Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

Cramer says: MAJOR TOP

I hear: MOJO TRAP

[1714686423]

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

some proposals for a new poll:


Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k?

What is the Bitcoin price at halving date?

What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date?

Will we have new ATH before halving?

• $50,000
• $58,000
• $63,000
• No

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

some proposals for a new poll:


Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k?

What is the Bitcoin price at halving date?

What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date?

Will we have new ATH before halving?

• $50,000
• $58,000
• $63,000
• No

Sounds reasonable to me.

But the lack of proudhon posts is not a good sign.

And the current 15-min chart is mental torture...

[OutOfMemory]

[
But the lack of proudhon posts is not a good sign.

And the current 15-min chart is mental torture...

Looks like most is going into Vitalik's shitecoin.
As usual, it will flow back later.

[AlcoHoDL]

Looks like most is going into Vitalik's shitecoin.
As usual, it will flow back later.

Yes, It will.

I'd say, keep away from charts for a few weeks, if you want to keep your sanity, because right now it feels like we're in cloud cuckoo land.

An advice I'm not following...

[MERlT]

[
But the lack of proudhon posts is not a good sign.

And the current 15-min chart is mental torture...

Looks like most is going into Vitalik's shitecoin.
As usual, it will flow back later.

The Bitcoin Price, is behaving like just one company owns both the largest crypto exchange, "cough! cough! Binance "and the world's most-referenced price-tracking website for cryptoassets coinmarketcap.com cough! cough! Binance

[Torque]

OT:

Hilarious @ all these tech corps, finance corps and banks announce a "10% staff reduction" in Jan/Feb every year. Then many of them do it again in the Fall.

Hey dipshits, you do that for 2 1/2 years straight, you've effectively downsized your entire company by 50-fkn percent. Half your employees, gone. And that's bad. Really bad.

You didn't think the plebs would notice? Yeah...we did...  

[Torque]

[
But the lack of proudhon posts is not a good sign.

And the current 15-min chart is mental torture...

Looks like most is going into Vitalik's shitecoin.
As usual, it will flow back later.

Most people don't realize, it's the ETH market that the traders play now. Bitcoin used as a lever.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[dragonvslinux]

JIM CRAMER says:  Major top in Bitcoin... BTC MAJOR! 🥴

But I sincerely believe he gives spot-on reverse signals  

Unfortunately too many speculators rely on these "reverse signals", because they are right 95-99% of the time. But what about the 1-5% when they actually get it right? No-one mentions it, because if you've been calling a top in Bitcoin throughout 2023, you're eventually going to make a right call is the reality. It reminds me of Il Capo; if you call a top enough times, eventually you'll get it right! No credit necessary...

As for the chart, this is so far going as anticipated, ie buy the rumour sell the news. The Weekly candle, which is the most relevant right now, as is turning into a massive doji reversal, the likes we haven't seen since October 2021, ie with a 10% wick to the upside, nothing else comes close. There were a few in July and August last year, as well as February 2022, prior to price correcting, but nothing as substantial.

In fact, if price ends the week below $44K, with a -10% wick, it'd be the longest bearish wick since June 2019 that was -20%. Obviously this doesn't mean price will definitely move to the downside, only that out of the handful of bearish doji candles in recent years, all of them led to a correction of some sort; whether that was minor or severe. That said, the current structure still remains bullish above $43K.

[birr]

I don't waste time trying to predict short term pumps and reversals.  It's all about the halving cycle.  For buying, wait at least a year after an ATH.  For selling, I have an algorithm for timing the peaks at the end of bull markets.  Yup, you heard me right.  I time the tops.  This only happens once about every four years.

Cramer is irrelevant.   As Wolfgang Pauli once said about another physicist, Cramer is so bad that he's not even wrong.

[AirtelBuzz]

The SEC's Gary Gensler reiterated on live cable TV that "Bitcoin is a highly speculative volatile asset that is used for illegal activity."

