Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cbeast]

the story that is bitcoin will live on even if EVERYONE capitulates.

bitcoin will never die, that much is certain.

I don't see hashrate declining. The blockchain is as healthy as ever. It's just on a drunken binge at the moment.

[mooncake]

Those who don't think manipulation occurs, here is a guide written by Wolong, the guy who originally pumped Dogecoin.

http://cryptofrenzy.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/god.pdf

Good read.

Before the read, I was wondering why huge ask walls appear at regular intervals after a huge dump. Why sell low when you can sell high?

After the read, I am aware that one possibility is the manipulators are at the Suppressing Prices stage. I don't know about this for sure but this offers a real and logical explanation.

After the Suppressing Prices stage, the following stages follow: (1) Test Pump, (2) Actual Pump, (3) Shakeouts, (4) Re-allocation and distribution, and (5) Exiting - The Dump.

[cbeast]

BOTTOMS IN BOYS!

I am somehow not convinced. We are hovering very closely to $366, and I do believe if someone is dumping stolen coins, there are much more than what we've seen.

the sellers dumping furiously, agree with you, i guess...

selling near the bottom to catch the bottom is kinda risky tho, crazy people!

Go home dumpers. you're drunk.

[cbeast]

Those who don't think manipulation occurs, here is a guide written by Wolong, the guy who originally pumped Dogecoin.

http://cryptofrenzy.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/god.pdf

Good read.

Before the read, I was wondering why huge ask walls appear at regular intervals after a huge dump. Why sell low when you can sell high?

After the read, I am aware that one possibility is the manipulators are at the Suppressing Prices stage. I don't know about this for sure but this offers a real and logical explanation.

After the Suppressing Prices stage, the following stages follow: (1) Test Pump, (2) Actual Pump, (3) Shakeouts, (4) Re-allocation and distribution, and (5) Exiting - The Dump.

That hypothesis sounds like a psyops tactic to cause a panic sell. That's chapter 6.

[JorgeStolfi]

It's a photoshop. I can tell from the pixels.

Good eye!  Indeed, the shadow is wrong, there is no reflection on the floor, ...

[cbeast]

It's a photoshop. I can tell from the pixels.

Good eye!  Indeed, the shadow is wrong, there is no reflection on the floor, ...

The girl has a shadow, the glass has a shadow. The ATM has a low light casting the shadow. You can see its reflection. You can see the light lighting up the trim on the wall as well. If it's shopped, it is really pro work.

[adamstgBit]

It's a photoshop. I can tell from the pixels.

Good eye!  Indeed, the shadow is wrong, there is no reflection on the floor, ...

for now we will have to be content with this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nv9nBVI-E5U

if you want to see how bitcoin newbies feel watch this guys channel.

the music in the back says it all. oh poor newbies...

[Hypnoise]

moon oh my moon .... where are you  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mooncake]

Those who don't think manipulation occurs, here is a guide written by Wolong, the guy who originally pumped Dogecoin.

http://cryptofrenzy.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/god.pdf

Good read.

Before the read, I was wondering why huge ask walls appear at regular intervals after a huge dump. Why sell low when you can sell high?

After the read, I am aware that one possibility is the manipulators are at the Suppressing Prices stage. I don't know about this for sure but this offers a real and logical explanation.

After the Suppressing Prices stage, the following stages follow: (1) Test Pump, (2) Actual Pump, (3) Shakeouts, (4) Re-allocation and distribution, and (5) Exiting - The Dump.

Now, the capitalisation of DOGE is much smaller than BTC but that does not mean that BTC cannot be manipulated. What is needed is just a bigger purse, that is all. And this is certainly possible.

I mentioned that this is only a theory and I cannot know for sure. But there is a way to know for sure. If and only if the exchange operators are willing to provide insights as they know who every single buyer and seller are, the bitcoin community will be able to know the cause of the perceived current bear market.

[Walrave]

I've been watching the BTC price for a little while now and I'm wondering what peoples views are on the reasons for the fall in BTC price.

As I have written many times before, I believe that the Nov/2013 bubble was caused by the opening of the "popular" Chinese market.  At least two articles in mainstream media claimed that in China there was a large population of amateur and semi-professional speculators, not particularly computer-savy, who used to trade all sort of commodities like fermented tea; and those people enthusiastically embraced bitcoin as a much better item of speculation.  The main Chinese exchanges Huobi and OKCoin opened in Beijing only a few months before the bubble, and grew enormously during it.

