Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[solex]

I keep coming back to that breakout because it is pretty much the only major event since last October for which I do not know of a cause that would justify the traders's sudden change of mood. (There was one other surge this year, Mar/03 IIRC, I never found a convincing explanantion for.)

This is the problem in your assessment. Traders do not drive the market, they ride it. Traders put the spikiness into the charts, but the real-world ecosystem fundamentals drive the long-term trend. The breakout in October was from fundamentals and is the reason for all the major moves.

Fiat is dead long-term. That is where technology is pointed and, despite everything that has happened in the world in the last few hundred years, technology has always gone forwards. This includes the replacement of CB money with cryptocurrency.  There is still some debate as to which crypto will be dominant, and you might prefer SweetnessAndLightFaircoin to prevail, but that unless one appears which is so good that it overcomes first-mover momentum: then Bitcoin is No.1 and will remain so.

Gavin has written a brilliant piece describing how Bitcoin can soon scale up to VISA-like size. The writing is on the wall for the legacy systems. The mega-trend remains UP.
https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/e20c3b5a1d4b97f79ac2

[BBmodBB]

anyone remember mtgox?

anyone remember magic the gathering?   

[molecular]

Gavin has written a brilliant piece describing how Bitcoin can soon scale up to VISA-like size. The writing is on the wall for the legacy systems. The mega-trend remains UP.
https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/e20c3b5a1d4b97f79ac2

Thanks a ton for that link! There was a short discussion in the "gold collapsing" thread about block propagation and invertible bloom lookup tables (triggered by gavins slightly mysterious tweet) that raised questions. This piece (indeed well-written) answers most of them. That IBLT is an amazing data structure, btw.

Still kind-of open question for me (also touched on in that gist): what does this do to incentives?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[solex]

Gavin has written a brilliant piece describing how Bitcoin can soon scale up to VISA-like size. The writing is on the wall for the legacy systems. The mega-trend remains UP.
https://gist.github.com/gavinandresen/e20c3b5a1d4b97f79ac2

Thanks a ton for that link! There was a short discussion in the "gold collapsing" thread about block propagation and invertible bloom lookup tables (triggered by gavins slightly mysterious tweet) that raised questions. This piece (indeed well-written) answers most of them. That IBLT is an amazing data structure, btw.

Still kind-of open question for me (also touched on in that gist): what does this do to incentives?

Yes. I was really pleased to see his write-up!
I think the incentives are much improved. The use of IBLT blocks means that miners which hide transactions (like double-spends) are disincentivized to do that because if they publish an IBLT they are relying on the rest of the network having all the transactions in their own mempool and not having to look for missing ones. IBLT blocks which have the best propagated transactions are most likely to win the race to get accepted and built upon. It is a win-win paradigm improvement.

[Peter R]

Still kind-of open question for me (also touched on in that gist): what does this do to incentives?

Yes. I was really pleased to see his write-up!
I think the incentives are much improved. The use of IBLT blocks means that miners which hide transactions (like double-spends) are disincentivized to do that because if they publish an IBLT they are relying on the rest of the network having all the transactions in their own mempool and not having to look for missing ones. IBLT blocks which have the best propagated transactions are most likely to win the race to get accepted and built upon. It is a win-win paradigm improvement.

When I read his tweet, I was concerned that O(1) block propagation would drop transaction fees too low and allow the blockchain to fill up with spam.

After reading this new write-up, I see the IBLT proposal not only improves TPS throughput, but also improves incentives.  It takes some power away from centralized miners and returns it to the nodes!  If you are anti-social and try to propagate blocks full of weird transactions that the network doesn't know about or that were dropped due to insufficient fees, then there's a better chance your block gets orphaned and you lose the coinbase reward.  

[byronbb]

Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily. 

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.

hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

If this is true then the next bubble will be incredible.

[BitChick]

Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily. 

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.

hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

If this is true then the next bubble will be incredible.

Like.   

[hdbuck]

Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily.  

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.

hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

If this is true then the next bubble will be incredible.

It is likely true. Who do you think bitfury or KNC deals with? the public price on exchanges are just so easy to manipulate just with 1/100 of what they mine daily. a little "networking" and you are the king of the public price. We are just hopeless sheeps and this is why the mining industry is the #1 bitcoin industry, surclassing finance etc..

