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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26384237 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Ivanhoe
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August 10, 2014, 11:20:31 AM

interesting buys are happening, and bids are following to support the price.
and asks are pulled.
Sandia
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August 10, 2014, 11:32:08 AM

And the other exchanges are not following Bitstamp.
JayJuanGee
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August 10, 2014, 11:40:18 AM

And the other exchanges are not following Bitstamp.


Sandia... Hello.   We are getting within $3 of never, never land, no?
ChartBuddy
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August 10, 2014, 11:59:49 AM


Explanation
roslinpl
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August 10, 2014, 12:09:54 PM


I told you Smiley >$600 till Monday Tongue

And you didn't believed! =) now you will see! Smiley

Sandia
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August 10, 2014, 12:14:55 PM

And the other exchanges are not following Bitstamp.


Sandia... Hello.   We are getting within $3 of never, never land, no?

Yep, what, 4 days later?
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August 10, 2014, 12:15:40 PM

Nice little rally, not time yet to pull out the GIF images.  Grin
JayJuanGee
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August 10, 2014, 12:27:51 PM

And the other exchanges are not following Bitstamp.


Sandia... Hello.   We are getting within $3 of never, never land, no?

Yep, what, 4 days later?


If you may recall, your prediction included an outline of a seemingly inevitable weekend pattern (and the inclusion of absolutist type language), yet I hope you did NOT put money on that anticipated pattern b/c you would have lost this weekend.  I am NOT trying to suggest that I know much of anything regarding the direction of the market - except possibly that there are NOT absolutes, and my point is that others do NOT know about the direction of the market with much certainty either.. even though we can talk about probabilities, it is overkill to talk in terms of absolutes - b/c very likely you will be wrong (even though you may get it right, once in a while, too). 
Spaceman_Spiff
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August 10, 2014, 12:32:00 PM

Why would you hold Garbagecoin or fiat when it depreciates while you hold it.  Why not immediately exchange your Garbagecoin for BTC that holds its value (or appreciates), and then spend it when you want to spend money? 
People still use dollar bills all the time for their convenience, not bothered by the fact that dollar bills lose 1% (or whatever) per year of purchase power.   People who want to store value do not save dollar bills, they buy stocks, Treasury bonds, real estate, etc..  Why would it not be the same with Bitcoin vs. Garbagecoin?

Only problem is that stocks pay dividends, bonds pay uinterest, but bitcoin is worth anything only if people will want to buy it for use as currency...

That is what a "business plan"  would have to do: describe an economic scenario for bitcoin such that individuals (including ordinary consumers as well as miners, entrepreneurs, big investors, etc.), acting on their self-interest, would tend to maintain that scenario, or at least would not destroy it right away.
The point is that with bitcoin (in the endgame, when it is more stable and super user-friendly) they won't have to buy stocks, bonds etc. to get the same benefits that fiat delivers today.  
Real estate is only for rich people.  Bonds and stocks somewhat less so.  However there are fees associated with moving in and out of bonds, stocks etc. .   If you want to buy and sell bitcoin on an exchange now, there are also fees associated with it, but when more people use it for buying their pizza, paying out salaries etc., this won't be the case.  
Moreover, bitcoin would be more liquid, divisible and fungible than stocks, and therefore more desirable in a transaction.
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August 10, 2014, 12:59:47 PM


Explanation
ChartBuddy
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August 10, 2014, 01:59:48 PM


Explanation
fonsie
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August 10, 2014, 02:07:11 PM

And it's over already. Now everyone will sell to get their 50 bucks profit and we'll be back where we started.

don't forget the people that panic bought and immediately panic sold for a 50 dollar loss. there's plenty of those here too. Smiley

Oh believe me. I'm pretty sure only a very small % of the traders actually make profit. Making this constant dumping even more stupid.

Did you not participate in this stupid dumping? Makes it you stupid as well in this case?
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August 10, 2014, 02:46:03 PM

I'm pretty sure only a very small % of the traders actually make profit.

Of course.

