Chinese Slumber Method (non-)prediction for Monday May 12There is no prediction for Monday. In fact there will be no more Chinese Slumber Method (CSM) predictions. [ Waiting for the hoorays to subside. ] A short report about it is in the works, and the conclusions are disappointing: while CSM is more accurate than the banal predictor "tomorrow is like today" (TLT) on about 60% of the days, on the other 40% is so much worse that it loses to TLT, by most other measures.
Checking the previous predictionPrediction was posted on: Sunday 2014-05-11, 02:04 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Sunday 2014-05-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~17 hours later)
Foiled again again
again by the treacherous Chinese:
Huobi's predicted price: 2823 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2687 CNY
Error: 136 CNY (~22 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 438 USD
Error: 18 USD
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NOTE:
"Erasmus Darwin had a theory that once in a while one should perform a
damn-fool experiment. It almost always fails, but when it does come
off is terrific. Darwin played the trombone to his tulips. The result
of this particular experiment was negative."
-- J.E.Littlewood