Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

...wondering if we're not going to re-test $40k at this rate.

or 30k 

Split the difference?

done, ill go set my buys @ 35k now

But but

Last months been able of buying those prices and cheaper all the time…

i have emergency fiat stashes i keep for occasions like this

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Blackrock iShare Bitcoin Trust ETF has increased their position from $499M to $707M as of 16th January 2024...

Make that $1.06B as of the 17th January 2024

+$300M in 1 day…

Upswing will come, in the meantime HODL strong and BTFD!

Always funny how a long term developing taxonomy is being evaluated from a short term view, regarding that 0,001% tweet  
It seems like the old "It's a bubble" narrative from 10 years ago managed to hold up.

I love how you are referencing Bitcoin as a living/breathing organism!… reminds me of my early days working at a clients operation, you could stand back and just watch the place run, better than a well oiled machine…

But you are right, short term views seem to have a greater impact on people choices. Maybe it’s due to the fact attentions spans are being decimated to quarter mile times! I blame tiktok/IG Reels and YT shorts!

I bet you're right regarding that short attention spans, at least it feels plausible, as far as i can compare with my observations of "close" society.
But: The dynamics behind this behaviour is also able to be explained by (lack of) impulse control and also extrapolation of short-term events onto the mid to far future.
Extrapolation in the means of, for example, a short dip not bought up within a day or two seems to project fearful thoughts between "we're going down moar, soon" and "the whole BTC bubble will pop, soon" in more than just some individuals. While i know these fears personally from my own past, they were always cured by zooming out and remembering myself about the timed market cycles. My impulse responses almost always led me to the wrong decisions, in hindsight. I have to admit though, that i suffer from impulse control disability to a good degree, but i have learned to manage it through awareness and discipline. Two things you can't really expect from a good part of market participants. Becoming a Bitcoiner was awfully accelerating that learning process, to be honest.
On the other hand, short term up's seem to ramp up the number of longs through greed and fomo, and those seem to be liquidated very often when the FOMO is correcting shortly afterwards. I was keeping my hands off leverage for a reason and it was good that way  

EDIT: After thinking over my reply, i guess it's mostly the YOLO (which, in my opinion is half way mistunderstood, see below) society that is prone to impulsive decisions.

And YOLO, the term for "don't care about the future", is in fact a very precious concept, when you look at it the yin-yang way:
There are times you should not care too much about consequences of your decisions, resulting in missing out opportunities you can take only one time in your life.
But there are times, you should indeed care about such consequences, because these could degrade or prematurely end the one precious life you have been born into.
So, YOLO advises one to weigh the importance of the now gainst of that of the tomorrow. That's the way i understand it.

A better term to replace (the half way misunderstood) YOLO! in a more meaningful way would be "Live fast, die young", as we said in the old times  

Enuff of the offtopic now  

But but

Last months been able of buying those prices and cheaper all the time…

i have emergency fiat stashes i keep for occasions like this

I started to build these kind of reserves too, recently.
Just pointed that out a page three pages back or so...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LoyceV]

Correct. The correct value is 0.1%, and that is the daily trade value, not what is held, which is probably higher.

The total gold ETF market cap is 1.7% of all gold.

In my book, 0.1% per day is huge! If they keep this up for a while, especially with the oncoming halving, the scarcity will be felt. And once the scarcity is felt, prices must go up.
Unless of course those ETF guys are going fractional reserve Bitcoin, but that would be Madoff level and I don't think they're willing to take that risk.

[AlcoHoDL]

Don't worry about the price drop. Any seasoned HoDLer knows that this can happen.

Remember: Halving in 3 months -- ETFs approved -- Such economic processes often have long dead times.

Don't act like mindrust -- we all know better than this.

[BobLawblaw]

Fucking Barry Shillbert can't stop dumping... Retarded mother-fucker...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Fucking Barry Shillbert can't stop dumping... Retarded mother-fucker...

He has 500.000+ coins ready to dump.

This is even worse than MT Gox + FTX combined.

Won't be surprised if price will bleed towards $20k - $30k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ivomm]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Just a casual bitcoin meme from 1.5 trillion dollar investment firm Franklin Templeton. For those around a little longer this truly is astonishing. I remember not even daring to say the B-word to friends and family since they would think I had lost my mind obsessing over this fake internet money only used for nefarious purposes.
(btw: still obsessing over this fake internet money, can't seem to put it to rest)

https://x.com/FTI_US/status/1747713266107724191

That is a kind of funny exaggeration.

