Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

Anyone want to ask me if I am still holding my 1200 BTC shorts now?

Chessnut? Are you online?

hehehe, good call, but don't get too cheeky

real question to me is now: will we break 420 (which provided some minor support recently) on this leg down or not. daily lower BB sits at ~413, that's as low as I can see it go in the next days, in all likelihood.

I actually do not know. It is possible that we will make a higher low and confirm ourselves in a consolidating channel - which will correspond with the consolidating longer term wedge. And then we will have the "come to jesus" breakout sometime later this month.

That's a scary thought for bulls, because to breakout to the upside we need FRESH FIAT.

Meanwhile this strong impulse down is screaming follow through, so we may get a chance to test this consolidation theory very soon.

Bitstamp order book look scary - for the bulls

Alot of the "bids" on Stamp and Finex are just for show. As soon as the market goes down 20-25% of them usually disappear.

[Blue]

Non?

Si.

Ooh!

Bretter !! Bretter !! Bretter !! Bretter !! Bretter !! Bretter !!

[windjc]

Guys - fiat is leaving the Chinese exchanges.

That is why the market is selling off.

wasn't it suppose to have be done before may the 10th ?

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

I'm not sure about that.
Check Bitfinex, 75% are bulls and 25% bears, even we are in a bear market. Chinese exchanges could follow the same pattern, that means a lot of longs probably need to be closed in the near future before they halt margin trade.

That could mean more dumps incoming.

Maybe. But explain to me how Finex's stats can be real?

Longs never go below $14 million even on the most bearish days. How can they pay the interests and never close? Likewise, shorts never go below 7K.

Unless there are REALLY long term loans on each side at low low interest rates, then I can't understand how those stats are real.

[dreamspark]

Guys - fiat is leaving the Chinese exchanges.

That is why the market is selling off.

wasn't it suppose to have be done before may the 10th ?

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

I'm not sure about that.
Check Bitfinex, 75% are bulls and 25% bears, even we are in a bear market. Chinese exchanges could follow the same pattern, that means a lot of longs probably need to be closed in the near future before they halt margin trade.

That could mean more dumps incoming.

Maybe. But explain to me how Finex's stats can be real?

Longs never go below $14 million even on the most bearish days. How can they pay the interests and never close? Likewise, shorts never go below 7K.

Unless there are REALLY long term loans on each side at low low interest rates, then I can't understand how those stats are real.

One thing I've noticed with lending on fenix is often people take loans and close their positions but never actually give back the borrowed BTC or Fiat and it sits in the unused swaps tab. Its happened to me before as well and you can tell by how often a loan is out for the full period when your a lender.

[windjc]

Guys - fiat is leaving the Chinese exchanges.

That is why the market is selling off.

wasn't it suppose to have be done before may the 10th ?

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

I'm not sure about that.
Check Bitfinex, 75% are bulls and 25% bears, even we are in a bear market. Chinese exchanges could follow the same pattern, that means a lot of longs probably need to be closed in the near future before they halt margin trade.

That could mean more dumps incoming.

Maybe. But explain to me how Finex's stats can be real?

Longs never go below $14 million even on the most bearish days. How can they pay the interests and never close? Likewise, shorts never go below 7K.

Unless there are REALLY long term loans on each side at low low interest rates, then I can't understand how those stats are real.

One thing I've noticed with lending on fenix is often people take loans and close their positions but never actually give back the borrowed BTC or Fiat and it sits in the unused swaps tab. Its happened to me before as well and you can tell by how often a loan is out for the full period when your a lender.

But holding longs at rates from 28% to 150%+ is expensive as hell. How could anyone have done this in a 5 month bear market. It doesn't add up for me.

[dreamspark]

Guys - fiat is leaving the Chinese exchanges.

That is why the market is selling off.

wasn't it suppose to have be done before may the 10th ?

