Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hunyadi]

About 1.6K dumped on Stamp.

Again, where do the coins come from? Someone ask the exchange owner!

This is a good question. The manipulation is so blatant. Wonder if there is a whale who could exploit it?

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[mooncake]

1. Most of your time is spent in Speculation. Almost none of it is spent in the more technical sub-forums. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=183158;sa=statPanel Am I really supposed to believe this answer?

2. So you want to save grown adults from their own choices and you think the Speculation sub-forum is the best location to achieve this? Even if Bitcoin was a scam, it would be small potatoes compared to the amount of evil deeds going on in the world today. I happen to agree that Bitcoin should not be "sold" as a "get rich quick" scheme, yet the world we live in is full of people who want to sell, and people who want to be sold, these kinds of things. If they are spending most of their time in the Speculation sub-forum they probably are well past the point of having you "save" them.

Sigh, I have replied to this many times before. 

As with electronic voting, biometric identification, mass user profiling, etc.,  the really important issues with bitcoin are not the technology itself, but the  consequences of using it - legal, political, economcial, social, practical, etc.  However, most of these consequences are hard to evaluate without understanding the technology.  That is why computer experts without vested interest have a moral obligation to enter the discussion of such issues.  Otherwise, the discussion will be dominated by the "salesmen" of the technology, who will only mention the good tings and hide or deny the bad things.

Brazil recently was plagued TelexFree, a huge multi-level marketing scam that stole billions and ruined the life of milions.  For a while it looked like that Bitcoin was going to be another TelexFree.   Fortunately it hasn't happened so far; perhaps it is the memory of TelexFree has made people wary of miraculous investments.

My advocacy (which is apparently not much needed, thank god) was and will be done in local channels.  I don't want to "save" anyone in this thread.   As I said many times, I consider short-term speculation a form of gambling, and I have no problem with that -- as long as people know that they are gambling.

I post most of the time here because this thread is more active than all other ~50 threads in my watchlist together, it has the most varied (and interesting) audience, and news on all topics get promptly posted here.

If everyone here posts their beliefs, and respond to posts that they disagree with, not for personal gain or public service but just for the sake of debating -- why shouldn't I do the same?

The problem with your argument is that bitcoin is not a scam. You had admitted earlier that "the distributed ledger is a genuine technological innovation which demonstrates that digital records can be held securely without any central authority." Bitcoin is the first such distributed ledger which has by far the biggest market capitalization and most widely accepted relative to the other cryptocurrencies.

Have you considered the scenario where bitcoin eventually becomes accepted and used by the majority of the people on this planet? Will the people whom you had advised hate you for that?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

For many believers, bitcoin certainly has become a religion, in the most literal sense. 

Bitcoin is not a religion - it is an insurrection.

Bitcoin's job is to make governments impossible to fund themselves

Sorry, but the belief that it is possible to get rid of governments, and that society will be better without them, is religion. One cannot be convinced of that by argument or historical examples; one has to take it on faith. 

More so for the belief that bitcoin will achieve that goal.

(By the way, Satoshi's goal when he described bitcoin was to design a digital cash system that did not require a trusted authority.  Period. The implementation was only meant to verify that the design was correct.  Period.  Bitcoin was not intended to be a replacement for credit cards, a way to buy sex and drugs safely, to evade taxes, to dodge the SEC, to destroy dollars, gvernments and banks, to keep your savings safe from inflation, or to get rich; or even to be THE method of internet payment used by everybody in the future.)

[JayJuanGee]

What is there to believe or not believe in?  You want to make it sound like a religion.
Study it hard enough and you'll realise that it all boils down to cryptography, economics, applied game theory, information theory and lots of mathematics. Either you get it or you don't. Money is a value information technology, not voodoo. Abstracting the analysis away from your politics and emotions is the most difficult part. Begin at the beginning.

Come on!  The difference between economics and religion is that religion states very clearly what you are required to believe without proof. 

The eventual success of bitcoin depends also a lot on psychology, sociology, businesses, and politics.  People have different probabilities for future events in those areas.  What is your probability that the US government will ban bitcoin?  That Monero will supplant Bitcoin?  That the largest miners will form a cartel and ruin bitcoin to maximize their short-term gain?  That PayPal will switch to Dgecoin?  That the Chinese traders, whose mood currently defines the market price of bitcoin, will get bored and dump all their holdings tomorrow?

For many believers, bitcoin certainly has become a religion, in the most literal sense.   (People in this thread are relatively pragmatic, but what I have read in some other threads is far beyond voodoo..)

