Open source is messy - and even participating in non-censored forums is messy, and sometimes bad actors will take advantage of the openness and engage in disingenuine discussions. Disingenuiness is usually considered to be on purpose, yet sometimes attempts at participation might not necessarily be with bad intent, yet sometimes have bad results in terms of wasting time - yet since no one is in charge, it can be difficult to know where to draw the line.. or if someone has the authority to draw the line or maybe sometimes the more honest participants might get driven out by the trolls.
It is, but if you want to become an authority on it nobody is stopping you. Bitcoin Core is an open source wonder. If you want to become an authority nothing is prevent you except yourself. It is entirely based on merit. Knowledge and contributions is the path.
Most of my reason for writing my post was to respond to your previous post in which you seemed to have been proclaiming that some people do not deserve to whine about bitcoin core or various aspects of bitcoin's code on the basis that they did not know enough, and I was proclaiming that anyone can participate, so you seem to be backing off of your earlier claim(s).
Fair enough. Do you think $150k by the end of the year is bettable?
I think that odds are pretty good (maybe close to 40%), yet I have a hard time considering it bettable such as above 50% - even though I would bet some of the downside numbers are not going to happen (such as sub $80k or some other numbers that guys are throwing around - or implying to be within the cards.
Oh, I did say that I would be willing to bet $127k before the end of the year or at least by no later than the 1st quarter of 2026... and some of these could go either way.. so i am not that enthusiastic to enter into a bet even if we have decently good odds of overshooting some of the lower UP numbers, too.
Yes of course! I can't say anything about odds because I would be guessing like everyone else, but the error that most people make and don't realize is that they almost always assume consistently negative things will happen or continue to happen.
Yeah, but part of the reason I keep proposing bets is because guys are ongoingly proclaiming extreme things, and I am trying to get them to actually stand behind what they are proclaiming, and hardly anyone even engages in regards to the proposed bet, yet still continue to complain and propose things that they seem to be too afraid to stand behind with an actual bet. I am not even betting very extreme, yet I am making a proposal that the various naysayers should be willing to stand behind - such as whether the top is already in or whether the BTC price is going to ever dip below $80k and reasonable things like that, so they should be able to stand behind their proposition and take the opposite side of my proposed bet....
It is like some of the whining is that: "I used to think that $135k or greater was guaranteed, and now I am starting to feel less than 50/50 in regards to ever getting a new ATH this year blah blah blah.
And, by the way, if there are proclamations that the bear season has started, we better fucking at least get down to $80k or below, since we hardly even had a pump, so if the prices stay above $80k then it becomes quite difficult to be proclaiming that we are in bear season even if BTC prices go back below $100k and stay there for 6 months or longer.
Sure, it is reasonable to also assert that my definition of bear market is too strict... since I would at least want to go below the 100 week moving average, which is currently at around $80k and I would also want to get within about 30% or so of the 200-WMA (which is currently almost $54k - so 30% higher would currently be around $70k.
I will admit that maybe I am being too strict about what constitutes a bear versus a bull market, even though I am willing to bet against what I consider to be unbacked whining claims rather than anything the guys who are saying them are willing to stand behind.
The war with Russia will not end, the trade war with China will not improve, inflation will get worse or we will even enter a recession. They are assuming this but it is based on nothing,
I don't know what is being assumed beyond bitcoin is not going to go up and/or bitcoin is going to go down.. and/or the bull market is over..
Which macro factors are necessary, besides various monetary policies around printing of dollars?
even those things are somewhat ambiguous in terms of why anyone might be assuming the bear market to have had started whihc is that the top is in for bitcoin for this cycle, even though our last top of $126,272 on October 6 was ONLY a mere 11 days ago.
all of these events at 50-50 at any given time. They will happen eventually and they could happen this quarter, or in 2026 we just can't know.
I agree on that assertion.
Assuming the worst always is not helpful. Just imagine if we assumed the opposite of these things. War is over, trade war with China also solved with a deal, inflation numbers great and more interest rate cuts. It would be like the stars have aligned, meanwhile many people here assume the stars will nuke Earth into pieces.
The powers that be also frequently want us to be afraid and uncertain... especially normal people rather than their various rich friends, and frequently they seem to want their rich friends to be afraid and uncertain too.
I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF
For you ?
Or for all k of us?
Just a noob, it hits different
noobs should not give too many shits about the price, and if you are a noob, then you should be happy if the BTC price is either falling or slow in its going up. so you can spend 4 years or more focused on accumulating bitcoin, which is a process that should be done with ongoing buying, since selling is surely an uncertain way to build your stack and may well end up backfiring and leave you with way less bitcoin than if you had stayed concentrated and focused on ongoing buying of bitcoin.
Surely, some newbies are going to be able to front load their investment by injecting way more capital in the first 4 years, yet most newbies are not really able to front load their investment in any meaningful way, so they have to just keep accumulating as their income comes in, which surely seems to be a situation in which either flat or down prices should be welcomed, even though surely it can feel better for BTC prices to go up, it is not really helpful to the stacking journey of an overwhelming majority of newbs, whether they realize it or not.
