These are likely not the "in and out" kind of guys that you are painting them to be, and at the same time, the BTC spot ETFs are successful beyond the wildest of expectations and they are generating their own demand/hype to some extent that seems to justify something like a 2x to 3x BTC price appreciation based on flows that are going in the buying direction and NOT likely easy to change, until maybe after the 2x to 3x BTC UPpity plays out... so you are striving and stretching to argue the contrary point of view that does not line up with actual on the ground facts.
This is all speculation, none of this can be attributed actual facts. I'm speculating that they are liable to be weak hands (as per all newbies), you're speculating they'll be strong hands (as per ETF holders).
It is not completely speculation as in a guessing game, and I did not even say that they are strong hands, but I said that they are more likely to be more sticky when they are getting in that kind of product...and my understanding is that they are mostly retail rather than institutions, since it takes institutions way longer to get in and institutions are even more sticky than retail, so the fact that they are retail makes them more likely to have weak hand moments as you asserted, but even if we concede that a decent number of them might easily be weak hands, it still does not support that they are going to be getting in and out as fast as you suggested... and probably, I have no reason to change any of my earlier assessment when we are largely just talking in generalities, in which i think that price pressure is going to continue uppity, and even if you get a correction, it is not likely to be anywhere near your expectations as you currently stated and as you had historically been asserting and continuing to have to move your price targets uppity. Sucks to be you in this particular trade..
It's exactly this type of gray-area speculation I'm not a fan of. It's inconclusive, unpredictable, and only time will tell which theory is correct. Right now, it could be either. Let's be real about it.
That is your level of real.. not my level of real. I think that i am being real when I assign low probabilities to the expectation of going into the $40ks or $30ks and maybe even the lower $50ks is quite a stretch. I might give you 50/50 in regards to the lower $50ks.. .. but hey, it is hard to know.. because quickie crashes can happen, and we just had a quickie crash to the upper $50ks just few days ago.
Sure. I believe in cycles too, and yeah, in terms of the timeline we are closer to March 2020, but part of the problem is that in March 2020, we had not yet reached an ATH.. so we did not get into noman's land or even close, we were still struggling getting past the early July 2019 high of $13,880.. .. so right before the March 2020 crashening (kind of like a quasi-black swan event) we were ONLY dancing with $10k at best which was ONLY half the 2017 ATH.. and in this case we have already breached the 2021 ATH, momentum remains in that direction because buy support is more than keeping up. .... this thing is not overly frothy.. which would be the case if buying support is not able to keep up with the price, which surely is not the current case (ie facts on the ground).
I meant March 2020 time wise, not price wise.
Of course. I don't think I misunderstood you on that point.
But anyhow, yes, it's currently no mans land, we are well beyond dead cat bounce territory here. Price has fully recovered now. However based on certain metrics, we are indeed still in the "belief/denial" stage, which makes sense right?
I am not quite sure what you mean by believe/denial stage.
You believe and I could be in denial.
Yeah, but I don't really care either way. I am just saying what I think will happen. You already bet on down and then you seem to be investing more than warranted into that. I don't tend to get so attached to short term price moves... I just get a bit of an inclination that the odds of going up in no man's land becomes closer to 60/40 rather than 50/50.. and so it might not even be a great difference in the odds, so I hardly even change anything that I tend to normally do, even though I might talk about the ideas of less resistance when in noman's land, even though there could be a lot of battles and even a lot of rapid movement due to inability to keep BTC on the order books... but still does not mean that the trend is anything other than UPpity.. .. with slightly increased odds of up rather than down.
The main issue I have is that we've passed the point of no return based on historical data, and that a macro top is coming soon enough (long before 2025), one that leads to a year-long bear market. This I don't believe, not with the halving this year etc, therefore I don't think we'll have a multi-year bull market if we are close to creating a macro top already, which I agree would be north of $100K. If we do, then so be it, the Bitcoin cycle is destroyed and it all becomes unpredictable, leaving only holding left as a reasonable strategy, at least until more data and price action becomes available.
I agree that we might have a crazy couple of years, but I still get the sense of going up for the next 18 months or so... and yeah, there could be various places to reassess along the way, and yeah, you could be correct that the top plays out more quickly than expected. Seems like a big so what to me. I am not changing very much that I do based on if the top might end up in 2024 versus 2025.
The main thing for me is that I expect the 200-WMA to continue to move up and yeah, maybe every 6 months I might need to adjust what I had placed in [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591]my entry-fuck you status chart[/url] to be more or less conservative than the numbers that I had already placed therein. I already have to adjust the short term to be less conservative.
