Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Final capitulations are the sweetest buying opportunities. You would probably never have heard of me, unless I happened to analyze the fundamentals and charts for month, before buying in at the final capitulation of 2011.

The more ppl speak like you (and the less they speak like me  ) the better, because that much closer to the bottom we are.

But real tough guys can make the decision without sentiment analysis as well as with it. I hardly knew about the forums back then, even my account is from 2012.

It is the new money that will raise the price to new levels. They are still waiting. What can you do but wait? Next room to me now, there is a guy who takes jacuzzi every day and smokes cigars. He held through the bubble, and the fall, and the capitulation (of 2011) and ever since. His friends sold out in the downtrend and said they will come back if/when the tide turns. They never did. They are probably working now.

Bitcoin does not care if you make money or not. Also I don't care. I know there are enough people in the world who understand reasonable speech, and gravitate into Bitcoin in waves. And if bitcoin is foiled, now we have Monero, so there is a real backup, vainly sought after for 2-3 years.

The waiters came to ask what I want for breakfast, and roasted liver with red wine sounded like nice. Thank you for listening.

I like what you did there, pouring oil on fire  

I beg to disagree Casually dropping some info about your at-noon breakfast of roasted liver with wine, in the middle of a capitulation that'll cost quite a few investors dearly, is the real oil-on-fire. Which is why I got the Marie Antoinette association.

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

[magicmexican]

IMO we are a couple of months away from the bottom

I think its your position talking. If i were you i would spread your bids better, instead of "waiting till its confirmed train, then buyback"

[njcarlos]

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

Oh please. Do you know how many people he's hurt with his "decent data and/or historical perspective?" You do know he thought BTC would be at $10k back in late 2011/early 2012 right? And was actively promoting such stupidity?

[keithers]

Small little rebound going now.   Just need to build some momentum and get this thing going again...  Too much negativity going on right now...

[JayJuanGee]

Final capitulations are the sweetest buying opportunities. You would probably never have heard of me, unless I happened to analyze the fundamentals and charts for month, before buying in at the final capitulation of 2011.

The more ppl speak like you (and the less they speak like me  ) the better, because that much closer to the bottom we are.

But real tough guys can make the decision without sentiment analysis as well as with it. I hardly knew about the forums back then, even my account is from 2012.

It is the new money that will raise the price to new levels. They are still waiting. What can you do but wait? Next room to me now, there is a guy who takes jacuzzi every day and smokes cigars. He held through the bubble, and the fall, and the capitulation (of 2011) and ever since. His friends sold out in the downtrend and said they will come back if/when the tide turns. They never did. They are probably working now.

Bitcoin does not care if you make money or not. Also I don't care. I know there are enough people in the world who understand reasonable speech, and gravitate into Bitcoin in waves. And if bitcoin is foiled, now we have Monero, so there is a real backup, vainly sought after for 2-3 years.

The waiters came to ask what I want for breakfast, and roasted liver with red wine sounded like nice. Thank you for listening.

I like what you did there, pouring oil on fire  

I beg to disagree Casually dropping some info about your at-noon breakfast of roasted liver with wine, in the middle of a capitulation that'll cost quite a few investors dearly, is the real oil-on-fire. Which is why I got the Marie Antoinette association.

which fits my theory better...

Your "theory", if you have such, is merely spouting off a bunch of self-aggrandizing non-sense.

[tarmi]

IMO we are a couple of months away from the bottom

I think its your position talking. If i were you i would spread your bids better, instead of "waiting till its confirmed train, then buyback"

no, I think he is right (this time). we only breached 500, the bottom is yet to be found.

this is a rebound, nothing else.

[BitChick]

Final capitulations are the sweetest buying opportunities. You would probably never have heard of me, unless I happened to analyze the fundamentals and charts for month, before buying in at the final capitulation of 2011.

The more ppl speak like you (and the less they speak like me  ) the better, because that much closer to the bottom we are.

But real tough guys can make the decision without sentiment analysis as well as with it. I hardly knew about the forums back then, even my account is from 2012.

It is the new money that will raise the price to new levels. They are still waiting. What can you do but wait? Next room to me now, there is a guy who takes jacuzzi every day and smokes cigars. He held through the bubble, and the fall, and the capitulation (of 2011) and ever since. His friends sold out in the downtrend and said they will come back if/when the tide turns. They never did. They are probably working now.

Bitcoin does not care if you make money or not. Also I don't care. I know there are enough people in the world who understand reasonable speech, and gravitate into Bitcoin in waves. And if bitcoin is foiled, now we have Monero, so there is a real backup, vainly sought after for 2-3 years.

The waiters came to ask what I want for breakfast, and roasted liver with red wine sounded like nice. Thank you for listening.

I like what you did there, pouring oil on fire  

I beg to disagree Casually dropping some info about your at-noon breakfast of roasted liver with wine, in the middle of a capitulation that'll cost quite a few investors dearly, is the real oil-on-fire. Which is why I got the Marie Antoinette association.

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

I think Risto's point is that we can all "eat cake" too is we just hold and don't panic (or buy during this great opportunities to do so if possible).

Maybe I am strange but I find his words quite comforting.  To be able to drink a glass of wine with no worries to what Bitcoin is doing at the present impressive, especially when it is so easy to get emotional about it.  But I am admittedly a huge fan of Risto.  Of all the people on the thread he has been the most helpful to me, and generous too.

[JayJuanGee]

some support here

perhaps 500 will hold?

I doubt that, it's being tested right now and bids are being pulled. And now it's broken...

Notice how the largest sells come in right at the 501 threshold.  But what am I saying, there couldn't possibly be manipulation going on.  Nooooo, not at all.  Nope.  None. At. All.  

