Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[log2exp]

HUGE NEWS……



Gokhstein
BREAKING: Hong Kong greenlights spot Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF applications.
https://x.com/gokhshtein/status/1779755926020358197


@WatcherGuru
JUST IN: 🇭🇰 Hong Kong approves spot #Bitcoin  & Ethereum ETF application.
https://x.com/watcherguru/status/1779754815947465186


@WuBlockchain
Breaking: China Asset Management, Bosera Capital, HashKey Capital Limited, etc. announced that their applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, allowing investors to directly use Bitcoin and Ethereum to subscribe for corresponding ETF shares.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/L41jvBB5hthR4mXRoL1G2Q
https://x.com/wublockchain/status/1779752184412008585

@WuBlockchain
Harvest Global Investments also announced that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved in principle the product of Bitcoin and Ethereum digital asset spot ETFs.
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RXXt9vxETtk8NZrdffa1iQ
https://x.com/wublockchain/status/1779754057525342426

I'm split in my feelings regarding this. Part of me is thrilled another huge market is now going to join the competition in getting bitcoins.
The other part of me is not thrilled. Almost angry - because its China/HK.

Not sure if they can BAN these ETFs? Anyone know when will they begin trading?

When you see the shitcoin like ETH got approved, you know it's another sham by the CCP. They must approve the ETFs first in order to ban them later.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Willy Woo
@woonomic
The new BTC ETFs brings price targets of $91k at the bear market bottom and $650k at the bull market top once ETF investors have fully deployed according to asset manager recommendations***.

These are very conservative numbers. BTC will beat gold cap when ETFs have completed their role.

*** Note these are not targets for THIS cycle, it takes a long time for capital deployments to complete.

___

Back of the envelope calculations:

1) $100T managed by asset managers, they generally have a 2% allocation recommendation (see Fidelity). This number will rise over time, but today it's a $2T allocation into BTC.

2) BTC currently holds $561,159,959 of investment (we can measure this on-chain), new total will bring it to $2.56T of investment

3) We can use MVRV to calculate market cap vs money invested. This ratio is 5x in bull market tops and 0.7x in bear market bottoms.

4) This translates to capitalisations of $12.8T and $1.8T respectively or $650k and $91k per coin.

5) I've excluded other self custody inflows, so this is absolutely a lower bound estimation. Self custody inflows are way bigger right now.

6) Bitcoin will certainly exceed Gold capitalisation by the time asset manager capital has deployed. Gold went on a 12 year bull run when it's ETF was approved, now it's Bitcoin's turn.
https://x.com/woonomic/status/1779829797738438754

[BitcoinBunny]

O/T

Poor people of Sydney.
Time to execute such barbaric knife yielding murderers if you ask me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

O/T

Poor people of Sydney.
Time to execute such barbaric knife yielding murderers if you ask me.

 Thankfully he was summarily executed before he could murder anyone else.

[philipma1957]

O/T

Poor people of Sydney.
Time to execute such barbaric knife yielding murderers if you ask me.

I often wonder why don’t we spend money on a blinding chip. And a paralyzing chip.

A person in NYC walked up to a mother and her nine year old daughter. Tossed a hard punch at the nine year old and knocked her down.

A repeat offender bla bla bla. If there was a blindness chip and it was placed on him after the first attack he would not have done the second one.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/man-arrested-after-punching-9-year-old-girl-in-grand-central-terminal-police-say/ar-BB1lA3MC

so slap a chip on him and even if he is on a no bail release he is not going to do it again.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Why is there such a discrepancy between this and the counter from coinbase?

It appears the answer is, because Coinbase.  Which is slightly troubling, because isn't coinbase handling all of the behind the scenes, off the chain transactions for the US ETFs?  I really want to hate that font, but just can't.

In other news, how many forced HODLers were created this weekend?   With ETF BTC being mostly frozen in time over the weekend.  How many weekend BTC traders do you all think are employed by the ETFs.  Or is it all, just do what the customer asks, during normal business hours?

  It's because nobody actually knows the instantaneous hash rate of the Bitcoin network and it fluctuates wildly.  Here's a three month chart of hash rate from ycharts.com:



 Any calculation of time-to-block must include the hash rate but it can't be known with any certainty due to the probabilistic nature of mining.  The Bitcoin protocol drives block time toward 10 minutes using the difficulty but this difficulty is only adjusted once every 2016 confirmed blocks.   We don't even know the number of blocks remaining because it's possible (not so probably anymore) that there could be orphaned blocks.   The only fixed variable we have for the calculation is the number 840,000 which is the block at which halving takes place.  The second most certain variable we have is the current block which we can get by querying our bitcoin node with "getblockcount"; it's 839337

 So there are almost certainly 663 blocks left then things just fall apart from there.   If you decide to use 10 minutes per block, you get 4 days 14 hours and 30 minutes until the halvening... dammit, they just found another block while I was typing that.  Okay, make it 4 days 14 hours and 20 minutes.  BUT if you use 10 minutes in your calculations and don't revisit your countdown clock for ~4 years - you're going to be way off.