No way Jose. It is not obvious. In 2021, we had two peaks, so right now the BTC price is not even close to peaking, so it is more like December 2020 when it was passing the 2017 ATH for the first time. ..
I minced by words, I meant in a literal sense price is closer to October 2021. Whether price is more similar to the structure of December 2020 I'm not going to argue over... it's obviously at new ATH level.
Ok
I am prepared for either direction, and I hardly give any shits about either direction, especially since this UPpity is a bit premature.
Yeh, this is kind of the point I'm trying to make. If it's premature for a full blown bull market, then it's likely something else will plug that time gap in the meantime.
Premature does not mean that the buy support is not going to keep up with the premature upward movements in price. I have no clue, but it seems that there is more than enough current buy pressure that likely needs to cause the price to 2x or 3x from here in order to get into a more sustainable place.
But I am not going to fight the facts, which seems to be that we are in the middle of nomans land and heading uppity.. and the best you likely could hope for is that there might be some additional resistance somewhere between $84k and $94k prior to us getting too close to $100k since we should already know that $100k is not going to hold, once we get within a 4-5% of it... Yeah, it is likely to be passed through a few times, but we are at a point of the cycle that you cannot be putting much credit into downity.. the trend is your friend and it happens to be UPpity. and that is how bull markets work.
Once we convincingly break $70K level then I'll (again) change my opinion, as naturally it changes based on price change (as it should), but we are still not there yet. There's nothing yet to prove (at least as I type) that this isn't a fake-out ATH, similar to October 2021. Given I was in complete denial about the fake-out high back then, I won't be making the same mistake here, especially with proof of concept now available.
Bitcoin does not tend to do fake out highs after 2 years of consolidation.. but yeah, sure anything can happen.
I see the price going up. and I don't consider it to be going up too fast, especially given context.
It depends on the context of "too fast". Too fast for there to be a bull run in 2025?
I am not going to try to call any of those kinds of specifics. All I know is we are trending up until we are not... and in order to keep trending up buy support has to keep up. and that could last 6-18 months give or take 5.5 months.
Absolutely, it's basically a few months from a top based on previous overbought levels. Too fast to not go above $100K?
It does not seem like it is going too fast for me... but I tend to be wrong on these kinds of matters.. so I try not to get over-reliant on my expectations.
Absolutely not, it's basically on target, and could go beyond that with ease (the 2x from here theory let's call it). One thing I do think is that we will either reach $100K within a few months, or consolidate sideways for 3-9 months similar to $25K to $30K level (between maybe $50K and $70K), or correct 50% from here or near abouts, being the worst case scenario but far from macro bearish either, but rather bullish long-term to build up momentum for a(nother) 12 month bull run. For reference sake, price is beyond overbought levels of 2019 (that were a weedy 80 on RSI) and closing in on 2021 post-2014 record of around 95. 2017 peaked twice at 90 in June and December. We're currently at 88, so sure, there could be a couple of considerably higher peaks in next 6 months, no denying that.
If are trying to carve out a potential bet then we probably would bet on the correction that you are expecting rather than if there is going to be a top or when the top is going to be and then the correction from the supposed top.. I don't know.. There could be something bettable if you are saying that the BTC price will go below $30k in the next year... that would probably be bettable.
Unless you are saying that the top in 2024 is going to be higher than any top that we might have in 2025, then that could potentially be bettable too. Any bet terms would have to be somewhat unambiguous with a price and a time, and I don't have strong feelings on those kinds of things, so if I did bet, it would either be for funzies or to off-set some kind of seemingly outrageous assertion that you end up making. hahahahahaha
My concern of reaching $100K so soon, as a macro top, would be the entering a year-long bear market in 2024(?), correcting much further than 50%. Maybe the halving would help us out eventually, but given it's based on demand, with a sell off is greater than the buying, along with ETF profit taking (think we can both agree at 2-3x there would be considerable outflows, especially coming off a parabolic top), the havling wouldn't become relevant until price finally stabilises again. Granted, that is most of the possible scenarios I guess, which is kind of the point. It's otherwise the last example I find the most unlikely here.
So you are saying that if the price goes up to $100k before the halvening or some other specific time that you consider to be too soon, then we will get a 50% correction from that and then get stuck in some kind of range for a year or for the rest of 2024? Seems like a lot of legs to that kind of potential bet... we probably would need to narrow it down to numbers (rather than percentages) if we were going to make it bettable from my perspective.
