Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

I don't recall that someone sold 30% as @JJG says, albeit i might simply not paid enough attention. I did not sell any.
Generally speaking, the amplitude of bitcoin oscillations seem to be decreasing, but too few data points, still.
If we did not surge up too much in 2025, then, by the same token maybe we shouldn't plunge as much as previously, but it is not the strong rule, of course.

So far, we went down to around 58K (on June 25), which is roughly 54% down from the 126K top.
It seems that June 25 price undercut Feb 6 price by about 2K.
Whether the price was slightly different on some other platforms, I don't care.
I can easily see the price close to 58K being a low, but it doesn't have to be. Maybe 50:50.
Among the 38-58K continuum, it seems that some people point to the middle of that rage (at 48K) as a distinct possibility (-62%).
Sounds quite brutal and a bit unlikely to me, again, considering a weak bull.
Difficulty decrease is already bigger than before and quite a few params (but not all) indicating a bottom are already flashing.

In the end, it might depend on some factors that are not easy to see rn.
EDIT: my personal hope is for 75K by 12/31.

I sold .85
Out of 2.3

Leaving 1.45

Can't take a full on hit if we are to collapse

Do you ever consider hedging with an option/future in this scenario?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Fucking Kraken, I tried to sign in and its asking for friggin authenticator app shit I never even setup.

yeah I have an app and a yubikey with them

I can use either one.

they forced the app on me last year.

so I went out and purchased a key for 29 bucks at Best Buy


having both ways is better.

Yes but my point it I never set one up and they are requiring a challenge response from something NEVER setup !!!!!

if its windows (or perhaps its firefox that triggers it?) maybe it wants your login password?  ive had weird challenges from kraken/coinbase and such before depending on what windows account i was on.

No winblows here.

[Richy_T]

You dont know how much it pissed me off to make 1500 steps to just open an account..... i missed the old internet man, i know some of the requeriments can be usefull and give some silly people an extra layer of security but for us who knows how to behave is super annoying, you need to spend so much time between password, 2FA or MFA.

And they keep adding things.

Gotta love logging into an account - which means an authentication email. Getting into email requires an authentication SMS which means logging into Google Voice.

Amazon AWS added 2FA as a requirement too. Gives you three options to choose from. No idea which is the best so now you get a crash course on security options with no time to make sure you're making the right decision. Somehow I managed to get around that so that decision is still hanging out there.

Then there's all the fun with infrequently used accounts (often with stupid password requirements) where one has to track down password, old phones, old email accounts etc.

Many companies still using SMS for 2FA too (or worse, account access or recovery) which is known bullshit.

And I consider myself reasonably tech savvy. This has to be 10x worse for many people.

I should probably just get a hardware key and start using that as the default.

[JayJuanGee]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

I don't recall that someone sold 30% as @JJG says, albeit i might simply not paid enough attention. I did not sell any.
Generally speaking, the amplitude of bitcoin oscillations seem to be decreasing, but too few data points, still.
If we did not surge up too much in 2025, then, by the same token maybe we shouldn't plunge as much as previously, but it is not the strong rule, of course.

So far, we went down to around 58K (on June 25), which is roughly 54% down from the 126K top.
It seems that June 25 price undercut Feb 6 price by about 2K.
Whether the price was slightly different on some other platforms, I don't care.
I can easily see the price close to 58K being a low, but it doesn't have to be. Maybe 50:50.
Among the 38-58K continuum, it seems that some people point to the middle of that rage (at 48K) as a distinct possibility (-62%).
Sounds quite brutal and a bit unlikely to me, again, considering a weak bull.
Difficulty decrease is already bigger than before and quite a few params (but not all) indicating a bottom are already flashing.

In the end, it might depend on some factors that are not easy to see rn.
EDIT: my personal hope is for 75K by 12/31.

I sold .85
Out of 2.3
Leaving 1.45

Can't take a full on hit if we are to collapse

Do you ever consider hedging with an option/future in this scenario?

That is an interesting question, cAPS.  It seems fairly clear that philip tends to go through these phases of "overdoing it" and putting himself into a situation that he cannot handle when the price moves against him or some news comes out that undermines his thesis or otherwise cause him to have high believe that the BTC price "has to" go down before it can go up.. so then he ends up panic selling and/or starting to overly invest in dollar products or some inferior products.  He did the same in late-ish 2022 when he sold bitcoin and was promoting T-Bonds as if they were the savior to humanity.

Many guys get nervous to hedge by getting involved in various financial instruments that tend to carry fees, which leads them to just buy or sell bitcoin directly, even though surely to a lot of us it seems to be a bad idea to sell when the BTC price is already down nearly 50% from its top.. and so many of us would either just buy more or to just HODL through the situation, yet if guys believe that they had already bought too much, they have trouble buying more, and surely several times, philip has already argued that even if he sells at a loss, there is some kind of an "advantage" in selling at a loss because he can use those losses to offset his taxes, as if they were merely paper losses or as if he were some BIG player with excess capital like MSTR, which surely seems to be a problematic approach for a large number of normall guys to calculate taking losses as if they were advantages. 

