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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 1 (2.3%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (2.3%)
$80K to $85K - 1 (2.3%)
$85K to $90K - 7 (16.3%)
$90K to $95K - 12 (27.9%)
$95K to $100K - 5 (11.6%)
>$100K - 16 (37.2%)
Total Voters: 43

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26492455 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Biodom
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March 20, 2024, 03:19:05 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10)

Another $440 million outflow from you know who...

50 dumps of Grayscale.


 Roll Eyes

So another day of -1%, leaving them with ~58% from what they started with on 11Jan. Speculators will speculate on how low they'll go, and how fast they'll get there, but it won't be too long before they fade into history.

The CEO claimed that once outflows hit $12 billion they will lower the ETF fees.
I believe they are close to/over that mark now.

Something to do with covering probable fines or whatever. You can find the details if interested.

Whatever happened here exactly, we will probably find out eventually.

Usually, someone ends up behind bars it seems.  Cheesy

The behaviour of those who run away from the high fee is completely understandable. The funny thing is that the individual wisdom of running away from 1.5% fee leads to collective stupidity causing the current stall of the bull run. But I am not convinced that the fee is the main reason for these outflows. I've read some opinions that most of them didn't go in any other ETF company. May be the reason is that there are many people/companies that have had their funds locked up for years at a loss and are now rushing to release them at a very good profit.

A while back I quoted a long twitter thread where some pretty shady dealings of DCG/Genesis, investigated by SEC were discussed. It was funny for me that Boidom refuted them, as made up by me?!? Then what about the hundreds of pages on Internet? Are they also made up by me?  I will add just one quote from the many written on the matter:

Back in November, DCG's CEO Barry Silbert seemed optimistic that the company could weather the storm. Since then, however, things seem to have gotten worse because the company is under investigation and it has closed down its wealth management division called HQ this month. Moreover, Genesis sent home 30% of its staff this January after making a 20% employee cut in August last year.
https://www.bankfrick.li/en/news-and-insights/the-dcg-genesis-and-grayscale-saga-explained

But of course for each train there are passengers. There will be people, (later Boidom confessed he is a Greyscale investor), who will keep money in Greyscale, believing everything is fine. So, Greyscale won't go down to 0BTC, probably. The real bull run will start when they stop flooding the market with thousands each day.


To the substance: I don't understand the obsession what @ivomm, @BitcoinBunny and @dragonvslinux display with regards to GBTC.

Like, who gives a f-k as long as the peg is maintained? So far it has been very orderly and helped inflows to other ETFs.
About the 1.5% fee and the endless discussions of it: again, it matter only in years, especially since they trade at peg to NAV or even with a small premium.
Incidentally, some other ETFs are trading at a small discount:
https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav

0.5% discount=4 months worth of GBTC fees, lol
Naturally, the 1.5% fee could cause small diffusion in time, but current flows are caused by something else.
Personally, I did not like the fact that the flows continued, so I divested 2/3 at a premium, kept 1/3 just in case premium would increase (posted this beforehand), which is contrary what the "crowd" expects, but very well may happen due to collaboration between Greyscale and Goldman Sachs.
Maybe those three peeps were short GBTC? I dunno, they seem to have a lot of venom against poor little Barry.

Finally, who is that Boidom?
Either spell it right or not at all, pal.
bitebits
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March 20, 2024, 03:39:21 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

[...] If anything, the lack of inflows at current price is more of a concern in the immediate term, with Blackrock recording their lowest inflows to date of only $75m, compared to an average of $277m. Especially when the record of $849m was made at $70K prices. [...]


We had an 11% drop yesterday and non of the ETF's had outflows. Inflows even. Not sure how that possibly can be 'a concern in the immediate term'. Seems the ETF buyers know what they are getting into.
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March 20, 2024, 03:51:09 PM
Last edit: March 20, 2024, 04:12:57 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by OgNasty (1), JayJuanGee (1)

To the substance: I don't understand the obsession what @ivomm, @BitcoinBunny and @dragonvslinux display with regards to GBTC.

Like, who gives a f-k as long as the peg is maintained? So far it has been very orderly and helped inflows to other ETFs.

