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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26952857 times)
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November 22, 2025, 04:43:11 AM


https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1991981569553375669/photo/1
ERUPTION in volume for the bitcoin ETFs.. all time record set today with $11.5b as a group. $IBIT was $8b of that, which was all time record for it. Wild but also normal- whenever an ETF or category is 'going through it' volume is elevated. ETFs are liq release valves.

Remember 2014, 2015 and 2016 how much so many folks were skeptical regarding how the bitcoin price was being established because there was a sense that the Chinese exchanges were faking their trade volume.

Now, perhaps this is part of the objective of the various bitcoin spot ETF advocates - to be able to be the ones who are establishing "the official" bitcoin price by trading fake products?.. .. or at least derivative products..

Now it would be a good opportunity to take gold profits and buy Bitcoin, right? Wink (Seriously.)
Btc broke the 93k region few days ago and it's heading straight to the 85k support. Which simply means more dip. You can decide to bag now or still wait a little longer to bag more. The market looks boring and most people lose interest that's where the market is at right now.
Similar to you, Pjcr7, I am just bored to death with this current BTC (and related) market.

There is like nothing happening.  Right?

I will admit that currently there seems to be enough momentum to reach $85k, especially since we have already experienced $85,912 within the past 7.5-ish hours... yet sure, there could be enough momentum (perhaps?) to also reach $85k or sub $85k.  Perhaps ? Perhaps?  Isn't that boring?
It's still less than 24hrs after this and BTC is now less than 85k, my prediction hits right  Huh

Why would (or should) anyone who is in bitcoin for the long term give any shits about your prediction, to the extent it matters, and to the extent that you believe (perhaps a fantasy?) that you are able to see into the future.  You must be really rich when you have those abilities, right?  Or is that part of the package that you would like to sell?

Some people sold their bags right before the breakout, personally I don't think BTC would have been this dip,

That sounds retarded to be selling at these prices - unless they were selling for some other reason, such as just needing the coins and they could not wait or they had not sold any in the past 6 months or so..

I would think that many guys who are mostly active in this thread get into bitcoin to invest and not trade.. so depending where they are at in their BTC accumulation journey, it would seem that these are price territories to either be buying or if a guy ran out of money and/or does not want to buy, then to at least just HODL through the situation to see what is happening next...

I mean 126k to 84k+ as of now in just few weeks that's because major institutions are involved on it right now and the are rewriting the pattern of crypto

We are not talking about crypto or shitcoins in this thread, except for a few retards don't seem to know the difference between bitcoin and derivative products.

You think that major institutions are in charge of bitcoin and its price movements now?

unlike previously when retailed Investor dominated the market.

I suppose part of the reason that some folks consider various institutions as a threat to the extent that they are fucking around with paper bitcoin products, so yeah it could be difficult to do anything about them, yet they still might end up getting their lil selfies into trouble if they are selling bitcoin that they don't have because at some point they likely would need to buy them back.. but yeah, sure, bitcoin is being manipulated and attempted to be manipulated... What else is new? besides the players changing?

On an individual level, how are you dealing with it?   just sit back and proclaim that it is fate?  it is out of our hands?

I will agree that I don't really do much of anything except for buy when the price goes down and sell when it goes up.. so how am I going to be negatively affected by my behaviors besides witnessing that there seem to be attempts to cause it to be more and more difficult for bitcoin to be transacted individually and privately, even though it seems that bitcoin holders still can transact privately and without anyone stopping them, as long as they hold the actual bitcoin.

The wrong side of these institutions is that they will keep on adjusting and manipulating the market untill they themselves are fully positioned.

Sure they manipulate, and they try to manipulate as much as they can. Do you think that you are saying anything original?  Do you think that they are manipulating in order to kill the golden goose? or do you think that some institutions, governments and/or status quo rich folks are recognizing ways that they can personally benefit from getting involved in bitcoin, besides the control element.  You may well recognize and appreciate that merely holding more coins does not necessarily give more control over bitcoin the network, right?

Here's the advantage of this institution now, once they are satisfied and well positioned, then comes the smiley faces because market capitalisation will surge which will make BTC to breakout and hit another ATH.

So you are saying down before up?  You think that it is that simple?

This is the time to position yourselves and not time to sell your bags, it might seem tiring but hold on.

Many guys here have already been positioning themselves for years.

Srue there are also newbies to bitcoin who have to spend time accumulating bitcoin.  You have ONLY been on the forum for slightly more than a year, so you might be the one who needs to follow your own advice to the extent that you have been accumulating bitcoin in the past year and likely continuing to accumulate bitcoin.

