Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.

If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.

Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck

BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

if DOGE succeeds in drastically reducing gov spending, bitcoin might be affected negatively (short term), it's just math.
However, i doubt that it would be possible-bureaucracy always brings spending back.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.

If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.

Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck

BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

What about? ...

Nope, the truth is that BTC trading price no more reflects its true value.
Nvidia (and what not) may be past similar situations, but instead overvalued (or maybe better: overpriced).
That bananas-apples comparison is meaningless.
As BTC increasingly decouples from the economic situation, it is still undervalued AND underpriced, though the undervalued part improved significantly, while price wasn't following. I mean, c'mon. If i can see this, you can see it too. This or i'm completely stupid.

Sure, we all can "think positive" about what's happening around Bitcoin.
I mean, what would Satoshi say to all this, watching the banks and financial elites grabbing masses of BTC without moving the price (shifting the value) while the spot market's life and liquidity is getting milked out by the same institutions? Do you think he would be positive?
I am not an evangelist, but there definitely is this ethical edge, isn't it?

EDIT: I didn't even touch that usability topic (yet)!
Oh, and where was adoption, outside of El Salvador? We're in the middle of a bullrun, come the fuck on!
Sure, WAGMI, but is that really everything to it? I don't think Bitcoin can live off greed only.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

[Biodom]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

Right now, it "feels" like a bear market..with it's drip drip drip downwards.
Quite shocking, in fact, since that we are declining (or flat) against all expectations.
Isn't it a definition of a bear market when the ostensibly good news cause further declines instead of price increases?

That said, I am predicting nothing further, maybe it is "something" localized in time like a 'bear market" of 2020 that was severe, but lasted 2 mo or less.
Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

Agreed but what about the early 2024 bull ?? Does that count early as well ??

[OgNasty]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

The FTX distributions should make a difference here right? Even if only 10% of that money makes its way into Bitcoin, that’s still over a billion dollars. I think the % could be higher and I also think those people getting their money back could lead them to more future investment or getting friends and family back in the game. That should hold us over until Governments kick accumulation into overdrive. Then if Strategy finds its way into the S&P 500, things could get wild.

[serveria.com]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:



My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

Right now, it "feels" like a bear market..with it's drip drip drip downwards.
Quite shocking, in fact, since that we are declining (or flat) against all expectations.
Isn't it a definition of a bear market when the ostensibly good news cause further declines instead of price increases?

That said, I am predicting nothing further, maybe it is "something" localized in time like a 'bear market" of 2020 that was severe, but lasted 2 mo or less.
Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

Weird, I don't see any signs of acbear market to be honest. Just take another looks at the heatmap. Should we start to worry? Perhaps if we'll have two red months in a row or more than 3 red months this year we should start to worry. Otherwise, everything looks normal so far.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I have hard time finding a post from Jan-Feb 2023 when Bitcoin crossed 20k and someone here said that we won't see Bitcoin below 20k again and that prediction is true, at least till now.

I don't think we will see Bitcoin below 90k again. Book mark this, so you can easily find it in 2026   

I doubt that your proclamation has much significance.  Sure you could end up being correct, but so what?

I would place slightly less than 50% odds that we don't go below $90k ever again (spot price on Bitstamp, right?).  I am not even sure if I would be willing to bet my own  50/50 or less than 50/50 feelings.. which that I think that there are greater than 50% odds  that we go below $90k again at some point...

To me, it seems to become bettable when you are giving 100% assurances or something close to high assurances that we are never going to below $90k again.. then that seems like a bit too much certainty, then you should be willing to give high odds on a bet like that, too.  especially since you are so confident, right?  I doubt that you would even give 90% odds on your statement.  which means that I would ONLY have to bet 1/10 the amount  that you would have to bet.. something like that...because you are the one expressing so much confidence on your assertion.

In gambling, it's the house that' the winner not the gambler. Unless you are not the house, you must be ready for loss.

Here, we have no house.  Therefore if we were to enter into a bet, we can agree to whatever we believe is reasonable, and yeah, we might not agree that the level of disagreement rises enough to be bettable.

Having said that yes I am confident that we won't see Bitcoin going below 90k and I am saying that with full confidence. On on the other hand if Bitcoin goes below 90k then I will be one of happiest man, since that will give me some space to buy more.  

It's a kind of win-win scenario for me.