[edited out]
I could respond to each point... but I can kind of do it in a summation here.
First of all, I am using something very similar to your sustainable withdrawal formula now. Great minds think alike.
I am doing something on the VERY conservative side. My burn rate does not use up the majority of my bitcoin before I have shuffled off. Most likely.
Of course, no need to respond to each point... Whatever works for you.
Personally, I think that there are ways to formulate price-based and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal methods in such a way that the dollar value is always going up, so even if the BTC quantity is going down, the withdrawal is at such a rate that the dollar value of the holdings is going up faster than the amount that you are withdrawing.. which is part of the reason that I assert that it is sustainable, which means the same as perpetual, which means the same as forever.. not that I am trying to be overly pedantic about this, but just trying to make it more clear based on our being in an open thread.
What I am toying with here is a way to use financial instruments to reduce variance, and avoid Cap Gains. All of this changes if Cap Gains goes away.
Fair enough about avoiding capital gains, yet I personally think that if we are valuating our holdings based on the 200-WMA - which is my suggestion, then the method already reduces variance since so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has ONLY gone up... so it is pretty damned steady.
But, yeah, selling does not really reduce capital gains to the extent that we might be going over the exempted amounts.
The loan is the thing that avoids the taxes. But instead adds interest. So then the calculation is what speed MUST I pay the loan off at before Cap Gains would have been a better deal.
I get worried about the extent of losing control over the coins, in terms of the contract, but yeah, if it is only a small fraction of your coins, such as less than 25 % in my earlier example (in which I assumed a total quantity of bitcoin that was 20 BTC, and using 15 for sustainable withdrawal and using the other 5 for some loan) then it might be workable.
I have not seen any of the loan programs that excite me, such as if I were to pay less than 10% in interest and fees, then maybe I might start to become interested in such products... perhaps... but even the example that I gave, if there was a loan that was using 5 bitcoin, then perhaps only a couple of the coins would be used, and the rest would be collateral.
So I have a lot of work to do with these calculations. My gut tells me most of these numbers will NOT be something I want to dip my toe into YET. The interest rates are high. For anything under 250k/year (I do NOT need more than this) the APR at maturity is 13%. Cap Gains in the US on a long term sale is 15%. My basis is pretty close to zero (lol). At least this makes the math easy (that said I have bought at prices much higher than where most of my stack was acquired). So 13% is a LOT of money for the loan. Cap Gains are a 1-off. BUT!!! Even in that scenario if Bitcoin were to 2x then the loan effectively ends up costing me something like 60-75% of the bitcoin I would have had to use for them money when I took OUT the loan.
Your roughly going through the numbers don't really inspire me to want to even look into loans, since probably there are going to need to be rates that are at least less than 10%, and maybe I would not be happy unless they were close to 8% or lower.
The PUT Options are interesting. This is purely insurance. And at the moment I entered a contract I would consider that money GONE. But this protects me against bears.
I hardly given any shits about bears anymore, which perhaps the price-based withdrawals on the way up seem to largely take care of those downside insurance kinds of of matters.. Even in my time-based sustainable withdrawal, I suggest at various points that extra BTC can be withdrawn based on how high the spot price gets from the 200-WMA., so then by the time the BTC price gets more than 4x higher than the 200-WMA, then my self-guidance allows the withdraw up to 23 months in advance rather than merely withdrawing monthly... and of course, with me, everything is a ladder, so there are various points along the way that extra months are authorized to be taken out. I am not sure if it completely protects downside, since my price-based sustainable withdraw can also provide money for selling on the way up and then being able to set numbers upon which you might buy back, if the BTC price goes back down...not in a trading way, but instead as a kind of downside insurance, like you said.
It is a way to maximize the benefit of uppity... by taking out a loan for my "withdrawal" while counting on BTC to keep going UP enough to maker the loan+interest worth it, while hedging that bet with the put option so I cannot get trapped by a situation where the loan is due and I have to use more bitcoin to pay it off than the loan was for in the first place.
The question ends up being... is there a combination of these tools that gives me a potential edge over the simple, clean method of withdrawal only?
I get scared by the complication of the matter, yet if you are able to clearly outline various terms, then you can account for the costs and determine if it is worth it, and surely you can start out practicing with smaller amounts, and maybe you will come to realize that it is not worth it to overly complicate matters, especially since bitcoin is already designed to pump forever... and you can calculate the pump forever into whatever kinds of sustainable wthdrawals that you choose to employ along the way.
And I am not certain yet. BUT if there is a way to give significant chance of sustaining my stack... well it should be considered I think.