The only relevance to me is based on potential selling pressure, as I explained above. We've seen consistent outflows in the past 2 months and it's fair to assume that will continue (irrespective of price), until it no longer does or slows down to become insignificant. Naturally these outflows weren't that relevant when the overall inflows of ETFs outweighed the outflows when price was trending upwards, especially when a lot can be attributed to GBTC holders moving to other ETFs. However this week, similar to January correction, the outflows are again outweighing the inflows. It means that GBTC is significant when it comes to selling pressure, at least at present. Even if just one of many factors including miners reserves (that last I heard they hold 1.82m BTC), liquidiations, even exchange holdings, etc.

Your questions in general seem better directed to GBTC holders, rather than myself and potentially others. I actually agree with what you're saying overall though. Why do holders care if GBTC is holding it's peg, why bother move to Blackrock just because the fee is currently lower (when next year it could be same as GBTC anyway). But this "why the outflows" question isn't relevant to me, only the data, that shows outflows.

[...] If anything, the lack of inflows at current price is more of a concern in the immediate term, with Blackrock recording their lowest inflows to date of only $75m, compared to an average of $277m. Especially when the record of $849m was made at $70K prices. [...]


We had an 11% drop yesterday and non of the ETF's had outflows. Inflows even. Not sure how that possibly can be 'a concern in the immediate term'. Seems the ETF buyers know what they are getting into.

Overall, there was $362 million outflows, following $154m on Monday. You're right that except for GBTC none of the ETF's had outflows. This is somewhat irrelevant if the overall sum of inflows and outflows ETFs is negative (selling pressure), especially with GBTC holding $26 billion in Bitcoin still, selling an average of $277m per day. If not obvious, the inflows from other ETFs needs to be higher than the outflows from GBTC, in order for there to be overall positive inflows (buying pressure). Cherry picking the data and ignoring GBTC, while relevant to new investor interest, isn't relevant to buying/selling pressure at present.

The concern should be obvious. If there are more outflows than inflows as there has been this week, then there is selling presure from ETFs (overall), not buying pressure. And for the avoidance of doubt, there has been a very strong correlation between overall inflows with price increase and overall outflows with price decrease, so this buying/selling pressure is far from theoretical, even if not tested long-term yet.

The reference to "immediate term" should be obvious; during the period where GBTC is offloading Bitcoin. Without that, the inflows would still be positive despite the price correction, so isn't applicable long-term.
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March 20, 2024, 04:03:25 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
criptoevangelista
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March 20, 2024, 04:57:04 PM

Are you a Bitcoiner and having problems?

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March 20, 2024, 05:03:25 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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March 20, 2024, 05:22:52 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), criptoevangelista (2)

Are you a Bitcoiner and having problems?



you do know every one of us in the entire world has satoshis direct private phone number for any issues. except that other guy though. fuck that guy.
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March 20, 2024, 05:47:48 PM

Are you a Bitcoiner and having problems?



I don't know.  It seems like the market is starting to turn on Saylor now that it's been shown he's cashing out hand over fist using MSTR as a vehicle to get a massive premium on his purchased BTC.  I think if he doesn't come out and say that he's also buying BTC personally with all the USD he's cashing out daily from MSTR it might only be a matter of time before the Bitcoin community looks to tar and feather him.  You got to give it to him though.  His scheme of buying up the price of BTC and then selling off shares of MSTR at a huge premium is one of the bigger brained investment moves I've ever seen.
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March 20, 2024, 06:00:23 PM

Are you a Bitcoiner and having problems?



you do know every one of us in the entire world has satoshis direct private phone number for any issues. except that other guy though. fuck that guy.

Faketoshi would make a good season of American Horror Story
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March 20, 2024, 06:03:27 PM


Explanation
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March 20, 2024, 06:06:08 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JimboToronto (1), criptoevangelista (1)

Faketoshi would make a good season of American Horror Story Anglo-Australian Clown Story

FTFY
criptoevangelista
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March 20, 2024, 06:14:59 PM

Faketoshi would make a good season of American Horror Story Anglo-Australian Clown Story

FTFY

 Cheesy Cheesy

perfect

thank you
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March 20, 2024, 06:15:57 PM

Faketoshi would make a good season of American Horror Story Anglo-Australian Clown Story

FTFY
Lol. Now that you have fixed that we gotta find a scriptwriter to put it all together ASAP.  Grin

It is going to be one helluva Anglo-Australian Clown Story.
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March 20, 2024, 06:41:02 PM

<snip>

OT: Still deciding on the exact choice of security camera, but i want remote recording. Not cloud-based, but using a wireless hub that connects to my home network via cable or wifi). Why? Because if video is stored on the camera itself, it would be too easy to just grab the sd card after destroying the cam, which means evidence gone. There's also a chance to scare them annoying crows away via built-in speakers on some models, if that doesn't freak out the horses). I put a fat lock on the front/loading door yesterday.



