You want to take the same side of the bet as me?
Yeah easy money. I believe we can hit it by November tops
October is seeming like September. Expectation on September was usually dip but majority of this year's was bull until the final moments
I think same Would apply to October. Shaky till we some days to the end.
Short term BTC price dynamics can be so misleading.
We see it so often through the years, including that certain months can be considered ups or downs and then it might start out within conformity of expectations, and other times it might start out opposite of expectations, and it tends to be quite difficult to figure out if the trend is going to continue or if it is going to reverse - meaning that it is a fake out or if it "is real" this time.
It seems better to have some kind of a plan that works for us no matter the short-term direction of the BTC price, rather than allow short-to-medium term price movements and/or even expectations in regards to short-medium to really shake us out of our plan, as we are carrying it out.
I have been wrong so many times in my own thinking, and one of the things that I believe has saved me is that whatevrer adjustments that I make in accordance with what I think might happen, such as selling a bit more or buying a bit more, happens to come out better for me since so many of the times I make relatively minor tweaks that do not really make major changes to my overall biasness in regards to largely hanging onto bitcoin and/or buying more of it whenever there is any meaningful dip, such as any dip greater than 8%.
By the way, over the years, I have increased my spreads and my intervals between buys and sells to contribute to my own feelings of less and less anxiety about the price and even less concern about loss aversion or the balancing of questions regarding if I have enough coins. I think that it takes time to build greater comfort with volatility and comfort with how much bitcoin we have and comfort with whatever techniques we are employing to accumulate bitcoin or to maintain bitcoin or even to sustainably withdraw from bitcoin depending on which stage each of us is in and perhaps how far within each stage that we are in, to the extent that the stages do likely end up overlapping and contributing to confusion within any of us, even if we sometimes will start to feel good about where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going.
@JayJuanGee
Let’s go for 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026 and for 0.001 Bitcoin. It’s just a bit of fun but let’s see who wins. I would happily pay a lot more money than that to see a nice shiny all time high because obviously I’d be making a hell of a lot more money that way
I’m a man of my word and will obviously pay out if I lose the bet but you know that any way
I already lost a bet to JJG so won't go for more. But it will be interesting to see outcome of this bet, as you both are a good match to each other in terms of knowledge and analysis.
May the best one win. Good luck
Maybe I have a bit of a personality problem in my recent attempts to want to bet anyone who I believe is taking a somewhat extreme position... so in that regard, it may well be good to win a bet in both directions, even though with you, even though BTC's price direction became more apparent after the fact, I felt that I needed to have odds because I was not very confident in it happening, even though you were proclaiming something close to 100% odds, including that you were sort of suggesting that I did not even need to put any value on my end, since you were so confident on your end. You likely needed to lose that bet in order to learn a lesson in regards to taking extreme and/or absolute positions.
I think that the odds are fairly highly against LFC winning the bet, yet surely anything can happen, so I cannot really count on winning such bet until it happens.. including that we could end up having several more fakes up to $126,272 without crossing over it.. which might even cause more and more loss of confidence that a new ATH will end up being crossed prior to the end of the 1st quarter of 2026.
Sounds like an interesting bet.
Personally, if i was a betting man (I am not), i would wager on the @JJG side.
Additionally, it would be interesting to see a WO poll with these time and ATH conditions, wouldn't it?
I'm not a betting man either. But this is not a bet -- it's free money for Jay, fueled by LFC's eagerness to sell.
We
will have an ATH by the end of Q1/2026 -- that's my guesstimate.
You are even more bullish than me. Remember you were saying ATH in September and other variations of that? hahahaha.. even writing haikus dedicated to such "artistic" visions.[...]
Well, I guess it depends on the individual, but for me, both coiners and nocoiners should feel good about the current Bitcoin price.
-- Nocoiners should be happy to be able to buy (slightly) lower than earlier.
By definition, no coiners are not buying.. that is why they are called no coiners... For clarification, you might have been referring to low coiners and/or bitcoin skeptics who are still reluctantly buying from time to time, or even referring to the whimpy bitcoin accumulators, who are still likely to get ahead in bitcoin, yet they won't get ahead even close to as much as any coiner who has developed bitcoin conviction, even those low coiners and/or new coiners who are in their early years of bitcoin accumulation.
-- Coiners (esp. WOers) should be ecstatic that the price is at 6 digits and expected to rise significantly in the long term.
For sure, even coiners can become confused and even WOers can become confused.