It'd be great to be under the impression that price could go to $100K or $200K, within a few months, with zero considerable downside potential. But really?!
between $120k and $180k to account for the increased demand and seemingly ongoing deficiencies in liquidity.. .. but I am not really saying a few months, but instead that that could well end up being the price range in the latter part of 2024. I don't know. I don't really have too many specifics, just a general sense that we need 2x to 3x price increase just to account for both the increased demand for coins based on the ongoing new ETF entrants and also to accommodate the halvening of the new supply.. both of those forces causing at least a 2x to 3x need for the BTC price increase to accommodate those current and likely future dynamics.
There is something off about your framing... too bad you couldn't have just stayed a bit more of a bulltard, then you would not be in your current situation, wishing for downity that is not very likely to happen.
Again, I'm not wishing for it, it's simply what concerns me the most right now. Most of me would prefer if it didn't happen. There's context to where I bought and where I sold, they were long-term targets that I intended to stick to. The investment was never supposed to be locked up for as long as it was, but alas it paid off. Taking that investment out was intended to be the end of high-risk investments, "degen trading", with money I shouldn't have really been using in the first place, but alas let's see what happens in 3 years time and whether I'm tempted again for another 2x long-term trade.
So my current situation is to be a bit more responsible with investments (let's say I try and improve this on an annual basis, but it doesn't necessary work when tempted by conviction), so I'm very grateful for the situation I'm in. To make a high-risk trade, it pay off, and not suffer from the greed on holding on (like so many do), or otherwise the "loss" of an extra +20%, that contextually wouldn't exist without taking the risk in the first place. There's an old saying that no-one ever went broken from selling at a profit (the context is that many did go broke from trading money they shouldn't have been).
I think that in bitcoin, there has been a historical preference to error on the side of accumulating and holding (rather than trading and especially not using leverage), and I don't see that preference to be changing in the coming 4-10 years or longer.
I am not going to deny large corrections to be both possible, but to have decently high odds of happening. It is also quite possible that BTC prices will settle in the range of $120k to $180k in 2024. and then perhaps (or likely) go higher in 2025, so just between now and $180k, I surely expect some decently-sized corrections, including at least a couple 30% or more that might even get in the 50% plus levels.... but they are still not seeming too likely prior to our at least getting through noman's land, and generally (and historically) speaking once getting all the way through noman's land, it does not tend to be likely to correct all the way back through it.. so call me a sceptic on any theories expecting those levels of corrections, even though they could happen.
My consideration is more based on the decreasing volatility over time, rather than returning to the high levels of volatility as 2017. Many still see 2021 as some sort of price suppression or otherwise, personally I just see it as the natural evolution of reduced volatility that was always projected, especially when an asset reaches >$1T. Not much else to say on that I think.
There is a bit of a war going on.. whether any of us consider that BTC won the war or not, there is going to be pretty considerable volatility in bitcoin for at least the next 15-25 years or longer. So one of the main attributes of bitcoin will continue to be its volatility, even if we might see further and further lessening of such volatility. Sure it could be the case that once bitcoin reaches greater than 10x the market cap of gold, which is another 100x from here, then volatility might start to reduce further, with the understanding that bitcoin is heading to around 1,000x the market cap of gold, but it could take 50-200 years to reach that level of BTC price compared with gold.
I did not say it is impossible. I am still considering the 200-WMA as the bottom and that is currently at around $31,700. But that does not mean that I am going to go argue that we need to revisit those lower prices or to suggest down before up, especially when we are still well in the middle of noman's land, which has an additional UPPity momentum built into the concept.
That's good, fortunately no-one is arguing that we need to revisit those lows that I know of... Let me know if anyone is saying that, as I'd happily argue there is no need to go to $30K, nor $100K right now for that matter, I'd happily point them in the right direction of reality. Bitcoin doesn't need to go anywhere, it just exists. Things that can be considered likely to happen is a different story.
Ok. maybe I misread you... even though I am getting the sense that BTC needs to go to $120k to $180k in order to accommodate the new demand.. . yet I am not even sure if it is necessarily bettable, it is just my general sense at the moment, and if there is a way to make it bettable, I would be interested in hearing about it, especially since you seem to be generally against that framing, and seems to be suggesting that BTC is somewhat "stable" in a kind of $40k to $100k zone? or what is it that you are saying in terms of seeming to differ from my own tentative assertions about where we are at and where we might be going in the next 6-18 months.
when I believe that $100K this year is more than possible. I was hoping there would be more or a balance between "UPonly" and "correction possibly", rather than uber-bullish mentality. I still remember when we used to consider every possible outcome, not be blinded by parabolic moves in the market.
We still consider every possibility, and we assign very low odds to your scenario, such as less than 20%.
You seem to be wanting to assign much higher odds to your scenario, such as, perhaps, higher than 50% odds. You were even suggesting that guys shave off some of their cornz so they can prepare for your scenario. How is that playing out right now?