A lot of folks say that the BTC portion should come from the 40 (of course, the 40 is bonds and the 60 is equities).. so then maybe it would matter how much any one would be so adventurous to invest into bitcoin, and personally, in the last 3.5 years or so, I had been recommending between 1% and 25% into bitcoin for the newbie just getting into bitcoin, and prior to that I had been recommending 1% to 10%.. .. so then where anyone lands would be within his discretion including that anyone studying the space could go outside of the recommending starting range...

so how would Bitcoin affect the 60/40 might be a matter of whether all is taken from the 40 or if some might stay in the 40...

I am also not much for reallocating something like BTC, even though it might work well for some of the traditional assets, especially since there does seem to be some ongoing value to letting your winners ride, even though the winners might end up dominating the other two categories, so there could be some questions regarding how much to keep those categories shrinking if the winner continues to dominate the others.. (not guaranteed to happen, but has historically happened in BTC).

Prepair for a possible $5000 - $10.000 dump.

I'm ready... and my bank account, too  

So you are ready if it dumps $5k to $10k from here?  

What would that be?  $32k to $37k?  

or alternatively you are prepared if it pump from here? what would that be?  $48k to $53k?  how could it be?  How could you be prepared for both?

It's a simple question, but the answer is a little more complicated.

My most beloved insurance company decided to fight again, against all odds, but that is what they do, probably hoping that their opponents... uhm, sorry, "customers" give up or can't pay the lawyer bills. My lucky ass got an insurance for this from a different company as well, btw. As far as i heard from my lawyer, the health insurance company seems to flood the court/"customers" with trials, to decrease the effectiveness of the free service offered by the chamber of labor, which happens to exist in my country, and they have a limited amount of lawyers, which results in a situation that they can't take care of even half the cases. Instead most members get advised on how to do the paperwork and defense at the court themselves. An ugly truth. More and more victims of this flooding give up their rights, because they can't or think they won't make it.
Usual timeframe for the trial is 9-12 months (at best, because of the insurance's court flooding).
Now, i am prepared for that by keeping a fiat reserve for living and extra cost, because i have to live on less income than usual, (part time job in the electronics industry included, which generates about half of my needed income).
Another thing to consider is annual tax refund, which i profit from as a partially disabled person having children, too. I will get the money after declaration in a few months, probably a few weeks after the halvening. In between is the time where i plan to invest in Bitcoin, by DCA (which i limited a bit, recently), and by lump sum investments.
So, if i "risk" my bank account money by buying the down, i could sell pre-2021 corn (tax-free) later on the up, and i get my bank account filled up again by the tax refund. Very little risk, if you ask me. And then there is the fact that if the insurance will lose the trial against me (which is about certain), they have to subsequently pay me all the suspended money. But that is the amount that i do not take into consideration a 100%.
Also, i plan to buy some things to make my astronomical life easier, and more hi-res, which i just delay a bit after tax refund and post-halvening, when i grab a little cash from old corn, so i can buy moar if Bitcoin drops (said $5-$10k).
If there is no such drop, i just continue the DCA-ing and increase the monthyl amount, buy a newer car sooner, something else that makes my life "nicer", or  just increase my fiat reserves a little more, there will be a bear market again, and this will be the time when this reserve will shrink again.
This cycle i also plan to sell on the (projected) 2025 up, so a quarter of my tax-free corn can be converted into more (but taxable) corn about two years later. When these amounts are to be sold later, tax will cut less than 5-10% from the total net. gains, given that tax law stays as-is.

All of that sounds good, even though I get the impression that you are probably selling too much on the way up.. but hey, that's just my impression, since I recall that you considered yourself to be more in accumulation stage rather than maintenance or liquidation stage, so from my own perspective, I believe that any selling on the way up needs to be tempered.. even though surely it does seem that you have a pretty good handle on what you are doing and why you are doing it, which is way more important than what some random dude on the internet (namely yours truly) thinks.

[OutOfMemory]

Don't worry about the price drop. Any seasoned HoDLer knows that this can happen.

Remember: Halving in 3 months -- ETFs approved -- Such economic processes often have long dead times.

Don't act like mindrust -- we all know better than this.

