Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Finestream]

This seems to be a good news, SCAM BUSTED!

127k BITCOINS

127,000 Bitcoin from Chen's accounts, worth $15 billion at the time - much of it received from unsuspecting American victims.

Cyber fraud investigator Erin West told the I-Team, "If you can grab 15 billion of this, then how much has gone through that man's wallet? How much has he stolen? If we were able to take back 15 billion."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG -    gm to our resident sentiment interrogator

OK, I did the math and I sold 4.70% at $121,200 to be precise. That wasn’t a panic sell, I planned to sell some around $125,000 but had a conversation with El Duderino_ one evening and he had recently sold some so I thought to take some pressure off the table so I could stop staring at charts 100 times a day. So I pulled the trigger and now have six years of living expenses (probably more than most people earn in over 10 years). I retired in 2021 in my thirties and am living on my Bitcoin. I have enough to take me to the death bed quite comfortably (I think). But I have to be honest with you, I did shave another couple of percent off at $92,000 earlier in the year when all that tariff BS was going on.

My anxiety around price comes from the fact that I had planned to sell quite a bit more this year, I wanted to pull out $3,000,000 to diversify into real estate and also my Mrs wanted a bigger home. We actually bought our current home without a mortgage in 2022 after the 2021 bull run. No regrets there, although it was 15 Bitcoin and it is now worth 8 Bitcoin I am fine in this house but you know what women are like. But I will not sell any Bitcoin below $125,000 - $130,000 now. I just can not justify selling here.

I’ve calmed down a little bit now, if the top is in then it’s in, nothing we can do about it. I am positioned well either way but am disappointed if the cycle is finito. If we can build some support at $107,000 and stocks hold up well then we could be in business towards the end of the year because Powell is due to cut rates and Trump will TACO on China tariffs so that could calm markets.

Regarding a bet I am not 100% confident the cycle is over but I made a commitment so let’s say for 100,000 satoshis -

No more ATHs before the end of Q1 2026. If we hit a new ATH before end of Q1 2026 I pay you 100,000 sats. If we don’t you pay me 100,000 sats.
Deal?

Anybody else reading, in the words of DJT, ’Thank you for your attention to this matter’

Congrats...it is different depending on whether you retired or not.
I am older, but still work..a creature of habit, perhaps, but it helps with the cash flow.

My Mrs increased our yearly spending almost 2x in the last couple of years (due to btc appreciation, of course), so I feel the pinch to sell sometimes, but I have other assets to sell-money market interest goes first, then money market itself, then minor "c-o", then stocks.

I like the idea of incrementally increasing spending (implicitly your standard of living), even though 2x does seem like a lot in a couple of years, even though cost of living in itself due to debasement may have gone up 20% in nominal terms, just to stay in the ballpark of the same place, depending on the kinds of ways that you tend to spend your money.

Oh, yeah, even if we might be drawing upon our bitcoin, we might also be drawing from a variety of other possible income sources, since it does not necessarily make sense to tap too much into the best asset known to mankind, especially if there are various other options.

Even with myself, if I might be tapping into some of my bitcoin from time to time, I don't necessarily do a complete calculating, I just get into a kind of pattern to "take a little from here and a little from there" and keep a bit of a balance, even though there might be some more profitable ways to do it.. but I don't want to spend too much time on it... Sometimes I will just merely reduce in various assets in proportion to what I own in each of them.. while maybe leaving a bit of a priority to bitcoin in terms of trying to draw the least to it, even though surely I know that bitcoin has its short term ups and downs, but I am not really too much trying to play the short term ups and downs since I somewhat presume it is going to be the best one in the longer term, such as 4-10 years or more into the future, even if in the short term it might take some plummeting.

Even though I understand the idea of maybe ranking the order in which you draw from certain funds (to the extent that you might not want to do a strict percentage of each), I don't what a "minor 'c-o' " is.  