The good part is that it is set to succeed, just squeezing each tear of profit before lightning up the next canddle

edit: cant wait for Intel to put their hands on bitcoin.. ^^

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily.  

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.

hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

If this is true then the next bubble will be incredible.

It is likely true. Who do you think bitfury or KNC deals with? the public price on exchanges are just so easy to manipulate just with 1/100 of what they mine daily. a little "networking" and you are the king of the public price. We are just hopeless sheeps and this is why the mining industry is the #1 bitcoin industry, surclassing finance etc..

The good part is that it is set to succeed, just squeezing each tear of profit before lightning up the next canddle

edit: cant wait for Intel to put their hands on bitcoin.. ^^

However, don't we really want to do something about this problem.... I mean sooner or later, some people should be getting mad about this downward price manipulation b/c  there exists so much behind the scene's trading that is NOT reflecting the true price and/or value of BTC...   I do understand that in this case, sooner or later, the matter is going to come to bite them in the butt... when we should be getting these big ass green candles... at least that should be the end result of this particular ongoing market manipulation.

[hdbuck]

Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily.  

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.

hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

If this is true then the next bubble will be incredible.

It is likely true. Who do you think bitfury or KNC deals with? the public price on exchanges are just so easy to manipulate just with 1/100 of what they mine daily. a little "networking" and you are the king of the public price. We are just hopeless sheeps and this is why the mining industry is the #1 bitcoin industry, surclassing finance etc..

The good part is that it is set to succeed, just squeezing each tear of profit before lightning up the next canddle

edit: cant wait for Intel to put their hands on bitcoin.. ^^

However, don't we really want to do something about this problem....

No we dont, since it is meant to succeed. And we are still pioneer.

I mean sooner or later, some people should be getting mad about this downward price manipulation b/c  there exists so much behind the scene's trading that is NOT reflecting the true price and/or value of BTC...  

Yes because they dont get the big picture: it is meant to succeed. But people that can control, will always control. it's the deal that comes with Bitcoin's technology to be working: computing Power. Miners are the new wall street. And they are going to be the new people on top of the world.

I do understand that in this case, sooner or later, the matter is going to come to bite them in the butt... when we should be getting these big ass green candles... at least that should be the end result of this particular ongoing market manipulation.

Now that would be too easy. They already got enough attention. FFS its barely been 4 years and Bitcoin is buzzing all around.. No need to rush it up, they know bitcoin will be there for long, they are making sure of it actually.. better letting it boiling up a little more..

remember we will have to hit the $2500-5000s on the next bubble..

[JayJuanGee]

Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily.  

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.

hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

If this is true then the next bubble will be incredible.

It is likely true. Who do you think bitfury or KNC deals with? the public price on exchanges are just so easy to manipulate just with 1/100 of what they mine daily. a little "networking" and you are the king of the public price. We are just hopeless sheeps and this is why the mining industry is the #1 bitcoin industry, surclassing finance etc..

The good part is that it is set to succeed, just squeezing each tear of profit before lightning up the next canddle

edit: cant wait for Intel to put their hands on bitcoin.. ^^

However, don't we really want to do something about this problem....

No we dont, since it is meant to succeed. We are pioneer.

I mean sooner or later, some people should be getting mad about this downward price manipulation b/c  there exists so much behind the scene's trading that is NOT reflecting the true price and/or value of BTC...  

Yes because they dont get the big picture, it is meant to succeed. But people that can control, will always control. it's the deal that comes with Bitcoin's technology to be working: computing Power. Miners are the new wall street. And they are going to be the new people on top of the world.

I do understand that in this case, sooner or later, the matter is going to come to bite them in the butt... when we should be getting these big ass green candles... at least that should be the end result of this particular ongoing market manipulation.

Now that would be too easy. They already got enough attention. No need to rush it up, they know bitcoin will be there for long, they are making sure of it actually.. better letting it boiling up a little more..

remember we will have to hit the $2500-5000s on the next bubble..

Thanks for your response... what you said makes sense and seems to be a fairly accurate assessment of the behind-the-scenes forces/dynamics.

Actually, I did NOT expect you to answer the various concerns of my above post b/c I thought that you had been ignoring me, for about the last four months... he he he...       

