Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

What is there to believe or not believe in?  You want to make it sound like a religion.
Study it hard enough and you'll realise that it all boils down to cryptography, economics, applied game theory, information theory and lots of mathematics. Either you get it or you don't. Money is a value information technology, not voodoo. Abstracting the analysis away from your politics and emotions is the most difficult part. Begin at the beginning.

Come on!  The difference between economics and religion is that religion states very clearly what you are required to believe without proof. 

The eventual success of bitcoin depends also a lot on psychology, sociology, businesses, and politics.  People have different probabilities for future events in those areas.  What is your probability that the US government will ban bitcoin?  That Monero will supplant Bitcoin?  That the largest miners will form a cartel and ruin bitcoin to maximize their short-term gain?  That PayPal will switch to Dgecoin?  That the Chinese traders, whose mood currently defines the market price of bitcoin, will get bored and dump all their holdings tomorrow?

For many believers, bitcoin certainly has become a religion, in the most literal sense.   (People in this thread are relatively pragmatic, but what I have read in some other threads is far beyond voodoo..)

[JorgeStolfi]

So on which forums are you relentlessly warning people off "investing" in Brazilian Reals? As far as I can tell they are bigger and worse "scam" than bitcoin, by your own logic.

I have been advocating also for safe electronic voting for 14 years now.

No one that I know invests in Brazlian Reals.  Or dollars, or euros.

Is that why you folks think that bitcoin is such a great investment --- because you are comparing it to "investing" in cash?

[Sandia]

Okay this constant dumping makes no fucking sense...

1.5k wall, fucking disgusting...

4k at Bfx (750 + 3250) near 475.

Edit: price tanked, 750 wall moved to 470, eaten down to 555, pulled.

[lyth0s]

I remembered I saw somewhere before that monitoring the increase in the number of bitcoin wallets is not a good metric to measure the rate of bitcoin adoption. But I cannot remember why that is so. Does anyone know?

Well in general monitor addresses isn't that useful as the more people are educated about not reusing addresses and they start using change addresses it doesn't really tell you much.

As far as wallets go, a single person can create 10 wallets on blockchain.info, the metric goes up but really there doesn't have to be any new interest for that metric to go up.

I personally think number of transactions (excluding popular addresses such as satoshi dice or pool payouts) is a better metric https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Speaking of number of transactions....have you noticed that each "bitcoin boom" (as I like to call them) starts when the number of transactions reaches the previous bubble's?

[mooncake]

Fun to watch. Cheap coins! 

[justusranvier]

For many believers, bitcoin certainly has become a religion, in the most literal sense.   (People in this thread are relatively pragmatic, but what I have read in some other threads is far beyond voodoo..)

Bitcoin is not a religion - it is an insurrection.

Bitcoin's job is to make governments impossible to fund themselves - if you're a public sector employee then all of us in Bitcoin are working to imperil your paycheck and pension.

[mooncake]

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

[mooncake]

I remembered I saw somewhere before that monitoring the increase in the number of bitcoin wallets is not a good metric to measure the rate of bitcoin adoption. But I cannot remember why that is so. Does anyone know?

Well in general monitor addresses isn't that useful as the more people are educated about not reusing addresses and they start using change addresses it doesn't really tell you much.

As far as wallets go, a single person can create 10 wallets on blockchain.info, the metric goes up but really there doesn't have to be any new interest for that metric to go up.

I personally think number of transactions (excluding popular addresses such as satoshi dice or pool payouts) is a better metric https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Speaking of number of transactions....have you noticed that each "bitcoin boom" (as I like to call them) starts when the number of transactions reaches the previous bubble's?

I didn't know a single person can create 10 wallets. To be more precise, I suppose you mean account rather than person? I don't see the reason of having multiple wallets though. Multiple addresses I can understand but not multiple wallets.

I can see the number of transactions is increasing. To the moon!

