Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Another Bitcoin dump.

If $106,000 $107,000 support breaks it will drop all the way to (sub)$100,000 ore this is the bottom.

[Faazs]

There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet .. unless it never arrived in their wallet .

Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.

This is not the correct comparison. Wrapped Bitcoin are not fake Bitcoin as long as they are backed by locked in Bitcoin and always redeemable.

"Wrapped" Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold: controlled by someone else, and you can't even check if it exists. And if you lose the keys, the creator of those "wrapped" coins gets richer instead of this:

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone.

Exactly! That’s the harsh truth many still overlook. Wrapped Bitcoin might sound like innovation, but in reality, it’s just rehypothecation in crypto clothing. You’re basically handing your BTC to a custodian and getting a “receipt” token back, one that only holds value as long as that custodian stays honest, solvent, and operational. Bitcoin was meant to free us from that kind of system. It was built so that you become your own bank, not so that we recreate banks with fancy smart contracts. It’s funny when people say, “WBTC brings Bitcoin to DeFi,” but what it really does is bring trust-based risk back to Bitcoin. You can’t audit their reserves directly, and if that middleman ever fails, it’s not “decentralized finance” anymore, it’s just “decentralized dependency.” Sure, it might serve some short-term purposes like liquidity and bridging between ecosystems, but let’s be honest, when you wrap your Bitcoin, you’re wrapping it in risk. So yeah, the comparison stands strong, "Wrapped Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold",  a representation, not the real deal and at the end of the day, the same old rule applies, "Not your keys, not your Coins, Not your Bitcoin, not your freedom".

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Another Bitcoin dump.

If $106,000 $107,000 support breaks it will drop all the way to (sub)$100,000 ore this is the bottom.

We never really stood a chance with Trump in charge did we, this year. His bipolar, autistic outbursts and rage posting online have stopped us being able to sustain a proper bull market.

I don’t want to see anybody telling me ‘we went from 15k to 126k’ because the only reason we went to 15k is because Bitcoin performs terribly in bear markets. I prefer to measure cycle top to cycle top, so $1300 in 2013 to $19,000 in 2017 to $69,000 in 2021 to $126,000 in 2025. So as we can see, vastly diminishing returns. I guess the real test is what the bottom of the next bear market will. We have to assume it won’t be so bad as previous times so maybe ‘only’ a 50% haircut from $126,000.

It is what it is, I’m very lucky I got in early. The huge gains we used to get have retired me and I am so thankful to Satoshi and the entire Bitcoin community. Not even 2x from 2021 cycle top is a warning sign though maybe. For clarity, I think the top is in and this cycle is definitely over. Tempted to take JJG bet that we won’t see a new ATH before the end of Q1 2026, seems like free money. We won’t see a new ATH for a couple of years at least in my opinion, maybe even 2029. I think we hit over $160,000 in 2029 though.

[psycodad]

<snip>

*get your coins OUT of P2PK addresses if you are fortunate enough to have them.  Put them in P2SH a (3xxxx) or bech32 (bc1qxxxx) ASAP.  Personally I would avoid Taproot addresses unless you run CL/LND.

Thanks for all the valuable input there, greatly appreciated thoughts from you!

But could you elaborate a bit on the above, last point (asking for a friend ofc..)?

[Odohu]

Another Bitcoin dump.

If $106,000 $107,000 support breaks it will drop all the way to (sub)$100,000 ore this is the bottom.

At this point, I don't want to look at the chart anymore instead I will consolidate on my Bitcoin accumulation after all, I'm still far from reaching my target. If this dump continues, I will see it as Bitcoin giving me a second chance to make my future as beautiful as I have dreamt.

By the way, I had no plans of selling should the bull run continues since I have seen how good it is to hold for years.

[LoyceV]

6.  There is recent concern that the US Gvmt might have hacked wallets to become the #2 BTC holder after Satoshi*

What makes you say this? There's no "hacking" long random numbers.