I don't really put LFC into the "confused" category, even though I would suggest that his ongoing bearish rhetoric likely ends up contributing to confusion and/or adding to confusion, even if he might end up being correct. And, sure he has a right to say what he says, since surely we don't all need to agree in these here parts, and sometimes we do need guys like LFC who are willing to say what he really thinks (feels) even if it is unpopular with some of us... so yeah, the fact that he says it and even is willing to bet upon it, shows a decent amount of conviction regarding what he is saying and he is not merely saying it, just to say it or to be unnecessarily provocative.
To whine about spot price not constantly rising, or not peaking at a specific pipe-dream value that one has put in their head, does not make much sense to me, sorry...
It does come off as a wee bit crazy and even a demonstration that someone might not be managing his position very well, since if a person really so easily has those kinds of sentiments, then he likely had been gambling with his bitcoin holdings rather than investing and allowing of the BTC price to go in either direction, especially since we have seen these various extreme happenings (and flushing out of coiners) so many times in bitcoin's history, so the mere fact that bitcoin does not seem to b doing what we expect it to do, might either be that we do not understand it very well (which surely I am willing to admit) or that we might be unrealistic in our own betting in one direction.
We know that there are even expressions in regards to both investors and traders to describe the phenomena that markets can stay irrational way longer than any of us can remain solvent.. so in that regard, each of us should be hedging various aspects of our own beliefs in order to attempt to better prepare ourselves both financially and psychologically, even if there might be times in which our convictions and/or our base case contains very strong probabilities/possibilities of playing out, of course, from our perspective and weighing of the evidence of the matter.
Not being salty, just trying to make you guys realize and appreciate how lucky you are.
There may well be some of us, who ONLY got as far as we got in bitcoin based on a whole hell-of-a-lot of luck - meaning that we might not even have any clue about what is bitcoin or why it's number had been going up, yet at the same time, we ended up putting a decent amount of investment into it, and then it largely grew beyond expectation to contribute to our ending up getting emotional about an investment that we only coincidentally fell into and circumstances contributed to our ongoing continuance in HODLing it.
I am not even necessarily talking about bitcoin, since many of us likely recall the story of the supposed OG who decided to sell 80k worth of bitcoin in order to supposedly engage in estate planning, which hardly makes any sense - except in a scenario where the guy had already died or is getting close to dying, so he is worried about the logistics in trying to pass down 80k bitcoin... so sometimes there can be some behind the scenes dynamics that are motivating guys to go down paths that hardly make any sense to some of us, and we might even speculate that they are failing/refusing to account for
their 9 individual factors, even though we happen to just not know enough about how they are weighing certain ones of their 9 individual factors, and perhaps what they are doing ends up making sense rather than being the mere appearance that seems to support that they were being too emotional in their reactions and/or their articulation of how they see the bitcoin situation (including how much emphasis they seem to be giving to one of the 9 individual factors related to their own assessment of bitcoin prices as compared to other (non-bitcoin) places that they could put their time, energies and/or value).
To whine about spot price not constantly rising, or not peaking at a specific pipe-dream value that one has put in their head, does not make much sense to me, sorry...
Not being salty, just trying to make you guys realize and appreciate how lucky you are.
I can be lucky and cry in my corner at the same time
It's what comes with "fear: 100%" and "greed: 100%"
That is true.
Sometimes we are greatly contradictory people and we might even know that we are doing it, but we can't (or don't want to) stop ourselves from doing it. I have surely done those kinds of things plenty of times in my life, and then later (perhaps several years later) I look back and I assess my earlier self as a bit of a dumbass for having had done the thing that I had done...
And, it is not like I have to reach back in ancient history to identify situations that I had engaged in dumb and/or contradictory behaviors... and sometimes, even as I am engaged in the dumb/contradictory behavior, I can see that I am doing it, yet I am unwilling to change what I am doing - like I already committed to doing it, and I am not going to stop, even though while in the midst of doing it, I recognize the futility of my own circumstances.
Maybe an example might be helpful. Just the other day, I was in a location in which I had several items that were being unloaded from the car, and there were two of us unloading the car. We were parked in a bit of a "no parking" location so there was a bit of urgency, and so the other person was unpacking the items inside and I was bringing the items in, yet we were using 4 refillable bags that were durable.. .but we had the equivalent of 10 bags in the car, so we could not get all of the stuff in within one or two trips.
After several trips in which I would come in with another one of the 4 bags, then I would see that none of the other three had been unpacked, I would somewhat violently unpack one of the filled 4 bags so that i could use it to get more items from the car. After doing that several times, I could not resist to engage in a bit of an outburst to more or less call the other person a negative name and even to exaggerate the name in order to make my point, and I even knew that I did not need to call the name to make my point and I even realized that my calling the name was going to likely have negative blow back and that it was not really worth it or even necessary for me to do it, yet I called the name and engaged in the exaggerated behavior anyhow.
Poll