By the way, in regards to the order that you draw,  you likely would be spending from the ones that are least valuable first, even though you could have each of them follow their own formulas... so for example, with various traditional assets, the formula would be up to 4% per year.. but if you already know that some have higher or lower levels of return, then you might want to exhaust those first... and even with my own formula in regards to treating the bitcoin, i use 10% of the 200-WMA value in regards to the maximum amount that I would authorize myself to withdraw, yet so far, I have never gotten to the point of using the whole bitcoin quantity as the formula, so usually it would be some subset, as I used the two accounts with 21 coins as the examples in 2022 in my sustainable withdrawal thread (my post is November 2023 - but with a year's of back data)... but then now those two accounts could have been drawn down quite a bit and still be authorized to spend way more than 7% increases per year... their withdrawal amounts have gone up something like 3x.

You can even see BTC's price appreciation dynamic within the tool.  If a person had started out with 21 coins in September 2022, and if he would have had spent 10% of the 200-WMA value, he would have had started out with an ability to draw nearly a $49k per year income from that quantity of coins that would have had a then 200-WMA value of about $490k, and by now, he would have had depleted his coins down to about 16 BTC, so over the past 3-ish years, he would have had spent 5 BTC and drew an income of $228k from that BTC over those nearly 3 years, and right now his remaining 16 BTC would have a 200-WMA value of about $864k, which would justify annual income of about $86.5k.  So largely his income level would have had doubled in the last three years, even though he had ongoingly been drawing upon the value at the 200-WMA valued amount and at 10%.per year of whatever would have had been the 200-WMA amount as it would have continued to just move slowly upward at a fairly steady rate over the past 3-ish years.  

I guess that I am trying to carry btc to the next gen, but I am flexible.
When short term interest rates would be at 3-3.5%, maybe I would consider a loan against btc...currently you can find it at 9.99% APR...too high, still.
I would definitely get a loan against some btc with a legit company if the interest would be, say, 5% or maybe even 6%.
EDIT: forgot to add...maybe a loan against 5% of btc or something like this.

You are thinking similar to me... The rate would need to be quite a bit below 10% and it would have to be with a legitimate company/organization (which can be deceptive), and I would only use a small portion of my total stash to test out the product.. Sure something in the 5% to 10% of the stash would not be putting too much at stake, even though I might not even need or want to dedicate up to 10% of the stash for that, so yeah, 5% would be more than adequate to see how it works and if it fits into my cashflow management kinds of options.

dec 2024 106.7k
oct 2025 107.1k

looks pretty fucking sideways to me.

If you don't add context then you can't draw any valuable conclusions from this. Don't cherry pick data. If you want to do a fair yearly comparison you have to pick the same day from October. So where were we then?

October 18 2024 68.4k
October 19 2025 107.1k

Looks pretty fucking bullish to me!

Yeah..  Phil's been going on and on about the flat idea.  It's almost like he wants to get credit for predicting it, yet even as you suggest, there's been a lot going on, so merely picking out a couple of dates that help to tell a bit of a spin, and then maybe even to whine about it (in this case he is praising it), just comes off as being mostly sparse in objectivity.

There might not be any reason for picking a year either, even though surely we had spent quite a bit of time between March and October 2024 in a mostly $50k to $70k range, so there could be some meaning in picking that range, since it also was the range of our two high points in 2021, too.

I am sure many of us don't really buy the flat spin.  It just does not come off as a fair and/or representative characterization in regards to where we have been in the past 10-ish months. Even though technically there is some correctness that at some point in December 2024 the price was at a place very similar as today.

What's this I'm reading about people selling corn to buy gold?

Stupid bastards.

The quest for gold is turning into a major disaster. There have been influx of foreigners in most remote villages of the northern part of my country mostly Chinese and they arm so bandits that protect them while they continue to mine gold and rare earth metals. Our government are not doing anything because some of the top politicians and military heads are benefitting from those illegal mining that is widespread now. There even a black market in Dubai for gold from my country which were mined illegally. The most painful part is that villagers are being killed in large numbers and their homes taken over by illegal mining activities.

