Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JJG -

gm to our resident sentiment interrogator

OK, I did the math and I sold 4.70% at $121,200 to be precise. That wasn’t a panic sell, I planned to sell some around $125,000 but had a conversation with El Duderino_ one evening and he had recently sold some so I thought to take some pressure off the table so I could stop staring at charts 100 times a day. So I pulled the trigger and now have six years of living expenses (probably more than most people earn in over 10 years). I retired in 2021 in my thirties and am living on my Bitcoin. I have enough to take me to the death bed quite comfortably (I think). But I have to be honest with you, I did shave another couple of percent off at $92,000 earlier in the year when all that tariff BS was going on.

My anxiety around price comes from the fact that I had planned to sell quite a bit more this year, I wanted to pull out $3,000,000 to diversify into real estate and also my Mrs wanted a bigger home. We actually bought our current home without a mortgage in 2022 after the 2021 bull run. No regrets there, although it was 15 Bitcoin and it is now worth 8 Bitcoin I am fine in this house but you know what women are like. But I will not sell any Bitcoin below $125,000 - $130,000 now. I just can not justify selling here.

I’ve calmed down a little bit now, if the top is in then it’s in, nothing we can do about it. I am positioned well either way but am disappointed if the cycle is finito. If we can build some support at $107,000 and stocks hold up well then we could be in business towards the end of the year because Powell is due to cut rates and Trump will TACO on China tariffs so that could calm markets.

Regarding a bet I am not 100% confident the cycle is over but I made a commitment so let’s say for 100,000 satoshis -

No more ATHs before the end of Q1 2026. If we hit a new ATH before end of Q1 2026 I pay you 100,000 sats. If we don’t you pay me 100,000 sats.

Deal?

Anybody else reading, in the words of DJT, ’Thank you for your attention to this matter’

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[SPIDERMAN008]

A #Bitcoin logo and the words “study bitcoin” were projected on the Czech National Bank 🇨🇿

https://x.com/BitcoinConfEUR/status/1979235041369571447?t=pDQsxdYwxWYLQ8hjxKLmKA&s=19p

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ivomm]

I'm sorry to say it, but most of the people writing here are oblivious to the realities and are getting caught up in the usual reasoning about the qualities of Bitcoin and chart analysis. There is a very significant reason for the lack of a bull market, besides the usual manipulations by the big players. And it is the gold market. I'll just quote an excerpt from the following article:

Geopolitics is fueling this new gold rush. Much of global demand comes from China, which is stockpiling gold to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, develop the means to influence the international monetary system, and shield itself from potential U.S. punitive measures. Last year, the People’s Bank of China covertly bought 630 tons of gold, and it has now accumulated more than twice the 2,530 tons that it officially declares, according to Money Metals analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs. China’s voracious appetite for gold has contributed to a spike in illicit gold mining across the Global South, prompting the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) to warn in May that organized crime in gold supply chains posed a “serious global threat.” (Some 50,000 illegal Chinese gold prospectors are believed to work in Ghana alone.)

https://time.com/7325561/ghana-gold-mahama-galamsey/

Currently, the whole world is in a gold rush at every level. Stocks, ETFs, physical gold, etc. One of the advantages of Bitcoin was that anyone could buy it, in the Western world at least. But this advantage disappeared with the advent of phone apps with which you can buy gold stocks easily. There this rush is not so obvious, but if you take the trouble to ask people, you will understand that from the most illiterate to the most educated and from the poorest to the richest, there is almost no person who is not involved in it. This is evident in the 3rd world, where people line up in kilometer-long queues for gold in front of banks, in the hope that they will get rich in a few days. Here are some videos from Australia, Singapore, Vietnam, etc. to see what it is all about:
https://x.com/i/status/1979376384243044821
https://x.com/i/status/1979178772210553272
https://x.com/i/status/1979135397570413038
https://x.com/i/status/1979135397570413038
https://x.com/i/status/1978768913656598999

This bubble will undoubtedly burst when China stops buying. But until that happens, we will not see an exponential bull market for Bitcoin because there is no retail market at all. When this rush subsides, Bitcoin will gradually calm down and start accumulating initially small but steady daily profits, which will start to attract the retail market again. This will at some point lead to the expected bull market, when the same n00bs rush to buy. This will be the end of this cycle, when these n00bs start panicking and selling at a 70-80% loss, as it has been so far. In short, the gold fever postpones this growth by a few months or even more. Until then, it is best to continue accumulating, knowing what will inevitably happen.