[Sandia]

Bitstamp wall gone. Bfx 3200 coin wall still intact.  Very odd.

[Bagatell]

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

About 6000 coins in a coordinated dump on four exchanges. Who has that many coins to play with? Qui bono?

[fonzie]

Silkroad 2.0 coins entering the market? 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=779061.0

http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/

[hmmmstrange]

For many believers, bitcoin certainly has become a religion, in the most literal sense.   (People in this thread are relatively pragmatic, but what I have read in some other threads is far beyond voodoo..)

Bitcoin is not a religion - it is an insurrection.

Bitcoin's job is to make governments impossible to fund themselves - if you're a public sector employee then all of us in Bitcoin are working to imperil your paycheck and pension.

Pretty sure Jorge is smart enough to know he's not going to have much of a pension.

[mooncake]

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

About 6000 coins in a coordinated dump on four exchanges. Who has that many coins to play with? Qui bono?

Coindesk, Cointelegraph, Cryptocoinsnews whatever, go do your job. Find out from exchange owners who are dumping!

[Sandia]

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

About 6000 coins in a coordinated dump on four exchanges. Who has that many coins to play with? Qui bono?

Unless something else happens, they only gained a max of 2% on the exercise.

It might turn into a bit of a bear trap. 259 shorts opened just as the price bounced back up.

[inca]

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

About 6000 coins in a coordinated dump on four exchanges. Who has that many coins to play with? Qui bono?

No manipulation here. It's a perfectly natural way to sell for best price with no slippage to perform synchronised large sells into thin order books.

Very unlikely to be a miner or sophisticated seller. Perhaps a hedge fund or malicious actor..

[JorgeStolfi]

1. Most of your time is spent in Speculation. Almost none of it is spent in the more technical sub-forums. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=183158;sa=statPanel Am I really supposed to believe this answer?

2. So you want to save grown adults from their own choices and you think the Speculation sub-forum is the best location to achieve this? Even if Bitcoin was a scam, it would be small potatoes compared to the amount of evil deeds going on in the world today. I happen to agree that Bitcoin should not be "sold" as a "get rich quick" scheme, yet the world we live in is full of people who want to sell, and people who want to be sold, these kinds of things. If they are spending most of their time in the Speculation sub-forum they probably are well past the point of having you "save" them.

Sigh, I have replied to this many times before. 

As with electronic voting, biometric identification, mass user profiling, etc.,  the really important issues with bitcoin are not the technology itself, but the  consequences of using it - legal, political, economcial, social, practical, etc.  However, most of these consequences are hard to evaluate without understanding the technology.  That is why computer experts without vested interest have a moral obligation to enter the discussion of such issues.  Otherwise, the discussion will be dominated by the "salesmen" of the technology, who will only mention the good tings and hide or deny the bad things.

Brazil recently was plagued TelexFree, a huge multi-level marketing scam that stole billions and ruined the life of milions.  For a while it looked like that Bitcoin was going to be another TelexFree.   Fortunately it hasn't happened so far; perhaps it is the memory of TelexFree has made people wary of miraculous investments.

My advocacy (which is apparently not much needed, thank god) was and will be done in local channels.  I don't want to "save" anyone in this thread.   As I said many times, I consider short-term speculation a form of gambling, and I have no problem with that -- as long as people know that they are gambling.

I post most of the time here because this thread is more active than all other ~50 threads in my watchlist together, it has the most varied (and interesting) audience, and news on all topics get promptly posted here.

If everyone here posts their beliefs, and respond to posts that they disagree with, not for personal gain or public service but just for the sake of debating -- why shouldn't I do the same?

[600watt]

how many coins can the dumper own?

[pinky]

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

This are peanuts for early birds 

Not important who, but why? Is there some bad news coming?

[findftp]

how many coins can the dumper own?

Well, at least 144000 more coins.
Watch when they will start to move

[Hunyadi]

3500 ask wall at Bitfinex