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

I'm not sure about that.
Check Bitfinex, 75% are bulls and 25% bears, even we are in a bear market. Chinese exchanges could follow the same pattern, that means a lot of longs probably need to be closed in the near future before they halt margin trade.

That could mean more dumps incoming.

Maybe. But explain to me how Finex's stats can be real?

Longs never go below $14 million even on the most bearish days. How can they pay the interests and never close? Likewise, shorts never go below 7K.

Unless there are REALLY long term loans on each side at low low interest rates, then I can't understand how those stats are real.

One thing I've noticed with lending on fenix is often people take loans and close their positions but never actually give back the borrowed BTC or Fiat and it sits in the unused swaps tab. Its happened to me before as well and you can tell by how often a loan is out for the full period when your a lender.

But holding longs at rates from 28% to 150%+ is expensive as hell. How could anyone have done this in a 5 month bear market. It doesn't add up for me.

Im not suggesting the same people are holding those loans as they auto close after 30 days. Just that that happens, especially with BTC as its so cheap to borrow.

[windjc]

Guys - fiat is leaving the Chinese exchanges.

That is why the market is selling off.

wasn't it suppose to have be done before may the 10th ?

Think about it for a second. If you held leveraged trades on Houbi and you were told you had 2 days to close them out before there were no more leveraged trades, what would you do? You would close them out. Since its a bear market, there were many more shorts - so shorts closed and it spurred a small rally.

Meanwhile if you were a HFT trader and new that you wanted to retire from the exchange and bitcoin trading now that HFT will be charged fees, would you sell your positions while the market was rallying? Hell no. You want the best price. So you let the market go up and hope it continues so you can get a better price. But once the market started selling off, you BETTER sell now and get out.

That is what we are seeing.

I'm not sure about that.
Check Bitfinex, 75% are bulls and 25% bears, even we are in a bear market. Chinese exchanges could follow the same pattern, that means a lot of longs probably need to be closed in the near future before they halt margin trade.

That could mean more dumps incoming.

Maybe. But explain to me how Finex's stats can be real?

Longs never go below $14 million even on the most bearish days. How can they pay the interests and never close? Likewise, shorts never go below 7K.

Unless there are REALLY long term loans on each side at low low interest rates, then I can't understand how those stats are real.

One thing I've noticed with lending on fenix is often people take loans and close their positions but never actually give back the borrowed BTC or Fiat and it sits in the unused swaps tab. Its happened to me before as well and you can tell by how often a loan is out for the full period when your a lender.

But holding longs at rates from 28% to 150%+ is expensive as hell. How could anyone have done this in a 5 month bear market. It doesn't add up for me.

Im not suggesting the same people are holding those loans as they auto close after 30 days. Just that that happens, especially with BTC as its so cheap to borrow.

There's not enough trading going on to have that much fiat transferred into new loans by new people. You can literally see the fiat loan fluctuations from 15m-17.5 and the shorts 7k-10k as they bring the market up and down in these small channels. Meanwhile 90% of the longs and shorts never move.

[Cassius]

"My religion is right and yours is wrong" is the leading cause of war and hate in the world.

Nonsense.

Quite.
People of different religions coexist quite happily in many circumstances - usually when there is a degree of prosperity. Religion is just a convenient peg to hang discontent on when there is deprivation. This is why any credible peacebuilding strategy must include economic regeneration and equality (Northern Ireland, South Africa, Israel/Palestine...). Saying that religion is the cause itself is akin to saying skin colour is the cause of war and hate.
You were bang on the money (pun intended) about the warnings against amassing wealth, though, which was the point I was gently trying to make with the comment about monotheism in the first place.

[BitchImightbe]

The last month has been boring.
C´mon Bitcoin, do something 

[windjc]

Oh well. Its mother's day, so the bulls have a good excuse to be absent.

This is boring as hell. I'll check back in when China is trading again and we get our follow through down to $425 (at least).

