash and paper BTC. Bitcoin ETF will be a highly regulated product, given the position of the SEC.

I don't see a problem with "in-cash" settlement, considering most in market participants would be entering in cash, would make sense from a financial/accounting side to exit in-cash as well.

Some drawbacks floating around is fees/fees and more fees. Given the state of the mempool, i think settlement in cash maybe more of an advantage, given the cost to sell on an exchange is less than 1%

in-cash or in-kind, fractional-reserve / paper Bitcoin is still possible... and porbably legal?

gold ETFs are a "highly regulated product" and they naked short sell the crap out of that all the time, no?

They are not legally allowed to create paper bitcoin, merely because it is cash-settled.

And last time I checked bitcoin is not the same as gold.

Actually bitcoin is likely in the neighborhood of 1,000x better than gold, even though it could take 50-200 years to play out. .in terms of bitcoin and gold coming to the something more approximating correct pairings, and right now bitcoin is about 1/20th the price of gold, so it seems that bitcoin is discounted right around 1/20,000th as compared to gold.. even though like I mentioned it could take 50-200 years for the market to actually accurately reflect such.

Bitcoin is having a nice run but with its mempool issues currently you can really see the effect on higher throughput blockchains. Solana and ADA seem to be crushing it as a result. I hope Bitcoin can get this figured out. It is way too early in the cycle to be having these issues. Makes you wonder who these people are making transactions currently.

Fuck shitcoins.

You appear distracted.

Keep your eye on the prize, and you should not remain disappointed.

btc           19.5k dec 2017 44.1k dec 2023
edit :
google       53 dec 2017    140 dec  2023     that beats BTC
Facebook 176 dec 2017    350 dec 2023     just loses to btc
amazon     59 dec 2017    145 dec 2023      that beats BTC
Tesla         20 dec 2017    241 dec 2023      that beats BTC

Tesla is best dec 2017  to dec 2023

Yes... and you too.

Keep your eye on the prize.

Don't get distracted too much.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Big weekend coming up or what?

Wake up on Christmas and see 48k?


Dec 2023
24
25
26


Dec 2022
24  16,796
25   16,847
26   16,842


DEC 2021
24  50,768
25  50,393
26  50,076


Dec 2020
24   23,240
25   23,733
26   26,280


the gain in 2020 from Christmas Day to Boxing Day was very good 10.7%


if we can do that this time we could crack 48k on the 26th of Dec Boxing Day

[JimboToronto]

Waking Losing money comes from trading

FTFY

There's always someone who can reprogram their bots faster than you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Big weekend coming up or what?

Wake up on Christmas and see 48k?


Dec 2023
24
25
26


Dec 2022
24  16,796
25   16,847
26   16,842


DEC 2021
24  50,768
25  50,393
26  50,076


Dec 2020
24   23,240
25   23,733
26   26,280


the gain in 2020 from Christmas Day to Boxing Day was very good 10.7%


if we can do that this time we could crack 48k on the 26th of Dec Boxing Day

Continuing on this topic...By cycle timing, we are more like 2019, but we are probably left-translated a bit, maybe as much as 4-6 mo in comparison with the prior cycle.
In 2019, almost nothing happened on those days.

Dec 2019
24   7,270
25   7,221
26   7,200

We shall see.

[Negotiation]

Big weekend coming up or what?

Wake up on Christmas and see 48k?

the gain in 2020 from Christmas Day to Boxing Day was very good 10.7%


if we can do that this time we could crack 48k on the 26th of Dec Boxing Day

Not only is it $48k I think it is capable of crossing $50k, but Christmas is a perfect time for it to go up fast.

If you look at the candles, you will see that they are ready to go up at any time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[TrustedBitcoiner]

hey guys im wasted, lets talk

[TrustedBitcoiner]

now some of you may not know who i am but give this post a merit and you might find out.

[TrustedBitcoiner]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeK-d553Mjk&t=103s

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitebits]

On the one hand I am obviously happy when the ETF gets approved. There is an ocean of dollars out there that can't use Coinbase/Kraken/Binance and the like. On the other hand I notice I am a bit sad by the thought of it, Bitcoin will never be the same anymore afterwards. It leads to more centralisation and retail buying ETF shares will never learn to self custody and transact in bitcoin (and therefore fully understand and experience Bitcoin). Creating paper bitcoins is a very tempting threat. Wallstreet will love their new and volatile toy for daytarding and there are heaps of trading fees to be earned by the exchanges, encouraging it to change hands like a hot potato. I can even imagine once Blackrock and the likes get a decent market share they start to have an opinion on blocksize, which transactions should and shouldn't be in a block, etc.

Let's see how it evolves, can't do much about it except for not buying those ETF's and hodl your own coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com