Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Newbie1022]

Back to 330-350 thanks to day traders.

Why does day trading always mean we have to go down to them?

So, as I called yesterday, we have a downward stair pattern developing on the TA, there is the auction news which might not be bad but certainly creates a bit of uncertainty (will people low-bid these coins after what happened to Draper and if they underbid the market, will they try to cash in a portion quickly to consolidate gains), the order book is not quite as stacked, and the shorts are no longer overleveraged (which also shows you that it isn't just regular day traders moving the price).

If anything the last auction will show people that there are entities out there willing to pay pretty much market price and so not to enter low ball bids again.

I think that is wishful thinking. I think this auction will look a little more like a Bertrand oligopoly where bids are at cost. Nobody wants to be a punch line like Draper. I mean, dude is infinitely richer than I am and I still have an inner sense of superiority compared to that dunce. He overpaid at a proximate high on a s--- ton of coins he'll never be able to unload at that price ever. Nobody is going to pull that little stunt, again. Not after how hard he got burnt.

[jaberwock]

This shit is going down ! even feds are dumping  

Please elaborate, how feds are dumping...?

50,000 seized coins are being auctioned.

How is that dumping?

split into 5 lots of 10,000.   Each transaction will have a seller and a buyer.

So it's just as easy to say 50,000 will be brought soon.

Rumors are that some uber troll billionaire will buy all lots to drive the price to 0 on Bitstamp and on bTC-E.

That is why we must sell everything before the auction ends

[jonoiv]

This shit is going down ! even feds are dumping  

Please elaborate, how feds are dumping...?

50,000 seized coins are being auctioned.

How is that dumping?

According to Wall Street Journal who are quoting an FBI official who says that they plan to market dump on BTC-E.

Nice try

[Tzupy]

This shit is going down ! even feds are dumping  

Please elaborate, how feds are dumping...?

50,000 seized coins are being auctioned.

How is that dumping?

According to Wall Street Journal which are quoting an FBI official who says that they plan to market dump on BTC-E.

fonzie trolling, what a surprise... No, the feds are auctioning the 50k on behalf of DPR (who still owns them until convicted)
and the US Government (who would own them after getting him convicted), and both believe that the price will take a nose dive.

[Newbie1022]

Back to 330-350 thanks to day traders.

Why does day trading always mean we have to go down to them?

So, as I called yesterday, we have a downward stair pattern developing on the TA, there is the auction news which might not be bad but certainly creates a bit of uncertainty (will people low-bid these coins after what happened to Draper and if they underbid the market, will they try to cash in a portion quickly to consolidate gains), the order book is not quite as stacked, and the shorts are no longer overleveraged (which also shows you that it isn't just regular day traders moving the price).

If anything the last auction will show people that there are entities out there willing to pay pretty much market price and so not to enter low ball bids again.

And that they will later regret high bids.

Naturally if you use the one previous auction as the example. The point being even in the uncertain times back then, like now, your not going to win an auction $100 off the spot price.

Depends on how many investors and which investors subscribe... then let the game theory begin. I'd expect a bid below market price although, typically, an auction leads to an inflated price. Investors are likely to give more weight to the risks of having a lot of coins than the savings on the slippage. I mean, that's not an amount you can unload easy (and there is slippage on the way down, too). So, you save buying slippage, but you incur a lot of risk and downside slippage. I just don't see it.

[N12]

He overpaid at a proximate high on a s--- ton of coins he'll never be able to unload at that price ever.

Thanks Newbie912948350, good to know that Bitcoin isn't ever going to 500s, 600s again.

[dreamspark]

Back to 330-350 thanks to day traders.

Why does day trading always mean we have to go down to them?

So, as I called yesterday, we have a downward stair pattern developing on the TA, there is the auction news which might not be bad but certainly creates a bit of uncertainty (will people low-bid these coins after what happened to Draper and if they underbid the market, will they try to cash in a portion quickly to consolidate gains), the order book is not quite as stacked, and the shorts are no longer overleveraged (which also shows you that it isn't just regular day traders moving the price).

If anything the last auction will show people that there are entities out there willing to pay pretty much market price and so not to enter low ball bids again.