When did I suggest people sell their coins?
Oh gawd.. you want me to look it up? It was wen you were going on about your having had sold on the way up around $40k and blah blah blah.. about our being on the way down and guys will have to decide whether to sell on the way down... blah blah blah.. You might not have had specifically told guys to sell, but close enough in my interpretation of what you were going on about.
I don't think I've ever suggested anyone sell their coins. To be cautious, sure, but never to sell? You are assuming that just because I am doing something that I think others should be doing the same. Unless others are in the exact same situation as myself, which they aren't, then there would be no reason to be advising others on how to manage their assets would there?
Ok.. fair enough.
It's otherwise playing out very well right now, thanks for asking, I have an overwhelming sense of relief. I thought I might even regret it a bit with price moving higher, but in the fact opposite is true. I stuck to my targets, didn't get greedy, and happily ride the rest of the move with what I feel comfortable with and able to. I feel like I've transitioned from degen to a responsible degen, which is progress.
I am glad that you are happy with your improved approach to life.
#nohomoI otherwise pretty certain I specifically DIDN'T assigned any % to the outcome of say $30K, or $35K. My outcome was purely based on correction or sideways price action.
If you are saying things with a lot of certainty, then you are likely suggesting more than 50%..but whatever, no reason to quibble too much about these potential phraseology matters.
There's no way of realistically telling how deep a correction can go in those scenarios, only maybe maximum based on support levels, or how long sideways price movement can realistically last for (whether it's 3 months or 6 or 9 or a year).
Yes we don't know these things, but we can still have expectations, like you mentioned some of your expectations and I mentioned some of mine.
I'll leave it to the speculators to assign random % chances to certain price targets, as if the percentages are meaningful rather than plucked out of a degen hat
Again, if you had been suggesting the price to go down, then I would imagine that you are assigning a greater than 50% odds to that. unless you specify otherwise... so sometimes you don't have to assign an exact number to have some number that is implied from words.. including when sometimes (or frequently) guys speak in terms of absolutes, which surely have percentage ramifications merely through words.
We all know who's been buying BTC these past two months, and we can talk about the positives of ETF inflows until the cows come home. But what about the negatives? The newbie short-term holders? Are they exempt from scrutiny because they are mainly institutions? No.
Yes. negatives can happen. and even panic. But you are not going to get me to change where I think that we are at
Excellent, good for you, sticking to your principles! (I obviously wasn't trying to... I honestly couldn't give a shit where your buy orders are, no offence! That's your business and strategy, not mine)
Sometimes I talk about them, but they are incremental anyhow, they are not tending to do anything BIG, but sometimes a bunch of them fill and it can end up being a BIG deal that is worth mentioning, whether to the upside or to the downside.
I get the sense that we have already been quite stable through this whole rise from $25k to $69.2k, and only recently did we get a bit more instability, but if the BTC price is bouncing around a bit, that still does not mean it is not going to continue to ultimately move up and to pass through no man's land along with the presumption that it is passing through noman's land.
Likewise, entering no mans land does not mean we are simply going to continuing going up through it. We usually do, but no always. Welcome to 2021, it's a new era.
It might not have been fair to call the second top noman's land.. but whatever those are general frames of reference that might not end up being correct, as you seem to be saying.
But why do it now? Especially when we are both in UPPity and we are in an even more special area of UPpity.. and furthermore we are in a kind of bear punishment mode..
Why did it happen in October 2021 when all the bears eventually got rekt? Why would it happen to all the newbies ETF investors? WhY Oh whY?
Seems that we are being repetitive here... All I am saying is that the ETF investors are likely to be more sticky.. .read that however you will... and I might not even going to be correct, and maybe they will cave like lettuce hands as you seem to be suggesting.. but i am not going to automatically presume them to be selling right after they just got into the product,.. but whatever, we are repeating ourselves about things that both of us have admitted to be difficult to quantify with any kind of precision.
keep calling for down over and over and over...
I'm not even calling for down, you've misread what I've said. I made it clear: consolidation, whether that be downwards or sideways. Cooling off at minimum.
We still disagree.. even though sure, you might be correct, and your rephrasing seems to be less controversial than what I had understood from you earlier.
Even in the "bull market years" of Bitcoin there is price stability that eventually arrives, usually because these UPONLY periods don't last longer than 12 months. This is uncharted territory for sure, but it won't exempt Bitcoin from going through the usually period of correction/sideways price action I don't believe, if anything, the longer it goes on for, the worse it will be.
Sure. What you say is true, but it still does not mean that UP is not going to continue until morale
of the bears improves.