STOP providing facts!!!!      Anti-manipulator theorists want to maintain their own reality.. so stop interfering with that... You YOU YOu ... manipulator. 

[magicmexican]

IMO we are a couple of months away from the bottom

I think its your position talking. If i were you i would spread your bids better, instead of "waiting till its confirmed train, then buyback"

no, I think he is right (this time). we only breached 500, the bottom is yet to be found.

this is a rebound, nothing else.

I didnt say that the bottom is in, i just dont think its "months away".

[X7]

^^ Heart bleeds for this guy right here.. sold at around 500

That's why he's playing with $30k and you're probably playing with <$5k. Foresight. And by foresight I mean more than 2 hours.

Your assumption that I am 'playing' with <$5k is miss guided - I don't feel the need to post how much I invest in crypto - To me it is also a lot more than a tool to get rich quick.

[johnwest]

IMO we are a couple of months away from the bottom

I think its your position talking. If i were you i would spread your bids better, instead of "waiting till its confirmed train, then buyback"

no, I think he is right (this time). we only breached 500, the bottom is yet to be found.

this is a rebound, nothing else.

Yes, no sign of bottom yet, this time we crashed below the 540 too quick and now not easy to find bottom.
We just have to wait some days then will see how market act around bottom.

[magicmexican]

IMO we are a couple of months away from the bottom

I think its your position talking. If i were you i would spread your bids better, instead of "waiting till its confirmed train, then buyback"

no, I think he is right (this time). we only breached 500, the bottom is yet to be found.

this is a rebound, nothing else.

Yes, no sign of bottom yet, this time we crashed below the 540 too quick and now not easy to find bottom.
We just have to wait some days then will see how market act around bottom.

To be fair, a lot of people missed the last bottom (judging by the posts anyway), "not being convinced",

But my personal bet is 440-460$ this time

[JorgeStolfi]

So insiders dumped XRP for Bitcoin which ignited a bullrun in May...?

Maybe, or bought bitcoin with the intention of using them to buy Jed's XRP, expecting a surge in the BTC price for that.  But the only argument for that explanation is the rough coincidence of the two dates.

[Torque]

IMO we are a couple of months away from the bottom

I think its your position talking. If i were you i would spread your bids better, instead of "waiting till its confirmed train, then buyback"

no, I think he is right (this time). we only breached 500, the bottom is yet to be found.

this is a rebound, nothing else.

Yes, no sign of bottom yet, this time we crashed below the 540 too quick and now not easy to find bottom.
We just have to wait some days then will see how market act around bottom.

To be fair, a lot of people missed the last bottom (judging by the posts anyway), "not being convinced",

But my personal bet is 440-460$ this time

Keep in mind, the "real" bottom is always a good bit HIGHER than what the bears think is the bottom or have in their minds.  After the last capitulation and leveling to $420, many bears and sideline watchers got caught with their pants down.  Because they were not convinced and kept saying "$200-250 bottom is a sure thing."  

[JayJuanGee]

We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.

What a jerk!  NOT b/c you traded but b/c you engaged in deceptive tactics...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mmitech]

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

Oh please. Do you know how many people he's hurt with his "decent data and/or historical perspective?" You do know he thought BTC would be at $10k back in late 2011/early 2012 right? And was actively promoting such stupidity?

nope he said that BTC would be at $100K in 2013 I remember that crystal clear, and only delusional noobs that couldn't reach anything in life believe's him and become totally blind because of that. I didn't see a single technical analyze that he claim to be good at... even the number of users/holders and adoption rate that he claim that he can calculate is pulled out of his ass, I would love to see him explaining where he gets the numbers from, I did math for a good part of my life so I am sure I would understand or at least try to 

[oda.krell]

Not really, huobi and okcoin have mostly fake volumes. Biggest platform are bitstamp&bitfinex then btcchina. Not saying that huobi and okcoin has to be ignored (we are adding them very soon ) but their volumes has to be taken as half fake.

I avoid calling it "fake" volume, but I agree. The current (daily) leg of the capitulation is, in my opinion, mainly driven by Bitfinex - not really a surprise, given the huge built-up leveraged long positions that Blitz highlighted in his post ages ago. Despite their daily volume still being dwarfed by the Chinese exchanges.

So that's further evidence for those of us who believe that, while CNY volume might be "real", it is simply less relevant, per dollar, being largely automated, zero fee volume.

In my view, China played a much larger role than you think recently. Prior to this downturn a couple days ago, it was them who were the only bullish ones, higher than all the others, and preventing the price from slipping repeatedly. It was the sudden weakness of Huobi with a lower price than others (I don't watch OKCoin) and its incredibly lackluster bids that have made this possible, as I see it.

Interesting observation. Didn't see it, but I'll try if I can find that view by looking at it myself.

Let me change my point a bit: by volume alone, China, and China alone should matter (cue Jorge). Bitfinex played a crucial role today. Bitstamp does as well (the mini recovery right now is mainly driven by stamp and finex, to my eyes).

So the old method, look at the highest volume exchange, and ignore all others, doesn't work anymore. Agreed with that statement?

[aminorex]

I think Risto's point is that we can all "eat cake" too is we just hold and don't panic (or buy during this great opportunities to do so if possible).

Maybe I am strange but I find his words quite comforting.  

This is a bit more harsh than I would like, but to be brutally honest, the strangest aspect of the dialogue here is the complete lack of self-awareness among those whose ressentiment betrays the weakness of their character, and hence the unlikeliness of their long-term success.  Generally such self-deluded conditions only end when the victim (i.e. the perpetrator) reaches a rock-bottom of desperation, in which the mind becomes more plastic and amenable to reform.

[fonsie]

We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.

What a jerk!  NOT b/c you traded but b/c you engaged in deceptive tactics...

That's what we bulls call a steer.