It can take a long time to really establish a meaningful stake in bitcoin, and personally, I think that it would have had been difficult for anyone accumulating bitcoin since late 2023 and thereafter to really establish a meaningful bitcoin stake. 

Of course, guys who came into bitcoin priior to 2024 would have had had an advantage, and even guys ewho established their position prior to 2021 would have had an advantage.

Yet, we cannot turn back the clock, so I don't disagree with your asssertion that newbies (such as anyone in bitcoin less than a whole cycle (4 years) are likely still in need to establish their bitcoin position (whether they know it or not). 

Even though there are some guys on the forum who don't really know the difference between investing and trading, so they get distracted into trading and/or distracted into shitcoins, yet at the same time, there are a decent number of forum members who recognize that there is a need to accumulate bitcoin and to establish a position.   It can be difficult to determine for someone else how much of a position they should establish in bitcoin, even though I consider using the current income as a starting point can be helpful in determining whether they want to live at the same standard of living that they are accustomed or perhaps some multiple above their current standard of living - so then they might frame their bitcoin accumulation goal in light of either their current standard of living or some multiple of that current standard of living.


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Well, life is getting better. Smiley The market stopped falling... temporarily. And even recovered slightly.

I wonder how low bitcoin can go down? $70k? Lower? Well, that's unlikely. But I have a feeling the crypto market could still recover to $100k (or so). We're unlikely to see new ATH levels, but a rebound is possible. Is what's happening now just a shakeout of weak hands? Maybe so

In any case, it's an interesting spectacle to watch the current panic. Who here is scared by what's happening? Smiley And who is determined to buy at a discount?

Almost always I have found it scary when the BTC price is dropping, especially when it gets to more than a 30% drop.  I am not considering this time to be worse than previous times, even though it is still scary.

My buy orders go down to just below $35k, yet I really don't see why we would get even close to those kinds of prices, and even though i am starting to consider that $70k and/or sub $70k is possible, I still wonder why there is any need to go below the April 2025 low of $74,434... so yeah, it kind of sucks, and my buy orders have current increments of every $3k, yet if we go below $70k, then they are every $2k... I prefer no more down.  I have had enough down, yet we know that in bitcoin extremes happen, and sometimes the price won't reverse without some kind of an extreme... not that such extreme is necessary... but sometimes we will have some kind of an extreme before the price reverses and resumes up. 

I don't get excited to buy at a discount.
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November 22, 2025, 04:56:11 AM
Merited by asUHWEceyc (1)

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?
If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

Force the coins into the market and into the hands of those that print fiat?
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November 22, 2025, 05:01:13 AM


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November 22, 2025, 05:40:55 AM

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?
If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

Force the coins into the market and into the hands of those that print fiat?

It is what it is I guess if Micro Strategy and others are forced to sell by Stock Market if Bitcoin/Crypto Assets are keeping the Companie(s) afloat...ie they become

a 'fund' and off the stock market?

What do you all think? What is the 'tipping' point, if anyone knows offhand, on Mirco Strategy's price on BTC to have this happen?

https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/32666150245826
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November 22, 2025, 05:52:53 AM

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?
If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

Force the coins into the market and into the hands of those that print fiat?

It is what it is I guess if Micro Strategy and others are forced to sell by Stock Market if Bitcoin/Crypto Assets are keeping the Companie(s) afloat...ie they become

a 'fund' and off the stock market?

What do you all think? What is the 'tipping' point, if anyone knows offhand, on Mirco Strategy's price on BTC to have this happen?

https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/32666150245826

That bluefin dude has an easily contestable opinion.

Example: Berkshire consists of many stock positions plus cash plus some businesses owned outright.
I am pretty sure that their value of stocks+cash is more than 50% of the company value.
So..you can hold >50% unrelated stocks you are a company, but if you hold >50% bitcoin, you are a fund?
The 50% number is arbitrary too.

It might happen, but then i hope MSaylor sues MSCI for a few tens of billions...and would likely win.

EDIT: that said, personally, I would have preferred MS not to invest 100% of the recently raised 835 mil instantly into btc.
I know that this is his modus operandi, but some cash reserve never hurt anyone.
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November 22, 2025, 06:01:15 AM


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November 22, 2025, 08:07:53 AM
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Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.



It looks like your node is running quite well. I got fed up after a series of hardware issues and basically shut them down but recently spun back up one of my old nodes.

Happy to see back. You and some others (you know who you are) here on the WO made me start my LN node 3 years ago.

The activity on the LN has definitely increased lately. As shown in the picture above, I've routed about 15 btc the past week with a profit of 735k sats.

