Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Did anybody notice the China sell off?



My current theory is that China's private credit engine/shadow banking sector has stalled. So Chinese Btc speculators have been forced to liquidate.

Any other views out there?  Thanks.

It's not persuasive. If shadow banking sector stalled, the Chinese security market wouldn't have had been so firm.

The crypto bulb popped, no fresh money coming in. Is it simple as that? I've got to hodl with my average cost high in the sky.

What's your average costs, approximately?  Mine is about $609 (atm), and yes average cost (being in the red or the black) does affect thinking and behavior...

No leverage, right? I think you gotta hang in there, buddy. You've taken the worst of it up to this point. Even if there is a flash crash that would happen at about 455/450 and we'd stabilize around 430. I doubt, at that point, they'd be able to continue hunting margins even lower than the low 400s range... there'd be too much buy pressure.

So, that's probably the worst case scenario. The best cast is we found a bottom and you didn't move in and out with the incidental costs/slippage that come with not knowing where the bottom is.

So yes, if no leverage, hold tough. If leveraged, maybe still... but that's rough.

I am NOT in the trading mode... but yep.. that seems a pretty solid suggestion for any person who may be in a similar situation... ... though I am prepared even if the situation is worse b/c I did NOT invest any more than I can afford to lose (or loose in modern wall parlance).

I do have some leverage, but it NOT a real big deal to me.. the leverage comes due in September 2015, and is the equivalent of about $20k.. ..   The fee was about $800 for that $20k... so I have pretty decent confidence that BTC prices will sufficiently go up for me to recover that $800  - yet I am financially prepared in the event that it does NOT... I am more than willing to take such a risk based on my view and calculation of the upside potential of BTC in its current overall posture...

[FattyMcButterpants]

this is very ugly. there are like... no buyers to be found anywhere. the bulls went on vacation for the summer..... hopefully. i'm just setting low flash crash bids at this point..... if there's a strong breakout to the upside, i'll jump in. but boy does this look ugly.

If you are doing Finex remember it is 10% from the trigger point. Normally, I'd say the trigger point is $451 which would bring you to about $406. However, with the margin maintenance adjusted and Finex being glitchy, it is tough to know exactly the trigger point. I picked a little above $415 and I may adjust it if we go within 10% of there without a flasher (flasher... sounds more fun than flash crash).

not just margin calls (and trying to estimate the trigger for a cascade is wild speculation imo), but flash crash generally. i'm looking more at $420 on other exchanges = hopefully sub-400 on bitfinex.

[JayJuanGee]

NOW, you are turning into a bear, Podyx?     

[JayJuanGee]

Wow current price actions seems to indicate we are going to revisit 440/430. I was not expecting that. I wonder how long the rise will be postponed because of this. If we aren't back above 500 by the end of the month I'll be out of Risto's contest.

They'll be a quick bounce back (especially if we hit a spot that is so far beyond a doubt a bottom). We have leverage and we have zealots -- of course they'll be a quick bounce back. Further, Coinbase is selling people coins at Friday's price... this means Coinbase thinks Friday's price is equal to or higher than the present price.

That's NOT true...

The truth is only if people exercised that stupid-ass offer that Coinbase made would they be locked into getting coins at Friday's price (at the same time that they had attempted to buy on Sunday).  HOWEVER, that same Coinbase customer, if they were NOT too stupid and if they had read the text, could cancel such a LOCK.. at any time prior to Friday... which would certainly be the smarter (less dumber) thing to do.

[falllling]

NOW, you are turning into a bear, Podyx?     

bitcoin game over!
people who listened to my advices to cut loose would have saved some $$$

[JayJuanGee]

Who hasn't cut his loose?

me. I use to go down with the ship since 2011 and always came back afloat richer. But I stay in crypto for other reasons too. 

And so how many coins do you have, more or less?  In what ballpark is your BTC stash?

[JayJuanGee]

Who hasn't cut his loose?

You mean losses? Who has losses anyway? 

It's quite impressive to be involved in continuously exponentially rising asset such as Bitcoin for more than a year and to manage NOT to be in the green.

Losses are only on paper unless and until you close them, especially when BTC prices are going to return to their previous upward glory and beyond.

[N12]

I like how all the altcoins scamcoins are getting obliterated.

[wachtwoord]

Who hasn't cut his loose?

me. I use to go down with the ship since 2011 and always came back afloat richer. But I stay in crypto for other reasons too. 

In the (extremely) unlikely event the ship will go down: so will I.

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder if my prediction of 460-450$ will hold

$450 is massive support. It has to have a major bounce there, even if it trends lower after that.

I think that 450 is not going to hold for a long time, hell I think even 400 is not going to hold if we continue this way, I am full fiat and waiting by the side for 2 weeks now, I think we are still far away from the bottom, I am not going to buy in the 400s range for sure.

FUCK>>>>> I thought that you bought some BTC, yesterday, just to support the cause or whatever BS language that you used?    So, NOW, you are saying that you lied?  or did you buy it and then sell it or you were ONLY thinking about buying it, but you changed your mind? 

That's part of the difficulty with you, I start to begin to like you, but you switch stories so often and contradictory that it becomes very difficult to like you.         

[elasticband]

Who hasn't cut his loose?

me. I use to go down with the ship since 2011 and always came back afloat richer. But I stay in crypto for other reasons too. 

In the (extremely) unlikely event the ship will go down: so will I.

all in after some down swing trading

[elasticband]

lol @ wall on btc-e

[elasticband]

lol @ wall on btc-e

and it's gone

[JayJuanGee]

I am not going to buy in the 400s range for sure.

This could be a mistake, you should consider buying some % in low 400's

Try to talk sense into him at your own peril...     

[Phillis]

looks like btc-e got hit with margin hunting

[magicmexican]

btc-e 330$ sholy shit

[N12]

The next liquidation cascade it seems.

[lemonte]

btc-e 330$ sholy shit

    

[magicmexican]

Here we go boys, to the single digits, strapon for the ride

[JayJuanGee]

Who are these crazy bastards buying right now. I mean, it's generally a good price and all... but you don't know where this is going, yet. Ballsy, ballsy people.

Much more ballsy to sell at this time than it would be to buy at this time.  My finger was on the trigger to buy another couple BTC, but the price missed my buy point by a couple of dollars... I am waiting it out a little bit.. but I may just get anxious and buy my allotted amount - just for shits and giggles.

Ahhh... this I understand. If I took this much of the ride I certainly wouldn't be selling at this point even if I don't know what's up or down anymore. BUT, I don't understand people shooting their entire load at this price. I'd scatter a few bids so that I get this price, but I still have some ammo should the price drop (which keeps your average price in check). That would be my play... if I wasn't a degenerate gambler going more or less all or nothing on a short... unfortunately, I am a degenerate gambler.

Which, by the way, reminds me of when I was at the race track a couple months ago with my father... who is the definition of a compulsive gambler. They were watching the horses and then there was an intermission between the races. So he and a buddy of his saw two roaches running across the floor. Without hesitation, they both took to gambling on the roaches... my father was yelling, "C'mon roachie!!!"

More or less, that's my modus operandi. But the scatter bid play should work really well.

I definitely play some variation of the scattered bid scenario... but sometimes I get too anxious and buy more than I should, but most times I have some fiat ($1k or so.. just waiting to be able to take advantage of lower prices .. and hopefully bring down my average cost per BTC, sooner or later... ).