We can agree on this much, price doesn't usually go bearish overnight, especially after a parabolic move to the upside (+100% in about 3 months). It's take some re-test and harsher rejection from new highs, likely a lower high, failing support at lower levels, etc. The type of neutral consolidation that turns bearish. I don't expect price to suddenly reverse to the downside, not given the current bullish momentum.
at least you admit that much.
Some of you traders put way the fuck too much emphasis in various squigglies and you also need to stop the fuck treating Bitcoin as if it were some kind of a mature asset and fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately account for exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (in the Trace Mayer school of thought).. ..
So I shouldn't put emphasis on squiggled on a chart, I should look at squiggles on someone elses chart, then assign random % to certain price targets? This is the way to be a real/true speculator right?
I think that you usually have pretty good analysis, but you also seem to go a little nutso sometimes, which seems to be your current state.. ..
from my perspective... hahahaha
I don't even rely on squiggles anyway, that's a mugs game (no offence, I know you like them really, as long as they are all mathematically squiggled).
I am not really that much into squigglies... even though I come up with various numbers, which yeah, largely are the same as squigglies without making the actual squiggles.
If it did become exempt from usual Bitcoin/market movements, then there will be worse things to come, as that would be official bubble territory that Bitcoin has never experienced before, and all hell could break lose. Fortunately, we're not there yet.
We are far from there, because if you had not noticed, BTC's price was artificially repressed during 2022 and even into until October 2023, which helps to contribute to these kinds of explosive periods to make up for the prior suppression that had been happening earlier.
It's manipulation to the downside but never to the upside, gotcha. Never heard that one before. As if Tether didn't exist
I am not even going to go there.
You are sure spending a lot of time arguing for down, even though claiming to be prepared for either direction.
I know mental right. Having one opinion but being proportionately weighted for either direction. It's almost like I have a bias towards Bitcoin or something?? Doesn't make any sense.
A lot of people say they are bias towards upside, even when they are naysaying on bitcoin... so yeah, do whatever you like. It is a free
world thread, the last time I checked.
It's not like I'm on a Bitcoin forum talking about Bitcoin is it... oh wait. Obviously I am! Maybe I should head over to the fiat forums instead haha.
I am glad that you are interested in bitcoin. There are a lot of folks who come to this forum and they are not interested in bitcoin, so yeah, you don't necessarily seem to be one of those, but we can never really know for sure with any members.
the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved.
Of course new issuance of coins makes a difference, but we have supply squeezes currently that go way beyond the effects of the halvening.. if you had not noticed that.
I had, I'm just being sensible and not basing 2 months of ETF trading with 15+ years of Bitcoin price history, that'd be ridiculous and insulting to Bitcoin itself. You're insulting Bitcoin here.
I am not trying to throw out history, either. There surely are patterns and there are also periods in which dee cornz goes beyond the patterns while still staying within the patterns, but we might not be able to see that it is still within the pattern until we let time pass and we look back upon what had just happened that seemed to be unexpected, but still it was not as crazy as it seemed to be while we were going through it.
Precisely. Price may or may not be going against Bitcoin history/cycles, only time will tell. This could literally go either way right now, so best to be prepared for either direction.
I am still sticking with the idea of 4-year patterns until proven otherwise... but yeah, being prepared for extreme deviation is not outside of realistic preparations.
Price says it wants to continue to go to the upside, the cycle says we should be consolidating. We can't do both very easily here, and for now, I still say the cycles exists until they are broken.
I am saying upside based on current dynamics... but does not mean that I am giving up on the cycle either because going up does not seem to break with the cycle, from my perspective.
We've already seen a fake-out ATH before remember...
No. You are referring to Novemver 2021.. ok.. so what.
but we've never seen the cycle broken, this is as close as we've got so far.
every cycle has some differences from previous cycles.
Either way, it should all start to become clearer after the halving, if not before with a considerably higher ATH, that would likely be a defining moment.
we already had a higher ATH.
I'm not going to start speculating with everyone else that the cycle is broken and the parabolic full blown bull run starts now, although it does seem popular based on current price, that seems like a degen thing to do right now personally. As old school as it sounds, I'd prefer to stick with the current facts and constants based on history rather than the potential theories and variables. Especially when they are based on ETF boys.
better than bargain boyz..
#justsayingSeems like doom and gloom if you believe these newbies are so dumb as to start selling... but yeah, hey anything can happen, and I am glad that at least one of us (you) is putting a decent amount of effort to prepare yourself, so you will be able to tell us "I told you so" when you end up being the ONLY one who saw it.
