Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kireinaha]

Derp Derp Now we're only $20 lower than we were 24 hours ago! Bitcoin is going up! Who has the bottle of champagne? Deeeerp

This place cracks me up.

It's time to post rockets.



Next one will go up after we had gone down to 480. It will be the 500 rocket.

As Lance Armstrong might say, "This is one small rise for bitcoin, but one giant downtrend for cryptocurrency."

[JayJuanGee]

IMHO it's 2011 all over again, the downtrend will continue ,
with a few bumps here and there

Good news is not enough any more to fuel the rise,
people who want to get into BTC still think it's expensive

They can buy in fractions of a coin... dah??   You know deep down that these dumb fucks are NOT going to buy NO matter what the price between $1 and $550.... they are NOT convinced, and if they price is going down, they are NOT gonna be convinced.

On the other hand, they are NOT gonna think that BTC is too expensive when it is in the $850-$2500 range b/c then a lot of people are going to be buying out of fear that they will miss the train (that they already missed when they failed to buy between $550 and  $850. 

That is just the way... of these kinds of paradigm shifting innovations... such as BTC.. they do NOT recognize the value, until the price is skyrocketing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wachtwoord]

Whatever is happening we seem to be having volume.

Good volume compared to the last few weeks, but still less than in the gold bubble times.

But it is a start anyway

Go back and look at the daily volume at the start of the growth spurts.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Sorry man, I went to bed shortly after this post. but... Take a look at the mining pool chart, all big miners are pools, that pay out individuals, so they would not be able to buy those coins. The biggest private pool mines less the 20% of the coins. That is the biggest chunk

OTC trades for large amounts of clean/virgin coins would be at an hefty premium I guess. Enough for pool owners to trade their virgin coins for cheaper used coins on an exchange. But it was just a guess.
Any other idea on who and why is dumping is welcome.

[seljo]

I can't even distinguish between fonzie and fonsie anymore.

Neither do I... got them both on ignore

[Brewins]

Whatever is happening we seem to be having volume.

Good volume compared to the last few weeks, but still less than in the gold bubble times.

But it is a start anyway

Go back and look at the daily volume at the start of the growth spurts.

Did it and I saw a 2000 red dildo on volume for today.


When I scroll left, from decenber to march,  I see the biggest dildo around 13k, and lots of 4k+ dildos
So we still with less volume than in the bubble period.

[JorgeStolfi]

And once again, the only winner here is the US government, for offloading all those Silk Road coins on that poor schmuck. I'm sure a lot of bidders from June are thanking their lucky stars right now that their bids were defeated.

we don't know for how much the coins went...

True, but is was widely speculated that they went for approximate market price or slightly over.
I think ~600,00$ was a pretty reasonable guess.

Well, it has been widely speculated that the Earth was flat and the Sun traveled around it.    

It seems likely that the price Draper paid was somewhat below market (574--590$ on Bitstamp, Jun/27, 06:00--18:00), partly because it would be a rational bid, but mostly because if he had paid at or above market he would probably have said so, to support the price.  Said another way, one possible explanation for why he and Siebert refused to reveal their bids is that the price they offered would have been "bad news" for the market.

As for the other end of the range, we have only one bid that was revealed, in the low 400s.

So, it could be anything between those two numbers.  My guess is that it was between 500$ and 550$.  It would have given him a 10--20% profit, if he sold at market in the following weeks.

[wachtwoord]

Whatever is happening we seem to be having volume.

Good volume compared to the last few weeks, but still less than in the gold bubble times.

But it is a start anyway

Go back and look at the daily volume at the start of the growth spurts.

Did it and I saw a 2000 red dildo on volume for today.


When I scroll left, from decenber to march,  I see the biggest dildo around 13k, and lots of 4k+ dildos
So we still with less volume than in the bubble period.

October 4 until October 13 are lower than today (by quite a bit). October 14 to 18 are comparable. Then there are some larger spikes but also times with lower volume during the entire spike upwards.

[wachtwoord]

And once again, the only winner here is the US government, for offloading all those Silk Road coins on that poor schmuck. I'm sure a lot of bidders from June are thanking their lucky stars right now that their bids were defeated.

we don't know for how much the coins went...

True, but is was widely speculated that they went for approximate market price or slightly over.
I think ~600,00$ was a pretty reasonable guess.