[T.Stuart]

Oh well. Its mother's day, so the bulls have a good excuse to be absent.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Anyone want to ask me if I am still holding my 1200 BTC shorts now?

Chessnut? Are you online?

hehehe, good call, but don't get too cheeky

real question to me is now: will we break 420 (which provided some minor support recently) on this leg down or not. daily lower BB sits at ~413, that's as low as I can see it go in the next days, in all likelihood.

I actually do not know. It is possible that we will make a higher low and confirm ourselves in a consolidating channel - which will correspond with the consolidating longer term wedge. And then we will have the "come to jesus" breakout sometime later this month.

That's a scary thought for bulls, because to breakout to the upside we need FRESH FIAT.

Meanwhile this strong impulse down is screaming follow through, so we may get a chance to test this consolidation theory very soon.

Bitstamp order book look scary - for the bulls

Alot of the "bids" on Stamp and Finex are just for show. As soon as the market goes down 20-25% of them usually disappear.

I just meant the totals of fiat waiting and btc for sale. Much worse ration than anytime recently

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[inca]

Anyone want to ask me if I am still holding my 1200 BTC shorts now?

Chessnut? Are you online?

hehehe, good call, but don't get too cheeky

real question to me is now: will we break 420 (which provided some minor support recently) on this leg down or not. daily lower BB sits at ~413, that's as low as I can see it go in the next days, in all likelihood.

I actually do not know. It is possible that we will make a higher low and confirm ourselves in a consolidating channel - which will correspond with the consolidating longer term wedge. And then we will have the "come to jesus" breakout sometime later this month.

That's a scary thought for bulls, because to breakout to the upside we need FRESH FIAT.

Meanwhile this strong impulse down is screaming follow through, so we may get a chance to test this consolidation theory very soon.

Bitstamp order book look scary - for the bulls

Alot of the "bids" on Stamp and Finex are just for show. As soon as the market goes down 20-25% of them usually disappear.

I just meant the totals of fiat waiting and btc for sale. Much worse ration than anytime recently

How pray tell do you know the quantity of fiat on bitstamp in order to calculate that ratio?

[OldGeek]

tl;dr;bilae
(too long; don’t read; but informative links at end)

So, now what?  I’ve been studying the tealeaves without result.  I intended to stir some chicken entrails with my long stick but the dog ate them first.  No result.  My fav TA analysts show slightly different interpretations.  Mixed results, mostly lower for an undetermined period, with chances for breakout at ‘some future date’.  Trying to gauge sentiment consensus on here is about like the tea leaves.  No consensus.

I’ve already written that I stopped my day trading activities a few months ago.  I’m now trying to figure out what would be my requirements to re-enter that fun and frustrating arena.  Before I can do that, I have to revisit my reasons to stop trading and pull my btc back.

Sometime in Nov or Dec, I was goxxed twice.  Moved my coins to BTC-e because… speed of that transaction.  Had fun and an increase in coins, trading the peaks and valleys on the way down from ATH.  Then a combination of international events (Senor Putin, China-Japan, China-Philippines, Karpeles-MtSux fiasco, etc.) caused me to reexamine my hole cards.  Then, the realization that coins on an exchange under my control was an illusion.  The control rests with the exchange owner/operator.
 
Therefore, to begin active trading again, I need a reliable exchange.  One that is transparent and honest.  How to judge those requirements?  No clue.  Absent reliable, transparent, and honest, I would need to see a rising trend in coin price.  Stagnant, $20 daily swings, and steady drips to the bottom, just won’t get it for me.  Even with suspect exchanges, I would resume trading on a sustained up trend by removing and depositing coins as needed, a practice that would limit profits, but one that would be much less risky.