I don't worry so much. Why?
Because the general interest in buying Bitcoin was growing, at the SE and by the average guy. Also, everybody and his dog should know by now that pre-halvening is buying time.
So why care about morons selling at the last-chance-to-buy-low stage?  

EDIT: See?  

All of that sounds good, even though I get the impression that you are probably selling too much on the way up.. but hey, that's just my impression, since I recall that you considered yourself to be more in accumulation stage rather than maintenance or liquidation stage, so from my own perspective, I believe that any selling on the way up needs to be tempered.. even though surely it does seem that you have a pretty good handle on what you are doing and why you are doing it, which is way more important than what some random dude on the internet (namely yours truly) thinks.

That might sound like i'm selling too much on the way up, but i am still oriented at the accumulation side of things. I doubt i would play around with more than a fifth of total holdings, and even these figures feel way higher than i'm willing to take let go of, albeit a part of it will flow back, hopefully near a later bottom. Don't we all love them? I mean bottoms  (*big butt pic here*)
Unless you mean the way up in longer terms, say after another two cycles or more. I will have to take major profits at a reasonable age, when i split my holdings in the "my" and the "rest of the family"/inheritance part(s). The latter should be sold at will by my children, i will not care when and how much.

[philipma1957]

got a piece at 40.2k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

[DaRude]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Doesn't make sense, hodlers are not the problem here. If they don't like paying high fees with GBTC they would just reshuffle into a cheaper ETF but not sodl. Problem is it appears that GBTC had many speculators/arbitrageurs who couldn't care less for the underlying which are now just cashing out, thus the overall net outflows from the ETFs yesterday. GBTC knew their customers, those arbitrageurs were looking to close their position and exit and not for cheaper fees, so it makes sense to charge them 1,5% as they wait for their exit. GBTC know that they're done, they can't compete for new capital with Fidelity and Blackrock even if they drop their fees to 0,3% Initially I thought that GBTC outflows were causing the discount, but now i'm rethinking my cause/effect relationship, and now think that GBTC discount is the one limiting the outflows to about $500MM/day markets can't handle more than that without discount dropping to over 100 basis points.

[Biodom]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Doesn't make sense, hodlers are not the problem here. If they don't like paying high fees with GBTC they would just reshuffle into a cheaper ETF but not sodl. Problem is it appears that GBTC had many speculators/arbitrageurs who couldn't care less for the underlying which are now just cashing out, thus the overall net outflows from the ETFs yesterday. GBTC knew their customers, those arbitrageurs were looking to close their position and exit and not for cheaper fees, so it makes sense to charge them 1,5% as they wait for their exit. GBTC know that they're done, they can't compete for new capital with Fidelity and Blackrock even if they drop their fees to 0,3% Initially I thought that GBTC outflows were causing the discount, but now i'm rethinking my cause/effect relationship, and now think that GBTC discount is the one limiting the outflows to about $500MM/day markets can't handle more than that without discount dropping to over 100 basis points.

there is almost no discount and GBTC is outperforming IBIT.
the sheeple is just being "told" what to do by the media.
EDIT: if someone moved from GBTC to IBIT 5 days ago, they lost about 1.2%, which is worth 9 mo of GBTC fees.
5days vs 9mo-it is quite easy to figure that one, isn't it?

[DaRude]

It seems that the situation is getting from bad to worse by each hour. This is not a normal trading, so to speak of any support line is pointless. The support is when the last bitcoin of Greyscale will be sold. I won't be surprised if we see covid like apocalyptic dump. Too bad I don't have any fiat left to buy moar. I guess the plan is to keep the rate 1.5% until the BTC outflows stop. And then lower it to 0.3%. But people are not so stupid to return to Greyscale knowing that they will raise the rate again. So, instead of leading the parade to 100K, Greyscale chose to be the new far more ominous MtGox. Well, it seems that we have to wait a bit longer to see 100K. Honey badger doesn't care.

Dude...why do you care so much about GBTC when the OVERALL ETF flow is positive?
Besides, I calculate that GBTC is basically on par with their NAV right now (0.18% discount)
All this whining about GBTC is pointless...reminds me about whining about bitcoin's use of electricity.
EDIT: to all GBTC fear mongers: compare 5d chart of GBTC vs IBIT.
Which one outperforms? Sorry, it is GBTC, haha.

Their own site lists discount at -0.47% Bloomberg puts it at -0.956%, and net flow for the ETFs on the 18th at -$135MM thus the price volatility