Another way that bitcoin is superior - in terms of the lack of a fixed supply with gold.. so if the gold price goes up, the supply can also go up, including additional ingenuity in digging more of it up and/or various other ways of finding it or scrounging it up - and of course, incentivized by the price going up and potential negative ramifications, as you mentioned, in the real world..

if the top is in then it’s in, nothing we can do about it.

That is true.. even though I still think that the odds are less than 50% that the top is in... I am not sure if I am able to articulate much more specifics than less than 50%.. I am not so sure that it would be 60%, so from my own calculation it is somewhere in the 50% range but less than 60% that the top is not in.

For reference here are the past cycle top dates:

November 9 2021
December 15 2017
November 29 / December 3 2013

There is a fair amount of variance here and with only 3 cycles behind us definitely not enough data.

Even though there might be some patterns in terms of the calendar years, I doubt that there is any meaningful reason that bitcoin has to reach its high within this calendar year, which is part of the reason that I chose to make sure that the deadline for the bet goes into the first quarter of 2026, and yeah, LFC is a bit more of a strict-interpreter of the 4-year fractal theory falling in like with a schedule.. and sure, it is possible that he might end up being correct, yet I did not want to be locked into that framework, including in terms of the bet that we seem to have had agreed to.

Of course, as I mentioned, if we go down close to $80k in the coming weeks or even before the end of November.. I will start to get worried.  I probably would not be worried about losing the bet merely if we were to go below $100k for a few days in the coming week or two.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

As an investment, gold is known for having its stable value, in times of crisis, a refuge for investors looking for stability, so the gold asset is not known for being volatile, but for being protected from the effects of inflation, which personally I don't see this quality much, because its value is based on papers that represent a certain pre-existing amount, that is not updated at the same speed as new sources of the resource are found. that is, a deception of the rulers a little better elaborated, since it is no longer allowed for a person to have any undeclared quantity with him, if she does, she is considered a criminal; And if it has and is declared, in times of crisis, the government can confiscate it, and if it is stolen by someone other than the government, the government that protects you, will not go after to recover your gold, much less reimburse you, or for the failure of its promised security by charging you taxes on what is yours!. They can enter your property with a metal detector, and find and confiscate, but they are not thieves, it is only for your protection!
... I haven't seen a bitcoin secret key detector yet, of course, it depends on the storage method... You can divide the key into three and crimp it into three iron plates for example, and only you know the sequence,.. leaving the ones exposed on the wall well disguised in various styles and designs carved in the iron, and the characters as a signature for example.... Anyone from the government who enters your property, will find gold but they will not give a damn about decorations nailed to the wall..

Dane Winginton :
“Billionaires are preparing themselves for Doomsday. Should we be worried?” (BBC). “Are Tech Billionaires Really Preparing for the End Of The World?” (NewsBreak). “Earth’s life support is failing. Will we act?” (Eco-Business). “As Gold Hits New Record, Some See Warning Signs of Civilizational Collapse” (Newsweek). How many are still clinging to the delusion that shiny metals will save them from what is unfolding?

_In a world where a country does not follow the order of the majority, it is considered an enemy, regardless of its governor or a king, a president or a dictator, it is a unipolar world with no room for divergence.
_______________________________...

-If sometimes they sell Bitcoin to buy gold, also sometimes they sell gold to buy Bitcoin.
_But what is the logic?
-If gold is considered stable, and now seems to have found a top at the close of the week last Friday, perhaps it is time to jump to something safe and volatile that has depreciated its value well in the last two weeks,...?   .

_________________
...The opening of the month of October was 114079 coming from 109 before and then going to 126 and then went through the opening in the third week and was below it more than 8k and now stabilizing at 107k with Saturday's closing in buy after 4 days of selling.(PinBar)
I expect the October close to be close to its opening value, and we have a little over a week to go until the month close, then we will have an updownuptober month...
-instead, an blacktober..by blackrocks..
 I expect a blue Monday with a little volatility, on the contrary, we will close in Downtober and the chances of having a new high, drop a lot, but don't drop so much if don't lose 100k,
if  lose 100k before the end of the year, we won't have a new high in November, when 100k will become a strong resistance if it happens.