[hdbuck]

Minor technicality:  I would NOT call 3,600 BTC daily as almost 4k BTC daily.  

I am inclined to think that the overwhelming majority of mined coins move exactly once, at this point.  I should check.  If I am right it is indicative of price suppression on the exchanges to get good marks for buying virgin coin on contract.  Which in turn is indicative of a massive bubble imminent.  But I haven't checked yet.

hey, cool! that would indeed be a good indication of the hypothesis (miners sell directly) being correct!

do you have the means to check this? If so I would like to kindly ask you to do so.

Ive mentioned it a couple of times on the forum already today, but I have it through very good sources that the majority of large miner coins that are being sold are being sold off exchange for a point or two premium by hedge funds.

A large miner recently confirmed that he had had several calls put into him by hedge funds looking to buy every coin he had. If they are tracking him down, their tracking others down as well. I think this is one of the reason selling has practically dried up relative to what it used to be. Big money is desperate not to have the price run up.

If this is true then the next bubble will be incredible.

It is likely true. Who do you think bitfury or KNC deals with? the public price on exchanges are just so easy to manipulate just with 1/100 of what they mine daily. a little "networking" and you are the king of the public price. We are just hopeless sheeps and this is why the mining industry is the #1 bitcoin industry, surclassing finance etc..

The good part is that it is set to succeed, just squeezing each tear of profit before lightning up the next canddle

edit: cant wait for Intel to put their hands on bitcoin.. ^^

However, don't we really want to do something about this problem....

No we dont, since it is meant to succeed. We are pioneer.

I mean sooner or later, some people should be getting mad about this downward price manipulation b/c  there exists so much behind the scene's trading that is NOT reflecting the true price and/or value of BTC...  

Yes because they dont get the big picture, it is meant to succeed. But people that can control, will always control. it's the deal that comes with Bitcoin's technology to be working: computing Power. Miners are the new wall street. And they are going to be the new people on top of the world.

I do understand that in this case, sooner or later, the matter is going to come to bite them in the butt... when we should be getting these big ass green candles... at least that should be the end result of this particular ongoing market manipulation.

Now that would be too easy. They already got enough attention. No need to rush it up, they know bitcoin will be there for long, they are making sure of it actually.. better letting it boiling up a little more..

remember we will have to hit the $2500-5000s on the next bubble..

Thanks for your response... what you said makes sense and seems to be a fairly accurate assessment of the behind-the-scenes forces/dynamics.
Actually, I did NOT expect you to answer the various concerns of my above post b/c I thought that you had been ignoring me, for about the last four months... he he he...      

Meheh I sometime check on where your understanding of bitcoin is at. And i am not against exposing you my understanding of bitcoin when a see a windows to express it without chocking you somehow.

Anyway, back on ignore.

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks for your response... what you said makes sense and seems to be a fairly accurate assessment of the behind-the-scenes forces/dynamics.
Actually, I did NOT expect you to answer the various concerns of my above post b/c I thought that you had been ignoring me, for about the last four months... he he he...       

Meheh I sometime check on where your understanding of bitcoin is at. And i am not against exposing you my understanding of bitcoin when a see a windows to express it without chocking you somehow.

Anyway, back on ignore.

WTVR.....   Talk with you again in 4-6 months when BTC prices will be a chockzing $765 or hopefully greater.            

[hdbuck]

Thanks for your response... what you said makes sense and seems to be a fairly accurate assessment of the behind-the-scenes forces/dynamics.
Actually, I did NOT expect you to answer the various concerns of my above post b/c I thought that you had been ignoring me, for about the last four months... he he he...       

Meheh I sometime check on where your understanding of bitcoin is at. And i am not against exposing you my understanding of bitcoin when a see a windows to express it without chocking you somehow.

Anyway, back on ignore.

WTVR.....   Talk with you again in 4-6 months when BTC prices will be a chockzing $765 or hopefully greater.           

yea, patience patience young padawan 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

Who wrote chartbuddy?  I'd like to have a small discussion with them... 

[empowering]

When my train pulls in - http://youtu.be/qyaHoCaS9W0

Some awesome blues : )

"I'll be ready now. I'll be ready when my train pulls in."