Well, it has been widely speculated that the Earth was flat and the Sun traveled around it.    

It seems likely that the price Draper paid was somewhat below market (574--590$ on Bitstamp, Jun/27, 06:00--18:00), partly because it would be a rational bid, but mostly because if he had paid at or above market he would probably have said so, to support the price.  Said another way, one possible explanation for why he and Siebert refused to reveal their bids is that the price they offered would have been "bad news" for the market.

As for the other end of the range, we have only one bid that was revealed, in the low 400s.

So, it could be anything between those two numbers.  My guess is that it was between 500$ and 550$.  It would have given him a 10--20% profit, if he sold at market in the following weeks.

Do you understand the concept of lying?

[mmitech]

And once again, the only winner here is the US government, for offloading all those Silk Road coins on that poor schmuck. I'm sure a lot of bidders from June are thanking their lucky stars right now that their bids were defeated.

we don't know for how much the coins went...

True, but is was widely speculated that they went for approximate market price or slightly over.
I think ~600,00$ was a pretty reasonable guess.

Well, it has been widely speculated that the Earth was flat and the Sun traveled around it.    

It seems likely that the price Draper paid was somewhat below market (574--590$ on Bitstamp, Jun/27, 06:00--18:00), partly because it would be a rational bid, but mostly because if he had paid at or above market he would probably have said so, to support the price.  Said another way, one possible explanation for why he and Siebert refused to reveal their bids is that the price they offered would have been "bad news" for the market.

As for the other end of the range, we have only one bid that was revealed, in the low 400s.

So, it could be anything between those two numbers.  My guess is that it was between 500$ and 550$.  It would have given him a 10--20% profit, if he sold at market in the following weeks.

even $500-550 seems too expensive if you ask me, selling 30K BTC in this weak market would bring as back to $300 right away, but even buying that much would take us beyond $700, and we both know that big trades happens off exchanges which make your explanation logical and closer to what have happened.

[wachtwoord]

And once again, the only winner here is the US government, for offloading all those Silk Road coins on that poor schmuck. I'm sure a lot of bidders from June are thanking their lucky stars right now that their bids were defeated.

we don't know for how much the coins went...

True, but is was widely speculated that they went for approximate market price or slightly over.
I think ~600,00$ was a pretty reasonable guess.

Well, it has been widely speculated that the Earth was flat and the Sun traveled around it.    

It seems likely that the price Draper paid was somewhat below market (574--590$ on Bitstamp, Jun/27, 06:00--18:00), partly because it would be a rational bid, but mostly because if he had paid at or above market he would probably have said so, to support the price.  Said another way, one possible explanation for why he and Siebert refused to reveal their bids is that the price they offered would have been "bad news" for the market.

As for the other end of the range, we have only one bid that was revealed, in the low 400s.

So, it could be anything between those two numbers.  My guess is that it was between 500$ and 550$.  It would have given him a 10--20% profit, if he sold at market in the following weeks.

even $500-550 seems too expensive if you ask me, selling 30K BTC in this weak market would bring as back to $300 right away, but even buying that much would take us beyond $700, and we both know that big trades happens off exchanges which make your explanation logical and closer to what have happened.

So how do you think this $1.6M purchase in Bitcoins with Bitpay influenced the market? www.siliconbeat.com/2014/08/12/tech-entrepreneur-pays-1-6-million-in-bitcoins-for-tahoe-parcel/

[NotLambchop]

... but mostly because if he had paid at or above market he would probably have said so, to support the price.  Said another way, one possible explanation for why he and Siebert refused to reveal their bids is that the price they offered would have been "bad news" for the market.
...

Do you understand the concept of lying?

Not sure how lying factors into this.  Explain?

[hyphymikey]

Sorry man, I went to bed shortly after this post. but... Take a look at the mining pool chart, all big miners are pools, that pay out individuals, so they would not be able to buy those coins. The biggest private pool mines less the 20% of the coins. That is the biggest chunk

OTC trades for large amounts of clean/virgin coins would be at an hefty premium I guess. Enough for pool owners to trade their virgin coins for cheaper used coins on an exchange. But it was just a guess.
Any other idea on who and why is dumping is welcome.

Besides the sellers themselves I doubt anyone around here knows exactly why they do it.