[Toxic2040]

JIM CRAMER says:  Major top in Bitcoin... BTC MAJOR! 🥴

But I sincerely believe he gives spot-on reverse signals  

Unfortunately too many speculators rely on these "reverse signals", because they are right 95-99% of the time. But what about the 1-5% when they actually get it right? No-one mentions it, because if you've been calling a top in Bitcoin throughout 2023, you're eventually going to make a right call is the reality. It reminds me of Il Capo; if you call a top enough times, eventually you'll get it right! No credit necessary...

As for the chart, this is so far going as anticipated, ie buy the rumour sell the news. The Weekly candle, which is the most relevant right now, as is turning into a massive doji reversal, the likes we haven't seen since October 2021, ie with a 10% wick to the upside, nothing else comes close. There were a few in July and August last year, as well as February 2022, prior to price correcting, but nothing as substantial.

In fact, if price ends the week below $44K, with a -10% wick, it'd be the longest bearish wick since June 2019 that was -20%. Obviously this doesn't mean price will definitely move to the downside, only that out of the handful of bearish doji candles in recent years, all of them led to a correction of some sort; whether that was minor or severe. That said, the current structure still remains bullish above $43K.

a strike rate of 5% or less should be considered noise and most likely is imo....as for the weekly candle, it is presenting as a shooting star...for now...but...its just a long wick until closing bell
 
in other words you have to wait for it to be something before it actually is....but surely...that does not mean 'we' cant speculate about it   

that being said...it appears to be a good accumulation zone forming over the next couple of weeks   

dyor

D

stronghands

[dragonvslinux]

[
But the lack of proudhon posts is not a good sign.

And the current 15-min chart is mental torture...

Looks like most is going into Vitalik's shitecoin.
As usual, it will flow back later.

Most people don't realize, it's the ETH market that the traders play now. Bitcoin used as a lever.

Indeed, always has been always will be  

It doesn't even matter that the chart looked like (looks like) shit to most, the relevance is that like Bitcoin's price, it's market dominance has been on bull run for the past year, and as always, it was never going to last long-term or be sustained. I'm still dubious if altcoins are really going to have a rally here, but it looks like they have about a years worth of trying to catch up at a minimum.

To clarify how it really works; the smart traders stay the fuck away from shitcoins when Bitcoin is pumping - ie for all of 2023. The irony being there are many shitcoins that have doubled in value in 2023, meaning they are only went down around -35-50% against Bitcoin. So there remains a lot of opportunities for shitcoinery, when the concept of a "missed pump" doesn't apply if you were holding Bitcoin, because you can still buy shitcoins at the same fiat prices as 2023 using satoshis, obviously with the intention of increasing satoshis, with fiat values becoming completely irrelevant, it's all about Bitcoin value.

That said, I'm not convinced about a new altseason, it'd require Bitcoin to stabilise and consolidate sideways for a few months. Any dump below $40K will likely have the inverse effect, and Bitcoin's market dominance will simply continue to grow. But ultimately, people want to speculate on coins that are still down 90-95%, as opposed to -35% like Bitcoin, because there is much further upside potential. The shitcoin market is such a filthy arena that you only need 10-20% of trades to go as planned to increase your Bitcoin stash. Pretty sure a monkey or ape could out-trade most of Wall St to be honest.

[philipma1957]

JIM CRAMER says:  Major top in Bitcoin... BTC MAJOR! 🥴

But I sincerely believe he gives spot-on reverse signals  

Unfortunately too many speculators rely on these "reverse signals", because they are right 95-99% of the time. But what about the 1-5% when they actually get it right? No-one mentions it, because if you've been calling a top in Bitcoin throughout 2023, you're eventually going to make a right call is the reality. It reminds me of Il Capo; if you call a top enough times, eventually you'll get it right! No credit necessary...

As for the chart, this is so far going as anticipated, ie buy the rumour sell the news. The Weekly candle, which is the most relevant right now, as is turning into a massive doji reversal, the likes we haven't seen since October 2021, ie with a 10% wick to the upside, nothing else comes close. There were a few in July and August last year, as well as February 2022, prior to price correcting, but nothing as substantial.

In fact, if price ends the week below $44K, with a -10% wick, it'd be the longest bearish wick since June 2019 that was -20%. Obviously this doesn't mean price will definitely move to the downside, only that out of the handful of bearish doji candles in recent years, all of them led to a correction of some sort; whether that was minor or severe. That said, the current structure still remains bullish above $43K.