The Apr/2013 bubble, too, was probably driven by China, specifically by BTC-China in Shanghai.  Shanghai is a special economic zone, and BTC-China changed its management in early 2013 (and may have catered to computer types, rather than the amateur speculators above).

Almost all the large price changes since Nov/2013 can be traced to events that are relevant to Chinese traders, such as the Chinese government decrees that banned the use of bitcoin in commerce and finance, and various rumors and disclaimers about them.

In contrast, significant events that are relevant only to "the West" (the world outside China), such as Dell and other merchants "accepting bitcoins", have had practically no effect on the price.  To me it is pretty clear that the Western exchanges largely track the Chinese ones through arbitrage trading (which may be a significant fraction of their trading volume).

There are only a few large price swings that I cannot relate to any external event, in China or in the West.  In particular, I still have no explanation for the rally that lifted the price from ~450$ to ~650$ between May/20 and Jun/10.  But my guess is that it, too, was related to Chinese events and affected mostly the demand in China.

Anyway, I believe that the cause for the overall decline since Jan/2014 should be sought in China.  My guess is that, from February to May, those Chinese speculators grew increasingly disappointed with bitcoin -- not just because the stagnating price and the government's policies, but because they could not compete with the robots and other tricks used by the more sophisticated traders (which may have included insiders or special clients).  Since those amateur traders have no other use for bitcoin in China, they probably sold their BTC and withdrew the yuan.

The Chinese exchange owners admitted this problem in early May and promised to make the field more level by suspending leverage trading and curbing high-frequency trading (a promise that, according to Bobby Lee, they broke not long after that).

This hypothetical exodus of amateur traders could explain the general downward trend from February to May, superimposed on the sudden swings related to specific external events; and the remedial measures taken by the Chinese exchanges may explain why the price remained relatively stable during May. 

Thus, I see the drop of the last few weeks as being due to the Chinese traders returning to their state in early May.  The unknown news that caused the surge in demand after May 20 were apparently negated. 

In spite of all the losses so far, the price still seems to be quite a bit higher than what could be sustained by Western demand alone.  On Apr/11 we had a glimpse of what would happen if the Chinese were to pull out completely: in response to some bad news, that again was relevant only to the Chinese market, the price briefly dropped to ~340$. 

Old coin being spent in shops and businesses. These companies auto sell, so effectively people spending BTC they've stored for a while pushes BTC down.

Drops perpetuated by fear as people look to get out while BTC goes down hoping to hitch a ride when/if it rises again.

Rises in other markets that are attracting investors away from BTC (exacerbated by the fall in BTC price).

Yes, all these factors may be helping the decline.

Thank you, this is something I underestimated. I guess it could be a while before things pick up again in that case, sounds like black Tuesday in slow motion in China and we're just along for the ride.

[JorgeStolfi]

The girl has a shadow, the glass has a shadow. The ATM has a low light casting the shadow. You can see its reflection. You can see the light lighting up the trim on the wall as well. If it's shopped, it is really pro work.

The ATM was rendered from a 3D model with that lighting and alpha channel, then composited over the photo, and the shadow was photoshopped by hand.

The light that is supposed to cast the ATM shadow on the floor should also cast a fainter shadow of the glass railing on the floor at left, but there is none. 

Also the shadow of the ATM on the floor is too sharp. Compare with the shadow of the cheque on the ATM body (which should be sharper).

Also, the lighter area at the top of the glass railing, behind the ATM, is the reflection of a light wall located behind the camera.  But then there should be a reflection of the ATM as well, just to the left of the ATM.

There are other defects, but those should suffice...

[Hypnoise]

Those who don't think manipulation occurs, here is a guide written by Wolong, the guy who originally pumped Dogecoin.

http://cryptofrenzy.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/god.pdf

Good read.

Before the read, I was wondering why huge ask walls appear at regular intervals after a huge dump. Why sell low when you can sell high?

After the read, I am aware that one possibility is the manipulators are at the Suppressing Prices stage. I don't know about this for sure but this offers a real and logical explanation.

After the Suppressing Prices stage, the following stages follow: (1) Test Pump, (2) Actual Pump, (3) Shakeouts, (4) Re-allocation and distribution, and (5) Exiting - The Dump.

Now, the capitalisation of DOGE is much smaller than BTC but that does not mean that BTC cannot be manipulated. What is needed is just a bigger purse, that is all. And this is certainly possible.