8.  Over the span of ~1 year we have moved from 25k->125k->108k  we quintupled BTC's market cap.  We are talking about >1.5 TRILLION dollars.

The last time Bitcoin was sold for $25k was 2 years ago.

But even #8 considered I think there are a LOT of reasons bitcoin could not be finished yet for this cycle.

I always tell myself 30% drops are normal on the way up.

Also "cycles"?  are they still going?? Or are they over.  Yes... to both in my opinion.

The 4 year cycle was based on Bitcoin halving and thus less sales from miners. That difference it makes literally gets cut in half every 4 years, so there's no reason for those cycles to continue forever.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

It literaly screams for an aggressive BTC rebound.


x.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

----

We never really stood a chance with Trump in charge did we, this year. His bipolar, autistic outbursts and rage posting online have stopped us being able to sustain a proper bull market.

I don’t want to see anybody telling me ‘we went from 15k to 126k’ because the only reason we went to 15k is because Bitcoin performs terribly in bear markets. I prefer to measure cycle top to cycle top, so $1300 in 2013 to $19,000 in 2017 to $69,000 in 2021 to $126,000 in 2025. So as we can see, vastly diminishing returns. I guess the real test is what the bottom of the next bear market will. We have to assume it won’t be so bad as previous times so maybe ‘only’ a 50% haircut from $126,000.

It is what it is, I’m very lucky I got in early. The huge gains we used to get have retired me and I am so thankful to Satoshi and the entire Bitcoin community. Not even 2x from 2021 cycle top is a warning sign though maybe. For clarity, I think the top is in and this cycle is definitely over. Tempted to take JJG bet that we won’t see a new ATH before the end of Q1 2026, seems like free money. We won’t see a new ATH for a couple of years at least in my opinion, maybe even 2029. I think we hit over $160,000 in 2029 though.

Market maker trolling us with a soul crushing beartrap.

[BobLawblaw]

ENJOY THE PAIN!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

----

We never really stood a chance with Trump in charge did we, this year. His bipolar, autistic outbursts and rage posting online have stopped us being able to sustain a proper bull market.

I don’t want to see anybody telling me ‘we went from 15k to 126k’ because the only reason we went to 15k is because Bitcoin performs terribly in bear markets. I prefer to measure cycle top to cycle top, so $1300 in 2013 to $19,000 in 2017 to $69,000 in 2021 to $126,000 in 2025. So as we can see, vastly diminishing returns. I guess the real test is what the bottom of the next bear market will. We have to assume it won’t be so bad as previous times so maybe ‘only’ a 50% haircut from $126,000.

It is what it is, I’m very lucky I got in early. The huge gains we used to get have retired me and I am so thankful to Satoshi and the entire Bitcoin community. Not even 2x from 2021 cycle top is a warning sign though maybe. For clarity, I think the top is in and this cycle is definitely over. Tempted to take JJG bet that we won’t see a new ATH before the end of Q1 2026, seems like free money. We won’t see a new ATH for a couple of years at least in my opinion, maybe even 2029. I think we hit over $160,000 in 2029 though.

Market maker trolling us with a soul crushing beartrap.

Probably. Because with the amount of printing coming up I just don't see a bear market for some time, in any asset. USD is not an asset.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

ENJOY THE PAIN!

So much winning…..





Hope you and Rick are good and the ranch is coming on well.

[bitserve]

ENJOY THE PAIN!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Moreno233]

ENJOY THE PAIN!

"NO PAIN, NO GAIN"

No matter what, trust the process (Bitcoin), imbibe consistency.

[hypebrother]

Seasoned investors may now take sides with wall street and have your say.
For wall street is a very good street.
for me to poop on.

[BTCETFInvestor]

It literaly screams for an aggressive BTC rebound.

Agree! In November and December there will likely be a healthy rejuvenation.

Crazy how so many OGs whine like a 13 year old girl about the volatility.