While these thoughts have come and gone these last few months, a couple of articles came to my attention.  The first, although I think misnamed, sets out the reasons that alt coins that are substantially clones of bitcoin are doomed to failure (Doge, your days are numbered).  Read here if interested:  Bitcoin suicide

The second article, if true and accurate, (and if you like…extreme conspiracy theory) sets out the reasons why bitcoin will not be the denomination of the world economy.  Warning!  Subversive literature aimed straight at the flag waving fanatics:  World economics, forever out of your control

For the near future, I’m holding my stash.  Waiting for an uptrend that begs to be traded, fiat available on two days notice.

[fotosonics]

tl;dr;bilae
(too long; don’t read; but informative links at end)

So, now what?  I’ve been studying the tealeaves without result.  I intended to stir some chicken entrails with my long stick but the dog ate them first.  No result.  My fav TA analysts show slightly different interpretations.  Mixed results, mostly lower for an undetermined period, with chances for breakout at ‘some future date’.  Trying to gauge sentiment consensus on here is about like the tea leaves.  No consensus.

I’ve already written that I stopped my day trading activities a few months ago.  I’m now trying to figure out what would be my requirements to re-enter that fun and frustrating arena.  Before I can do that, I have to revisit my reasons to stop trading and pull my btc back.

Sometime in Nov or Dec, I was goxxed twice.  Moved my coins to BTC-e because… speed of that transaction.  Had fun and an increase in coins, trading the peaks and valleys on the way down from ATH.  Then a combination of international events (Senor Putin, China-Japan, China-Philippines, Karpeles-MtSux fiasco, etc.) caused me to reexamine my hole cards.  Then, the realization that coins on an exchange under my control was an illusion.  The control rests with the exchange owner/operator.
 
Therefore, to begin active trading again, I need a reliable exchange.  One that is transparent and honest.  How to judge those requirements?  No clue.  Absent reliable, transparent, and honest, I would need to see a rising trend in coin price.  Stagnant, $20 daily swings, and steady drips to the bottom, just won’t get it for me.  Even with suspect exchanges, I would resume trading on a sustained up trend by removing and depositing coins as needed, a practice that would limit profits, but one that would be much less risky.

While these thoughts have come and gone these last few months, a couple of articles came to my attention.  The first, although I think misnamed, sets out the reasons that alt coins that are substantially clones of bitcoin are doomed to failure (Doge, your days are numbered).  Read here if interested:  Bitcoin suicide

The second article, if true and accurate, (and if you like…extreme conspiracy theory) sets out the reasons why bitcoin will not be the denomination of the world economy.  Warning!  Subversive literature aimed straight at the flag waving fanatics:  World economics, forever out of your control

For the near future, I’m holding my stash.  Waiting for an uptrend that begs to be traded, fiat available on two days notice.

Resisting the Jack Burton urge to go "What the hell," Egg Shen says after reading the oracle bones: goat butts against hedge, and its horns become entangled. We have to gather our strength because now there’s clouds and thunder. The image of difficulty at the beginning. But we shall bring order out of chaos.

I happened to be watching "Big Trouble in Little China" and it seemed to make sense.

[RUEHL]

Interesting newer member in BTC-e chat, indicates he is a Wall Street trader. 

Of course, he can be some kid in his parent's basement but his chat logs suggest he does have experience trading and education in business mathematics.  Interesting things said like:

"if CFTC approves of an exchange entity to trade BTC on the like NYMEX or CBOT or any of the commodity trading houses you will see 100k-1,000k% rise weeks before the approval"

"imagine god hit you up and offered you some gold before he cast it onto the earth... now we have bitcoin and its like god is saying to us all who know today hey im about to make the new gold want in before I give it up to everyone"

[NotLambchop]

...
"imagine god hit you up and offered you some gold before he cast it onto the earth... now we have bitcoin and its like god is saying to us all who know today hey im about to make the new gold want in before I give it up to everyone"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[gibbtek]

Just had thought, thought I would share it with you guys for a chuckle...

Why doesn't Putin tell Visa + Mastercard to p*** off and just use bitcoin???

I wonder if someone has suggested it to him