Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1715628540]

1715628540

[1715628540]

1715628540

[1715628540]

1715628540

[EuroTrash]

Are there any news out or did the quest for cheaper coins just put us in full panic mode?

Breaking news: failed breakout and 4385 volume. Now here is John with sports.

'Twas that close this time...



... But again, on such unimpressive volume.

[fotosonics]

Someone exposed lobbyists working for Mastercard as being responsible for FUD

http://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/05/09/secs-investor-warning-on-bitcoin-could-stifle-innovation/

[boumalo]

Bumpin up against that $460,-.

Once we break it, we can post train and moon pics.

I can feel all the fiat on the exchanges waiting to buy, it may arrive when we don't except it anymore

[Davyd05]

Woe is me ...price dropped 13 dollars.. after going up $39..from the Monday low of the week were still in.

[TERA]

Bumpin up against that $460,-.

Once we break it, we can post train and moon pics.

I can feel all the fiat on the exchanges waiting to buy, it may arrive when we don't except it anymore

Bitstamp is like... 'lol what should we do about all this fiat? I guess post some vague tweets about bitcoin going to the moon'

[trc]

These last couple hours kind of shows that there are traders in the game that learned to accept that "dumpers will dump" no matter what and use it to their advantage. Good stuff.

[latoxine]

Bumpin up against that $460,-.

Once we break it, we can post train and moon pics.

I can feel all the fiat on the exchanges waiting to buy, it may arrive when we don't except it anymore

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jQqQglj8zAI/T_iKrmlP_rI/AAAAAAAABis/4vdnRDCum5w/s320/usd-1_billion_dollars-1,000,000,000_USD-v2.jpg

Bitstamp is like... 'lol what should we do about all this fiat? I guess post some vague tweets about bitcoin going to the moon'

Yes, I'm not on Bitstamp but on Kraken, but I can see my few fiat waiting on the ground !

[alexanderrrr]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 11

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-05-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2823 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-10-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-10-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg

[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/10 was very good (S = 0.0018, W = 0.939) but again way off the assumed trend.  We must abandon the previous trend, and assume a new straight-line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points (the second one, May/09, having nearly zero weight).  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/08, A = 2743.57, B = +26.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.19 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.17 today (May/10), and 6.21, 6.21, 6.16, 6.23, 6.18 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Satuday 2014-05-10, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Satuday 2014-05-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

Foiled again again by the treacherous Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2739 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2796 CNY
Error: 57 CNY (~9 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 12 USD
 
NOTE: Evaluation of the Chinese Slumber Method coming soon. Prepare to laugh.

You are way off pretty much every time. What's making you posting predictions?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dalmar]

What's taking so long for the latest doomsday PR to come out and stop the breakout attempt?

The PBOC never releases FUD on weekends.

I was wrong, PBOC sponsored FUD did come out  

http://finance.caixin.com/2014-05-11/100675750.html

[TERA]

What's taking so long for the latest doomsday PR to come out and stop the breakout attempt?

The PBOC never releases FUD on weekends.

I was wrong, PBOC sponsored FUD did come out  

http://finance.caixin.com/2014-05-11/100675750.html

I don't see anything about PBOC in this article. There is a reporter covering how FXBTC has pulled a gox.

[Dalmar]

I don't see anything about PBOC in this article. There is a reporter covering how FXBTC has pulled a gox.

''the central bank allowed free trading, refers to a personal transaction between similar stamps occasional transaction, rather than through the trading platform of large transactions. Because in the trading platform, trading capital is completely opaque, illegally occupied the platform, even trading platform ever-present risk of foot is equal to social stability left a time bomb. Meanwhile, for a variety of exchanges, the State Department policy is very clear, that must be cleaned.

According to Article 20 of the "People's Bank of China Law", no unit or individual shall not print or sell tokens bills to replace the circulation of RMB in the market. Violators central bank should be ordered to stop illegal and impose a fine of 200,000 yuan.''
---

The article is likely PBOC sponsored like most Caixin bitcoin related news, conveniently released when bitcoin was about to touch a major trend line.

[Hunyadi]

Oh, this doesn't look good at all.

Oh dear!

[strawbs]

The article is likely PBOC sponsored like most Caixin bitcoin related news, conveniently released when bitcoin was about to touch a major trend line.

I very much doubt that PBOC are doing pseudo TA on bitcoin "trend lines"  

[TERA]

I don't see anything about PBOC in this article. There is a reporter covering how FXBTC has pulled a gox.

''the central bank allowed free trading, refers to a personal transaction between similar stamps occasional transaction, rather than through the trading platform of large transactions. Because in the trading platform, trading capital is completely opaque, illegally occupied the platform, even trading platform ever-present risk of foot is equal to social stability left a time bomb. Meanwhile, for a variety of exchanges, the State Department policy is very clear, that must be cleaned.

According to Article 20 of the "People's Bank of China Law", no unit or individual shall not print or sell tokens bills to replace the circulation of RMB in the market. Violators central bank should be ordered to stop illegal and impose a fine of 200,000 yuan.''
---

The article is likely PBOC sponsored like most Caixin bitcoin related news, conveniently released when bitcoin was about to touch a major trend line.

That is a footnote the reporter added to catch readers up on old news. The real news is about FXBTC.

[eiskalt]

Someone exposed lobbyists working for Mastercard as being responsible for FUD

http://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/05/09/secs-investor-warning-on-bitcoin-could-stifle-innovation/

To me it seems more like Perianne Boring is spreading forbes-FUD.

The possible social benefits of Bitcoin far outweigh the investment threats of Bitcoin. This Investor Alert must stem from the approximate $500 million worth of bitcoin that was lost in the Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange.

There were tons of BTC stolen by fraud/hacks/theft long before mtgox. Central banks around the world issued warnings concerning bitcoin long ago. I guess mastercard lobbied the PBOC as well. 

[JorgeStolfi]

I don't see anything about PBOC in this article. There is a reporter covering how FXBTC has pulled a gox.

I understood that (1) FXBTC went downn one day earlier than some clients expected and they lost tens of thousands of yuan; (2) The PBoC or other agency has decided that bitcoin exchanges are violating some securities trading laws.

But it is all too confusing. I wish I had learned Chinese when my brain was still soft enough...

[EuroTrash]

ok so let me guess how this might play out:

1. FXBTC played a Gox (fact)
2. Other exchanges might be operating a fractional reserve too (speculation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=592760.msg6505570#msg6505570) (meh, call me fudster if you want)
3. Chinese traders are worried that other exchanges might pull a Gox too and hence a part of them will aim for the fiat exit door, depressing the price.
4. 1 and 2 add another reason for PBoC to want to "protect the people" and pull the plug on the other exchanges before a large scale Goxxing happens.
5. When/if 4 happens, we will soon discover how much is the impact on price on western exchanges. It might as well be the final test (bit like the "Silk Road bust" test last year) and bring the decoupling that everyone here seems to be expecting.

[akujin]

What?! It dropped already? I expected at least 460... And it's Sunday... Weaksauce