Your explanation is ridiculous.  Sure there are various leaps of faith regarding how much we know about bitcoin and how we bet the probabilities of various events and accordingly probabilities of bitcoin's success or failure.... However, all of those various leaps of faith and various bets on probabilities does NOT rise to the level of religion.

By the way, I agree with you that bitcoin is more than just computer science and economics, and bitcoin touches on at least all of those other areas that you mention above "psychology, sociology, businesses, and politics" and probably more... but could you please discontinue with your frequent religious emphases because it seems that you are being unnecessarily provocative and misleading with these kinds of categorizing and arguing.

[justusranvier]

Sorry, but the belief that it is possible to get rid of governments, and that society will be better without them, is religion. One cannot be convinced of that by argument or historical examples; one has to take it on faith.

You've gotten things confused - you're the one taking things on faith.

There are, in fact, rigorous logical arguments that prove government is incompatible with any consistent definition of ethics.

The fact that you've blindly asserted that those arguments don't exist, instead of asking whether or not they exist, shows that you probably wouldn't accept them even if you were unable to refute them.

[ErisDiscordia]

Sorry, but the belief that it is possible to get rid of governments, and that society will be better without them, is religion.

So is the belief that governments are necessary and in fact desirable for human societies to exist.

And while there is not much historical evidence suggesting a government-less society would or would not function due to absence of data, there is in fact a humongous amount of evidence that governments not only fail to deliver on their promises of security and fairness, they are incapable of doing so due to their very structure, which inhibits information flow and direct feedback. And let's not forget the endless atrocities causing the death of millions and poverty for billions which would arguably be impossible to achieve without government.

The cosmic grandfather of christianity has been replaced by the big brother of the government.

It is a monotheistic religion still and those denouncing it must face ostracism as blasphemers.

[hmmmstrange]

Sorry, but the belief that it is possible to get rid of governments, and that society will be better without them, is religion. One cannot be convinced of that by argument or historical examples; one has to take it on faith.

You've gotten things confused - you're the one taking things on faith.

There are, in fact, rigorous logical arguments that prove government is incompatible with any consistent definition of ethics.

The fact that you've blindly asserted that those arguments don't exist, instead of asking whether or not they exist, shows that you probably wouldn't accept them even if you were unable to refute them.

I'm putting together a government grant proposal to study ancient coloring books. I've got a friend in the government who will rubber stamp it. I'm thinking $400k a year for 5 years sounds about right. Am in the right ballpark Jorge?

[Sandia]

how many coins can the dumper own?

... at least 6k less now

I think the best lesson from the last month is to keep a bid open $10-20 below market.  The buyer makes a quick profit on the bounce, and the dumper makes less money on the drop.

[Newbie1022]

how many coins can the dumper own?

... at least 6k less now

I think the best lesson from the last month is to keep a bid open $10-20 below market.  The buyer makes a quick profit on the bounce, and the dumper makes less money on the drop.

Smart.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The eventual success of bitcoin depends also a lot on psychology, sociology, businesses, and politics.

This is where you are wrong and confused about what money is and how it functions. It falls wholly within the theories and quantifiable outcomes of game theoretic analysis. There is no voodoo science, humanities, politics, leaps of faith or religion involved. Bitcoin will succeed because it is advantageous and beneficial for every individual player of the money game AND the world/economy at large that would adopt it, versus centrally-managed depreciating fiat (see games with transferable utility).

http://sites.stat.psu.edu/~babu/nash/money.pdf

You are the scammer for keeping the poor huddled, confused masses cowering in fear of the unknown and clinging to their corrupted, mismanaged savings and life earnings.

[justusranvier]

beneficial for every individual player

I disagree only with this part.

The people who derive unearned benefits from the current corrupt system, and who prefer those unearned benefits to a more fair system, will not benefit from Bitcoin.

Even if you could prove that Ben Bernanke would end up with more real disposable income in a Bitcoin world than a Dollar world, you still can't unilaterally conclude that Ben Bernanke would benefit from the change.

This is because value is subjective and only Ben Bernanke can determine whether a world in which he has less control over other people's money and more disposable income of his own, compared to the present, is a benefit to him.

[Newbie1022]

So, I opened a short at $491. The reason? The rally back, although impressive in monetary terms, was a fairly low volume rally -- which I am learning is usually a trap.

For those who are asking -- is there something wrong with Bitcoin? No. Not at all. The past few months have seen incredible breakthroughs. Are those breakthroughs and user adoption commensurate with the speculated run-up in the price that occurred years ahead of schedule (as speculation normally does) or did traders get carried away? Well, I think most people on here, besides zealots, would agree that there was definitely a bubble. That leaves us with the very challenging question -- is today's price cheap in real terms or only cheap in relation to an uber-bubble. The former is probably correct, but concerns over the latter persist.

