Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

my technical analysis:

smoke enough weed till the chart lines blur, then click "buy"

worked out great so far

I have a friend that is the definition of a stoner. He never got any of that technical analysis stuff. A few years ago while many were writing all kinds of charts he was smoking and invested a small part of his stash in some shitcoin which he flipped fast for a big increase in Bitcoin. Smoke and buy was his motto, or buy and smoke. One of those.  

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

I hope not, let's see what Powell says this week.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Sentiment is more bullish than anticipated when those longs below $70K not getting liquidated.

...yet  
But i am surprised by the strength of local support in the current range, while $74k-$75k as resistance was pretty obvious.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

It's acting like 74 as an important door to be knocked on. I think this is the second time knocking.

Yep, 2nd time. Prepare to get knocked off again. This could go on a while.
EDIT: Now it's the third time, today. The last time wasn't followed by a deep drop, other than the first time. Quite bullish, imo.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

You are speaking my mind.

I agree that the strength of the support is surprising.  However, Saylor just made a MASSIVE purchase so we will have to wait until that money settles down to see if it was a fluke pump or if we are actually trying to change the trend.  We are right there, but obviously I think this is a bull trap to setup more shorts as it is too early for the market to already be recovering.  I'll admit that a move upward would be bullish, at least in the short term.  The next major resistance level isn't until $97K.  We are basically just watching to see how much appetite the market has for STRC right now.  Will investors continue chasing 11% yields until the bear market is behind us?

[Leahized]

@sminston_with

It's interesting to see the overlap between Bitcoin's 200WMA and its estimated Cost of Production.

First off: the price (~$74,000) is sitting within about 1% the power law 'average' production cost.

2nd: these metrics suggest we're not where you think we are in the market cycle.

- - - - - - -

You'll notice there are several of these 'plateaus' in the 200WMA - and when they transition from one plateau to the next one up, typically pushing the WMA itself ABOVE the CoP, it is during these transitions when a bull run happens.

This time - since the FTX crash/end of 2022 - the price rose 7.8x despite have NO detectable plateau-plateau transition - in fact that whole time, the 200WMA has been trending downward, the same as how it has done every time during an 'accumulation market,' NOT a bull market.

I believe this supports the ISM PMI theory; this has NOT been a bull run, its been a pseudo-bull run, similar to 2019.

Of course, this also implies that we HAVE BEEN down the bear market path for some time, and once the business cycle picks up again (may be happening in a matter of months or less), Bitcoin price could start to experience the turnaround we've all been watching for.

Current BTC Price:   $74,324
200-Week MA:         $58,751   (BTC is +26.5% above)
CoP Power Law:  $73,523   (BTC is +1.1% above)


https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2033558660363022846

Even better visualized with the CoP power law as the residuals baseline:



Visualized equally clearly with the .05 Quantile Power Law baseline:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Time will tell if this rally gets any where near 118k and is a real bull and not a baby bull.

Oh gawd..  
There is no such thing as baby bull.  Baby bulls are like fairies..

Imaginary.

Aww!  That one hurt a little.

Don't shoot the messenger.., as "they" say.

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.
I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

Yeah but?

Have you bought any back?  As a hedge?

None of us can be "that" confident about our believes in which way the BTC price may or may not go.

Support at $72,000 must hold. Then, let's hope we clear the $79,000 resistance point soon - and then it's 'Go' time.   We just don't want it to go down below $72k, but instead clear $79k... Go, go, go!

Dee actual cornz (have you heard about it?) no give no shits about your random expectations regarding what "needs to" happen to it, or not.

@sminston_with

It's interesting to see the overlap between Bitcoin's 200WMA and its estimated Cost of Production.

First off: the price (~$74,000) is sitting within about 1% the power law 'average' production cost.

2nd: these metrics suggest we're not where you think we are in the market cycle.

- - - - - - -

You'll notice there are several of these 'plateaus' in the 200WMA - and when they transition from one plateau to the next one up, typically pushing the WMA itself ABOVE the CoP, it is during these transitions when a bull run happens.

This time - since the FTX crash/end of 2022 - the price rose 7.8x despite have NO detectable plateau-plateau transition - in fact that whole time, the 200WMA has been trending downward, the same as how it has done every time during an 'accumulation market,' NOT a bull market.

Your use of the English language comes off as wee bit confusing, especially the idea of "trending down."

FYI.  So far in bitcoin's history, the 200WMA has never trended down - sure there have been times when it was less steep, but the 200-WMA never trended down.

You can punch in various numbers and look at the 200-WMA history (look here), and you likely will see that between June 2022 and October 2023, the BTC price spent a whole hell-of-a-lot of time below the 200-WMA and even got as low as 36% below the BTC price at the peak, yet even during that worst period of time, the 200-WMA continued to go up at least $10 per day and including overall yearly average that never went below 1% annual increase.   

So FYI.. "diminishing up" is not the same as "trending down."