Get cheaper coins through panic
Coin mixing through exchanges
Altcoin preminers taking profit
Stolen coins constantly being sold
GABI trying to achieve a low base
T/A whales trying to paint capitulation to start a new bubble
Exchanges selling fees and buying some back cheaper
Attempt at a long squeeze
Whales giving up and taking profits
Wall street trying to fuck over traders
Dump once a month to buy OTC cheaper

Unless you are the dumper, or the exchange operator and can see who is doing what, we will likely never know. The fundamentals haven't changed, so the only thing I know with a strong chance of being true is that they are doing it to profit, not because "bitcoin is dead"

[mmitech]

So how do you think this $1.6M purchase in Bitcoins with Bitpay influenced the market? www.siliconbeat.com/2014/08/12/tech-entrepreneur-pays-1-6-million-in-bitcoins-for-tahoe-parcel/

it really all depend on how Bitpay process these transaction and on how you set your Bitpay account, usually most merchants needs cash in order to operate normally so they converts 100% of the transaction to fiat, but there is who set their accounts to keep a percentage of any transaction in Bitcoin, so the owner of this estate could cash a small percent and held the rest in Bitcoin ?

I really don't know how Bitpay/coinbase process their transactions, it would be interesting to know about that.   

[hyphymikey]

So how do you think this $1.6M purchase in Bitcoins with Bitpay influenced the market? www.siliconbeat.com/2014/08/12/tech-entrepreneur-pays-1-6-million-in-bitcoins-for-tahoe-parcel/

it really all depend on how Bitpay process these transaction and on how you set your Bitpay account, usually most merchants needs cash in order to operate normally so they converts 100% of the transaction to fiat, but there is who set their accounts to keep a percentage of any transaction in Bitcoin, so the owner of this estate could cash a small percent and held the rest in Bitcoin ?

I really don't know how Bitpay/coinbase process their transactions, it would be interesting to know about that.  

I have a bitpay account, and yes you can set the % of what you want to keep in BTC and the rest is converted to fiat. The percent you keep in BTC gets sent to an address you specify, you cannot sell them later through bitpay though. I am not sure if Coinbase is the same but I'm not sure why they wouldn't have this feature.

[razorramon]

panic sell and rebuy did cost me 5€ today...
now i'll just hodl and enjoy the ride...

[wachtwoord]

... but mostly because if he had paid at or above market he would probably have said so, to support the price.  Said another way, one possible explanation for why he and Siebert refused to reveal their bids is that the price they offered would have been "bad news" for the market.
...

Do you understand the concept of lying?

Not sure how lying factors into this.  Explain?

You say he didn't pay above market because if he did he would say so to push up the price. And I'm saying even if he paid less he could just claim he overpaid to achieve the same thing.

[samsonn25]

Sorry man, I went to bed shortly after this post. but... Take a look at the mining pool chart, all big miners are pools, that pay out individuals, so they would not be able to buy those coins. The biggest private pool mines less the 20% of the coins. That is the biggest chunk

OTC trades for large amounts of clean/virgin coins would be at an hefty premium I guess. Enough for pool owners to trade their virgin coins for cheaper used coins on an exchange. But it was just a guess.
Any other idea on who and why is dumping is welcome.

Besides the sellers themselves I doubt anyone around here knows exactly why they do it.

Get cheaper coins through panic
Coin mixing through exchanges
Altcoin preminers taking profit
Stolen coins constantly being sold
GABI trying to achieve a low base
T/A whales trying to paint capitulation to start a new bubble
Exchanges selling fees and buying some back cheaper
Attempt at a long squeeze
Whales giving up and taking profits
Wall street trying to fuck over traders
Dump once a month to buy OTC cheaper

Unless you are the dumper, or the exchange operator and can see who is doing what, we will likely never know. The fundamentals haven't changed, so the only thing I know with a strong chance of being true is that they are doing it to profit, not because "bitcoin is dead"

Bitcoin is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.  bottom line

Maybe someday in the future it is worth 10000 usd, maybe 10.

It wasn't so long ago someone used 10000 btc for 2 large Papa Johns pizzas

[Richy_T]

Of course we have volume now compared to the last few weeks; everyone is running for the exits! I don't think that's the type of volume most people here have been waiting for, no matter how the bulls try to twist it...

Just shaking out the weak hands (That one is dedicated to Gloomskit).