Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

here is hoping some dip was purchased  today.

I got some.

[bitmover]

It literaly screams for an aggressive BTC rebound.


x.

By this chart... BTC could easily reach 180k if it bounces back to the the equivalent M2!!

[LoyceV]

By this chart... BTC could easily reach 180k if it bounces back to the the equivalent M2!!

The vertical axes seem to be choses for a specific purpose. They're even on different scales!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Crazy how so many OGs whine like a 13 year old girl about the volatility.  

[Hottiek]

ENJOY THE PAIN!

 I am also glad I stopped looking at the price... My testicular fortitude was chiseled by my titanium plate training in 2015 and again in 2018. I am, however, a bit disappointed, as I was planning for the first time in my 3rd cycle to shave some off... That being said, if we did top... then I am all ready to ride the ride yet again... I really still have a lil hope left... Guess it's time to break out the plates again... Start whacking away till I feel nothing once more!!! That's just it. If I watched the last 2 bears, why would I sell now??? The craziest part is how much I dont care about the massive life-changing weekly swings that I am used to (even though nothing really changes... 1 BTC is still 1 BTC.) There is no mindrusting here. and I have been long since the 200's!   
We all get BTC at the price we deserve
K

[BTCETFInvestor]

here is hoping some dip was purchased  today.

I got some.

Excellent, Phil! All while others are whining and panicking! 

[MrNata]

I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF

It's my turn to witness a full bull run the bull is running backwards

You must not sell in this market cycle so there is no point in you panicking. History has shown that those who held across market cycles have been more profitable than those looking to sell at the peak of the bull run to buy back during the following bear market. Besides, it is more peaceful simply holding your coins than trying to flip them as some people do and end up opening themselves up to risk and uncertainties due to the fact that you cannot completely predict where will be the peak and bottom and indeed what the market will do in the future.

Looking at the history of Bitcoin, it is clear that those who made decisions based on excessive emotion or were too hasty in making decisions, but later regretted it. Investors who are overly emotional cause their own losses. If they hold on to their investments for a long time, this investment will not only provide profits to an investor but will also protect an investor from excessive mental stress as well as from excessive trading fees, but our Bitcoin will be protected.

Bull runs will come in the market and bears will come, but at this time we have to be patient enough. Those who held on to their investments even in these difficult times or after temporary gains have ultimately succeeded, but those who have less patience have regretted selling their investments later.

We probably survived the biggest dumping in the Bitcoin market in 2017 and 2021, but even during this time, there were many investors who held on to their investments and trusted the market, but they have now made hundreds of times more profit.
Why don't we understand this before investing that the supply of Bitcoin is limited, so the price of this Bitcoin can definitely go to a much higher level in the future.

Those who are regretting after the price of Bitcoin touches $100k may be the same as those in this category of people who will regret when the price of Bitcoin touches $200k because they will only wait for the investment but will not invest.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[yslyv]

$ell.
BTCuy.

 

[Karl_3000]

Those who are regretting after the price of Bitcoin touches $100k may be the same as those in this category of people who will regret when the price of Bitcoin touches $200k because they will only wait for the investment but will not invest.

This is the reason I prefer DCA or to average as the price fall. I missed because I said bitcoin price should fall, the price fell but I still think the price will fall more until I realized that I have missed again.

What that can help is DCA and other means if averaging.

I am investing 10% of my weekly income on bitcoin, this makes it not stressful for me if the price is going down. But I have in mind to invest 30%, if bitcoin fall to $90000, I plan to invest 10% more. If bitcoin fall to $72500, I plane to invest the rest which makes it 30%. But if the price of bitcoin did not go below $100,000, I will only be investing the 10%. This has been helping me than to be waiting for the price to fall.

[philipma1957]

Those who are regretting after the price of Bitcoin touches $100k may be the same as those in this category of people who will regret when the price of Bitcoin touches $200k because they will only wait for the investment but will not invest.

This is the reason I prefer DCA or to average as the price fall. I missed because I said bitcoin price should fall, the price fell but I still think the price will fall more until I realized that I have missed again.

What that can help is DCA and other means if averaging.

I am investing 10% of my weekly income on bitcoin, this makes it not stressful for me if the price is going down. But I have in mind to invest 30%, if bitcoin fall to $90000, I plan to invest 10% more. If bitcoin fall to $72500, I plane to invest the rest which makes it 30%. But if the price of bitcoin did not go below $100,000, I will only be investing the 10%. This has been helping me than to be waiting for the price to fall.