Surely I have frequently considered that there are three stages, so once we got through accumulation and maintenance stages, then we are in liquidation (or sustainable withdrawal) stage, and if we have accumulated enough or more than enough then we should not be worried about our bitcoin stash going down as long as the dollar value continues to go up. i think that measuring the dollar value in terms of the 200-WMA gives a more accurate assessment of the dollar value going up and/or if we might be depleting our BTC holdings too rapidly. I don't consider it necessary to continue to build the BTC stack size as long as we always stay in over accumulation status, and surely we should be able to know whether we have gotten there and how much extra BTC we have.
If our BTC stash is just 5% to 50% greater than our threshold level, we might not feel as comfortable as if our bitcoin might be 3x, to 5x to 10x or more greater than our threshold target level, and yeah of course, I recognize that it is difficult to speak in terms of abstracts which was the reason that I had given the example of the $80k per year income (and the 14.833 bitcoin) as my earlier examples... and yeah you can double or triple it.. if your are talking about $160k or $240k per year... or cut it by half if you ar talking about $40k per year.
If we are working with examples, then we can see where there might be contention points, and surely I am having trouble recognizing that the bitcoin stash has to stay stable or to grow once we have entered into sustainable withdrawal and I don't see any need for it, since sustainable withdrawal should be able to last forever, including a 7% per year increases in the dollar amount withdrawn.. what more is needed or required? The employment of the financial instruments such as loans and/or puts seem to be just fun things to play around with, yet I don't see how they are helpful unless you are considering that you have not accumulated enough bitcoin.
As you say the punchline is using financial instruments to protect the stack. At least lower the burn rate while pulling what I need. ALL of this is based on the idea that Bitcoin is not done going up.
I am going to work through the numbers... if I see a way that makes sense I will report that here.
I think that a lot of us have already gotten to a point that our bitcoin greatly exceeds our needs, so we merely have to protect it so that we are not adding to our withdrawal rate based on losses.
And, let's say with the $80k example, you were to have less than the 14.833 bitcoin, such as you ONLY have 12 bitcoin, and you had been acting like you are a big baller, but you are really not quite at the rate that you need, and so you can either choose to put off your withdrawing for a few months or you could withdraw at a lower rate, such as withdrawing at $60k rather than $80k until your stash size meets the minimum level for that $80k withdrawal rate.. so if you were to ONLY have 12 BTC, then you could wait around 6-ish months once the 200-WMA reaches and/or exceeds $66,666, then at that time your BTC holdings will have had crossed into being valued at $800k based on the 200-WMA valuation and then be able to sustain an $80k per year income... right now the 200-WMA is going up around $50 per day.. so it could take more than 6 months at the current rate for the 200-WMA to get to or exceed $66,666.
Right now, with the 200-WMA ONLY at slightly less than $54k, 12 bitcoin only currently supports about a $64.8k annual withdrawal rate..
I still think there is gonna be a recession here soon. I expect 'everything' at least initally will go down...with btc maybe a bit more drastic...
I also assume btc will come back first in all this...and at least go sideways if a complete sh*tshow...and ideally pump due to all the dollar 'angst'
but...it took a few years for the economy and the country to get to this place, right or wrong, it is gonna take a couple years to get out of such
as they say 'adul'ting' is hard....in the meantime picking up 'btc dust' as I can
Remember I'd love to be utterly wrong...no way in 2020 at the low
would I have expected this 10x pump in 5 years...but 'btc: is a merciless bitch' with folk's emotions...she always comes back but may 'slum it' for a
bit till she returns.
The low in the 2020 crashening, as you likely recall, was down to $3,800, so right now we are about 28x higher than that price (since we are at $108,360). Maybe some folks consider current prices to be too high and a correction is needed, yet I continue to have my doubts about how low bitcoin can go, even if we end up getting down from here. Going below $80k is possible, yet I am still willing to bet that it does not..
Anyone? Anyone?
I will keep this bet open until we go below $95k, then I might start to worry that $80k might not stand.. right now, we are still at $108,360 as I type this post. (
Edit.. .
Added note.. I am not going to change my post, yet I will recognize that my asserted BTC price did not age too well. since about 25-ish minutes after the post, we have a further dip down to $106,931.. so my earlier price assertion is no longer valid for the specifics of the calculation that I was making, even though the idea still stands, more or less).
~"Wrapped" Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold: controlled by someone else, and you can't even check if it exists. And if you lose the keys, the creator of those "wrapped" coins gets richer instead of this:
I had a similar argument with many especially on the subreddit but most of them claim that backed by is just same as real so they prefer WBTC, BTC-ETF or any Shitcoin that claims to be bitcoin too only because it is cheaper when they withdraw from the exchange.
All they see is value/price, not why or what Bitcoin is, so I ignore such people because educating them seems to be an impossible task for me.
Many people believe that it is just quibbling to get all worked up about whether or not the actual private keys are held by oneself rather than being held by someone else and/or even there might be several hops, since they may well consider that bitcoin that has a yield is better than bitcoin that has no yield, so their greed is likely fogging their vision into thinking that custodied bitcoin is better than boring on chain bitcoin that has no bells and/or whistles.
Poll
