Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[r0ach]

wow.... bitcoin is crashing hard. Merchant sell pressure and no sign of recovery, wouldn't surprise me to hit 350 again by next monday. Good thing im in litecoin where the ratio is going up everyday and I can trade ltc/usd to compund that

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[Bitcoin_BOy$]

wow.... bitcoin is crashing hard. Merchant sell pressure and no sign of recovery, wouldn't surprise me to hit 350 again by next monday. Good thing im in litecoin where the ratio is going up everyday and I can trade ltc/usd to compund that

We spoke yesterday about how many time it will take to raise 1k $ , today we talk about 350-300 $

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

Explanation

da fuck?

[shmadz]

that monetary velocity formula is a convenient fiction for ivory tower academic economists, e.g. I don't see anything about an human psychology factor in there.

Here's the one I use:

Bmo = N x A

Bmo ~ total value bitcoin M0 (also called 'market cap')
N ~ total number of entities holding bitcoins
A ~ average Amount of value holding entities are willing to hold in btc

It appears likely that N is only going to keep increasing for the forseeable future (perhaps with exponential adoption rates at times).
A will stay around the same but also may increase as the confidence in holding value in btc becomes firmer.

I just had to quote this so I can read it when I sober up.

Carry on.

[Richy_T]

Explanation

Go home Chartbuddy, you're drunk.

Not sure if people are joking... The plots may seem broken at first sight, but they are a consequence of large changes in the order book, at some distance from the spread.  Months ago, the changes were usually small and usually close to the spread, so the plot usually looked like a fairly smooth valley.

I don't think I buy that. The high value plots are too similar. I think Bitstamp is sending out old data.

[JorgeStolfi]

Here's the [ formula ] I use:

Bmo = N x A

Bmo ~ total value bitcoin M0 (also called 'market cap')
N ~ total number of entities holding bitcoins
A ~ average Amount of value holding entities are willing to hold in btc

It appears likely that N is only going to keep increasing for the forseeable future (perhaps with exponential adoption rates at times).

A will stay around the same but also may increase as the confidence in holding value in btc becomes firmer.

You can let N to be any number of people, as long as it includes all people holding bitcoins in some time interval of interest and A is the average over that same set of people. 

So, let N be the number of all people who have held some bitcoin at any time since January.  Then N is fixed.

The Bmo of bitcoin has fallen 50% since January.  Therefore A must have fallen by that much, too.  So much for "A will stay around the same".

The formula is problematic also because it does not take into account the dynamics of BTC investing.  It seems that most of the extant bitcoins are held by "old" inactive investors, who are confident enough to hold them for a while longer, but were not confident enough to buy more coins over the last year.  (If the price keeps falling and they eventually decide to sell at 100 $/BTC, their old bitcoins would still have been a great investment, but any bitcoins acquired over the last year would have been a terrible one.)

So, the contribution to the A factor of those old investors does not depend on their confidence in bitcoin.  Rather, the amount of BTC that they are willing to hold is constant, and the amount of value that they are wlling to hold in BTC varies according to the market price of BTC, as determined by the Chinese traders.

In that case the value of A does not determine the market price, but is passively determined by it -- making the formula useless as a predictor of price.

[Richy_T]

I don't think I buy that. The high value plots are too similar. I think Bitstamp is sending out old data.

Confirmed. Those plots have the same, identical, *old* timestamp.

[shmadz]

Explanation

Go home Chartbuddy, you're drunk.

Not sure if people are joking... The plots may seem broken at first sight, but they are a consequence of large changes in the order book, at some distance from the spread.  Months ago, the changes were usually small and usually close to the spread, so the plot usually looked like a fairly smooth valley.

I don't think I buy that. The high value plots are too similar. I think Bitstamp is sending out old data.

Either chart buddy is drunk, or bitstamp is drunk, or I'm drunk, perhaps all three, either way, it's all g good

note, I have no account at bitstamp.