If you  are certain, then you should be willing to give 10:1 odds are maybe even greater odds than that, especially if you are certain.  I hate to bet on down, but if the odds are great enough, then I would not be able to resist.  We would not have to have a large bet... it could be something like 0.0001 on the low end (mine) and 0.001 on the high end, yours or some other amount that we might mutually agree..  One of the problems could be figuring out when the bet ends.. so of course, I would win if the BTC price touches any price below $90k .. such as $89,999 or lower (Bitstamp is ONLY measuring in whole dollars), and you would win by the end of 2026 (or something like that) if the BTC spot price does not touch below $90k.  I am pretty sure the bet should resolve before the end of 2026, or maybe I could concede that you won if we reach $333,333 or greater prior to touching below $90k?

[edited out]

philpima1957 has it's own versatility style which is difficult to follow or copy  

You are doing a pretty good job following in aspects of his from time to time dogmatisms.

You got me wrong JJG, I am an easy going guy with simple beliefs  

Dogma is dogma, even if you are the nicest guy since sliced bread.   

Philip might have also been a pretty nice guy in the whole scheme of things, but that does not stop him from being quite dogmatic on a fairly regular basis.  Sure your dogmatism might ONLY be in regards to  this particular prediction, yet if we were to agree upon a bet, then there might be some ability to verify if you are ready, willing and/or able to stand behind your words in ways that go beyond mere words.

By the way, I lost a bet recently from a forum member, and he had given me favorable odds similar to the ones described here.. so I ended up paying.. but BTC's trade-weighted price ended up moving below the 2021 high trade-weighted price, so then I ended up having pay the bet.  I knew that the odds were greater than 50% that I would lose the bet, but the agreed to terms were hard to refuse.

May be in Jan 2027, when price of Bitcoin will be over 200k or more. We still saying, greater opportunities were just a few weeks and months behind us.

Another interesting idea.  Will the BTC price be over or under $200k in January 2027.  The odds are probably less than 50/50 that the BTC price will be above $200k in January 2027, but surely not so strong to be bettable. 

On the other hand, the odds are probably quite a bit higher 50% that the bitcoin price will go above $200k at some point between now and January 2027.

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine,

Wasn't Trump going to resolve Ukraine, even prior to getting into office?  hahahahaha

people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k

That would be dumb for almost anyone...even someone who had been in bitcoin for a while.  I am not going to suggest that people don't do dumb things, including giving their coins to Michael and Larry.

- and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

How you going to do that when we are in the middle of a bull market?

you are expecting trends to reverse here?  In bat country?

Oh my!!!!!

Are you new here?

The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

hahahahaha

Are you talking your book?  Sure sub $90k could happen. .. I am not saying that it won't but to be relying on it to happen, seems a bit much.  But, yeah, sure, anything can happen.

By the way, Mempools are clearing too.. .. bitcoin is like ded.. ..

or close to ded.

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I am not frustrated nor does the current situation surprise me in any way - because if you look at the time before January 20, when the big gray crypto messiah was enthroned in his new old position, everything looked so great and promising, but after that we got only a lot of negative things in the global context with US claims on the territory of Panama, Denmark (EU) and at the end of the Gaza Strip where TFamily would build a luxury resort at the expense of 2 million people who need to be displaced.

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine, people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k - and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

To me, it seems like the market has burned out and got stuck because of the bullish news failing to reflect in the spot prices. We know the reason, and honestly, it doesn't make much sense to trade at the time. News can't be used to anticipate price action, ETFs, Saylor, soon also Banks are buying like crazy at OTC desks, exchanges are milking long and short liquidity on a regular basis. The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

Spot on, but what are the causes?
To me, it seems that "crypto' (apart from bitcoin) is dying or at least is in a catatonic state.
This comes back to what it's function, overall?

As I said before on multiple occasions: the second layer should have been developed on bitcoin.
Instead, not much was developed on bitcoin and everything else quickly loses relevance, maybe with one or two exceptions (or, maybe even just one and it is not the VB coin).
Inflation hedge with bitcoin and stablecoins for fast payment tx-those are ONLY two applications with large relevance right now.
DeFI could be a third app, but it is hopelessly fragmented and was banged repeatedly by the gov.
The fact that banks would soon be able to issue tokens horrifies me quite a bit.
IMHO, too much acceptance and too much integration into the "old" system gives the field as a whole a "kiss of death".

To what extent bitcoin could stay above the fray would be determined in the next 6-12 mo, imho.

Wow.. .. .just wow... I see that the bear-talking party poopers are out in full force... I mean, sure sub $90k could happen, but still... hardly the end of the world..  Are we no longer in a bull market or something? 

