Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

[...]

You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?

[...]

A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:

HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.

Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.

Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.

I've been in the same category as you but I missed two cycle tops due to my permabullishness and optimism and actual Bitcoin price never reached my price target.   So I'm kinda HOLDer/LFC wannabe guy. Therefore this year I will be selling a fraction of my stash and my sales won't be bitcoin price based they're going to be time based. I will start selling in chunks starting something like late summer. Otherwise, I feel like I'm going to miss the top once again.  

P.S.BTW I'm more than sure that LFC never sold his entire stash. I guess we could be talking about 20-30% of his coins.

[OutOfMemory]

[...]

You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?

[...]

A bit irrelevant comment, but I see three approaches to this time scale:

HoDLers: maintaining their stash, ladder up/down, 200-WMA going up forever. <-- Long-term WIN. <-- I am here.

Risk-takers: selling large chunk @ cycle top (Q4 2025) & re-buying @ cycle bottom (Q4 2026). <-- Risky BIG-WIN. <-- LFC is here.

Mindrusters: selling all @ local bottom ("Zed's dead baby, Zed's dead."). <-- Certain LOSS. <-- Hopefully, no WOer is here.

I've been in the same category as you but I missed two cycle tops due to my permabullishness and optimism and actual Bitcoin price never reached my price target.   So I'm kinda HOLDer/LFC wannabe guy. Therefore this year I will be selling a fraction of my stash and my sales won't be bitcoin price based they're going to be time based. I will start selling in chunks starting something like late summer. Otherwise, I feel like I'm going to miss the top once again.  

P.S.BTW I'm more than sure that LFC never sold his entire stash. I guess we could be talking about 20-30% of his coins.

There was so much good advice in this thread, since two cycle tops ago.
Verdict: Aiming at cycle tops (almost) never works out, but you can't do overly wrong on the way to the top.
Classic StochRSI, RSI, trading volumes, funding rates etc. shoudl give you a rough guide to identify incoming local tops.
Just a healthy mix of long- and shortterm indices, just as clear (or: less foggy) as when identifying cycle bottoms.

[ChocolateBitcoinK]

🇺🇸 RFK Jr.: “If the world were on a Bitcoin standard and our money held its value, we would all have the ability to live more abundant lives. Bitcoiners have it right. Fix the money, fix the world.”
from here

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

🇺🇸 RFK Jr.: “If the world were on a Bitcoin standard and our money held its value, we would all have the ability to live more abundant lives. Bitcoiners have it right. Fix the money, fix the world.”
from here

Why do i always tend to have the feeling, that politicians only say things like these on purpose?
While the "Bitcoiners have it right" part is certainly true, what makes a fiat-biatch choose such wording?

Would you expect this from a JFKJ-type-of-guy?
Could be a miracle, who knows... 

[Cossyblack]

🇺🇸 RFK Jr.: “If the world were on a Bitcoin standard and our money held its value, we would all have the ability to live more abundant lives. Bitcoiners have it right. Fix the money, fix the world.”
from here

I don't believe a word from the mouth of this politicians,I think they're kind of using Bitcoin to build their career and gather followers. I know a true Bitcoiner when I see one.

[xzy887]

The basic structure of the vehicle (market) is Bitcoin.
Tell me the direction of the car.

[Ambatman]

Would you expect this from a JFKJ-type-of-guy?
Could be a miracle, who knows... 

I doubt
I also doubt he knows why Bitcoin can fix the world or why Bitcoin is well, Bitcoin.

The basic structure of the vehicle (market) is Bitcoin.
Tell me the direction of the car.

Up

[Cossyblack]

The basic structure of the vehicle (market) is Bitcoin.
Tell me the direction of the car.

Looks like it's facing Up more than it's facing back

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Please dear God Satoshi, let it be……



@CryptoJelleNL
NBitcoin has spent the better part of 8 years inside this rising channel.

Whenever price crosses the midlevel, a test of the channel highs follows.

Will this time be different?

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1887793423622766833

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Cossyblack]

Please dead God Satoshi, let it be……



@CryptoJelleNL
NBitcoin has spent the better part of 8 years inside this rising channel.

