Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bronstad]

Exponential growth analysis: My Ass
The worst part is that i'm supposed to be a Bull.

It's gonna be alright man...Take a deep breath.

We are up 11% in 3 days, 19% in a week, and 32% in a month. It's all good.

[hyphymikey]

"You shall not pass 600"

"I built these walls with my BEAR hands!"

[Gimmelfarb]

a couple days ago i was pretty sure we would breach 600 and see at least 610 or 620. losing faith in that. this pull back to 590 even though it was almost a full 100% retracement, still looks exactly like a correction. so maybe more down....

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Pump and dump.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[medialab101]

Pump and dump.

This

[MICRO]

Pump and dump.

Only pump. No dump .

[Arghhh]

Everyone, chill out. Let's take a look at the bigger picture.
I think the BitFinex-related dump was a good test of the support.



The coordinates forming the trenline bottom is:
May 19th 07:00 @ $442
May 27th 02:00 @ $550

If this support holds, and barring any bogeyman event, then we should be seeing $600 as support in the next 8-9 days.

[dreamspark]

This

Please read the trolls last 12 ish posts and kindly not quote him again. ta

[hyphymikey]

I'm surprised there are still almost 6K BTC in shorts. I guess they weren't around to close them in the dip to 550. We need a quick hard push up to close them out and keep this rally going.

Out of interest. New shorts are opened all the time so as one closes another one opens per se, what would you consider a small number of lent BTC (bear in mind BTC provided != a short on the market as you can hold liquidity and just pay the interest on it, with BTC that rate of interest is very low so people often take BTC loans at very low rates when they think they may need it soon)

During the last "bubble" under 2K BTC was borrowed. It hasn't gone under 5K since February, even though the trend has changed since. The rates aren't any better now than they have been in the past, so no need to borrow for the future.

http://www.bfxdata.com/bitfinexLiquidityBTC.php

[rezurect]

Exponential growth analysis: My Ass
The worst part is that i'm supposed to be a Bull.

It's gonna be alright man...Take a deep breath.

We are up 11% in 3 days, 19% in a week, and 32% in a month. It's all good.

3 days since the report was published. Redittors and forum members know. What happens when the print media catches onto the story. Hope its factored in. I don't care even if we flatline for a year.
Now, what about the VC's and Wall street. I don't think anybody would want to touch BTC even with 10 feet pole unless the Exchanges clean up the Act. No wonder Bitstamp is putting up all these intrusive AML KYC stuff. Everybody's expecting some serious regulation to come up.

[ErisDiscordia]

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:oc0Mtte8l6MJ:willyreport.wordpress.com/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=in

Fuck, just saw the willy report, we should have crashed and burned?
This makes the previous bubble irrelevant. Historical data from September fake. All those trend-lines and analysis is based on fake trades and volume. Why the hell isn't anybody saying a thing??

The analysis might not be bullshit - personally I think it's quite sound and convincing. I remain agnostic about it, of course.

As has been mentioned, Willy accounted for a rather large amount of volume on Gox and overall, but not overwhelmingly so. Its activity might have initiated and supported the trend, but I wouldn't say it has been a dominant factor. Think of it as Willy putting a multiplier effect on rally - it made it slightly faster and reach slightly higher price levels.

I think that has been mostly priced in now during the 5 month long downward trend. Note how this trend has been longer than the previous one, maybe this "multiplier effect" was one of the reasons why. The final goxing and China banning Bitcoin every week are others.

Meanwhile, as usual, infrastructure has been built, the merchant base has expanded, awareness has been raised, critics converted and ever higher amounts of venture capital flowed into the ecosystem. To say that the current uptrend has no basis just because of the Willy report making some convincing claims (which might not be true at all) about how its activity affected a past rally...seems like attributing too much importance to this. And/or missing the importance of the other developments I mentioned.

Just relax and hodl

[Syke]

<censored for everyone's benefit>

Shit. Someone quoted you and I saw another one of your idiotic answers.

Bitcoin market cap: $7B
Credit card fraud just last year alone: $11B

Fact: more money is lost in a single year due to credit card fraud.

And concerning your further idiotic estimates, it doesn't matter how much Bitpay claims to process. Bitpay is one very small piece of the bitcoin world. blockchain.info estimates nearly 100 million processed per day. And that's only counting actual on-chain transactions. There are countless more off-chain transactions. Your 400 million per year is just more of your bullshit. It's more like 100x that much.