[Moreno233]

https://x.com/i/status/1979376384243044821
https://x.com/i/status/1979178772210553272
https://x.com/i/status/1979135397570413038
https://x.com/i/status/1979135397570413038
https://x.com/i/status/1978768913656598999

This bubble will undoubtedly burst when China stops buying. But until that happens, we will not see an exp. bull market for Bitcoin because there is no retail market at all. When this rush subsides, Bitcoin will gradually calm down and start accumulating initially small but steady daily profits, which will start to attract the retail market again. This will at some point lead to the expected bull market, when the same n00bs rush to buy. This will be the end of this cycle, when these n00bs start panicking and selling at a 70-80% loss, as it has been so far. In short, the gold fever postpones this growth by a few months or even more. Until then, it is best to continue accumulating, knowing what will inevitably happen.

This perfectly explain why gold is pumping so hard, it did not surprise me and many others though because with the trade wars, physical wars and friction between Russia and NATO which could trigger WW3, there was bound to be a shift from a currency that is controlled and seemingly weaponized by the US which is the dollar. Although some of us thought that Bitcoin would be the major beneficiary of such but instead gold was the asset of choice. Like you rightly said, it won't last forever, the bubble will definitely burst when China stops buying.

[d_eddie]

Regarding a bet I am not 100% confident the cycle is over but I made a commitment so let’s say for 100,000 satoshis -

That didn't sound like an unescapable commitment to me, while JJG's answer with the proposal did. However, an old school gentleman like you would not back out...

No more ATHs before the end of Q1 2026. If we hit a new ATH before end of Q1 2026 I pay you 100,000 sats. If we don’t you pay me 100,000 sats.

... especially if the puny price of 100k sats could serve as a mental insurance of better things to come, so to say. As in "I do lose 100k sats, but it means number really go up at last!"

So I'm glad you're both looking like a deal is near.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[WatChe]

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

He must be respected for the hard work he do to reply folks here.

[bitserve]

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

He must be respected for the hard work he do to reply folks here.

Indeed.

Maybe this time we should institute JJG Appreciation Saturdays? Maybe?

[BTCETFInvestor]

You can blame the natives (whales and 4-year cycle believers) for the recent selloff.

The outflow was ancient whales and native OGs selling - the institutions were buying...

Blame your fellow BTC hodler for selling and crashing the price!  

BTC ETF inflows: $2.4B

► https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morning-minute-bitcoin-falls-again-143026888.html

[WatChe]

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

He must be respected for the hard work he do to reply folks here.

Indeed.

Maybe this time we should institute JJG Appreciation Saturdays? Maybe?

Finally, someone wise enough to recognise the efforts of our dearest JJG.

If approved by the community. I will draft the official schedule  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Finestream]

Panic is for the weak.

Real holders don’t flinch, they refresh the chart and smile. 

[BTCETFInvestor]

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

He must be respected for the hard work he do to reply folks here.

Indeed.

Maybe this time we should institute JJG Appreciation Saturdays? Maybe?

Finally, someone wise enough to recognise the efforts of our dearest JJG.

If approved by the community. I will draft the official schedule  

So, you're in love with an asshole?  

[BitHodlers]

You claim to not be in favor of wrapped BTC, while at the same time spending quite a lot of time trying to proclaim that they are just a part of what we need to accept.

Sure, various shitty things happen in regards to bitcoin, yet I doubt any of us need to argue in favor of them.

I am not arguing in favor of them. I am trying to give a more balanced opinion instead of all is bad, everyone who uses it is bad. I have explained why. This kind of approach leads people to choose even worse instruments and getting scammed. If you don't care about them at all sure you can say it is their own fault. I don't think that is necessary though. If they want to use wrapped things, we can at least educate them on the risk and push them towards the better options? Again the big misunderstanding here is that you are supposed to compare wBTC to BTC, that is not correct and you can't make that comparison at all. You are supposed to compare it relative to other wrapped options like renBTC if that is still a thing to evaluate it in its own relative context of what it is. Anyhow don't you get tired of all the yes I agree responses to your posts in many other threads?

