Quite impressive to have a huge green candle yesterday.
The ETF inflows is close to zero and the outflows (GBTC) is high.
Shows the stupidity of people I guess, when prices were soaring, people were buying ETFs like crazy. Now, a week later when BTC is cheaper, they are nowhere to be seen..
Wasn't expecting that, would of thought inflows were positive based on the buying pressure. 3.8K Bitcoin is a fair amount of corn to scoop up from ETFs. Reclaiming $69K will likely bring back the ETF volume imo though, this would help to nullify the fake-out ATH scenario with a bullish weekly wick. Either that or $68K get's confirmed as a resistance level for the time being. This is otherwise the first real test of short-term resistance since $40K levels based on cloud, MAs and volume, so I can understand with the hesitancy from ETF investors on this one, given they quite clearly aren't in the market to buy dips.
Still you ignored my counters to your bet proposals with some of my own bet proposals - but some of this is looking more in your favor currently.... and so I am a bit surprised by how much consolidating (or the correction down to nearly $60k-ish.. .yet there could still be something bettable in terms of my saying that BTC prices would probably not go below $40k ever again and/or they would not go less than 20% above the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025.. and surely I am ONLY considering those as slightly better than 50/50..
so I am potentially giving you pretty good betting terms, versus the vague-ass shit that you had been outlining earlier.. with the 50% drop and blah blah blah. .but without hardly any parameters.. hahahahahaha... so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k... and I might even feel that way all the way up to $160k.. except the problem is that the higher the price, the more chances that we could end up getting a 50% drop if we go up to the price too quickly, and since we were already at around $70k-ish (or was it $72k-ish) when I made that proclamation, I thought that there is almost no way that we could end up going up to $80k too quickly that would end up triggering a 50% drop. But, hey, I know anything is possible, I am just figuring out some parameters for a 50/50 bet in which I consider the odds are in my favor and how I might be able to distinguish between what we had been saying. and you are currently still anticipating $36k-ish to still be in the cards...and even supposedly to have greater than 50% odds of happening.. at least that has been the way you had been speaking prior to my proposing the bet possibility.
Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
I remain of the opinion that you should be willing to live with the possibility of not being able to buy back anything that you sell, otherwise don't sell it.
You don't sell to buy back cheaper when you have the most pristine asset the world has ever seen and if you feel that you don't have enough.
Now if you feel that you have enough, or more than enough, then sell some. .and if you end up being able to buy back cheaper that is icing on the cake, but I would not expect to be able to buy back cheaper.. that is retarded (or maybe just expecting too much).
The point is Saylor strategy about Bitcoin is working.
His strategy about bitcoin is working because he is a strong believer in investing in assets with scarcity and high demand. Bitcoin stands out as one of such assets due to its capped supply of 21 million coins, making it highly scarce. Saylor has already predicted the continued growth, projecting a
200% annual increase over the next decade and he is putting his money where his mouth is.
I would suggest a 20% to 50% annual increase of the 200-WMA is more realistic in terms of attempting to predict the future from the past.. you cannot continue with the same historical rate of 2x per year, it does not make sense especially since the slope of the increase has been getting less steep with the passage of time.
[edited out]
Thanks! Since I have no clue about trading and reading charts, this is helpful. What I have a clue about (or experience in) are the fake rallies after some “good news” whales use to create fomo. And that Jerome Powell news from yesterday was the perfect reason for whales to create another fake pump just do dump very hard later. They did this so many times that I’m so sick of this strategy. But of course there is always the chance that “this time it’s different”. Well I missed to sell at 67-68k. Now I won’t sell at 65-66k. Either I wait for another small pump or I take my coins off Binance and go into hodl mode again.
For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.
Good luck with that.
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