Willy Woo@woonomicThe new
BTC ETFs brings price targets of $91k at the bear market bottom and $650k at the bull market top once ETF investors have fully deployed according to asset manager recommendations***.
These are very conservative numbers.
BTC will beat gold cap when ETFs have completed their role.
*** Note these are not targets for THIS cycle, it takes a long time for capital deployments to complete.
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Back of the envelope calculations:
1) $100T managed by asset managers, they generally have a 2% allocation recommendation (see Fidelity). This number will rise over time, but today it's a $2T allocation into BTC.
2) BTC currently holds $561,159,959 of investment (we can measure this on-chain), new total will bring it to $2.56T of investment
3) We can use MVRV to calculate market cap vs money invested. This ratio is 5x in bull market tops and 0.7x in bear market bottoms.
4) This translates to capitalisations of $12.8T and $1.8T respectively or $650k and $91k per coin.
5) I've excluded other self custody inflows, so this is absolutely a lower bound estimation. Self custody inflows are way bigger right now.
6) Bitcoin will certainly exceed Gold capitalisation by the time asset manager capital has deployed. Gold went on a 12 year bull run when it's ETF was approved, now it's Bitcoin's turn.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1779829797738438754