Lol, I wouldn't be saying that. Especially when I made it clear I'm more 50/50 and sceptical rather than bearish, I'm just outlining worst case scenarios, and I'm far from the only one even if it's a minority opinion. If price had reversed from $48K to say $30K, then sure, I might be saying "I told you so" because I was a lot more confident in that opinion than I am of a reversal from ATH here. More importantly, it's not about saying "I told you so", it's about providing all the available perspectives here, which can be useful to others (I'm not just talking about mine, yours as well).
I don't have problems sharing a variety of perspectives, and sometimes we might argue about whether the perspective is outrageous or not and if there might be something bettable contained in the difference of perspectives.
As an example like when I said that it was likely that price would reverse back to around $48K in 2024, I was a few months off timing wise granted, but most people thought I was insane at that time.
I am not sure what you mean, here.
Oh thanks, I hadn't heard that before. I mean obviously every uber-bull and YouTuber has been spouting >$100K in the next few hours or weeks,
I am glad that you are so original. much more original than the various uber bulls, like yours truly. and I am glad that you consider yourself to be smarter and such an original thinker.. as if some folks with opinions and assessments similar to mine are all parroting one another while you have the true insight and the nuanced perspective that happens to be able to see matters with more clarity.
Obviously that not what I said, meant or think. I simply think there are alternative theories to the dominant one. I'm sorry to hear you feel that way though, that's a tough projection to deal with by sounds of it.
Again, you lost me.
Pure speculation, as has been the theme these past two months. Why don't we wait and find out? Because your theory is completely untested.
Your theory is "more tested" than mine? give me a break.
No, you misunderstood. I'm trying to explain how your theory is AS speculative as mine.
I'm willing to acknowledge it is speculation, are you?
I stand by my original statements in this regard.. no need to negotiate against myself.
It depends on how much you sold. Since you are claiming to not have sold very much then you might be o.k. ... but many times guys like you who sell too much too soon (without admitting it) rationalize themselves into becoming more and more disgruntled. So hopefully your situation is not going in that direction.
Think I already covered this above, but I didn't sell any of my HODL, so there is that. It was taking profits on a high-risk trade
(or in my opinion, the lowest risk trade you can get with Bitcoin every 4 years). So it was a definite minority of my holdings, there is that. As I said, and maybe should of explained better originally, it was around $23K to $48K. There is no loss here. My rationale is that without taking that risk in the first place, I wouldn't be in the position of having X capital now. This also means sure, I wouldn't be opposed to buying around $50K or higher, as long as it's after the halving for example.
It's easy to think with the mindset of "paying more to buy those coins back", but for me, as I explained, it was money I shouldn't have been investing in the first place in reality.
I agree if any of us are overinvested sometimes we need to take some of that off of the table.
Probably predominantly because I didn't take any profits in 2021, it was certainly a way to counter that in the short-term. I really shouldn't have X available to buy a dip or consolidation, but fortunately I do now (which I obviously wouldn't otherwise). And sure, it would have been easy to buy back at $40K, and despite the temptation, I didn't want to "test my luck" after selling at $48K before price reversed.
Ok you were overinvested... no problem.
I am getting the sense that you must not know dee cornz too well.. the cornz is likely to become less stable rather than more stable in the coming 6-18 months give or take 3 months.
Historically, based on 4-year cycles, this isn't necessarily true or accurate I don't believe. Based on reaching a new ATH, then sure, each time it's been highly volatile, whether to the upside or downside.
no disagreement from me on this one.
I was never going to sell the majority of my stash, that would be insane right now.
Selling anything beyond 5% at a time seems like a lot to me.. but hey, I sell about 5% every time the price doubles.. so I suppose I could be similar to you.. even though my BTC stash still seems to be mostly going up and doesn't really shrink very much.. .even though several mistakes have been made along the way, too.
No, sounds you you've sold a lot more Bitcoin from your stash than me personally (based on % that is)
Maybe. I started selling BTC at $250 in 2015 and then buying back at various points (and making adjustments along the way), but it seems that my stash does not really go down very much in the whole scheme of things. I have considered myself to mostly in a maintenance mode since 2015 and also over allocated.
Since 2018, I have sold about a 1% of my HODL I think. But also our situations are different, I'd prefer to put 5-15% in speculating on altcoins in order to double my BTC stash, which generally isn't too difficult, rather than selling %'s when price doubles and trying to buy back lower when there is a correction. Both naturally being speculative strategies. But then again my HODL isn't intended as much more than money that's intended to be passed down to someone after I pass away, not for my own benefit. If price were to reach $200K to $300K, then sure, I'd be tempted to take profits for the first time in years though, can't deny that.
