Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

I just went full bull retard. I bought 10 BTC worth of LTC! Let´s see how that works out, lol.

you are the man my friend...I myself am sitting in the corner ..coward that I am...
hoarding......I salute your big brass ones!

Searing

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[oda.krell]

Also, to stay with your "coin laundering" example, why would there need to be *more* wallets as time progresses (unless adoption by criminals also increases)?

Because the wallets used would be disposable, single-use. I'm assuming a launderer savvy and paranoid enough to use anonymizers of one kind or another to connect to the wallet provider. They'd want to avoid reusing wallets to lower the risk of correllation analysis blowing their operation. Each transaction would therefore involve creating at least two new wallets.

Now, an automated system for something like this would probably stand out  other users, at least in sufficient volume. I don't know to what extent this is happening, but I do believe it is being done - it just makes sense. My point is, with activities requiring the constant creation of new wallets, you'd expect the number of wallets to keep rising even if the number of users did not increase.  Rate of change may be a more interesting statistic to look at.

Yeah, didn't phrase that clear enough, but that was exactly my point: exponential growth in key metrics means increasing rate of change. 'Automatized wallet creation', the way I see it, would explain only a constant (positive) rate of change. The gap is (presumably) due to increase in usage.

[Argwai96]

This is a huge support..... and nobody's buying. Huobi got a bear flag going. I don't think we have hopes for a double bottom here. I think we're going downtown. Just my two cents.

[Wary]

ah, big players, whales and other mythical beings.

well, market does not give a fukk about them.

...until they paint the ticker. What if some big player in accumulation mode is buying directly from pools/OTC, maybe with the 'excuse' that is an ETF/institutional investors who wants just 'clean'/virgin coins. They would use an exchange price as reference so the accumulator would have a big incentive to sell some on the exchanges while buying more OTC to buy as low as possible.

+1 This is what I have been saying too.

I've thought about this theory for quite a while now. The only thing I can't figure out is how many coins they are buying from miners. The most they can buy from a large mining group that doesn't pay out its individual pool members is under 800 coins a day. So why dump so much to only get 800 coins for such a small discount?

They may be selling coins they were accumulating for months.  800*30*n may be worth a dump. 

[falllling]

This is a huge support..... and nobody's buying. Huobi got a bear flag going. I don't think we have hopes for a double bottom here. I think we're going downtown. Just my two cents.

agree, no one wants bitcoin, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down
those who yelling for "cheap coins" are either liars or ponzie scheme scammers

[JayJuanGee]

I just wrote a PM to ShroomsKit asking some questions about the current situation, however the reply came from falllling??

That's the OLD Fonzie that we used to know... spreading FUD>....     Welcome back.

[Argwai96]

Is this an exchange address? Any analysts out there? Curious what's happening to these Etherium coins.

https://blockchain.info/address/1L1JRVExeKiqBU1pmvoyzCfRzCfEP64pBJ

[Hunyadi]

Hahahhaha lots of whiners here! Also, sentiment is fearful and angry   Grow some balls noobs, this is all normal  

[Sandia]

Just to kill off the long squeeze FUD that is being spread on Reddit, take a look at this chart:
http://www.bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd.php
Click All as the time period.

Eyeballing the chart, it looks like (very conservatively) $1M in longs is opened every 6hr period on average, or $4M per day.
There are about $30M in outstanding longs.  This means the average long stays open 7 days.

Realistically, it is closer to $1.25M, $5M, and less than 6 days.  You might notice that $10M in USD swaps was opened in one 24 hour period.

Anyone waiting for margin calls on guys holding from $685, $650, $630 or even $600 positions is nuts.  30M in longs over the last 3 months DOES NOT mean that the positions have been held 3 months.  It means BFX has a pretty stable equilibrium of longs opening and closing such that 30M is outstanding at any particular time.

[JayJuanGee]

ah, big players, whales and other mythical beings.

well, market does not give a fukk about them.

...until they paint the ticker. What if some big player in accumulation mode is buying directly from pools/OTC, maybe with the 'excuse' that is an ETF/institutional investors who wants just 'clean'/virgin coins. They would use an exchange price as reference so the accumulator would have a big incentive to sell some on the exchanges while buying more OTC to buy as low as possible.

+1 This is what I have been saying too.

I've thought about this theory for quite a while now. The only thing I can't figure out is how many coins they are buying from miners. The most they can buy from a large mining group that doesn't pay out its individual pool members is under 800 coins a day. So why dump so much to only get 800 coins for such a small discount?

There are 3,600 new coins mined every day..... so a accumulator could have multiple buying contracts... therefore theoretically get up to 3600 per day if they were slick about it and were able to accomplish such.  Where do you get 800 (which is only 22% of the total BTC mined per day)?

[oda.krell]

You know what's the best part about the current crash? During future crashes, ShroomsKit will have lost all moral high ground to complain about the "weak hands" ^_^

... who am I kidding. He will rant on, as he (or: they) always did. Funny guy.

[Krabby]

Well we have hit the support 5 times now. Will be interesting if it breaks.

[Hunyadi]

Well we have hit the support 5 times now. Will be interesting if it breaks.

[Argwai96]

Well we have hit the support 5 times now. Will be interesting if it breaks.

Indeed. A double bottom can be strong. Triple bottoms are rare -- more often at that point (and with subsequent touches), I think we tend to see bearish triangles form. If it breaks, we might finally break out of this terribly boring sideways/down and get some volatility back.

[gizmoh]

Just to kill off the long squeeze FUD that is being spread on Reddit, take a look at this chart:
http://www.bfxdata.com/swapstats/usd.php
Click All as the time period.

Eyeballing the chart, it looks like (very conservatively) $1M in longs is opened every 6hr period on average, or $4M per day.
There are about $30M in outstanding longs.  This means the average long stays open 7 days.

Realistically, it is closer to $1.25M, $5M, and less than 6 days.  You might notice that $10M in USD swaps was opened in one 24 hour period.

Anyone waiting for margin calls on guys holding from $685, $650, $630 or even $600 positions is nuts.  30M in longs over the last 3 months DOES NOT mean that the positions have been held 3 months.  It means BFX has a pretty stable equilibrium of longs opening and closing such that 30M is outstanding at any particular time.

Stupid Noob talking nonsense.

Most of the Swaps taken are not for New positions but swaps being renewed for existing positions, as most loans are offered on 2 days term.

[tarmi]

we will go through 555 like a hot knife through butter.

I wouldnt call that a bottom. why somebody is calling that a double bottom is beyond me.

and this is not a crash. we are down only 30 $.

[Probability]

You know what's the best part about the current crash?

cheap coins before the next rally..don't forget.

[JayJuanGee]

Interesting: https://blockchain.info/tx/1f2885265a89c6817867e842edf65c536f993c0aa0100a692700a34c81230051

Looks like Ethereum coins are starting to be moved out of the "exodus" address. Now, I wonder if any of those coins will start making their way to exchanges.... :trollface:

When will Ethereum be listed on Coinmarketcap?

[ShroomsKit]

You know what's the best part about the current crash? During future crashes, ShroomsKit will have lost all moral high ground to complain about the "weak hands" ^_^

... who am I kidding. He will rant on, as he (or: they) always did. Funny guy.

I'm not a weak hand. I simply know when things are over.

[tarmi]

houbi dumping, ltc is inverse rocket heading to the core of the earth.

how is your ltc buy doing fonzie?