Anyhow, even thinking that, a short over the next couple weeks seems to be the right view because we are still in a long-term bear market and we don't have sufficient regular user adoption to breakthrough technical points. Thus, the whales, many of whom are dumpers, dictate the price.

Looking out over a one year timeline, we should see prices in the range of double today's (maybe higher, but one step at a time). However, in the interim, I highly suspect we'll have to see another flash crash... and one that is blatant enough that traders know a bottom is in place, before we can begin that rally in frank. Furthermore, mix in dumpers and bots and it is easy to see that we keep bouncing off technical points with the dumpers holding a steady lead in volume (given their disproportionate wealth). I very much believe, then, after taking a few days to just chill out, look at charts, and rethink things that we have to go down more and, perhaps, painfully so.

So, if you are a short-term or intermediate-player (or you are carrying a trade on margin) then it may be prudent to ease up your exposure. If you are holding then, and there is never a guarantee but you have to play the odds, the best move is probably to hold strong... even through a crash. Lastly, regardless o which camp you all in, I'd hold some fiat on an exchange for bargain buying post a flash crash.

That's my slightly more thoughtful than usual take on what's going on and how to deal with it.

P.S. -- if you are in LTC run for the hills... look at the numbers on the shorts... run for the hills because a slaughter is right around the corner
P.S. #2 -- Don't short LTC, though, unless you don't sleep at all AND/OR you institute relatively narrow stop-losses. You will fall asleep. You will get burnt. You will be ornery for about a month thereafter (this happened to me on a relatively meaningless bet during high volatility... it was exactly as stupid as it sounds).

[jeezy]

how many coins can the dumper own?

... at least 6k less now

I think the best lesson from the last month is to keep a bid open $10-20 below market.  The buyer makes a quick profit on the bounce, and the dumper makes less money on the drop.

Smart.

Welcome to 2 years ago 

[JorgeStolfi]

bitcoin is not a scam. You had admitted earlier that "the distributed ledger is a genuine technological innovation which demonstrates that digital records can be held securely without any central authority."

Bitcoin itself is not a scam.

Telling common folk to invest in bitcoin because it is safer than stocks, because it will be worth a zillion in a few years, because it will be the currency of the inerne, etc. -- that is a scam.  Even, or especially, if supported by pseudoscience like the logscale straight-line extrapolation, the (total e-commerce)/(finite suppliy) argument, blockchain statistics passed off as usage statistics, etc.  Especilly if the victim is not told that the price will depend on the mood of the Chinese tea traders, that no one will care if his bitcoins get stolen, etc..

(TelexFree had a non-scam product, some uninteresting VOIP card.  The scam was getting millions of people to invest all their savings in the MLM scheme.)

Have you considered the scenario where bitcoin eventually becomes accepted and used by the majority of the people on this planet? Will the people whom you had advised hate you for that?

That is what I am very skeptical about.

I tell people why i am skeptical.  Ultimately it will be their decision to invest or not.  I will run the risk of being wrong.

Have you considered the scenario where the price will crash to 100$ or less?  Will the people whom you convinced to invest their savings at 800 $/BTC hate you for that?

[findftp]

Sorry, but the belief that it is possible to get rid of governments, and that society will be better without them, is religion.

And while there is not much historical evidence suggesting a government-less society would or would not function due to absence of data,...

I think you can safely assume the planet functioned perfectly fine billions of years without having a government.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Explanation

And we have a lift off!!

I really like when green field is more up than down.

I was waiting whole week for that situation - but still like always I haven't got money to buy BTC - but I truly suggest that this is very good moment to buy before the price will go up $30+.


Regards.

[iram3130]

Explanation

Explanation

And we have a lift off!!

I really like when green field is more up than down.

I was waiting whole week for that situation - but still like always I haven't got money to buy BTC - but I truly suggest that this is very good moment to buy before the price will go up $30+.


Regards.

Hahah, you again predicted the market, even fail to read many times.
I never saw even once when you were right to predict right.

[fabrizio123]

Explanation

Explanation

And we have a lift off!!

I really like when green field is more up than down.

I was waiting whole week for that situation - but still like always I haven't got money to buy BTC - but I truly suggest that this is very good moment to buy before the price will go up $30+.


Regards.

I don't think so, 3400 bitcoin wall at 475$ on bitfinex, we will stay here for now and maybe we will go down (again...)