Ok maybe you have sold less than me.. difficult to know. and maybe it does not matter too much.. like you said, different approaches for different folks.. My shitcoin stash is less than 0.5% of my BTC stash.
I was simply selling some scepticism, not even weakness.
Seems a bit misplaced to suffer from so much skepticism from the perspective of this here cat. Especially after going through so much gruelling between May 2022 until about October 2023..
With that investment, I would of needed to feel 90-95% confident that price would continue to the upside, 50-80% is not enough, not by a longshot.
I tend to be 50/50 most of the time with maybe just leanings a few percent one way or another.
and quite frankly, we'll see how it plays out in the immediate term and well as long-term. Long-term I don't doubt it will be beneficial, but short-term, I remain far from convinced (mainly as there is nothing to prove otherwise so far, this is a short-term concept right now). Putting all your faith into the short-term goes against the fundamentals of Bitcoin imo. I refuse to be blinded by these so-called game-changing institutional on-ramps, I'll instead put my faith into Bitcoin, it's cycles, it's fundamentals, and every other technical aspect of it's existence. Not fucking ETFS.
Well you may well be ignoring reality.. because both is going on and happening at the same time.
I don't think I'm ignoring it, I can see exactly what's going on; record inflows into ETFs, 9x the amount of available mining rewards being consumed in day, the real ability to move beyond a $1T market cap. It's all there in black and white, and if it continues as it has done for about a month, then sure price can easily sky rocket to the upside. My issue is simply TIME, as per usual. This is still a short-term concept, despite how positive it has been so far. The only thing that will change that is time, nothing else can. Apart from maybe a time-machine somehow, but they don't exist so there.
both of us can see most of that data, then... but we still might interpret the impact of it differently.
Because ultimately, regardless of this year, I still believe Bitcoin will increase dramatically in 2025 (let's say by 2026), so I'm not rushing to offload my stash here. Just remaining overly cautious.
We have to see how this year and at least part of 2025 play out before figuring out 2026, and you already know the pattern that 2026 would be expected to be a down year... but yeah, we cannot really know this far in advance.. but we can still tentatively keep the cycle frame as you already suggested.
I meant by 2026, ie by end of 2025. But sure, a lot will depend on what happens this year, as well as obviously next year, as to whether 2026 will actually be a bear year. If the full-blown bull run starts this year, then 2025 would more likely be a bear year, if price is to increase dramatically and continue it's parabolic run etc. Until there is more clarity this year, I think the idea of 2026 is impossible to judge, even 2025 for now.
Yes, the cycles can vary from what we had expected. Perhaps?
And again, don't assume you know what I should have been doing or wish I had done. I'm glad I didn't buy at $40K.
You were telling guys to sell in order to prepare for down like you did.
When was I was telling anyone to sell? That sounds like nonsense.
I already covered this above.
Mainly, because I'd never tell anyone to sell. Even if I said something along the lines of it could be last chance to sell around $48K, prior to a drop to $30K, that still wouldn't be TELLING anyone to sell. It would be expressing an opinion. Sure, some people might have sold based on my opinion, but I'm not responsible for anyone's choices here either.
Everyone is responsible for his own trading/hodling/buying choices. That's right.
I already covered this above anyway, but just reiterating...
ditto
I was drawn into this market threw degenerate gambling in August 2021 (degen season), which while was successful and paid off (who wasn't successful?), I realised it wasn't why I wanted to be invested in Bitcoin (it's not just about the cRaZy GaInZ). I'd prefer to exercise more caution these days, focus more on portfolio balancing and risk aversion, rather than chasing every pump and percentage that comes the markets way. Based on everything I'd said, I believe I have reason to be cautious right now, rather than being blinded by the ETF hype and inflows that are a short-term districations (as explained), and instead focus on Bitcoin and how it's always been.
Well if you are a long term investor rather than a trader, then congratulations and welcome to the club... yet I still have my doubts, especially since you spent a quite a bit of effort prognosticating doom and gloom which causes me to think that you are not very long and you may have sold too much too soon with anticipation of getting further long, and you may well have over did it.
I've always been a long-term investor, much more of a hodler than you since 2018 as documented! The difference is I'm willing/able to separate a hodl position from a mid-term trade,
Maybe I read you wrong? You always seemed more of a trader than this here cat... from my perspective.
likewise separate a trading account from a hodl. Sure there was initialy risk in doing that, but once you've made your initial back, you can gamble on the house for more satoshis. It's easy to say you shouldn't waste your time trading Bitcoin, but what if the only option you have is a short to mid-term trade, and you don't have the luxury of holding a position long-term. Has that ever been considered? This isn't even including the benefit of being able to 2x your capital, and then having X available as dry powder for Bitcoin (that you otherwise wouldn't have right?)