If you need some inbound liquidity, please let me know.
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November 22, 2025, 08:24:27 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5), El duderino_ (5), LFC_Bitcoin (4), Biodom (1), wachtwoord (1), VB1001 (1), Krubster (1)

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.

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November 22, 2025, 08:57:51 AM
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Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.



It looks like your node is running quite well. I got fed up after a series of hardware issues and basically shut them down but recently spun back up one of my old nodes.

Happy to see back. You and some others (you know who you are) here on the WO made me start my LN node 3 years ago.

The activity on the LN has definitely increased lately. As shown in the picture above, I've routed about 15 btc the past week with a profit of 735k sats.

If you need some inbound liquidity, please let me know.

I prob have more inbound than I need, lol.  Not balanced... More outbound.  I want to say link up! But Meh... it would be a weak use of your Sats I think... Unless I am connected to several big nodes you are not, which I doubt.  Here is the node:

02f859be038ab79284966331036ed7176aad77e2796fe3964fdadcfbfda528bc12

I think it has a whole 14 channels now.  But it works SUPER well now.  I am on LND with this one.  I preferred CL before.  But I am impressed with how well this is running right now.

I spun this back up with a small selection of good channels.  It is great for sending (and I THINK receiving) payments.  And even though my strategy for this one is really personal use.  So making and receiving payments.  However,  I have been seeing WAY more routing than generally I did, even with 5x more channels in the past...  11/21 I did over 700 routing events. 

Anyway.  I am glad to have been an inspiration for your success even if I have floundered myself. Wink
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November 22, 2025, 11:01:14 AM


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November 22, 2025, 11:53:48 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (2), Hueristic (1), Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), Paashaas (1), VB1001 (1), promise444c5 (1), Krubster (1)

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

In some sense, you seem to be referring to an aspect of opportunity costs, since sometimes the "what ifs" and the "could of" "should of" become difficult to quantify - so then with bitcoin over the years we have not ONLY accumulated and compounded value, there have also been a lot of ups and downs along the way that tempted us to sell too much too soon and/or to fail refuse to sufficiently prepare our holdings for UP that may or may not end up coming.

In the case of bitcoin, the UP did end up coming, and those who ongoingly took action to accumulate bitcoin and/or at least not to sell too much too soon, ended up profiting quite stupendously  - even though at the same time, arguably there are some of us who might have had chosen to take decently large profits at various points along the way and perhaps even did not accumulate nearly as many BTC as we could have had accumulated, yet even with some whimpiness and/or some mistakes in our bitcoin accumulation, we still ended up doing quite well with our bitcoin, seemingly largely because we were erroring on the side of accumulating bitcoin and/or holding most of our coin rather than taking large profits.

So for example, even if we might have had chosen to take 10% or 20% of our bitcoin off the table after the price had gone up 10x, it surely may well have had seemed like a lot of money to be taking off of the table, yet at the same time, we largely ended up preserving the overwhelming majority of our holdings, and perhaps we were able to engage in such "shaving off" of profits at a few stages in our bitcoin investment journey, and we still ended up doing fine, even if we could have had more BTC, our shaving off of "profits" was mostly reasonable and tempered in terms of our deciding to hang onto a large majority of our holdings.

Of course, on a personal level, I likely have not shaved off as much profits along the way as other guys, even though I do frequently talk about some of my inclinations to sharve off more profits from time to time... and there are also some guys here who are not so excited about the idea of selling any of our bitcoin holdings, but then it seems that if we want to enter into lending relationships, then we might be putting our bitcoin at risk in those kinds of arrangements, too, even though I understand the advantages of not having to pay taxes on the various sales of the cornz.

i dont worry too much about "what if i bought more" type of scenarios as i got into it (mining btc as a hobby in 2011) not realizing the absolutely stupid amounts of money it would make.

however being married and (then) close to retirement i have played the safe game, as wasting a gift like btc at our age would of been folly. so around 2017ish after the 20k runup and during its slide down i cashed out a not insignificant chunk of my stack at like 15kish and left potential future profit on the table for a solid locked in retirement now (then).

since then, never looked back and its been, is, and im sure will continue to be, a rockin time. the time we gained (retiring early with ease) was well worth it.
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November 22, 2025, 12:11:39 PM

Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.





This is great.
I know running a well-connected LN node is quite an effort and requires constant tuning.
Also, what is the ballpark total liquidity you put in that node?

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November 22, 2025, 12:23:40 PM
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77k maybe 75k  some time soon.

some good dip coming



or not.

be ready


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November 22, 2025, 12:40:53 PM
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Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.



Good some of us thinking with logic and don’t just ride the sentiment koolaid
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