Whenever price crosses the midlevel, a test of the channel highs follows.

Will this time be different?

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1887793423622766833

Bitcoin dip might be another opportunity to stack more depending on the mental view of the person.
Definitely the price will surely skyrocket.

120,000 before April

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xzy887]

If you can raise your child ideally, then your old age will be spent comfortably. And if you can hold Bitcoin properly now, you've left a comfortable future for your child.

Then you should hold some amount of Bitcoin and raise your child as an ideal. Then your child's future will be easier for your invested Bitcoin and your old age will be easier for your ideal child.

[Lucius]

~snip~

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine,

Wasn't Trump going to resolve Ukraine, even prior to getting into office?  hahahahaha

Well, he said he'd stop the war within 24 hours, but it seems he's busy planning world conquests. Ukraine has become a $15 trillion business in the past few days - because that's exactly how much (and maybe even more) all those rare minerals that the Russians are trying to get their hands on are worth - not because they need them (they have plenty of them in Siberia), but to deny them to the West.

people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k

That would be dumb for almost anyone...even someone who had been in bitcoin for a while.  I am not going to suggest that people don't do dumb things, including giving their coins to Michael and Larry.

If you only have 10 BTC and follow the current pattern - sell at $100k, buy as close to $90k as possible and you will profit around $100k every time the cycle repeats - imagine those who do this with thousands or tens of thousands of BTC, easy money, right?

- and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

How you going to do that when we are in the middle of a bull market?

you are expecting trends to reverse here?  In bat country?

Oh my!!!!!

Are you new here?

~snip~

Do you think Bitcoin is more powerful than central banks that print money whenever they want and whenever they need it? It is very easy to create FUD, especially if you own most of the mainstream media and if most people behave like sheep following their shepherd - who in this case is one of the most powerful people in the world. It means nothing to them that some of us think we are in a bull market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Ivystar5]

people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k

When I hear take profit I always think to myself what exactly are taking profit into ? Banks, fiat, stocks, ?

I think it's the other way round... cash out fiat and what have you? into bitcoin

Please dear God Satoshi, let it be……



@CryptoJelleNL
NBitcoin has spent the better part of 8 years inside this rising channel.

Whenever price crosses the midlevel, a test of the channel highs follows.

Will this time be different?

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1887793423622766833

Different patterns? Probably going to be the same... if only the market keeps going as expected.

If you can raise your child ideally, then your old age will be spent comfortably. And if you can hold Bitcoin properly now, you've left a comfortable future for your child.

Depends on how much bitcoin you have, can't a low coiner and expect a comfortable future neither you nor your children will be comfortable  

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Higher, much higher.

BTC



@CryptoJelleNL
The 2-year MA Multiplier has historically been a great indicator to see where in the cycle we are.

Even using the x3 multiplier (instead of the traditional 5x) - it strongly looks like #Bitcoin is mid-cycle, with more room to grow.



The PI Cycle Top Indicator points in the same direction. The market has historically topped out when the 350-day MA x 2 crossed above the 111-day EMA. Again, the indicator suggests there is room to grow.



I also quite like to watch the MVRV Z-Score to track how Bitcoin is doing. It tracks how far away Bitcoin's market price is from the realized price. The further away it goes, the more frothy conditions are believed to be.

The indicator is still tame, compared to previous cycles - suggesting room to grow.



It's not all indicators though, just look at the halving cycle. History shows that the Bitcoin cycle likes to keep running for quite some time, post-halving.

So far, it hasn't even been close to a year yet.



In essence, many reliable signs suggest Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle consolidation phase. The Trump admin just took over, and they're actively discussing if/how the US Government can have a strategic reserve with various crypto-assets.

Generally speaking, these things mark a top - when they actually happen. Just like the Coinbase listing in 2021, and the CME Futures in 2017.

Expecting price to keep pushing higher for the better part of 2025, and it wouldn't surprise me if a Bitcoin reserve announcement ends up putting in the top for this cycle.

Not yet though. Send it higher.
https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1887855509257986336