..........[edited out]
Jan 2027 sell 0.1btc
I think that in 2027 the price will be below the average of 200w,
it would be good to wait until 2028 and then sell 0.02,
if at least 10% above 200week average...hehehe..
hold on a little longer...
you drink a good water, I believe you pass 100Y! even more so that quit smoking....
Take good care of your diabetes, avoid sugars, and don't use sweeteners.
Your idea (ESG) of Phil waiting for 2028 may or may not be necessary, and surely not for the reasons that you gave. The price being below the 200 WMA in January 2027 seems a wee bit of a long shot - like you are anticipating high odds for some form of Armagaedon.
On the other hand, it may not be a bad idea to make sure that the BTC price is at least a bit above the 200-WMA before authorizing any sales such as greater than 10% as you suggested, even though in my own projections of how to use the 200-WMA and to engage in sustainable withdrawal I start to reduce authorized sales amounts once the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA..
AT the same time, in some sense, I think that we expect that the BTC price (and especially the 200-WMA) to be generally trending upwards, even during down years the 200-WMA is tending to trend upwards... at least so far in bitcoin's price dynamic's history.
-Yes, it seems to be a very risky long-shot, but, the price being close
to the average of 200W as it is now, makes the week-average of 200
in the long term not grow so much in value, I take into account the
points at which the price is for a certain period below the average of 180W
from time to time, just as I marked in the weekly chart below.
-So, looking at these markings in which the price is for a little period below
the 180-week average, it is noted that the price of Bitcoin has hardly lost
and or stayed below the average of 200W, and it is also noted that
these are strong points of buying volume.
Can this scenario change?, this is the question that remains,
taking into account that past movements do not dictate future movements.
So, I say that the price in 2027 will be below the average of 200W,
is practically an unfounded statement, practically not applicable, however,
we can risk that it will be below the average of 180W based on one of
my most recent theories that come up a lot daily in my head,
and this theory has been hammering my neurons a little for a few months.
In this theory, I base myself on the formation of the shoulder head shoulder pattern
in the monthly that was not materialized.
This formation started after the price left 60k in October 2024,
and went up to 109 in or until January 2025., and then falling to 76/80k
in March 2025 forming the left shoulder, when it started a new high
in April 2025 going until October 2025, where it formed the head at 126k,
starting the bearish leg, which seemed to be held at the 80k support
to then start the third bullish leg, which would possibly form
the right shoulder with suggested resistance at 104~108k....
-But no, 80k didn't hold the selling pressure, leading the price
to lose that 80k support and reach 60k.
And this is where my unsubstantiated crazy theory comes into play.
So, we can say that, big players, realized that other big players would try
this formation and entered into a dispute, while some sold, others composed,
and then they realized this fight, and entered into an agreement,
that it would be better for everyone if the price would return to the territory
to the 60~70k area and make an accumulation, leading to understand
that this could be a bear trap that lost support at 80k,
And then as soon as these players come to an agreement,
the price will go back to 80k, and then they will continue that bullish leg
that will go out of 80k and go up to 108k, and then they will start
the bearish leg of the shoulder head shoulder formation,
taking the price below the 60k range and or holding on to that 70k accumulation
that has been made, and we won't have lower prices than that from then on...
Starting the bullish rally that will aim for the price to go beyond 156k
and go up to 180k, leaving the territory free for an infinite rally.
And or else, in the worst case, the price stabilizes at 100k and
we will not see a new high... And then go to zero, as many experts say,
this is just another bubble and bitcoin died hahahaha....
But, considering this theory that I just mentioned,
which you will not find on the internet, as I just wrote it,
we can say that, in January 2027 the price may be below the average of 180W,
and then in early 2028, the price may be above the average of 180W,
at least that 10%, where I believe that it will be above 80K
.
-Monthly chart explaining what I just wrote in an easy and intuitive way
to understand a probability of what can and cannot happen...
Easy, very easy hehehe...
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