On the daily chart the price is 3k below the 180-day average and the 50-day average is still pointing above 114k


While on the hourly chart, today the price, with many blue-crabs, is back above the 50-hour average since losing it at 114 on Tuesday 14 October 2025

Every October, the Orionid Meteor Shower reminds us of our deep connection to space. These meteors are fragments from Halley’s Comet, entering Earth’s atmosphere at over 60 kilometers per second and leaving long, glowing trails in their wake. When you look up, you’re literally seeing pieces of a comet that last visited our skies decades ago.
This year’s peak  October 21–22, 2025  promises a vibrant display, with up to 20 meteors per hour glowing in shades of green, orange, and blue. The best view comes after midnight, far from city lights, with your gaze turned toward the constellation Orion. No telescope needed  just patience and dark skies. (....)Sources/Credits: NASA, ESA, International Meteor Organization, National Geographic

Mark your calendars for October 21, 2025 — a night that could go down in history!

#Edited-out because of dubious and misinformation by AIs that are spreading false information!! And the most wrong thing is me who copies and pastes this shit that I didn't read carefully!!

(Also, the above quote is right, but it is also unreliable.)

 {(still, this link is reliable and the information is correct, but not related to my purpose here)> Read more:
ASTRONOMY LOVERS

My purpose here was to relate my analysis to the date of the atronomic events which would probably coincide with my idea that by the 21st the price of Bitcoin would try to reach at least the value of the opening price  of October, which at the moment does not seem to be materializing, but we still have a day.

And then, by the 'lucky I have, is that I knew and still know what I wanted to mention here, and so I will do. But first, I'll leave here the link to the correction made by A friend, which I thank you very much!   >>>  

(~)

   "3I/ATLAS will come closest to the Sun on 29 October 2025, at a distance of 1.36 AU (203 million km; 126 million mi) from the Sun, which is between the orbits of Earth and Mars. The comet appears to have originated from either the Milky Way's thin disk or thick disk; if 3I/ATLAS originated from the thick disk, the comet could be at least 7 billion years old—older than the Solar System".
the name is>  ''Designations: MPC designation> C/2025 N1 ; Alternative designation> A11pl3Z'', and you can check more here> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3I/ATLAS   .

-''Asteroids and comets can have all sorts of orbits, but they all still circumnavigate the Sun. This object, though, was moving too rapidly and in a very elongated manner, which indicated it “is not bound to the Sun's gravity and will never pass through our solar system again,” says Greenstreet.''>>> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/new-interstellar-object-comet-3i-atlas

-''One thing is clear: It’s not an alien spaceship
There have been some (irresponsible) rumblings online speculating whether 3I/ATLAS may be an alien spacecraft scouting out our solar system. “There is a lot that’s still an open question,” says Thomas. “But I can safely say no, it’s not that.”

There is zero evidence suggesting it’s anything other than a ball of vaporizing ice. “If it is an alien spaceship, it’s done a really good job disguising it as a comet,” says Cordiner.  ''

-
 >> https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/interstellar-comet-3iatlas-tail-coma-aliens


 

[JayJuanGee]

Sounds like an interesting bet.
Personally, if i was a betting man (I am not), i would wager on the @JJG side.

Additionally, it would be interesting to see a WO poll with these time and ATH conditions, wouldn't it?

I'm not a betting man either. But this is not a bet -- it's free money for Jay, fueled by LFC's eagerness to sell.

We will have an ATH by the end of Q1/2026 -- that's my guesstimate.

You are even more bullish than me.  Remember you were saying ATH in September and other variations of that?  hahahaha.. even writing haikus dedicated to such "artistic" visions.

Sounds like an interesting bet.
Personally, if i was a betting man (I am not), i would wager on the @JJG side.

Additionally, it would be interesting to see a WO poll with these time and ATH conditions, wouldn't it?