Maybe I accidentally clicked the wrong link and got taken to a parallel universe (referring to the WO thread)....     

For some reason.. a little off point, but reminded me of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqgVf_wOKLs

Gotta try to get some kinds of laughs regarding various from time to time world ironies.

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.
If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.

Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck
BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

Exactamente!!!!!

That's the spirit Volgastallion.

We can look at so many shitcoins getting purged of their froth, and yeah, we cannot always know how it is going to play out, but I see some froth purging going on for anyone who is ready, willing and able to keep their eyes on the prize.. and stop getting bitcoin mixed up with the various other shitcoins and shit projects and various ongoing catastrophes.. .. Bitcoin seems a pretty good place to be whether we have already been here for a while or whether we are still in the process of building our BTC stack.

[cAPSLOCK]

Well DeFi and other crypto projects, you're right Bitcoin needs to solidify its role as a key player. Let’s hope for innovative developments that serve to its strengths while keeping those old systems at cove .

i SUPPOSE A COVE IS SORT OF LIKE A "BAY"?  aS IN "AT BAY"?  gOOGLE tRANSLATE FAILS AGAIN...
(and look I am sure you are better at English than I am at most other languages...)



That said...

This is a boss fight.  Y'all see it right?

Bitcoin only goes up over time... the time FRAME?  That's a bit different.

We are not going way way down from here (sorry to jinx us)...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

hahahahaha

Are you talking your book?  Sure sub $90k could happen. .. I am not saying that it won't but to be relying on it to happen, seems a bit much.  But, yeah, sure, anything can happen.

By the way, Mempools are clearing too.. .. bitcoin is like ded.. ..

or close to ded.

Not at all.
I'm talking we're in a bull market missing bullish price action, because the bulls are buying over the counter.
Additionally, i looked at other aspects, like ethics and retail sentiment. Retail is mainly either waiting or selling now. Selling into the bags of the insitutions.
Oh, yeah, forgot about those exchanges. This adds to the problems, but i'm nowhere as near to bearish as you might assume.
Maybe more of a stereotype of yours? Or plain misunderstanding. Rumors say this was already happening sometimes in the past between the two of us  

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I am not frustrated nor does the current situation surprise me in any way - because if you look at the time before January 20, when the big gray crypto messiah was enthroned in his new old position, everything looked so great and promising, but after that we got only a lot of negative things in the global context with US claims on the territory of Panama, Denmark (EU) and at the end of the Gaza Strip where TFamily would build a luxury resort at the expense of 2 million people who need to be displaced.

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine, people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k - and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

To me, it seems like the market has burned out and got stuck because of the bullish news failing to reflect in the spot prices. We know the reason, and honestly, it doesn't make much sense to trade at the time. News can't be used to anticipate price action, ETFs, Saylor, soon also Banks are buying like crazy at OTC desks, exchanges are milking long and short liquidity on a regular basis. The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

Spot on, but what are the causes?
To me, it seems that "crypto' (apart from bitcoin) is dying or at least is in a catatonic state.
This comes back to what it's function, overall?

As I said before on multiple occasions: the second layer should have been developed on bitcoin.
Instead, not much was developed on bitcoin and everything else quickly loses relevance, maybe with one or two exceptions (or, maybe even just one and it is not the VB coin).
Inflation hedge with bitcoin and stablecoins for fast payment tx-those are ONLY two applications with large relevance right now.
DeFI could be a third app, but it is hopelessly fragmented and was banged repeatedly by the gov.
The fact that banks would soon be able to issue tokens horrifies me quite a bit.
IMHO, too much acceptance and too much integration into the "old" system gives the field as a whole a "kiss of death".

To what extent bitcoin could stay above the fray would be determined in the next 6-12 mo, imho.

Wow.. .. .just wow... I see that the bear-talking party poopers are out in full force... I mean, sure sub $90k could happen, but still... hardly the end of the world..  Are we no longer in a bull market or something? 

Maybe I accidentally clicked the wrong link and got taken to a parallel universe (referring to the WO thread)....     

For some reason.. a little off point, but reminded me of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqgVf_wOKLs

Gotta try to get some kinds of laughs regarding various from time to time world ironies.

I can't speak for Biodom or Lucius, but myself: I am making my mind up to be able adjust to the situation, if needed. Bearish thoughts are shared, so we can just discuss them respectfully. I don't feel like anybody here is in mood for a(nother) Bitcoin-Funeral.
Ima just trying to observe what is going on and like to know some opinions of our little WO-bubble (no offense, a little bit of irony, though).

