Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[abercrombie]

Dumps from time to time like the weeks before but the difference is the walls look bullish this time.

What walls?

Bid/asks walls (more bids than asks)
https://de.bitstamp.net/market/order_book/

Even more bullish @Bitfinex

[Boxman90]

It feels like there is a conscious effort by some to drive the price down to right around $400,  probably so that they can increase their holdings as cheaply as possible.  Selling now if you bought way higher, would be a big mistake IMO...

Selling to prevent additional losses if you are certain the price will drop lower, has never in the history of mankind been a bad idea. New traders should not buy into this bullshit of "don't sell if you bought higher!". It doesn't matter where you bought, low or high. If you feel it's going lower and you can't afford or don't want to take any more losses than the price you're at now, then you should sell. Plain and simple.

Telling people to hold and go for broke is borderline scamming.

[btcrising]

I would be happy if the price held at 400$ permanently.

[ShroomsKit]

Those few people who were confident enough to finally start buying above 400 and right away got dumped on straight in their face must be feeling so good! I bet they can't wait to buy again!
But hey fuck that! Cheeeeeaaaap coins!!!! Cheaaap coins! All these cheap coins! This is heaven!

[prophetx]

...Bitcoin is the investment with the largest positive EV on the planet.

OK, I'll take the bait.  Tell me how.

Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.

Gotcha.
Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000.  How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers?

i have no idea but i thought if it could reach 1000 in 5 years from 2010, then my the end of the decade it would be a major player in global currency markets and destabilize what some countries do to keep their currencies at certain unnatural level.

[prophetx]

and just from a purely academic position it would be very interesting to analyze data to see how the economy really functions

[S3052]

Those few people who were confident enough to finally start buying above 400 and right away got dumped on straight in their face must be feeling so good! I bet they can't wait to buy again!
But hey fuck that! Cheeeeeaaaap coins!!!! Cheaaap coins! All these cheap coins! This is heaven!

it's a falling knife. can go way lower

[adamstgBit]

thats one ugly hourly candle

[adamstgBit]

Those few people who were confident enough to finally start buying above 400 and right away got dumped on straight in their face must be feeling so good! I bet they can't wait to buy again!
But hey fuck that! Cheeeeeaaaap coins!!!! Cheaaap coins! All these cheap coins! This is heaven!

[thetruth123123]

Drop some more please, one can never have enough cheap coins 

[ShroomsKit]

Those few people who were confident enough to finally start buying above 400 and right away got dumped on straight in their face must be feeling so good! I bet they can't wait to buy again!
But hey fuck that! Cheeeeeaaaap coins!!!! Cheaaap coins! All these cheap coins! This is heaven!

it's a falling knife. can go way lower

Awesome! Cheap coins!

[ShroomsKit]

Drop some more please, one can never have enough cheap coins 

Exactly! Die Bitcoin die!

[heri]

Such a toxic environment here.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.

[Boxman90]

Such a toxic environment here.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
Paid $1200/BTC. How does I investment

Fixed that for you..

[JorgeStolfi]

Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.

Gotcha.
Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000.  How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers?

Well, "the market's EV" is 400$.  Therefore, "the market" thinks, rightly or wrongly, that the chances of BTC being worth 2000 USD at any time in the next 5 years are somewhat less than 35%.  An investor who thinks that there is a 35% chance of selling for 2000$ within 5 years should be buying BTC for 400$, since  the expected profit would be at least 12% per year.  Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.

To be sure, that must be the opinion only of all those who have looked at bitcoin and still have investment money on hand.  Those who have higher expectations for the price should have already all their money invested in BTC already.

Actually,  the 12%/year ROI above assumes that the only alternative to "2000$ within 5 years" is "price will immediatel crash to 0$".  But the market must not be that pessimistic about the alternatives: the price may do many other things, with significant probabilities, besides crashing to 0$.  So, the market's probability for "2000$ within 5 years" must be much less than 35%. 

[esse83]

Blocks/hour   4.94 / 729 s

Thats it, bitcoin network is dying together with the price. RIP Sweet Prince.

Just kidding..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

Blocks/hour   4.94 / 729 s

Thats it, bitcoin network is dying together with the price. RIP Sweet Prince.

Just kidding..

hash rate crashing is bullish because its going to take longer for poeple to move their coins to the exchanges  

[inca]

Volume pitiful. Women and children first eh abercrombie?

A quick look at bitcoinwisdom shows the price is still 400.

[S3052]

Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.

Gotcha.
Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000.  How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers?

Well, "the market's EV" is 400$.  Therefore, "the market" thinks, rightly or wrongly, that the chances of BTC being worth 2000 USD at any time in the next 5 years are somewhat less than 35%.  An investor who thinks that there is a 35% chance of selling for 2000$ within 5 years should be buying BTC for 400$, since  the expected profit would be at least 12% per year.  Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
 

exactly, the price is always right, because it consolidates all estimates of all market participants at any given time. the only way to forecast prices is via technical analysis - and this can only work when done in an unbiased way