I'm not a betting man either. But this is not a bet -- it's free money for Jay, fueled by LFC's eagerness to sell.

We will have an ATH by the end of Q1/2026 -- that's my guesstimate.

I don't know if disagreeing with you will sound like fud but I don't see what will create the pump just yet. Even the little rise we are seeing is sluggish and without volume signally serious reluctance in the market for upward move. Before the middle of next month, it will become obvious what the fate of the market will be. But I have strong feeling that @LFC_Bitcoin will win the bet if it is taken. Maybe the part of me that wants more cheap coins is the one typing and not the optimistic part.

There is nothing wrong with newer folks to bitcoin to be rooting for and hoping for BTC prices to go down, yet part of the problem in expecting down is that we have been through these kinds of periods previously with bitcoin, and the price will suddenly end up going up rather than down.

Sure, it is never guaranteed to go up.. and so on a personal financial situation, I hardly give that many shits if it does not go up, while at the same time, it seems crazy as fuck that the BTC price does not go up even while various governments, financial institutions and even status quo rich are seeming to be getting on board the bitcoin train.. ..

In other words, it seems to me that you obuoma are trying to attribute too many characteristics onto bitcoin as if it were a mature asset class or if it were the same as any other asset class, when it is not even close to the same.  We have never had an asset like bitcoin, so expecting it to behave within some kind of an expected pattern of limitations (as if it were a mature asset class) may well be expecting too much from dee cornz.

@JayJuanGee
Let’s go for 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026 and for 0.001 Bitcoin. It’s just a bit of fun but let’s see who wins. I would happily pay a lot more money than that to see a nice shiny all time high because obviously I’d be making a hell of a lot more money that way

I’m a man of my word and will obviously pay out if I lose the bet but you know that any way

Price seems to be stabilising here but let’s see what happens. I will be so happy if this is some disgusting dip before Bitcoin starts to melt faces. Maybe lots of four year cycle, Q4 believers have been selling some because they think the top is in and it’s stunting us at the moment. We’ll know soon, I think next week will tell us a bit more.

The next week is critical. ^tm.  It seem that our bet is officially "on"

.. confirmed.

I have no problem paying out the 0.001 BTC (100k satoshis either if such ATH to bet higher than $126,272 on bitstamp does not get hit before the strike of midnight advancing us to April 1, 2026.

I’d feel a lot more confident if we even put in a few green 1D candles.

That would make it too easy.

Any shake out is more effective when it has convincing characteristics.. that give us reasons to believe the world is ending... and maybe they have to get worse to make them convincing?

Remember the 50% draw down in the midst of the 2021 price run?  Sure we did not get much of a price run in the second half of 2021, even though we were still able to largely recover from that 50% correction before getting the drawn out and more extensive correction of 2023.

There are three things that if rectified quickly, I think could reignite this bull run -

• Powell cuts rates as expected in a couple of weeks
• Trump TACO on the November 1st China tariff deadline
• Government Shutdown ends soon

I pray to Satoshi that things go better for us soon.

These seem rectifiable... We have been through worse situations, no?  There is a bit of an internal war in bitcoin, too.

Deal?

Anybody else reading, in the words of DJT, ’Thank you for your attention to this matter’

Deal if you would let me. I'm quite interested

You want to take the same side of the bet as me?

There might be some willing participants.   We had obuoma a few posts back who said that he thinks that LFC has the better odds of winning the bet.  It is not like everyone is going to see our current BTC price actions in the same way.

By the way. I am not even sure about what we are talking about anymore since we seem to even be agreeing and disagreeing in ways that contradict some of our earlier statements.

Soo the conclusion is, number go up soon?  

Sometimes these correction periods might take a week or two or even longer to sort themselves out.

It does help that we got a bit of a bounce off of $103,530 from two days ago, yet even decent bounces will not necessarily put us back on the UPpity path if some of the bearwhales might be able to identify that there are more weak hands that they might be able to shake out of their position by making another meaningful downity push.