[Tauja]

Go to sleep, dream a dream that you want, tomorrow you become a millionaire.

Nothing is instant, patience is needed.

Just hold.

How is your dream?

September 19, 2024 bitcoin price $62k

Sweet dreams, dreams are definitely sex dreams

February 07, 2025 bitcoin price $97k

I passed the $100k moment 

I think we need a longer dream. Let's dream

[JayJuanGee]

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.

If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.
Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck

BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

What about? ...
Nope, the truth is that BTC trading price no more reflects its true value.
Nvidia (and what not) may be past similar situations, but instead overvalued (or maybe better: overpriced).
That bananas-apples comparison is meaningless.
As BTC increasingly decouples from the economic situation, it is still undervalued AND underpriced, though the undervalued part improved significantly, while price wasn't following. I mean, c'mon. If i can see this, you can see it too. This or i'm completely stupid.

You are "completely stupid" (your words  hahahahaha) because you are fucking around trying to trade bitcoin even though you can see that bitcoin is undervalued.

WO guys are not new to bitcoin, so of course, we know that ongoingly if there is any kind of stop or slowing down in price momentum in one direction or the other, then various forces are going to be battling to push BTC's price to bring it down as low as possible and to keep it down as long as possible to shake out as many weak hands as can be shook.  What's new?  We've been here several times, and even ongoingly, but if we have been paying attention then we are not going to be losing our confidence and try to fuck around trying to trade waves (corrections) that may or may not end up happening.

Sure, we all can "think positive" about what's happening around Bitcoin.
I mean, what would Satoshi say to all this, watching the banks and financial elites grabbing masses of BTC without moving the price (shifting the value) while the spot market's life and liquidity is getting milked out by the same institutions? Do you think he would be positive?
I am not an evangelist, but there definitely is this ethical edge, isn't it?

Bitcoin was build for these kinds of matters, and it seems to be working out pretty well.  Yeah, we have BIG players trying  to play both sides and likely engaging in various kinds of fractional reserves, but they are going to get themselves into trouble if they get on the wrong side of some of their manipulation attempts.

EDIT: I didn't even touch that usability topic (yet)!
Oh, and where was adoption, outside of El Salvador? We're in the middle of a bullrun, come the fuck on!
Sure, WAGMI, but is that really everything to it? I don't think Bitcoin can live off greed only.

Ever since October 2023, we have not had very many extensive corrections, and surely we already know that bitcoin has historically had decently large price corrections, even during bull runs.  Yeah, you can say that our correction from $74k to $49k (32%-ish) between March and August was meaningful and large, but to me comes off as a BIG so fucking what?

Now you want to suggest (cry that the sky is falling) mere on a wee widdow correction from $109k to $95k?  Only 13%-ish, so far.  That is nothing.. We should be able to do these kinds of corrections  in our sleep.



Or maybe you think that the sky is falling because the BTC price is failing to go up as much and /or as fast as you would like it (or you believe it should) go up.  That seems misplaced too... There were even several of us who had suggested a possibility of buy the rumor, sell the news, whether we want to refer to a Trump pump or not... but still BTC prices seem to be hanging in there pretty well.

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

Indeed, if we take a look at the heatmap, February should be great for Bitcoin:

My prediction: next leg up to 120-130k in February-March, 150k in Summer and a moonshot (200-250k) in November.

Right now, it "feels" like a bear market..with it's drip drip drip downwards.
Quite shocking, in fact, since that we are declining (or flat) against all expectations.
Isn't it a definition of a bear market when the ostensibly good news cause further declines instead of price increases?

Oh gawd..  

You want to say that we have not been having enough UPpity, since we have not had an ATH in the past 2.5 weeks, and we have been on a steady decline for 2.5 weeks from our ATH...? Therefore we are in a bear market?

What kind of a looney world is this?  Spreading depression since we have not had another ATH for 2.5 weeks, therefore we are in a bear market?

That said, I am predicting nothing further, maybe it is "something" localized in time like a 'bear market" of 2020 that was severe, but lasted 2 mo or less.

Bear markets do not work like that, especially in bitcoin.  Yeah, bull markets may take 3 years and have several corrections along the way... which is the 3 greens and a red framework.

I will admit that bear markets do sometimes end up coming, yet we might not be able to confirm for several months (maybe even up to 6 months) that we had actually entered into such bear market 6 months earlier.

Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

Now you want to throw around dumbass terms to distinguish cyclical bear as compared to local bear?  Why can't you just characterize where we are at as a correction and you are not sure how big of a correction that it might be?.. just seems lame when people are throwing around bear and bull and bear as if we can have a bear market within a bull market, which is just emotion-ladened doomer and gloomer kinds of thinking that seems to ONLY either be inspiring panic, or trading or some other dumb ass techniques  that may well not end up working out very well for those who engage in those kinds of ways to lose their focus on accumulating bitcoin (or HODLing).

Obviously, it is too early to have a cyclical bear market as we are NOT at the end of 2025 yet.

Agreed but what about the early 2024 bull ?? Does that count early as well ??

The bull market can end at any time. There is no rule that it has to continue for 4 years merely because it did in the past.

So yeah, there will likely be a lot of dumb fucks 1) selling too many BTC too soon and/or 2) failing/refusing to continue to stack sats (and to prepare for up).

You can be one trying to play the waves or to time the market....yet since you ONLY been on the forum for around a year and a half, it seems that you should be stacking sats, unless for some reason you were able to front load your investment into bitcoin... but anyhow, guys can do whatever they want, and historically we have seen a lot of geniuses selling large portions of their stash, and this time around Michael and Larry will be thanking you for your donations to the cause.

[edited out]

Weird, I don't see any signs of acbear market to be honest. Just take another looks at the heatmap. Should we start to worry? Perhaps if we'll have two red months in a row or more than 3 red months this year we should start to worry. Otherwise, everything looks normal so far.

You don't see a bear because you are rational and not just throwing out bullshit premature talking points based on 2.5 weeks of data that does not even support a bear theory anyhow... just supports a "let's get scared" for nothing theory.

Spot on, but what are the causes?
To me, it seems that "crypto' (apart from bitcoin) is dying or at least is in a catatonic state.
This comes back to what it's function, overall?

As I said before on multiple occasions: the second layer should have been developed on bitcoin.
Instead, not much was developed on bitcoin and everything else quickly loses relevance, maybe with one or two exceptions (or, maybe even just one and it is not the VB coin).
Inflation hedge with bitcoin and stablecoins for fast payment tx-those are ONLY two applications with large relevance right now.
DeFI could be a third app, but it is hopelessly fragmented and was banged repeatedly by the gov.
The fact that banks would soon be able to issue tokens horrifies me quite a bit.
IMHO, too much acceptance and too much integration into the "old" system gives the field as a whole a "kiss of death".

To what extent bitcoin could stay above the fray would be determined in the next 6-12 mo, imho.

.
Well DeFi and other crypto projects, you're right Bitcoin needs to solidify its role as a key player. Let’s hope for innovative developments that serve to its strengths while keeping those old systems at cove .

Funny that?

For some strange reason (maybe I am "completely stupid?" stole that one from OOM).. , bitcoin does not seem broken to me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

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Rumors say this was already happening sometimes in the past between the two of us  

I hope that I am not being too much of a meanie, since I am mostly attempting to go by the contents of your post, and nothing about you personally.

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I can't speak for Biodom or Lucius, but myself: I am making my mind up to be able adjust to the situation, if needed. Bearish thoughts are shared, so we can just discuss them respectfully. I don't feel like anybody here is in mood for a(nother) Bitcoin-Funeral.
Ima just trying to observe what is going on and like to know some opinions of our little WO-bubble (no offense, a little bit of irony, though).

You can present bearish views. Nothing wrong with that. Some guys might not agree with you, but you make some decent points from time to time, and even Biodom and/or Lucius.. the other "speaking the truth" bear wannabes might have had possibly (perhaps?) made one or two good points once in a while, too (maybe once or twice each?)..  

Since you use the word "respectful," you seem to be suggesting that I might be going a wee bit overboard in my emphases of whatever points or counter-points I have been making in response to your posts?

I don't see any reason to be nice to bear talking-points or to spend a lot of time trying to figure out a nice way to say something that I might disagree with.  Sure sometimes I might end up changing my mind, but I cannot see that I am overly going into personal attacks beyond just making some emphases from time to time.  If I say, "your ideas are dumb or ridiculous or overly pessimistic or you are talking your book" that is not a personal attack even though I might be pointing out some things that might not end up being true, but it would not imply that I am arguing in bad faith merely because I am using some strong language to express my from time to time disagreements.

[promise444c5]

Michael and Larry will be thanking you for your donations to the cause

And what about them , i always think they know what we (or should i sy "some of us") don't maybe