[ErisDiscordia]

<censored for everyone's benefit>

Shit. Someone quoted you and I saw another one of your idiotic answers.

Bitcoin market cap: $7B
Credit card fraud just last year alone: $11B

Fact: more money is lost in a single year due to credit card fraud.

And concerning your further idiotic estimates, it doesn't matter how much Bitpay claims to process. Bitpay is one very small piece of the bitcoin world. blockchain.info estimates nearly 100 million processed per day. And that's only counting actual on-chain transactions. There are countless more off-chain transactions. Your 400 million per year is just more of your bullshit. It's more like 100x that much.

Someone please correct me if I am wrong here, but I think the 100million/day figure includes change outputs from transactions. This means if I send you 2mBTC but my smallest available output is 20BTC the transaction will register as roughly 10,000$ of value transferred, instead of 1$ (assuming a price of 0.5$/mBTC). Also because Bitcoin is pseudonymous there is no way to tell how many of these transactions are between different wallets controlled by the same entity.

But your main point stands, of course.

EDIT: just noticed my currect activity level reads as if it's giving me a suggestion

[dreamspark]

I'm surprised there are still almost 6K BTC in shorts. I guess they weren't around to close them in the dip to 550. We need a quick hard push up to close them out and keep this rally going.

Out of interest. New shorts are opened all the time so as one closes another one opens per se, what would you consider a small number of lent BTC (bear in mind BTC provided != a short on the market as you can hold liquidity and just pay the interest on it, with BTC that rate of interest is very low so people often take BTC loans at very low rates when they think they may need it soon)

During the last "bubble" under 2K BTC was borrowed. It hasn't gone under 5K since February, even though the trend has changed since. The rates aren't any better now than they have been in the past, so no need to borrow for the future.

http://www.bfxdata.com/bitfinexLiquidityBTC.php

Yes during the last bubble but we're not in a bubble we're crawling out of a 6 month downtrend I would never expect there to be more or the same amount of shorts during November as now. Shorting at any point here could easily be a profitable play add on to that the people who are holding shorts from Jan to March is still in a profit position then it surprises me that you are surprised that that we aren't on equal footing to bubble amount of shorts.

Another thing to consider, since pre November bubble Im sure Bitfinex has got a fair few new customers from general market captivation and also Gox traders so again I wouldn't expect it to be reliable data to compare like for like. Ratios on the other hand are a different story.

[phosphorush]

can someone sell 4k BTC? I wanted to buy some 

[ChrisML]

can someone sell 4k BTC? I wanted to buy some 

You had 3 months to buy "some".

Train left, sorry.

[Syke]

Someone please correct me if I am wrong here, but I think the 100million/day figure includes change outputs from transactions.

Blockchain.info attempts to remove change. It's not perfect, but I think it does give a decent ballpark.

Similar to the total output volume with the addition of an algorithm which attempts to remove change from the total value. This may be a more accurate reflection of the true transaction volume.

[hmmmstrange]

+2 [Jorge]'s a paid bank shill.

No, I am a paid government apologist.  Truly.  And not ashamed of it.

As for banks, they are taking maybe 60% of all the taxes I pay now, via interest on Brazil's public debt.  And yet they are trying to topple the President that I voted for.  So, rest assured that I have no love for them.

(In fact, a few years ago I sued a Brazilian bank over some 30 k USD of inflation adjustment fees that they had wronglfully made many years ago to the financing of our home, that was not even ours at the time. It was a standard lawsuit, the courts had already decided that those particular adjustments were illegal; but each victim still had to sue the bank individually, for the joy of the legal profession.  There are even lawyer offices that do nothing else but those lawsuits, and we hired one of them.  But, when the process finally got to court (a couple of years later), the lawyer just forgot to tell us and did not show up in court -- so we lost for WO, and that meant a lot of troubles besides the loss of the money.  We then sued the lawyer, and his fault was so obvious that we actually won; but the judge reduced the claim to ~8 k USD, since he considerd that we might have lost the original suit anyway.  We should have got that money and forgot the case, but our (second) lawyer talked us into appealing; and that was some 8 years ago, which means that in another 7 the appeals court may look at out case again, maybe.)

You do not pay taxes. You are given taxes.

Everything you have, is stolen from the productive people of Brazil. You complain you have to give some of your stolen gains back?

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Still in denial. Triple top forming....you shall not pass.