[WatChe]

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.
This guy deserves a forum award.

He must be respected for the hard work he do to reply folks here.

Indeed.

Maybe this time we should institute JJG Appreciation Saturdays? Maybe?

Even I am starting to feel that this is a bit much.

This is nothing when compared with your services for the folks here.

[Ambatman]

You want to take the same side of the bet as me?

Yeah easy money. I believe we can hit it by November tops
October is seeming like September. Expectation on September was usually dip but majority of this year's was bull until the final moments
I think same Would apply to October. Shaky till we some days to the end.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

@JayJuanGee

Let’s go for 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026 and for 0.001 Bitcoin. It’s just a bit of fun but let’s see who wins. I would happily pay a lot more money than that to see a nice shiny all time high because obviously I’d be making a hell of a lot more money that way

I’m a man of my word and will obviously pay out if I lose the bet but you know that any way

I already lost a bet to JJG so won't go for more. But it will be interesting to see outcome of this bet, as you both are a good match to each other in terms of knowledge and analysis.

May the best one win. Good luck

 

[LoyceV]

There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet .. unless it never arrived in their wallet .

Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.

This is not the correct comparison. Wrapped Bitcoin are not fake Bitcoin as long as they are backed by locked in Bitcoin and always redeemable.

"Wrapped" Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold: controlled by someone else, and you can't even check if it exists. And if you lose the keys, the creator of those "wrapped" coins gets richer instead of this:

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone.

Sounds good, except that I am pretty sure you can verify it but you have to trust BitGo that they do own it. Here is a list of addresses. https://wbtc.network/transparency. I don't think there is a decentralized way of proving this. Or do we consider BitGo now an untrustworthy company?

"Be your own bank" and "Verify, don't trust" means I don't have to care whether or not "BitGo" is untrustworthy. I can afford not to care, as I have nothing to do with them.

You or we may not like those products but they have their reasons for existing otherwise why would people put 100k BTC into this?

That's a very weak argument. Greed, FOMO and ignorance have made people throw money at shitcoins, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, tokens and whatever shit they came up with for over a decade now. Some people got rich out of it, many people lost their Bitcoins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Sounds like an interesting bet.
Personally, if i was a betting man (I am not), i would wager on the @JJG side.

Additionally, it would be interesting to see a WO poll with these time and ATH conditions, wouldn't it?

I'm not a betting man either. But this is not a bet -- it's free money for Jay, fueled by LFC's eagerness to sell.

We will have an ATH by the end of Q1/2026 -- that's my guesstimate.

You are even more bullish than me.  Remember you were saying ATH in September and other variations of that?  hahahaha.. even writing haikus dedicated to such "artistic" visions.

[...]

Well, I guess it depends on the individual, but for me, both coiners and nocoiners low coiners should feel good about the current Bitcoin price.

-- Nocoiners Low coiners should be happy to be able to buy (slightly) lower than earlier.
-- Coiners (esp. WOers) should be ecstatic that the price is at 6 digits and expected to rise significantly in the long term.

To whine about spot price not constantly rising, or not peaking at a specific pipe-dream value that one has put in their head, does not make much sense to me, sorry...

Not being salty, just trying to make you guys realize and appreciate how lucky you are.


Edit: replaced nocoiners with low coiners. Thanks Jay, you're right, nocoiners never buy!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LoyceV]

To whine about spot price not constantly rising, or not peaking at a specific pipe-dream value that one has put in their head, does not make much sense to me, sorry...

Not being salty, just trying to make you guys realize and appreciate how lucky you are.

I can be lucky and cry in my corner at the same time It's what comes with "fear: 100%" and "greed: 100%"

[fillippone]

What's this I'm reading about people selling corn to buy gold?

Stupid bastards.

Sad fucks confirmed.

Gold is going north only for one reason:



China.

China is buying Gold, transitioning out of Treasuries.
Debasement trade for now is only a narrative: never saw a debasement trading without steepening (Long end Yields going up massively).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com