Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[1714722244]

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[Bravut]

Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol

Yes, but you can take my opinion with a dose of salt as I've been sceptical about this rally since $48K  

According to Pi Cycle Top, as discussed elsewhere, $70K is either the mid-cycle top (like in 2019, 2016 and 2012), prior to a correction and consolidation, or this is the late-stage top, ie start of full blown bull market, like in 2020, 2017 and 2013. Based on time, I see this as a mid-stage not a late-stage top, especially given this indicator has "factored in" a new ATH being at this mid-stage top, and has previously been the most accurate at identifying these types of tops. This would otherwise be the first time there has been no "mid-stage correction" in Bitcoin's history, so while possible, the argument is that "this time it's different" - which is a fair argument given the introduction of ETFs and new ATH already. But only time will tell whether this is actually true or not, with the recent break of ATH not being enough to justify that speculative opinion as of yet.

More than anything I think ETFs are following the price, not leading it. There has been net inflows on the way up and net outflows on the way down generally speaking, even if they are helping to drive the price in both directions. All it will take is for GBTC to offload the rest of their coins, which may only take a couple of months from here, but until then and seeing net outflows, there remains selling pressure.

Based on price alone, either $69K breaks to the upside and price rallies further, or otherwise $60K breaks to the downside, leaving a pretty sizeable volume gap down to $52K at best, but more realistically $42K to $44K (which would still be a macro higher low). Also within a couple of months the 50 Week MA will be around these prices too, so bullish continuation could start from there quite easily. Based on 200 WMA projection, it should be around $37K by August (that was also a consolidation level) and would be a full -50% haircut, which is about as low as I see price going for now, if the correction lasted 4 months.

I'm otherwise overlooking the shorter-term TA on 4hr, as while price is currently confirming resistance around $68K (bearish trending 50 MA and ichimoku cloud at volume point of control), this could all still be broken with ease after another re-test of the 200 MA that previously supported the price perfectly (as expected in strong uptrends) and is currently around $62K. Too early to tell comes to mind here.

Nice Analysis from you.
The market is simply looking for more zones to liquidate before any move, as you have said its too early to sell now. Currently looking from the 2hr chart we can see that bitcoin might likely test $61k before any move since there is a strong support level before raiding the highs, Technically.
  I would suggest any part sell can begin after the halving, but now we should be looking forward to accumulate as much as we can.

[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

Quite impressive to have a huge green candle yesterday.

The ETF inflows is close to zero and the outflows (GBTC) is high.
Shows the stupidity of people I guess, when prices were soaring, people were buying ETFs like crazy. Now, a week later when BTC is cheaper, they are nowhere to be seen..

Wasn't expecting that, would of thought inflows were positive based on the buying pressure. 3.8K Bitcoin is a fair amount of corn to scoop up from ETFs. Reclaiming $69K will likely bring back the ETF volume imo though, this would help to nullify the fake-out ATH scenario with a bullish weekly wick. Either that or $68K get's confirmed as a resistance level for the time being. This is otherwise the first real test of short-term resistance since $40K levels based on cloud, MAs and volume, so I can understand with the hesitancy from ETF investors on this one, given they quite clearly aren't in the market to buy dips.

Still you ignored my counters to your bet proposals with some of my own bet proposals - but some of this is looking more in your favor currently.... and so I am a bit surprised by how much consolidating (or the correction down to nearly $60k-ish.. .yet there could still be something bettable in terms of my saying that BTC prices would probably not go below $40k ever again and/or they would not go less than 20% above the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025.. and surely I am ONLY considering those as slightly better than 50/50..

so I am potentially giving you pretty good betting terms, versus the vague-ass shit that you had been outlining earlier.. with the 50% drop and blah blah blah. .but without hardly any parameters.. hahahahahaha... so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k... and I might even feel that way all the way up to $160k.. except the problem is that the higher the price, the more chances that we could end up getting a 50% drop if we go up to the price too quickly, and since we were already at around $70k-ish (or was it $72k-ish) when I made that proclamation, I thought that there is almost no way that we could end up going up to $80k too quickly that would end up triggering a 50% drop.  But, hey, I know anything is possible, I am just figuring out some parameters for a 50/50 bet in which I consider the odds are in my favor and how I might be able to distinguish between what we had been saying. and you are currently still anticipating $36k-ish to still be in the cards...and even supposedly to have greater than 50% odds of happening.. at least that has been the way you had been speaking prior to my proposing the bet possibility.

Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol

I remain of the opinion that you should be willing to live with the possibility of not being able to buy back anything that you sell, otherwise don't sell it.

You don't sell to buy back cheaper when you have the most pristine asset the world has ever seen and if you feel that you don't have enough.

Now if you feel that you have enough, or more than enough, then sell some. .and if you end up being able to buy back cheaper that is icing on the cake, but I would not expect to be able to buy back cheaper.. that is retarded (or maybe just expecting too much).

The point is Saylor strategy about Bitcoin is working.

His strategy about bitcoin is working because he is a strong believer in investing in assets with scarcity and high demand. Bitcoin stands out as one of such assets due to its capped supply of 21 million coins, making it highly scarce. Saylor has already predicted the continued growth, projecting a 200% annual increase over the next decade and he is putting his money where his mouth is.

I would suggest a 20% to 50% annual increase of the 200-WMA is more realistic in terms of attempting to predict the future from the past.. you cannot continue with the same historical rate of 2x per year, it does not make sense especially since the slope of the increase has been getting less steep with the passage of time.

[edited out]

Thanks! Since I have no clue about trading and reading charts, this is helpful. What I have a clue about (or experience in) are the fake rallies after some “good news” whales use to create fomo. And that Jerome Powell news from yesterday was the perfect reason for whales to create another fake pump just do dump very hard later. They did this so many times that I’m so sick of this strategy. But of course there is always the chance that “this time it’s different”. Well I missed to sell at 67-68k. Now I won’t sell at 65-66k. Either I wait for another small pump or I take my coins off Binance and go into hodl mode again.

For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.

Good luck with that.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[xhomerx10]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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[Zeunerts]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[BitcoinBunny]

Grayscale




Black Rock:

[goldkingcoiner]

Grayscale




Black Rock:

This is so much better than explanatory text.

[Bravut]

For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.

Good luck with that.

Seems he has no clue about how the market works and simply relies on the price movement rather than logics behind it, no doubt most persons come to the bitcoin market only during bull run.


Glad, you share insights on this.

[ChartBuddy]

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[BitcoinBunny]

For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.

Good luck with that.

Seems he has no clue about how the market works and simply relies on the price movement rather than logics behind it, no doubt most persons come to the bitcoin market only during bull run.


Glad, you share insights on this.

It is a correct notion to think that most people come to Bitcoin during bull runs and FOMO in and that in fact shows that price movement and emotion are intrinsically linked.

Thus you need to do the opposite of the emotive crowd.

In which case I'm not so sure UnDerDoG81 has it wrong necessarily.

We have seen many cases in which we are waiting on X, now the halving, only for that to turn out to be a big old nothing burger and we just slide down.

"Logic" tells us that with the massive ETF inflow and the halving we should see 100K.
But it also won't surprise me that we first dump and get to 100K next year instead.