[nioc]

BitcoinWisdom: 30 days change %, -1.38

[Richy_T]

The data which keeps getting repeated appears to be from the following time according to the timestamp in the data:

Sat Nov 15 00:13:22 CST 2014

Note that the process that ChartBuddy follows is to request the current book from Bitstamp. That data is then saved directly as a file with the filename based on the current day, the current hour and the current minute. This ensures that there is no way that ChartBuddy is using his own incorrect data. There is always the off-chance that my ISP is doing some caching of its own, of course but that seems unlikely.

Edit: More than unlikely since the connection is https.

[Richy_T]

Yup, here we go, duplicated on the command line.

Code:

rich@cb:~/mtgox$ curl https://www.bitstamp.net/api/order_book/ |cut -c 1-50
  % Total    % Received % Xferd  Average Speed   Time    Time     Time  Current
                                 Dload  Upload   Total   Spent    Left  Speed
100  186k  100  186k    0     0   104k      0  0:00:01  0:00:01 --:--:--  104k
{"timestamp": "1416105837", "bids": [["376.53", "0
rich@cb:~/mtgox$ curl https://www.bitstamp.net/api/order_book/ |cut -c 1-50
  % Total    % Received % Xferd  Average Speed   Time    Time     Time  Current
                                 Dload  Upload   Total   Spent    Left  Speed
100  186k  100  186k    0     0  85581      0  0:00:02  0:00:02 --:--:-- 85667
{"timestamp": "1416105837", "bids": [["376.53", "0
rich@cb:~/mtgox$ curl https://www.bitstamp.net/api/order_book/ |cut -c 1-50
  % Total    % Received % Xferd  Average Speed   Time    Time     Time  Current
                                 Dload  Upload   Total   Spent    Left  Speed
100  186k  100  186k    0     0   538k      0 --:--:-- --:--:-- --:--:--  542k
{"timestamp": "1416105837", "bids": [["376.53", "0
rich@cb:~/mtgox$ curl https://www.bitstamp.net/api/order_book/ |cut -c 1-50
  % Total    % Received % Xferd  Average Speed   Time    Time     Time  Current
                                 Dload  Upload   Total   Spent    Left  Speed
100  186k  100  186k    0     0  34629      0  0:00:05  0:00:05 --:--:-- 46526
{"timestamp": "1416105837", "bids": [["376.53", "0
rich@cb:~/mtgox$ curl https://www.bitstamp.net/api/order_book/ |cut -c 1-50
  % Total    % Received % Xferd  Average Speed   Time    Time     Time  Current
                                 Dload  Upload   Total   Spent    Left  Speed
100  185k  100  185k    0     0  80127      0  0:00:02  0:00:02 --:--:-- 80173
{"timestamp": "1416032002", "bids": [["395.52", "0

Note that the timestamp suddenly jumps backwards to that 1416032002 value. I'll add in a bit of code to exclude old data.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cryptasm]

We just have to wait for the big companies to start accepting it and we will see a nice pump again
or Winkdex should finally get the patent confirmed...=)

[cryptasm]

Explanation

and what the hell is up with the posting bot ?
that looks weird

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

and what the hell is up with the posting bot ?
that looks weird

I am now no longer including the old crappy data that stamp is putting out. When they start putting out real data, it will be included.

The prices at the top are wrong on that one (they were still being taken from the stale data) but they will be correct in the next one.

[cryptasm]

Explanation

and what the hell is up with the posting bot ?
that looks weird

I am now no longer including the old crappy data that stamp is putting out. When they start putting out real data, it will be included.

The prices at the top are wrong on that one (they were still being taken from the stale data) but they will be correct in the next one.

alright thanks

[YogoH]

orderbooks looking a bit more bullish

[SkyValeey]

Explanation

[DaRude]

Explanation

and what the hell is up with the posting bot ?
that looks weird

I am now no longer including the old crappy data that stamp is putting out. When they start putting out real data, it will be included.

The prices at the top are wrong on that one (they were still being taken from the stale data) but they will be correct in the next one.

It started to talk again  send it back to hell with fire