@JJG -
gm to our resident sentiment interrogator
An "interrogator" is not necessarily a good thing to be considered. Trolls engage in those kinds of behaviors.. They interrogate, and then do not provide much of anything of value on their own end. hahahaha
OK, I did the math and I sold 4.70% at $121,200 to be precise. That wasn’t a panic sell, I planned to sell some around $125,000 but had a conversation with El Duderino_ one evening and he had recently sold some so I thought to take some pressure off the table so I could stop staring at charts 100 times a day. So I pulled the trigger and now have six years of living expenses (probably more than most people earn in over 10 years). I retired in 2021 in my thirties and am living on my Bitcoin. I have enough to take me to the death bed quite comfortably (I think). But I have to be honest with you, I did shave another couple of percent off at $92,000 earlier in the year when all that tariff BS was going on.
You should know (and/or recall) that I completely have no problem with shaving off various profits along the way, since a lot of my talking points deal with that kind of incrementalism, and surely I recall a few years ago that you were planning on selling everything, and then you came to realize that bitcoin remains a lifetime investment, even if we have to suffer through an extensive amount of volatility (and even seeming drama) in order to keep on holding onto it.
I am not completely immuned to the kinds of frustrations related to the ups and downs of BTC price moves and sometimes blaming what seems to be the cause of changes in momentum.. even though surely it seems my level of anxiety does not quite reach the same levels of yours, including some of your articulation of such frustrations has been recently going way further than I would have had thought to be good for yourself and even your influence on other forum members who are surely in different stages of their bitcoin accumulation journey - not that any of us really know bitcoin's direction or even have any responsibilities to spread good bitcoin information, whether we are frustrated with aspects of it or not.
My anxiety around price comes from the fact that I had planned to sell quite a bit more this year, I wanted to pull out $3,000,000 to diversify into real estate and also my Mrs wanted a bigger home. We actually bought our current home without a mortgage in 2022 after the 2021 bull run. No regrets there, although it was 15 Bitcoin and it is now worth 8 Bitcoin
I am fine in this house but you know what women are like. But I will not sell any Bitcoin below $125,000 - $130,000 now. I just can not justify selling here.
I surely did not want to coax these levels of details out of you. We can delete out the details if you want.. even though perhaps it might be too late... perhaps? I kind of prefer talking in hypotheticals.. but sure, guys can share whatever information in order to put context to situations.. . yet I doubt that we necessarily want to become public figures.
You likely realize that I am more into incremental withdrawals that might be price based and/or time based rather than lump sum withdrawals, yet at the same time, it is hard to object various lump sum withdrawals that still might end up constituting less than 10% for every doubling, and sure, guys could withdraw more, but if guys are merely withdrawing within a ballpark of 10% for every doubling, then it would be difficult to overextend the withdrawal - even though you would end up with less bitcoin.
And, yeah, if you had withdrawn 25% at around $50k, then it would be difficult to justify withdrawing any more than 10% between your withdrawals around $92k and $121k, unless you had largely replaced the BTC that you had withdrawn around $50k so that you really had not gone through any meaningful reduction of your BTC at or around $50k.
Of course, you can do whatever, you want, and I am just giving my opinion in regards to what I would consider not overdoing the withdrawals in a way that you end up regret selling too much too soon in the event that the BTC price ends up continuing to go up after the point of your sale.
I’ve calmed down a little bit now,
For sure it can help to take some off of the table, especially if you can see yourself getting overly anxious about only one direction, and surely even the amount that you had taken off the table, you might end up getting tempted in using some of that to buy back cheaper... perhaps? Sometimes it can be difficult to achieve both objectives of taking some out yet also replacing some of the BTC that were sold in the event that the BTC price substantially drops, which surely we have had since $121k and even since our so far top of $126,272
if the top is in then it’s in, nothing we can do about it.
That is true.. even though I still think that the odds are less than 50% that the top is in... I am not sure if I am able to articulate much more specifics than less than 50%.. I am not so sure that it would be 60%, so from my own calculation it is somewhere in the 50% range but less than 60% that the top is not in.
I am positioned well either way but am disappointed if the cycle is finito. If we can build some support at $107,000 and stocks hold up well then we could be in business towards the end of the year because Powell is due to cut rates and Trump will TACO on China tariffs so that could calm markets.
I really doubt it is going to take that long (meaning until the end of the year).. but, yeah, who knows?
Regarding a bet I am not 100% confident the cycle is over but I made a commitment so let’s say for 100,000 satoshis -
No more ATHs before the end of Q1 2026. If we hit a new ATH before end of Q1 2026 I pay you 100,000 sats. If we don’t you pay me 100,000 sats.
Deal?
That sounds reasonable... . and to be sent either on chain or by lightning network depending on fees, but the recipient has to receive 100k sats.., and probably we could use the deadline for the bet to be either 23:59 UTC time on March 31, 2026 or perhaps 0:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026. 1 minute either way should not make a difference.
Of course, it should go without saying (but is good for any observers) that we know that we are using Bitstamp as our price reference, so the BTC price happenings on any other exchange or price oracle would be irrelevant noise in regards to our bet.
And, by the way, even if you were 75% or more confident about your side of the bet, then it would seem worthy of making the bet, since we are never going to be 100% confident.. and as I mentioned above, my own confidence level of is merely in the 50% territory. .but I think that the odds are in my favor rather than against, which is why I proposed the bet, and partly to get you to put your money where your mouth is, since you were becoming quite loud, which was starting to seem that you might not even sufficiently believe what you were saying... hahahahaha.. so in that sense, it is good to have the bet, just to get each of us to stand behind our comments in some reasonable and/or measurable way.
Oh and the other thing is that you are so much on a timeline (schedule) in regards to your perception of bitcoin's need to perform within a certain window, so part of my own lure is to allow for the possibility that the ATH could come in the first quarter of 2026 rather than coming in 2025.. which you likely consider to hardly be giving anything extra away, since from your perspective, bitcoin is largely on a timeline. hahahaha. I would so much love if the ATH did not come until sometime in the 1st quarter of 2026... to really shake some of that timeline out of your own thinking...
yet at the same time, surely I could end up being the one who ends up eating crow. .and surely I am thinking that if the top is $126,272, then surely going below $0k for the correction (or for the bear) does not even seem very likely (even though there is more than a zero chance that the BTC price could end up going below $0k)
Anybody else reading, in the words of DJT, ’Thank you for your attention to this matter’
Even if our egos might get a wee bit in the way, it should be a somewhat topical bet... since we are betting on both BTC price direction and the intensity of such BTC price movement, in terms of whether there is enough intensity for it to get back above $126,272 prior to 0:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026.. I expect that we are not going to need the whole 5.5-ish months to resolve this disputed matter
(in my favor).
By the way, I expect that I would start to lose a decent amount of my confidence if we were to start to get close to $80k. That would not be a good sign for my side of the bet prevailing.
Maybe one more clarification. 100k sats is the same as 0.001 BTC... I am pretty sure that you are already used to giving away that many sats, since I seem to recall that you gave more than twice that amount to AlcoHoDL.. for free.. Free as in not costing AlcoHoDL anything.. He did not even have to bet you about any subject matter.
By the way. Thanks for your cooperation, LFC, in entering into this bet
and the nearly free sats..
Poll