And that they will later regret high bids.

Naturally if you use the one previous auction as the example. The point being even in the uncertain times back then, like now, your not going to win an auction $100 off the spot price.

Depends on how many investors and which investors subscribe... then let the game theory begin. I'd expect a bid below market price although, typically, an auction leads to an inflated price. Investors are likely to give more weight to the risks of having a lot of coins than the savings on the slippage. I mean, that's not an amount you can unload easy (and there is slippage on the way down, too). So, you save buying slippage, but you incur a lot of risk and downside slippage. I just don't see it.

There are numerous theories and all were discussed in detail before the last auction. The conclusion was lets wait and see and then we were shown that the auction winner was pretty much at market price. I'd lean towards that being the case this time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

He overpaid at a proximate high on a s--- ton of coins he'll never be able to unload at that price ever.

Thanks Newbie912948350, good to know that Bitcoin isn't ever going to 500s, 600s again.

30,000 BTCs discounted for opportunity costs and the time value of money might actually never reach $600-$700, again. Yes, you're are damn right that's what I'm saying. (I actually don't mean this in a hostile way... just energetic way... it would have to reach Gox bubble levels, again, to make that investment shake out in a profit).

Doesn't mean the nominal price won't be higher.

[spooderman]

I hate that the old chart buddies don't work. They are ideal when you go back over old posts. There are a part of history man!

Luckily I grabbed a few memorable historic Chartbuddies. Here's a pair of consecutive beauties from the Silk Road bust. Buddy was still using Gox at that point.

[IMG]http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/1598017.png[/ig][IMG]http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/1598018.png[/ig]

Thank you! I have saved a few of them myself too, though my preservation of history has mainly been screencapping ATHs on bitcoinity.

If only there was some way to permanently store information in a collectively agreed account of history. A public ledger if you will.

None that I know of:(

[Richy_T]

I hate that the old chart buddies don't work. They are ideal when you go back over old posts. There are a part of history man!

The images linked to on those posts are long gone. Cost too much to keep them around (though I do have all the data archived).

Well, I am glad you found a way to automate the process - it was a bugger doing it all by hand with 7777. Good job!! 

I figured 100 pages was plenty. Though I do still have more than 1600 posts in reserve

[N12]

He overpaid at a proximate high on a s--- ton of coins he'll never be able to unload at that price ever.

Thanks Newbie912948350, good to know that Bitcoin isn't ever going to 500s, 600s again.

30,000 BTCs discounted for opportunity costs and the time value of money might actually never reach $600-$700, again. Yes, you're are damn right that's what I'm saying. (I actually don't mean this in a hostile way... just energetic way... it would have to reach Gox bubble levels, again, to make that investment shake out in a profit).

Doesn't mean the nominal price won't be higher.

Ridiculous. Unless Bitcoin is supplanted, it can easily reach his 10k target within 5 years.

[Erdogan]

This shit is going down ! even feds are dumping  

Please elaborate, how feds are dumping...?

50,000 seized coins are being auctioned.

How is that dumping?

According to Wall Street Journal which are quoting an FBI official who says that they plan to market dump on BTC-E.

I've heard they are gonna dump them on btc-is in al bukamal.
Ref http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten

[Richy_T]

I hate that the old chart buddies don't work. They are ideal when you go back over old posts. There are a part of history man!

Luckily I grabbed a few memorable historic Chartbuddies. Here's a pair of consecutive beauties from the Silk Road bust. Buddy was still using Gox at that point.

[IMG]http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/1598017.png[/ig][IMG]http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/1598018.png[/ig]

Thank you! I have saved a few of them myself too, though my preservation of history has mainly been screencapping ATHs on bitcoinity.

If only there was some way to permanently store information in a collectively agreed account of history. A public ledger if you will.

None that I know of:(

Could maybe torrent the data.

[ask]

He overpaid at a proximate high on a s--- ton of coins he'll never be able to unload at that price ever.

Thanks Newbie912948350, good to know that Bitcoin isn't ever going to 500s, 600s again.