 You can get fancier by using an average time-to-block in your calculation but then you have to pick a time frame for your average and after all that, if you don't regularly revisit your equation, then you're going to pull a Coinbase.  My guess is that they paid someone to code a fancy halvening calculator for them and decided not to pay for ongoing support of the code.  While it is still possible that the Coinbase countdown clock is the correct one, based on what we know presently, it's probably not.

[BitcoinBunny]

Surely this is not a good sign for EVs?

 

Tesla lays off more than 10% of its workforce
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68818113

Surprised to read Tesla aren't even going to make a smaller Model 2 now which has been rumoured. Edit: Elon Musk denies this, the article was changed I just saw.

I don't really want an EV currently, but if I had to have one it would have to be
a Tesla simply due to the fact the range in other brands' cars suck and they don't have a good charge network.

It really does seem to be the start to an apparent move away of an EV rich future.
Probably hydrogen or synthetic fuels are more likely now for the masses.

Either that or we will all drive Chinese made cars. 

[philipma1957]

Strong indications of a Trump victory in the fall.

Trump will bury evs and release the fraken (sorry for the pun)

My advice to my fellow americans is lots of canned food on hand.

water on hand.

air filters on hand

water filters on hand.

at least one gun or pistol per person.

ammo

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Strong indications of a Trump victory in the fall.

Trump will bury evs and release the fraken (sorry for the pun)

My advice to my fellow americans is lots of canned food on hand.

water on hand.

air filters on hand

water filters on hand.

at least one gun or pistol per person.

ammo

Don't forget toilet paper.

[Richy_T]

It really does seem to be the start to an apparent move away of an EV rich future.
Probably hydrogen or synthetic fuels are more likely now for the masses.

If you're going to make an ev-type vehicle for current use scenarios with current tech, hybrids were the way to go other than for a small, specific niche.

And that's even for the US market and markets where government taxes on top of fuel are low. In places like Europe, the costs for fuel are *largely* tax and the government is always going to want its pound of flesh sooner or later. So, for the consumer, any actual benefit is even less clear.

Not to mention, right now, the economy is trash and people are seeing the reality of end-of-life large lithium battery packs.

[Lucius]

Strong indications of a Trump victory in the fall.

Trump will bury evs and release the fraken (sorry for the pun)

My advice to my fellow americans is lots of canned food on hand.

water on hand.

air filters on hand

water filters on hand.

at least one gun or pistol per person.

ammo

Honestly, you don't have an easy choice (if you have one at all), given that you have to choose between a man who is obviously seriously ill (demented) and one who has already tried to cause a coup in which the blood of innocent people was spilled. It seems that the average American no longer wants someone normal in the White House - so even though it is your internal political matter, the problem is that the re-election of Trump will have consequences for the whole world - of course negative.

By the way, the critics say that the film is "brutally good".


Civil War

[BitcoinBunny]

Strong indications of a Trump victory in the fall.

Trump will bury evs and release the fraken (sorry for the pun)

My advice to my fellow americans is lots of canned food on hand.

water on hand.

air filters on hand

water filters on hand.

at least one gun or pistol per person.

ammo

Honestly, you don't have an easy choice (if you have one at all), given that you have to choose between a man who is obviously seriously ill (demented) and one who has already tried to cause a coup in which the blood of innocent people was spilled. It seems that the average American no longer wants someone normal in the White House - so even though it is your internal political matter, the problem is that the re-election of Trump will have consequences for the whole world - of course negative.

By the way, the critics say that the film is "brutally good".


Civil War

Thought it was an atrocious movie, one of the worst. Zero character development.
Tries to paint reporters (using 35mm film stock in this day -sure) as innocent bystanders.

Whilst in reality they are exactly the ones to blame for the utter political chaos everywhere.  

I have no problem with a movie not picking a side.
But there is no realistic motivation, justification just merely nihilism in explanation and thought.

Kirsten Dunst sour faced for 2 hours piece of rubbish and that in the week she complained Tobey Maguire earned more for Spiderman.
She deserves zero for her efforts here, zero!

Utter crap.

[El duderino_]

So we have had a little nothingburgerpump today

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

So we have had a little nothingburgerpump today

Also known as: a pump for ants.

...and then there's that:

One more pump for ants.
Early ejaculation.
Japanese girls know.

#gokkunhaiku

[UnDerDoG81]

That HK ETF approval didn’t move the needle