I prefer dca and hodl along with buy the dip and hodl.

[Karl_3000]

I prefer dca and hodl along with buy the dip and hodl.

Exactly this is what that I meant in short words, it is better than saying I will buy the dip but still miss it, acting early is better with good strategic move.

[Spaceman1000$]

It literaly screams for an aggressive BTC rebound.

Agree! In November and December there will likely be a healthy rejuvenation.

Crazy how so many OGs whine like a 13 year old girl about the volatility.  

Definitely the rejuvenation will likely take a bolder step within that period, we just need to be virtuously patient to see how the push up will be by then. Volatility is one vulnerability that a lot of people hardly get use to, it sometimes eats the confidence in you 🤣. But if you could easily go through the hurdles, you will definitely enjoy the result.

[Agbamoni]

I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF

It's my turn to witness a full bull run the bull is running backwards

Worst take ever. Or worst joke ever. You are aware this is the worst period to sell your coins? Or are you just being ignorant?
In as much as I'm leaning on Bitcoin going bearish, I wont forget what happened in  late 2020 and again around mid-2023.
In 2020 it went from $10k to over $40k and in mid-2023 it bounced back from $25k to $45k after everyone made their conclusion by turning bearish.
Might be ya first cycle to experience bull run but it wont be ya last. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Greyhats]

I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF

It's my turn to witness a full bull run the bull is running backwards

Worst take ever. Or worst joke ever. You are aware this is the worst period to sell your coins? Or are you just being ignorant?
In as much as I'm leaning on Bitcoin going bearish, I wont forget what happened in  late 2020 and again around mid-2023.
In 2020 it went from $10k to over $40k and in mid-2023 it bounced back from $25k to $45k after everyone made their conclusion by turning bearish.
Might be ya first cycle to experience bull run but it wont be ya last. 

Aye hodl the line, as we have done since forever! HHHHHHHHOOOOODDDDLLLLLL!!!!!

This is the time to be contrarian, feeling rebellious lfg!

[asUHWEceyc]

So here is one possible VERY simple plan.

A.  Take out a loan against my held value.
This is a huge topic in itself.  the OBVIOUS reasons for it are the same as why high net worth folks always do this.  I mitigate against taxes, and smooth out the variance of the bull/bear nature of BTC.  While hopefully preserving my stack.  There are not very many options available now (Strike Ledn etc) and most of them have ridonkulous interest rates.  But as nations begin to recognize BITCOIN as a real asset, other ways to borrow at lower rates may be possible.

B.  Buy Put options against Bitcoin.

C.  Repay loans as needed during bull markets as possible.

Lather, Rinse, Repeat.  --- and keep the stack healthy and perhaps even GROWING.
...

The problem with borrowing against coin is that all lenders- even those advertising no rehypothecation with deposit transparency- require custodianship of your precious.

In the case of ie Unchained, the third party multisig participant is essentially a senior co-borrower that'll sign your funds away should a catastrophic issue like bankruptcy arise.

It's been shown time and again that:
0) custodied funds are as good as gone until withdrawn. Sure, not all custodians are equal
1) you are the yield
2) no insurance, bailouts, takebacks. With luck, settlement plus fee duration-depreciated fiat equivalents are provided years later. This seems subject to change if a bigtimer incumbent like an ETF issuer gets truly hosed by a leading exchange at some point
3) mark to market loans (all natively advertised products currently available for coin???) are dicey with the regularly irregular volatility all know and love- sans extreme overcollateralization (see point 0)

If one borrows against a home, the lender doesn't get keys to rent a room on airbnb, nor the ability to foreclose should relevant taxation authorities deem the property 30% less valuable than last quarter for 2 minutes on a Sunday night. They can repackage your loan for other bets, but that's an unrelated 2008-level enchilada

(Strike Ledn etc) and most of them have ridonkulous interest rates

With natively marketed lending rates (12-15%+), it might make more sense to assume home equity credit, a structured loan, or even uncollateralized debt [credit cards] which often provide similar or lower rates, and then skim price appreciation within cap gains for deleveraging where opportunistic, at least until mark to market scams aren't the only game in town and/or rates become more reasonable. They can't take your coins and there's no liquidation risk. Hell, they can't force delinquent serfs to pay back anything without court action.

Which is more nightmare inducing?
A) Liquidation
B) "Safe" overcollateralization   

PS- it may even be possible to deduct loan interest when exceeding applicable cap gains limits

I appriiciate the input.  And counterparty risk is the biggest problem with my idea I can think of.  And it is part of my calculation.