It's the exchanges who profit on every buy and sell.

The constant day-traders are the casino/midway rubes being played for suckers by showmen like P. T. Barnum Karpeles and his ilk.
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August 10, 2014, 02:59:48 PM


Explanation
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August 10, 2014, 03:14:01 PM

If there is one thing I have learnt about Bitcoin this year it is that no one has a clue what is going to happen with the price
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August 10, 2014, 03:23:44 PM

If there is one thing I have learnt about Bitcoin this year it is that no one has a clue what is going to happen with the price

Good lesson. Applicable outside of Bitcoin though.
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August 10, 2014, 03:24:18 PM

It does seem to be a bit of a random walk. Speaking of random, been in Vegas this week, lost a total of $400 at the craps tables playing dont come/don't pass. Technically that should be the best odds in Vegas (very close to 50%), so I keep wondering why I tend to lose on trips (no the game can't be rigged as craps is self-biased).

I keep telling myself it is nothing but pure odds, then the girl on the other end of the table rolls a string of 4/10 points and blows my odds into the water. It is nothing but pure odds.....

C
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August 10, 2014, 03:27:12 PM

mehehehe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4hqfj-AiQY

^^
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August 10, 2014, 03:30:46 PM

ohh my

http://www.iflscience.com/technology/ibm-reveals-incredible-new-brain-inspired-chip

seriously, i cant wait for the day Intel, IBM & co will jump on bitcoin's train.. CCMFFFFF for ever and ever and everrrrrr Shocked
JorgeStolfi
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August 10, 2014, 03:31:45 PM

The point is that with bitcoin (in the endgame, when it is more stable and super user-friendly) they won't have to buy stocks, bonds etc. to get the same benefits that fiat delivers today.  
That is why a "business plan" is needed.  Obviously, the purchase power of bitcoin cannot keep growing 1000% per year forever.   When it stabilizes, will bitcoins appreciate more than stocks, or less than stocks? If more, no one will exchange their bitcoins for stock (so how would new companies start, and where will all the holders' revenue come from)?  If it starts growing less than stocks, then people will want to exchange their bitcoin hoards for stocks, and price will drop, maybe 90% or more, untill all the 21 million coins are in circulation.  Will this be the case, or will bitcoin appreciate just as much as bonds and stocks? The "business plan" would have to pick one aleternative and show that it is consistent with teh rest of the model.

Quote
However there are fees associated with moving in and out of bonds, stocks etc. .   If you want to buy and sell bitcoin on an exchange now, there are also fees associated with it, but when more people use it for buying their pizza, paying out salaries etc., this won't be the case.  
Depending on the date of the "endgame" and the guessed price of bitcoin then, mining may not be enough to sustain the network, so the transaction fees will be mandatory.  The "business plan"  would have to guess the transaction volume, pick a percentage for the fees, and specify the difficulty level that matches that.  (Depending on the fee structure, paying a pizza with bitcoin may or may not make sense.)

One complication is that there may be banks and/or credit card companies offering payment services in bitcoin, possibly with smaller fees (being centralized, their porcessing costs would be much smaller than bitcoin's) and/or other advantages (like lending, cancellation, insurance, etc.)  But payments made through them will normally be accounted in their internal ledgers, not in their blockchain (like, as of now, most dollar payments made through banks do not involve dollar bills).  Those intrabank payments will not pay bitcoin transaction fees.  So, in order to establish the bitcoin demand and fees, the business plan would have to identify the fraction of payments that will be made through the blockchain, and may have to pay higher fees than bank transfers.

I know that all these issues have been extensively discussed, but I have only seen them addressed one at a time, and I wonder whether the "solutions" that have been presented for them in isolation are compatible with each other.  (For example, I recall one famous advocate claiming that people would pay coffee and groceries with a blockchain app on their cellphones, while another claimed that bitcoin would be used only for expensive items like cars or real estate, another wrote that it would be used only for transactions that need to be hidden, and yet another that it would be used only for inter-bank settlements...)
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