Still you ignored my counters to your bet proposals with some of my own bet proposals - but some of this is looking more in your favor currently.... and so I am a bit surprised by how much consolidating (or the correction down to nearly $60k-ish.. .yet there could still be something bettable in terms of my saying that BTC prices would probably not go below $40k ever again and/or they would not go less than 20% above the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025.. and surely I am ONLY considering those as slightly better than 50/50..
My bad, I might had missed your counter offer, but got the impression you weren't interested in the vagueness of a 50% drop in 2024, as per below. As I said before, until there was a top formed/forming, there wouldn't be any bet I'd be willing to make on where a 50% correction came from, as it would be a complete stab in the dark (ie $80K, $100K, etc), only that I think it would in 2024.
That is pretty vague, and I probably would even agree with the proposition that the chances are greater than 50% that there will be a drop of 50% or more in 2024, and there are a lot of ways that could end up happening, so it is hardly even revealing that it is possible to come, but since I already said that I believe that the BTC price is not going to drop below $40k (that I am willing to bet on it), then I have already suggested that I believe that there is not going to be any 50% or greater drop until the BTC price gets at least above $80k..
And, yeah, maybe I am ONLY slightly more confident than 50/50, and i would even be willing to lose such a bet because I think that my bet is reasonable within our current circumstances... Of course, the closer that we get to $40k, such as even breaking below $60k, then I am going to lose confidence in my assertion that we are never going below $40k and I may well withdraw my bet if it were not to be entered into prior to breaking below $60k.. because if we go below $60k and stay there then maybe the odds become less than 50% at that time that we would never go below $40k.
so I am potentially giving you pretty good betting terms, versus the vague-ass shit that you had been outlining earlier.. with the 50% drop and blah blah blah. .but without hardly any parameters.. hahahahahaha...
You were wise to not take that bet then
I am not sure about wise.. since ultimately, if either of us were to identify a potential bet, we would still have to narrow it down, and by the time we narrow it down, then it may well become too unbettable...or maybe the terms might not even be sufficiently interesting.
so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k... and I might even feel that way all the way up to $160k.. except the problem is that the higher the price, the more chances that we could end up getting a 50% drop if we go up to the price too quickly, and since we were already at around $70k-ish (or was it $72k-ish) when I made that proclamation, I thought that there is almost no way that we could end up going up to $80k too quickly that would end up triggering a 50% drop. But, hey, I know anything is possible, I am just figuring out some parameters for a 50/50 bet in which I consider the odds are in my favor and how I might be able to distinguish between what we had been saying. and you are currently still anticipating $36k-ish to still be in the cards...and even supposedly to have greater than 50% odds of happening.. at least that has been the way you had been speaking prior to my proposing the bet possibility.
At current price (between $60K and $70K roughly), I'm pretty neutral about whether there will be such a correction from here, or higher levels, like $80K.
It is possible, but I would place it at less than 50/50, and that was part of the thing that I was getting worked up about either your earlier assertion that we would go to the lower $30ks (from the correction at $49k, remember) or your later assertion that we would go to the mid to upper $30ks from the upper $60ks.. and so those were the points that I had considered to be bettable in terms of my thinking that you were expecting too much of a dip in these here kinds of times.. which also put us back to either going below the 200-WMA or getting pretty damned close to it.. which I also stick by my prediction that we are not going to get within 20% of the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025 - and yeah, those are pretty bold claims coming from my camp, but I am willing to stand behind them in terms of my thinking that they are greater than 50% odds, so that if I enter into a 50/50 bet, my odds of winning are greater than my odds of losing... at least at this point in our bitcoin journey. and if the conditions change, I may well prefer to retract my bet.. .. I don't have to stick to such bet, but if you catch me right now, those bet proposals are still on the table... and I think that either one of them would still be fun, even if they end up not being a winner for me.
What I believe is more likely to happen isn't necessarily the odds I'd apply, as I'd prefer to stick to the odds that the chart is telling me. Even being 50/50 is a bit of a dubious position, as it's only the 20 DMA that's broken, the shorter-term time-frames remain bullish.