I have some ladder down buys at

40110 or close to that
39100
38080

down to around
32101

[dragonvslinux]

JIM CRAMER says:  Major top in Bitcoin... BTC MAJOR! 🥴

But I sincerely believe he gives spot-on reverse signals  

Unfortunately too many speculators rely on these "reverse signals", because they are right 95-99% of the time. But what about the 1-5% when they actually get it right? No-one mentions it, because if you've been calling a top in Bitcoin throughout 2023, you're eventually going to make a right call is the reality. It reminds me of Il Capo; if you call a top enough times, eventually you'll get it right! No credit necessary...

As for the chart, this is so far going as anticipated, ie buy the rumour sell the news. The Weekly candle, which is the most relevant right now, as is turning into a massive doji reversal, the likes we haven't seen since October 2021, ie with a 10% wick to the upside, nothing else comes close. There were a few in July and August last year, as well as February 2022, prior to price correcting, but nothing as substantial.

In fact, if price ends the week below $44K, with a -10% wick, it'd be the longest bearish wick since June 2019 that was -20%. Obviously this doesn't mean price will definitely move to the downside, only that out of the handful of bearish doji candles in recent years, all of them led to a correction of some sort; whether that was minor or severe. That said, the current structure still remains bullish above $43K.

I have some ladder down buys at

40110 or close to that
39100
38080

down to around
32101

If support levels break, I think $30K to $40K will be the accumulation level for the next 6 months ish. On the way down and then on the way back up. Unless you're trying to catch a black swan event or capitulation below $25K, I think 6 months of DCA would result in a tidy ~$35K average price personally. Wouldn't be surprised to see a re-test of $47K before end of week though, as the post ETF sell-off has occurred too quickly. Either that or price simply trashes $42K/$43K support level and pretends like it never existed in the first place. One month of volume support currently having no reaction from the bulls which is odd.

[BitcoinBunny]

Jim Cramer and these ETFs need to stay well clear of BTC.
All a bunch of trouble that isn't needed.

If you want BTC, there are avenues to get it. These ETFs are just shoddy smoke screens used by parasitic companies to make money. You don't have the keys when you buy.
Such BS.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[True Myth]

The SEC's Gary Gensler reiterated on live cable TV that "Bitcoin is a highly speculative volatile asset that is used for illegal activity."

These types of statements always piss me off.

Fun Fact Time

We Should Warn People About Crimes Commited With Cash

Then, by assuming that any cash that the surveyed consumers do not fess up to holding must be held for nefarious purposes, he concludes that 34 to 39 percent of all currency in circulation is used by criminals.

https://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?id=1289#:~:text=Then%2C%20by%20assuming%20that%20any,circulation%20is%20used%20by%20criminals.

What About Bitcoin?

The latest Chainalysis numbers estimate that transactions involving illicit addresses made up only 0.12 percent of the total cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2021 and 0.24 percent in 2022.

Other assessments have gauged the share of illicit Bitcoin transactions at 0.1 percent to 5.1 percent in dollar‐​value terms (which the intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force has interpreted to likely be a floor). Even the high‐​end figures in the Review of Financial Studies article estimated that less than a quarter of the total dollar value of Bitcoin transactions through time was associated with illegal activity.

https://www.cato.org/blog/overstating-crypto-crime-wont-lead-sound-policy#:~:text=The%20latest%20Chainalysis%20numbers%20estimate,and%200.24%20percent%20in%202022.

When Bitcoin first emerged, law enforcement officers were "panicking," Meiklejohn says. "They thought these technologies were dangerous and made it harder for them to do their job." But as the arrests and convictions have rolled in, "there's a steady shift toward seeing cryptocurrency as a tool for prosecuting crimes." Even in the strange new world of Bitcoin, FBI Assistant General Counsel Brett Nigh said in September 2015, "investigators can follow the money."

https://www.science.org/content/article/why-criminals-cant-hide-behind-bitcoin

Fuck these idiots who make these statements and never bother to investigate the legitimacy of thier own claims.