I mentioned that this is only a theory and I cannot know for sure. But there is a way to know for sure. If and only if the exchange operators are willing to provide insights as they know who every single buyer and seller are, the bitcoin community will be able to know the cause of the perceived current bear market.

or else

(1) Test Dump, (2) Actual Dump, (3) Shakeouts, (4) Re-allocation and distribution, and (5)Hodling

[MrPiggles]

The girl has a shadow, the glass has a shadow. The ATM has a low light casting the shadow. You can see its reflection. You can see the light lighting up the trim on the wall as well. If it's shopped, it is really pro work.

The ATM was rendered from a 3D model with that lighting and alpha channel, then composited over the photo, and the shadow was photoshopped by hand.

The light that is supposed to cast the ATM shadow on the floor should also cast a fainter shadow of the glass railing on the floor at left, but there is none.  

Also the shadow of the ATM on the floor is too sharp. Compare with the shadow of the cheque on the ATM body (which should be sharper).

Also, the lighter area at the top of the glass railing, behind the ATM, is the reflection of a light wall located behind the camera.  But then there should be a reflection of the ATM as well, just to the left of the ATM.

There are other defects, but those should suffice...

I don't think anyone thought it was real, dumbass

edit - never mind i read more and people did think it was real

[MrPiggles]

hey guise, i put my bitcoin atm on the beach

don't listen to jorge stolfi, this is real guise

[adamstgBit]

The girl has a shadow, the glass has a shadow. The ATM has a low light casting the shadow. You can see its reflection. You can see the light lighting up the trim on the wall as well. If it's shopped, it is really pro work.

The ATM was rendered from a 3D model with that lighting and alpha channel, then composited over the photo, and the shadow was photoshopped by hand.

The light that is supposed to cast the ATM shadow on the floor should also cast a fainter shadow of the glass railing on the floor at left, but there is none.  

Also the shadow of the ATM on the floor is too sharp. Compare with the shadow of the cheque on the ATM body (which should be sharper).

Also, the lighter area at the top of the glass railing, behind the ATM, is the reflection of a light wall located behind the camera.  But then there should be a reflection of the ATM as well, just to the left of the ATM.

There are other defects, but those should suffice...

I don't think anyone thought it was real, dumbass

so its not real?


now i have to look up what this "diamond circle" is...

[MrPiggles]

The girl has a shadow, the glass has a shadow. The ATM has a low light casting the shadow. You can see its reflection. You can see the light lighting up the trim on the wall as well. If it's shopped, it is really pro work.

The ATM was rendered from a 3D model with that lighting and alpha channel, then composited over the photo, and the shadow was photoshopped by hand.

The light that is supposed to cast the ATM shadow on the floor should also cast a fainter shadow of the glass railing on the floor at left, but there is none. 

Also the shadow of the ATM on the floor is too sharp. Compare with the shadow of the cheque on the ATM body (which should be sharper).

Also, the lighter area at the top of the glass railing, behind the ATM, is the reflection of a light wall located behind the camera.  But then there should be a reflection of the ATM as well, just to the left of the ATM.

There are other defects, but those should suffice...

I don't think anyone thought it was real, dumbass

so its not real?

lol i just read his post i didn't realise other people thought it was real. he loves to do his pseudo-intellectual act.

guise, i'm a pro at life, I got a phd online and everything, listen to my overinflated opinions on bitcoin and photoshop - jorgestolfi

[adamstgBit]

http://diamondcircle.net/products/bitcoin-atm

i guess the one in the picture is the model they hope to one day achieve, SOON TM

porbably made the img to get some funding

google.. it finds everything!

this is img hot off the press BTW...

[cbeast]

The girl has a shadow, the glass has a shadow. The ATM has a low light casting the shadow. You can see its reflection. You can see the light lighting up the trim on the wall as well. If it's shopped, it is really pro work.

The ATM was rendered from a 3D model with that lighting and alpha channel, then composited over the photo, and the shadow was photoshopped by hand.

The light that is supposed to cast the ATM shadow on the floor should also cast a fainter shadow of the glass railing on the floor at left, but there is none. 

Also the shadow of the ATM on the floor is too sharp. Compare with the shadow of the cheque on the ATM body (which should be sharper).

Also, the lighter area at the top of the glass railing, behind the ATM, is the reflection of a light wall located behind the camera.  But then there should be a reflection of the ATM as well, just to the left of the ATM.

There are other defects, but those should suffice...

rendered on a 4" smartphone screen, it looks good.

[adamstgBit]

i need new glasses.