Never connect security cams via wireless, the thief with minimal knowledge will have $2 deauther device running in auto-attack mode in his pocket. Actually to a knowledgeable thief a wireless cam like a cam imitation serves more as an invitation than working as a repellent.

Personally I've found $30 PoE cams from China fitting my needs perfectly well, hell you even get PTZ HD cams for under $100. Ofcourse these cams need to be in an isolated subnet that is only connected to the videoserver (this applies to every other brand too, because you do not want data leaking and also you do not want to get part of a botnet attacking whatever high-profile target).

I use Zoneminder in two separate installations and it hasn't disappointed me yet and has a very open architecture that allows you to extend it in all directions. If you fit a good videocard (good, like in CUDA-capable) into the zm server you can even get it to detect (and recognize) objects and persons (i.e. no alarming if missus or kids are walking through the yard, but alerts for everything else as long as it is a person and not a stray cat).

HTH

Thanks for pointing me to Zoneminder  Cool
I have a spare Raspberry Pi4 lying around here, my access points support two SSID's, i can also put up a wifi router for an extra wlan, last not least i got an old Netgear wifi router with dd-wrt on it, which is not bad acting as a bridge. Gotta look for RTSP capable cameras.
The cameras will be camouflaged using old toys of the kids.
The chance of somebody jamming the surveillance network is very low, at the countryside full of simple minded people, i'm even impressed they can actually use Smartphones... But the risk, while low, is still there.
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March 20, 2024, 06:59:38 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10)

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March 20, 2024, 07:00:35 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

OT: Still deciding on the exact choice of security camera, but i want remote recording. Not cloud-based, but using a wireless hub that connects to my home network via cable or wifi). Why? Because if video is stored on the camera itself, it would be too easy to just grab the sd card after destroying the cam, which means evidence gone. There's also a chance to scare them annoying crows away via built-in speakers on some models, if that doesn't freak out the horses). I put a fat lock on the front/loading door yesterday.

Just FWIW, it seems that often cameras have ONVIF and/or RTSP even if they are supposed to be cloud cameras so you can block them at your firewall. Not as ideal as something purely local but it seems there are fewer options for that and they cost more.
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March 20, 2024, 07:03:24 PM


Explanation
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OutOfMemory
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March 20, 2024, 07:16:31 PM

OT: Still deciding on the exact choice of security camera, but i want remote recording. Not cloud-based, but using a wireless hub that connects to my home network via cable or wifi). Why? Because if video is stored on the camera itself, it would be too easy to just grab the sd card after destroying the cam, which means evidence gone. There's also a chance to scare them annoying crows away via built-in speakers on some models, if that doesn't freak out the horses). I put a fat lock on the front/loading door yesterday.

Just FWIW, it seems that often cameras have ONVIF and/or RTSP even if they are supposed to be cloud cameras so you can block them at your firewall. Not as ideal as something purely local but it seems there are fewer options for that and they cost more.

Thanks. First i was after TP-Link, because somebody i know as a versatile tech started using them and was satisfied. He's not much of a IT-security guy, so there's that. TPL abandoned RTSP in their newer models, and there are some quirks to become aware of to be able to choose a good model. Cloud recording would be a no-go, i also want to have remote access, but only through a tunnel/forward on my router's firewall using some dynamic dns service. No fancy cloud app with registering at the manufacturer needed (nor wanted).

EDIT: I wonder if this dip is more or less over...
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March 20, 2024, 07:18:34 PM

O.T. Another 2 hours until the vernal equinox (N. hemisphere).

It snowed a bit in Toronto today but not enough to stick on the ground or bother the flowers that are already budding and showing hints of their colors.

Winter's last gasp. Bring on the spring.

 I definitely picked the wrong day to start the interlocking patio repair.
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March 20, 2024, 07:48:41 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com


buddy has picked badger up off the floor. when 66?
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