I probably was just getting worked up over the way that I was interpreting the way that you were talking about some of those lower price scenarios as if they had odds that were much greater than 50/50.. Earlier, from my perspective, you seemed to have had been talking about those lower price scenarios as if they had 70-80% odds. .. and yeah, maybe I misread you, but that was how I understood your words, even if you did not assign actual numbers, words also can carry meanings related to likelihood of happening.. .and you may well appreciate that some of us will get on the case of others who are describing fringe scenarios as if they were even close to base case scenarios.. Nothing wrong with being prepared for extremes, even though there are problems to discuss extreme scenarios as if they were base case scenarios..
Not sure if you were asking me, but at present I'd say 50/50 further upside. With $60K breaking I'd be 60/40 for further downside. With $69K breaking to the upside I'd say 60/40 further upside.
On a side note: I'm also slightly surprised that price didn't continue on to $80K after breaking ATH, as there was certainly room for a blow-off style top with maximum overbought conditions. The momentum wasn't on the side of the bulls after all it seems, as it wasn't selling pressure but more so lack of buying pressure (based on volume that was declining since the top rather than increasing/maintaining with sell volume).
It is hard to say what might be causing the failure to go up.... except surely the GBTC selling seems to be offsetting the buys from the other ETFs... but I hate to ONLY focus on single theory explanations, since there is always going to be some concern when the price goes up so fast, and you can just look at the chart and see that there had not been very many significant price corrections between October and currently.. so for those kinds of reasons there could be some advantages to slowing down the UPpity a bit.
But with that, and without a blow-off top with high sell volume, it doesn't necessarily put me in better position (in the context of betting on further downside), as price is instead consolidating right now. Neither the bulls nor the bears are showing they have the momentum for either further upside or downside, even if one side will eventually have a breakthrough with this in the near-term. But as referenced, below $60K, I would be 60/40 anticipating further downside over the next few months. Even if market structure isn't in my favour necessarily right now, I acknowledge that GBTC selling probably is at the moment.
That is part of the issue with consolidation; it can be difficult to figure out how long it will last.. a few days, a few weeks, a few months or longer.
I am still going to stick with the consideration that between $55k and $82k-ish is no man's land, so I have my doubts about really hanging out in these here parts for very long, and sure maybe if we got all the way through no man's land, then it could be fair game to come back into no man's land. but I even have my doubts about the likelihood of something like that (a regression back into prior no man's land for consolidation - it seems like an outlier theory - even though anything can happen, but from my perspective, it would not be a base case way of thinking about the matter).
So based on Coinbase high of $73,835.57, I make a 50% correction from current high $36,917.79, which I'd be willing to make a bet over given a break of $60K.
I might be willing to consider that bet.. but I find it problematic that you are not willing to enter into such bet unless we get below $60k first.. .. but I must admit it is close to bettable.. even though fuck Coinbase.. We use Bitstamp in these here parts.. why the fuck would any of us want to rely on Coinbase for figuring out our price points for any potential bet when those twats cannot even keep their fucking exchange operating during supposed high volume times. There is a reason that Buddy is coming at us with Bitstamp prices for the past 10 years or so.., even though he took a break for a few years... (went on strike)
Granted this would only be a further -38% to the downside, but would be -50% from the top, which as you said you don't believe is very unlikely (at least without reaching $80K or higher). But I can understand that if price fell below $60K, maybe you'd increase your odds of reaching around $40K and therefore the bet would no longer be in your favour. But I'm basing this in your initial statement that would remain true even with breaking $60K or $50K for that matter:
I might have to think about it. It is getting close to bettable, especially if you would be requiring a 50% correction from the current top, which is currently $73,794 on bitstamp and therefore $36,897.. so you would ONLY win if the price dropped at or below $36,897 on Bitstamp... which I am thinking that may well be bettable, even if you would require the BTC price to go below $60k before the bet would trigger otherwise I don't get shit.
which you should appreciate how that is a little bothersome...
Another issue is that there are limited ways that I would win the bet, but what about a timeline for the bet or other ways to invalidate the bet? The bet becomes invalid if the BTC price goes back above $69k? or you just seem to have too many ways out of not losing the bet.
so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k
So with this in mind, and a break of $60K (and price around that level as it were), I think me betting on $40K coming first and you on $80K would be a fairer bet no? That would be 33% in either direction from there.
That's true... that could be another way of framing a bet that might be bettable; however what do we need for a break of $60k? just a dip below $60k should be enough, no? Do you need a closing candle, too? hahahahaha.. We had gotten a low of $60,760 so far, which was about 2.5 days ago as I type this post... I am talking about Bitstamp.. Let's stick to Bitstamp.. fuck coinbase... those twats.
