well the Oct 2020 to April 2022 time frame was good but a lot of stuff happened :
pandemic
supply chain
China tore the heart 💜 out of the hashrate.
Sbf
I guess a lot of figuring for the future is more or less a guess.
Do you do this just to irritate "some" people? You pick these seemingly random periods in which to make some kind of a status assessment.
I think that yuou might be somewhat caught up in mainstream kind of narratives and frameworks, because how else are you going to frame where bitcoin might be from that kind of a timeline? and selection of highlighted issues?
but dec 2017 to jan 2024 is just a bit more than inflation. say 2.3x
It is still not that representative of how to figure out where bitcoin is.. I mean starting from the top of 2017?
Think about it Phil.
Let's say that you totally fucked up your whole bitcoin journey from 2011 to 2017 and you did not really figure out that it is good to hang onto bitcoin until right before the December 2017 top... so at that point, if you figured out that you need to make up for some lost time, you are not going to be getting 2.3x.. because even you would not have plugged in some kind of a lump sum at the very top and then just sat on it for more than 6 years.
Think about it further, if you had stopped with cashing out every year and focused on and actual investment timeline of 6-7 years, and then bought aggressively around $250 per week for that whole time (and don't tell me that $250 per week would have been out of your joint income budget to be able to accomplish without too much pain), then if you got in with $250 per week at the
beginning of the fiscal year 2017 and invested $250 per week until now, you would have had invested $81,750 and accumulated 7.131 BTC (currently valued at $304k), with an average cost per BTC of $11,464, so right around 3.73x in profits (rather than 2.3x), and so not a bad place to be.. and presumably that would not be all of your investments, and hopefully your BTC investment has done at least that good from late 2017 until now..
of course the early 2020 drop to 3900 to jan 2024 is smoking hot 11/12x move.
I don't mind measuring from March 2020 to present, even though March 2020 was a bit of a Black swan event, but there could have had been some ways to get into BTC for a lot of that period with considerable lump sums that might average between $6,500 and $7,500, but I hate to attribute so much perfection to people who might have been working on getting into bitcoin in 2018, 2019 and 2020... even though surely there were some pretty decent price dippening periods during that time, but it still becomes quite difficult to keep your average cost per BTC down below the DCA amount, even though it would not have had been impossible to imagine some BTC bullish (or might we say BTC aggressive investing) folks with average costs per BTC that are somewhere between $6,500 and $11k during that period.
Remember poor widdo mindrust nearly killed himself during that period (even though his was more narrowly prompted by the March 2020 liquidation event, but his admittedly overly-aggressive BTC accumulation behaviors in 2018 and 2019 contributed to his March 2020 set up for a panic), and he seemed to have gotten his average cost per BTC down to somewhere in the mid $4ks because that was around the price that he sold his supposed 10 BTC and then bought back 1 BTC... and yeah hopefully he has more than 1 BTC now, even though he kept his promise to stay out of this thread for the past nearly 4 years.. which as an active forum member, he does continue to seem a bit stubborn in those regards.
so the wrong six years and a month 2.3x
the right three years and 10 months 11.6x
Stop trying to time perfection.. that just seems ridiculous... even though maybe I should give you a wee bit of a break since I see that you are striving to paint something resembling the extremes of a long only non-leveraged approach to BTC investing/accumulation during the past 6 years-ish.
heres hoping to see 11.6x in three years and ten months.
which gets us to 500k by nov 2028 works for me.
Whoaza!!!!!
That is a strange way of reaching your conclusion. to pick the extreme of how we got to where we are at currently and then project that out for the next time period.
You
deserve a slap for that, even if you might have a fairly reasonable number, but how you got there is a wee much, no?
which gets us to 500k by nov 2028 works for me.
I'm not sure that Nov 2028 and $1M are in our touch...Future prediction.
You are going with Philip's looney framing?
You
probably deserve a slap, too.
Birds of a feather flock together.. I’m very curious how next week is going to go.
Why don't we finish seeing this week first?
#asking for a friend
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