30,000 BTCs discounted for opportunity costs and the time value of money might actually never reach $600-$700, again. Yes, you're are damn right that's what I'm saying. (I actually don't mean this in a hostile way... just energetic way... it would have to reach Gox bubble levels, again, to make that investment shake out in a profit).

Doesn't mean the nominal price won't be higher.

Stupid, More stupid, ... Newbie1022.

[spooderman]

I hate that the old chart buddies don't work. They are ideal when you go back over old posts. There are a part of history man!

Luckily I grabbed a few memorable historic Chartbuddies. Here's a pair of consecutive beauties from the Silk Road bust. Buddy was still using Gox at that point.

[IMG]http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/1598017.png[/ig][IMG]http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/1598018.png[/ig]

Thank you! I have saved a few of them myself too, though my preservation of history has mainly been screencapping ATHs on bitcoinity.

If only there was some way to permanently store information in a collectively agreed account of history. A public ledger if you will.

None that I know of:(

Could maybe torrent the data.

Yes, although I was making a joke. The thing I was describing (a distributed, consent based understanding of history) already exists. It can be found here:

www.bitcoin.org

[Newbie1022]

He overpaid at a proximate high on a s--- ton of coins he'll never be able to unload at that price ever.

Thanks Newbie912948350, good to know that Bitcoin isn't ever going to 500s, 600s again.

30,000 BTCs discounted for opportunity costs and the time value of money might actually never reach $600-$700, again. Yes, you're are damn right that's what I'm saying. (I actually don't mean this in a hostile way... just energetic way... it would have to reach Gox bubble levels, again, to make that investment shake out in a profit).

Doesn't mean the nominal price won't be higher.

Ridiculous. Unless Bitcoin is supplanted, it can easily reach his 10k target within 5 years.

Also, assuming more adoption and, most importantly, a legal structure that enables vendors who accept Bitcoins to hold them on their balance sheet. There are a lot of ifs and the odds are below 50-50 for a price up to the bubble high. Doesn't mean it won't go up or that people shouldn't buy now... but 10k in 5 years is not an average scenario... it's a higher end speculative scenario (possible, but far from likely).

In some ways it is delightful we don't have as many full on trolls in here. At the same time, this has turned into a total echo chamber of delusion, again.

[N12]

In some ways it is delightful we don't have as many full on trolls in here. At the same time, this has turned into a total echo chamber of delusion, again.

Agreed, this place (and others) has become an echo chamber for bitter ex-bulls (well, pigs) who have been burnt and are now constantly decrying Bitcoin because of their inability to realistically evaluate risks beforehand.

[hdbuck]

He overpaid at a proximate high on a s--- ton of coins he'll never be able to unload at that price ever.

Thanks Newbie912948350, good to know that Bitcoin isn't ever going to 500s, 600s again.

30,000 BTCs discounted for opportunity costs and the time value of money might actually never reach $600-$700, again. Yes, you're are damn right that's what I'm saying. (I actually don't mean this in a hostile way... just energetic way... it would have to reach Gox bubble levels, again, to make that investment shake out in a profit).

Doesn't mean the nominal price won't be higher.

Ridiculous. Unless Bitcoin is supplanted, it can easily reach his 10k target within 5 years.

Also, assuming more adoption and, most importantly, a legal structure that enables vendors who accept Bitcoins to hold them on their balance sheet. There are a lot of ifs and the odds are below 50-50 for a price up to the bubble high. Doesn't mean it won't go up or that people shouldn't buy now... but 10k in 5 years is not an average scenario... it's a higher end speculative scenario (possible, but far from likely).

In some ways it is delightful we don't have as many full on trolls in here. At the same time, this has turned into a total echo chamber of delusion, again.

rofl. fuck you and your legal structures. fuck people. fuck adoption.
there is gentleman, and for the rest there is mastercard.

[600watt]

In some ways it is delightful we don't have as many full on trolls in here. At the same time, this has turned into a total echo chamber of delusion, again.

Agreed, this place (and others) has become an echo chamber for bitter ex-bulls (well, pigs) who have been burnt and are now constantly decrying Bitcoin because of their inability to realistically evaluate risks beforehand.

like the risk of gettin rich while hodling a few years ?

those who got burnt sold too early.