Business men can maybe get away with calculating losses as advantages to a small degree, especially if they have meaningful cash inflows from their business that they can offset, which I really doubt is the case for philip, even though it can be difficult to know individual circumstances with those kinds of particulars.  Just on the face it seems better to not sell bitcoin (or anything else) at a loss and to avoid those kinds of circumstances to feel some kind of value in selling at a loss, in the first place.

You dont know how much it pissed me off to make 1500 steps to just open an account..... i missed the old internet man, i know some of the requeriments can be usefull and give some silly people an extra layer of security but for us who knows how to behave is super annoying, you need to spend so much time between password, 2FA or MFA.

And they keep adding things.

Gotta love logging into an account - which means an authentication email. Getting into email requires an authentication SMS which means logging into Google Voice.
Amazon AWS added 2FA as a requirement too. Gives you three options to choose from. No idea which is the best so now you get a crash course on security options with no time to make sure you're making the right decision. Somehow I managed to get around that so that decision is still hanging out there.

Then there's all the fun with infrequently used accounts (often with stupid password requirements) where one has to track down password, old phones, old email accounts etc.
Many companies still using SMS for 2FA too (or worse, account access or recovery) which is known bullshit.

And I consider myself reasonably tech savvy. This has to be 10x worse for many people.
I should probably just get a hardware key and start using that as the default.

So many new services are moving over to biometric verification - which is also scary, even if they claim to not be able to see the biometrics details.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

Oh, the good ole times when Cap'n Crunch corn flakes contained really useful toys..

Do they still publish 2600 magazine?

[Numan467]

Fucking Kraken, I tried to sign in and its asking for friggin authenticator app shit I never even setup.

yeah I have an app and a yubikey with them

I can use either one.

they forced the app on me last year.

so I went out and purchased a key for 29 bucks at Best Buy


having both ways is better.

Yes but my point it I never set one up and they are requiring a challenge response from something NEVER setup !!!!!

if its windows (or perhaps its firefox that triggers it?) maybe it wants your login password?  ive had weird challenges from kraken/coinbase and such before depending on what windows account i was on.

No winblows here.

No Windows, no easy scapegoat then. Guess Kraken support is the only joy left for you now.  

[vapourminer]

Oh, the good ole times when Cap'n Crunch corn flakes contained really useful toys..

Do they still publish 2600 magazine?

yes

i do miss Byte magazine 

[psycodad]

Oh, the good ole times when Cap'n Crunch corn flakes contained really useful toys..

Do they still publish 2600 magazine?

Remarkingly, they do:

https://store.2600.com/products/summer-2026

Was an international subscriber for many years in the 90s.

In Europe unfortunately it seems the whole old style scene has transformed from an apolitical hacker scene into some rainbow-hugging clown show. (i.e. CCC in Germany).
Have been attending HIP97 and HAL2001, unforgettable experience really. It was really cool to meet a bunch of my idols there.

[JimboToronto]

Oh, the good ole times when Cap'n Crunch corn flakes contained really useful toys..

Do they still publish 2600 magazine?

yes

i do miss Byte magazine 

And Boot magazine.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Oh, the good ole times when Cap'n Crunch corn flakes contained really useful toys..

Do they still publish 2600 magazine?

holy shit, still going!

https://2600.com/offthehook/2026/0826.html

*been listening to it, pretty good.

[Hueristic]

No Windows, no easy scapegoat then. Guess Kraken support is the only joy left for you now.  

Yeah, I have like a 4 year old ticket i need to look up and reactivate or call them.

I have zero interest in going through a fucking automated phone system to get to a fucking human though.

[Hueristic]

Oh, the good ole times when Cap'n Crunch corn flakes contained really useful toys..

Do they still publish 2600 magazine?

Remarkingly, they do:

https://store.2600.com/products/summer-2026

Was an international subscriber for many years in the 90s.

In Europe unfortunately it seems the whole old style scene has transformed from an apolitical hacker scene into some rainbow-hugging clown show. (i.e. CCC in Germany).
Have been attending HIP97 and HAL2001, unforgettable experience really. It was really cool to meet a bunch of my idols there.

Only one back in the day I subbed to was PC Mag, they were literal reference material.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Numan467]

Yeah, I have like a 4 year old ticket i need to look up and reactivate or call them.

I have zero interest in going through a fucking automated phone system to get to a fucking human though.

"Press 1 for endless loop, press 2 to lose your sanity."

Automated phone support is absolute torture.

Hopefully, the old ticket shortcut gets you straight to a human without the IVR head-scratching.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

Accounts like this are pests:

No Windows, no easy scapegoat then. Guess Kraken support is the only joy left for you now.  

If you offer them food, they will grow, multiply, and constantly return for more.

I don't feel bad saying that because this is not a real person attempting genuine conversation. Its someone's AI-automated 27th account. They are starting over from scratch because they recently had a bunch of accounts busted.

He probably has a lot more than 27 accounts and is laughing that I think its only 27.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com