However, I would say the two lenders I mention have distinct differences from scams like Celcius.  First I am not depositing to earn yield which is an obvious ponzi.  I would be depositing and PAYING them yield.  It is a collateralized loan.  Ledn is 7 years old, and Strike is about the same age... the latter is run by a long time Bitcoin advocate.  So as you say "I am the yield".  But in this case that is the whole point of why it works for both parties.

But those details might reduce risk, but not eliminate it entirely.  The counterparty risk is still there.  I would just say not as bad as something like Celcius or BlockFi.  And the risk extends beyond the company itself...  it extends to the custodian (probably CB in LEDN's case... maybe Strike too) as well as governments etc.

Agreed that the organization/individual mentioned is on the up and up and that aligned incentives create better outcomes, but the fact remains that coins are scarce and irreplaceable beyond loss or seizure.

Eventually fiat financiers will want bitcoin warrants badly enough to only require a signed message for lending, and this service line should only become more competitive

The reason I want to solve this problem is the hurdle rate of almost any sort of loan is easily overcome by the BTC CAGR.  Of course considering it keeps going etc etc...

Combine this with the ability to buy puts against IBIT, say... make the opportunity very appealing.

Also food for thought: consider that utilizing ANY fiat<->coin financial services creates unique markers for future confiscation, repression, imprisonment (or lauding?!) by relevant authorities for whatever reasoning (guilty before proven innocent/CAF), associated or unrelated mafiosos, or local barnyard flavored bandits- even if you "sold it all" whereas paper or derivatives activites do not. Moreover, coins fully untainted by serf identity controls are treated with even greater scrutiny by fiat finance, and are both more valuable and ripe for seizure. Ain't nobody showing up to steal your house deed simply cuz you lived there 20 years. It sounds crazy for polite first world-dom, but one need look no further than property rights re-norming, most recently ca1933 yadayada

[Greyhats]

At the same time, so far in bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA continues to move up, and historically, whenever we ended up hitting the 200-WMA with the price, it tended to be 6 months or longer after the ATH, and those ATH's had tended to be several multiples higher than the 200-WMA by the time that the ATH was in, so in 2017 the high spot price was around 14x higher than the 200-WMA and in late 2021, the high was around 4x higher than the 200-WMA (the early 2021 price was around 4.5x higher than the 200-WMA).

Another thing is that the BTC price did not tend to go below the 200-WMA, except for flash crash situations,  except for the period between June 2022 until October 2023, in which we spent a lot of time below the 200-WMA while the 200-WMA moved from $22k at the beginning of that 16 month period and ended slightly higher than $27k at the end of that 16 month period, and of course the worst of the BTC prices ended up being right around 35% lower than the 200-WMA in November 2022.

This cycle, so far, we have not had BTC prices that have gotten much higher than 2.5x higher than the 200-WMA... so the top has not been so extreme to justify as great of a correction, even though surely shenanigans can happen, so I am not ruling out great levels of correction, even though it seems a bit improbable to be expecting those levels of correction - especially guys selling and expecting to be able to buy back at those kinds of low prices.

It is probably healthy for you to not let your expectations get to high, but you still have to calculate that the 200-WMA is a moving target, and in order to have 20% below the 200-WMA to equal $43k-ish, you have to go with today's 200-WMA, and do you really think that the odds are very good that the BTC price would go shooting straight down within a very short period of time in order to make that 20% below the 200-WMA as feasible?  You are describing a quite outrageous scenario, even though surely I still have buy orders down to about $32k. .so yeah, maybe yu could refer to me as a bit overprotective, too.. I just hate running out of money when the price goes shooting down

I might even be willing to give you odds on anything below $53k... even though my current outstanding proposal for a 50/50 bet is that the price is never going below $80k, and I would probably like consession that I had won the bet if the BTC price goes above $300k before the end of 2027. .

Still not betting but yes o consider the 200wma as a moving target to the upside, I’m not as good at trying to guess the future wma prices but atm seems to be going up about 250/month so I think -20% is a catch all to that as well a bit of when we did dip under it for periods of time. If I consider figuring the bottom this is definitely one area I’m more bearish. I’m still a firm believer we are still in a 4yr cycle, I als don’t think we have made the Ath yet for this cycle so am expecting the 200wma to increase at a faster rate.

You are right tho I might being too pessimistic but hopefully Btc surprises me!