I believe this supports the ISM PMI theory; this has NOT been a bull run, its been a pseudo-bull run, similar to 2019.

Aren't you the BIGGEST party poop in the world.

As you recall our price increase from April 2019 to June 2019 was about 3.5x from $4,200 to $13,880,  so it was only half way back to the ATH and then a regression back to the starting point, including the March 2020 fluke down to $3,800.

so yeah, that 2019 boost was preceded by around a 84% correction through 2018.

Of course, this also implies that we HAVE BEEN down the bear market path for some time, and once the business cycle picks up again (may be happening in a matter of months or less), Bitcoin price could start to experience the turnaround we've all been watching for.

Current BTC Price:   $74,324
200-Week MA:         $58,751   (BTC is +26.5% above)
CoP Power Law:  $73,523   (BTC is +1.1% above)

https://x.com/sminston_with/status/2033558660363022846
Even better visualized with the CoP power law as the residuals baseline:

Visualized equally clearly with the .05 Quantile Power Law baseline:

Your squigglies are far from convincing.  If I just spit-ball the situation, it seems equally plausible that we could be going through some variation of the 2021 double top scenario.

Nothing wrong with attempting to prepare for both down and up, as long as you don't fail/refuse to be adequately prepared for up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Your squigglies are far from convincing.  If I just spit-ball the situation, it seems equally plausible that we could be going through some variation of the 2021 double top scenario.

Nothing wrong with attempting to prepare for both down and up, as long as you don't fail/refuse to be adequately prepared for up.

That would be the most confusing (for traders) scenario, wouldn't it?
Well...sometimes markets are "trying" to ruin both bulls and bears in succession (that is if you sell /buy in an inopportune time).

[philipma1957]

We’re currently on a run of 8 consecutive daily green candles. I really hope this doesn’t end with one nasty red, Darth Maul daily candle, erasing over a weeks worth of gains like we’ve seen so many times before.

I don’t have any real hope short term as we are still in a bear market which I don’t think has bottomed yet. I would love so much to be wrong though and the bottom is already in as people rotate out of metals and stocks, pumping money into Bitcoin as we hit new all time highs in the second half of 2026.

Shit, I’m talking myself into a short term bullish mindset. Let’s ******* go, pump the orange coin.

hey do the fucking math

59k to 74k is a 25.4% increase

at worst we are in an undecided market.

I really would love to slap these mother fuckers scream bear bear bear when we are up 25.4% from the low

enough already.

JJG is getting a hint of what is happening and he the permanent bull of perma bulls. wants to argue no baby bulls and no fairy's  jeese what the fuck is wrong with you guys.

this is the birth of a new bull run and JJG says there are no baby bulls holy fucking shit.

and you going along with fear fear fear

damn we are fucking rising.

now if you want to say WWIII is coming due to Trump and his madness well I won't argue that as much.

I will say I have had 40 years of play time with my wife which is a pretty good win for me

much better than the BTC

Doge Ltc Solana and silver with a bit of gold I have.

Rant over.

watching 74K is fun I really want the 4 year cycle people to realize they fucked up by. thinking we would drop under 59k.

So I will push my agenda of mocking them in the hopes I am correct.

but as will all know honey badger does not give a fuck in the least.

and as for the mine I am soon to get a strong raise in coin earnings.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   940946  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   92.1243%  (1491 / 1618.47 expected, 127.47 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   144398401518100.9                            
Current Difficulty:   145042165424853.3                            
Next Difficulty:   between 133648381961819 and 134364187025888
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.8555% and -7.3620%
Previous Retarget:   March 5, 2026 at 12:25 PM  (+0.4458%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 4:11 PM  (in 3d 21h 1m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:08 PM  (in 3d 22h 58m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 15d 2h 46m 35s and 15d 4h 43m 28s

these numbers will translate to about 8% more coins earned each day for me.

so 0.00103x1.08= 0.0011124btc  

which is a nice daily dca number.
along with the signature coins.

I will likely be over 2.0 btc before 2027.

Some thing to look forward to.

[OgNasty]

watching 74K is fun I really want the 4 year cycle people to realize they fucked up by. thinking we would drop under 59k.

So I will push my agenda of mocking them in the hopes I am correct.

Mock away my friend. We are still a very long way from me regretting selling the top and getting further with each weekly interest payment. For the first time in 6 months though, we are seeing a bullish signal. I will give you that. Will we see a new 2026 low before a new 2026 high? I still think so.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Your squigglies are far from convincing.  If I just spit-ball the situation, it seems equally plausible that we could be going through some variation of the 2021 double top scenario.
Nothing wrong with attempting to prepare for both down and up, as long as you don't fail/refuse to be adequately prepared for up.

That would be the most confusing (for traders) scenario, wouldn't it?
Well...sometimes markets are "trying" to ruin both bulls and bears in succession (that is if you sell /buy in an inopportune time).