And would also mean I'm not relying on a precise number to fall to, given that I think -50% is more of a maximum that's likely, and could easily be a few percent off either way. I'd feel pretty daft if price got to $40K but miss $37K in reality. If anything I wonder if this bet would favour you more here, as price could reach $80K before reaching $40K for example... which is a risk I'd have to take here.
Well yeah. you would not be getting quite 50%, and it could be true that the BTC price could barely break below $40k and then not go any further... that is pretty low.. so I am having my doubts, and I think that the bet needs to be that the BTC price has to break $40k it cannot just touch on $40k in order for you to win...especially since you are already making several conditions, but it is still seeming bettable. even if I am barely feeling much greater than 50% odds in terms of the current framing... it is not like a slam dunk, but it still seems to be within my parameters of a potentially acceptable bet.. despite your lack of commitment to enter right now and you have some additional condition prior to feeling strong enough to enter such bet.
(With that last part I'd have to consider whether this bet would really be fair after all, and whether simply reaching $40K this year would fairer for me, even if price reached $80K for example)
If the BTC price reached $80k first, and then it later corrected down to sub $40k then you would feel that you should have had been the rightful winner of the bet. You are trying to make sure you win no matter what? hahahahaha
I did already suggest that I don't think that the BTC price is going to ever go below $40k again (at least not in 2024 and/or 2025).. which surely I did make a pretty bold claim, but if we bet on something like that, then it may well take some time for the bet to play out, so now you are wanting to change it to some higher number rather than $80k.. so I would not win.. until it got above some higher number and you are finally willing to give up on sub $40k ever being reachable in 2024 or 2025..
For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.
Good luck with that.
Seems he has no clue about how the market works and simply relies on the price movement rather than logics behind it, no doubt most persons come to the bitcoin market only during bull run.
Glad, you share insights on this.
Bare in mind that UnDerDoG81 has been the market since 2013, not just during the bull run, so I doubt they are clueless here.
I don't think that's what JJG was implying what you are saying either, only that the decision could be more emotional rather than logic based, which would also make sense if it's based on what he/she feels comfortable with holding, rather than what logically would be the "best" quantity to hold. Being 100% invested is otherwise very greedy, so you can look at this either way (even JJG isn't 100% invested!)
I have no problem with any guy wanting to shave off some BTC exposure. I was more bothered by what seems to be UnDerDoG81's motive to sell and then to buy back cheaper, so I personally believe that it is better to be willing to accept the finality of any amount that is sold.. but sure, no problem if the price drops and he can buy back, but he should not sell with that expectation.. .. although we know that the odds of being able to buy back cheaper does go up with the more that the BTC price goes up, but at the same time, from my way of thinking about BTC investing (and any sales that I make), we should never expect that we will be able to buy back cheaper after we had sold.
Regarding the 100%. I believe that you (dragonvslinux) are misunderstanding what UnDerDoG81 means. I believe that UnDerDoG81 is saying that BTC is his only investment.. so he only has bitcoin and dollars (or whatever fiat that he uses), he does not have any other kinds of investments besides bitcoin and fiat. He did not say what his allocations in fiat versus bitcoin is, so how much fiat savings that he has, so I imagine that part of his issue is that the value of his BTC (in terms of fiat) is causing whatever fiat savings that he have to be dwarft.. so that maybe he ends up being 90/10 or something very lopsided and he will feel better to not be so lopsided, especially since we know that fiat does not really hold its value, but there could still be stacking of fiat to offset the growth of the BTC, but maybe that is part of the issue in that the BTC is just growing too fast and UnDerDoG81 is just becoming a bit too fiat oriented since he does not have other investments... which I am not even against any of those kinds of considerations and/or calculations.
I am personally largely just against the idea of selling BTC with an expectation of being able to buy it back cheaper.. and UnDerDoG81 should be able to figure out various amounts of BTC that he is willing to sell without worrying about being able to buy back cheaper, even if he spreads out his 10% sales over a larger price range. .but the whole thing that he is wanting to do is to sell 10% and then to be able to buy it back cheaper...even if he spreads the orders (10 orders) out for 1% for every $10k price rise all the way up to $159k..and from my perspective, none of that is a bad plan.. just having the expectations of being able to buy back cheaper.
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