That sounds good theoretically, but most of the corporate treasuries are held this way. Why jump on WBTC as wrong? Did you write to Saylor that he should take control of his keys?  

Saylor is a bit of a dumb-ass in regards to his proclamations that custodial solutions are a good thing for either himself (his company) or even his various attempts to normalize those aspects of the way bitcoin is being held and/or sold - and so even Saylor likely realizes (since he is not a dummy) that bitcoin's power comes from its ability to be self-custodied (or threatened to be self-custodied), even if not everyone does it, and I think that I had heard Saylor acknowledge those points in the past, even though he has evolved into even less radical talking points in recent years as compared with some of his earlier years proselytizing bitcoin.

If you criticize Saylor and custodian wrapped solutions at the same time then that is fair. Here I want to say that criticizing custodians and wrapped solutions but applauding Saylor would be hypocritical and wrong.

You think that there needs to be some kind of a litmus test in order for guys to express their opinions about bitcoin code? and/or governance? whether they know anything about these topics or not?

I don't think any kind of standard test would be good because that introduces a centralized barrier for entry which can be abused. I think that with education and scrutiny by senior Bitcoin members we can achieve enough impact. We should not encourage somebody who doesn't even know how a Bitcoin address works to go and annoy the developers about issues relating to OP Return..

If you think about it there is already a decentralized litmus test anyway, that is what I was trying to tell you. If you are a good participant in the discussions meaning that you show correct knowledge and reasoning and especially if you start making good code contributions you have essentially passed the test. With time more and more contributors will value you and your reputation will rise. There is no centralized leaderboard for reputation, but there is a decentralized one.

That is the nature of open source, and also the nature of free speech and various kinds of public participation matters that can frequently involve differences of opinion and even chaos.-

I doubt that you know everything in regards to various topics in which you choose to participate.

I don't but this is not a good comparison. You can't have it both. Either you can have the Core developers efficient and good development work or you can have them losing a lot of time to random people and their wrong opinions and ideas. They are limited in numbers and their time is limited. Wouldn't it be better for them to spend time reviewing important code instead of responding to the 1000nd wrong post about OP RETURN by people who don't even know the basics of Bitcoin?

This modern world is strange. Not that long ago people would not share their false knowledge, they would wait until they became masters of a trade before they would try to educate someone else.

Historically, the internet did not exist in all parts of the world, so there seems to be ongoing adaptation to the role of communication and information in this new world, and surely bitcoin is value attached to information, which is also both a threat and empowering at the same time in regards to its paradigm changing nature, and we don't even know the ramifications of how bitcoin is going to play out.... so who is going to administer this litmus test that you would like to have activated?

The problem is a cultural one, no central solutions would solve anything. People in general just need to shut up more and instead spend time learning and listening. Internet and social media have caused a massive denigration in this part of existence.

You mean ostracize? Yes.  We help them by referring to them as retarded, gullible and various other denigrations.

Yes, that is the word that I was looking for. I don't think that your method will work well with many people though. I mean you are right that they are those things, but the question is what is our goal? If it is to educate them and get them to use the right thing, then perhaps insulting them is not the best strategy?  

[BobLawblaw]

What's this I'm reading about people selling corn to buy gold?

Stupid bastards.

[xhomerx10]

~snip

.....but I'm not an economist like ole Jerome.  If I were, I would have recommended a rate cut all the way back to the 3.5% neutral level a loooong time ago.

That's why we have Jerome doing the job rather than uie-pooie.  

No homo.

Stay in your lane.  Your specialties seem to be hats and sure, other various random quasi-useful things like sampling the best places to buy coffee or prognosticating if there are going to be ions (vibrations) in the air or not and/or perhaps identifying various grammar mistakes in these here parts and various other quasi-random thingies.. besides just HODLing dee cornz like a pro.



 

 Sure, tell the inconsequential nobody, with zero influence on the US economy save the occasional venturationings into the promised land for entertainment purposes only, to stay in his lane for voicing its opinion while you stand with a politically appointed lawyer with a poli-sci degree and no formal economics education ruin run your economy_{into the ground}.  I only care because every misstep of the US Fed has a greater effect on the economy of my country than any combination of factors my government could control.  Lowering the interest rate into neutral territory would be a relief not only for the citizens of the US but for the entire free world (and maybe even some of the not-so-free world).