Historically in bitcoin, there haver been a lot of situation in which guys sold too much too soon, and then the BTC price went up, and they were so certain that the price was going to continue to go down, so then they did not end up buying back, even when they were presented with an opportunity to buy back.

I don't know the solution, even though surely there are some guy who might have had sold without any expectation of buying back, and so they were willing to accept those consequences... and maybe some of them end up having regrets about not buying back - we might not end up knowing until quite a ways down the road.

.......  this is the birth of a new bull run and JJG says there are no baby bulls holy fucking shit.

I don't claim to be always correct, yet I am still trying to give my sense of things.

now if you want to say WWIII is coming due to Trump and his madness well I won't argue that as much.

True.  There remains a bit of lingering uncertainty in the real world.

watching 74K is fun I really want the 4 year cycle people to realize they fucked up by. thinking we would drop under 59k.

That is true.  We have had those periods in bitcoin's history, and it tends to feel good while it is happening.

We cannot count on it happening.. and even in the early stages of a bull market (in which we might figure out subsequently to have had been a bull market), the UP moves will frequently feel that they are happening gradually and continuously and with a rampening up effect, even with some correction along the way... so the price would rarely go straight up without some corrections along the way, even though when zooming out, the correction that had ended up happening along the way might not be as apparent in the zoomed out perspective as they had felt while going through them.

So I will push my agenda of mocking them in the hopes I am correct.

Your odds of successful mockery is likely less than approximately 42.61397935% - #justsaying

and as for the mine I am soon to get a strong raise in coin earnings.
......
I will likely be over 2.0 btc before 2027.
Some thing to look forward to.

I hope so, but don't count your chickens before they hatch...   #justsaying

[philipma1957]

75k looks better than 74k

i realized why the jump happened.

it is not saylor
it is not Iran war

I switched from whiskey to tequila.

it is a nice 80 proof aged tequila with a pretty bottle.

Dos Artes Anejo 1 full liter

[BTCETFInvestor]

Bitcoin's move above $75,900 today (3/16/2026) marks a significant technical milestone, as it puts Bitcoin above the 50-day SMA ($75,836) and the high-liquidity resistance zone that has capped the market since February.

Whether this momentum continues depends on how Bitcoin handles the next 48 hours, which many traders are calling the "Bull-Bear Decider."

Resistance Levels: Where the "Sellers" Are Waiting
The heavy volume indicates that buyers are currently in control, but historical data and options market positioning suggest two major hurdles ahead:

$75,000 – $76,000 (Immediate Test): This is a "dealer gamma" zone. In the options market, many market makers may be forced to hedge their positions if Bitcoin holds above this level, which could ironically fuel more buying. However, it is also a psychological area where many "trapped" buyers from late 2025 are looking to exit at break-even.

$79,000 – $80,000 (The "Line in the Sand"): Most technical analysts agree that a daily close above $80,000 would officially invalidate the bear market structure. This level marks the top of the descending channel that has been in place since the October 2025 highs.

Sentiment & Probabilities
Prediction markets (like Polymarket) have reacted sharply to today’s volume:

The odds of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 before the end of March have jumped to 40%.

The probability of a re-test of $65,000 has dropped to 30%, suggesting that the "bottom" feels much more secure to traders today than it did last week.

The Macro "Time Bomb"
The biggest threat to this rally is the Federal Reserve meeting this Wednesday.

The Bull Scenario: If the Fed signals that they are satisfied with cooling inflation (despite oil price spikes), Bitcoin could use this volume to "squeeze" shorts up toward $82,000.

The Bear Scenario: If the Fed remains hawkish, citing geopolitical risks or the U.S. military funding needs, we could see a "bull trap" where the price fast-reverses back toward $70,000.

Summary of Expectations:

[vapourminer]

i realized why the jump happened.

it is not saylor
it is not Iran war

I switched from whiskey to tequila.

it is a nice 80 proof aged tequila with a pretty bottle.

Dos Artes Anejo 1 full liter

yeah well my weed is 97% TAC

ergo: see ya at 97k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

i realized why the jump happened.

it is not saylor
it is not Iran war

I switched from whiskey to tequila.

it is a nice 80 proof aged tequila with a pretty bottle.

Dos Artes Anejo 1 full liter

yeah well my weed is 97% TAC

ergo: see ya at 97k

good the tequila gets us back over 80k then your weed makes the next move.

I just had a shot of it after dinner it is really fucking good.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Multiple market trackers report roughly $540–$550M of crypto liquidations in the past 24h (several hundred million from shorts). The magnitude of forced short exits rapidly amplified upside price moves in BTC by removing bearish leverage and triggering momentum buying, creating near‑term bullish pressure and higher volatility for Bitcoin.

In the past 24 hours, 123,734 traders were liquidated, the total liquidations comes in at $544.19 million. The largest single liquidation order happened on Bitfinex - value $6.94M.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com