I think that I am more of an incrementalist.
I'm generally failing to see the lack of benefits here. And sure, this profit could end being invested at a higher price then you sold (god forbid!), it could even end up being $100K or $200K (mental!), but profit is profit. It didn't cost you anything to produce, only some time and convinction.
bitcoin is like that generally. I feel that I have died and won the lottery, largely in late 2016 and even early 2017, I had pretty much started outperforming expectations and making up for prior years of mediocre performance.. so yeah, just ongoing compounding of value since 2015 that really started to sink in in late 2016, into 2017 and then surely continuing after that, too.
By the way it is hard to go along with your proclamation that you are no longer a degenerate trader when you are espousing trading ideas and trying to predict price movements. I already said that I believe that my own strategy does not do any of that, and so my sales on the way up and my buying on the way down are largely intended just to provide insurance and there seems to be some empowerment with the ongoing employment of such a system that largely attempts to not get attached to short-term price moves.... even though it is not completely detached since it does involve buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but I don't really consider that to be trading.. merely a form of price/volatility insurance...especially since both of us likely realize that one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin is its volatility.. both historically and also in the present and in the years to come.. at least 20 years or more of outrageous price volatility expected as being more or less inevitable.
I think I've tried to explain this to you before: I don't bother explaining my HODL strategy, it should be self explanatory. It's called HODLING, there is literally nothing else to elaborate on.
I tend to call mine maintenance... so once we get through accumulation, the next phase is maintenance, and then after that liquidation.. but there might not really be a need to get to liquidation because maintenance may well be sufficient to cover liquidation at whatever level is necessary.
There are no charts worth referencing, and it's certainly not about selling 5% when price doubles and buying back when/if price corrects, I'll leave that to the traders such as yourself.
I don't consider myself a trader. I offset risk.
Because even if you try and deny that you trade your stash, which personally I think is insane, but that's your choice, then this is exactly what you are doing.
that's how I frame it, and I am not going to stop.
The fact you do it in a low-risk manner doesn't mean it's any less trading, only what would be considered low-risk trading. Not to mention you've no doubt made more trades in the past 12 months than me right now, which is iroinic, even if I wouldn't consider it particularly degenerate (even though I would always consider trading a hodl stash as degenerate to some degree). But then again, maybe you have an allocation of HODL and an allocation of trading for I know, rather than it all being in the same basket as it were.
I had explained my strategy in a lot of places. you can look at
my investment ideas thread if you want to go through it and point out all of the contradictions that you perceive.
As crazy as it might sound, I have more than one strategy though and always have, and these days it includes maybe a long-trade once every 2-4 years, as well as speculating on altcoins in order to increase sats once every 4 years. Because otherwise my strategy of "do nothing" would be somewhat boring and incomplete to put it simply, especially when there are ways to accumulate more Bitcoin without investing your own money as it were, but using profit instead.
If I had not offset the risk by implementing my system (selling on the way up and buying on the way down), there would have likely been no way that I would have been able to hold as many BTC as I have held because I would have gotten nervous from the volatility, so my strategy is to take advantage of the volatility in order that it does not have an effect on me as much as it would if I employed a more pure HODL strategy.
If I was a degen trader, I'd be trying to catch every pump and every move, taking profits when price simply increases *cough cough *. Sure I used to trade a lot more in the past, but generally I've found that the less trades you make, based on higher capital and lowest risk possible, is just as profitable without all the effort. You can basically save a lot of time and effort with this low-frequency strategy, rather than a higher-frequency strategy, probably why I also haven't been on the forums as much either for that matter.
I don't change my behavior based on anticipating price direction, so in that sense the price comes to me and I don't go to the price or try to predict it in terms of my system. I would not call it high frequency, but just playing swings, with any sales there is no expectation to buy back.. but if buy backs end up happening, then so be it.. make lemonade out of lemons.
And sure, HODLing has always been the most profitable for me based on $$$ value increase, purely because it's around 85-95% of my holdings, but otherwise trading shitcoins has always been better % gains (against Bitcoin), but this only reflects 5-15% of my holdings. A degenerate would think "but if you make more money from trading, then you should trade most if not all of your stash right?" No, that's not me.
I don't try to make money from selling on the way up and buying on the way back down. It is merely a way to offset volatility, and probably more of a psychological thing that seems to help quite a bit. and in the end, even though I am not trying to make money, it does seem to make money too.. kind of a side bonus.. .. but still considered by me to be maintenance rather than trading.
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